Euro Technical Outlook

Trading above 1.4140 shifts odds in favor of the bullish count in which the decline from 1.4340 is an A-B-C correction that will be fully retraced. Under this count, the rally from 1.3750 is wave 5 of an ending diagonal from 1.2454. The rally from 1.3750 itself is unfolding as a diagonal and price must stay above 1.3887 in order to keep this count valid. The bearish count is not completely eliminated as no rules have been broken (see the alternate numbering) but its prospects are damaged given the time taken up by what would be wave ii. From a trading perspective, ST may want to short here, targeting support at 1.3900.