The EURUSD decline below 13584 may have been wave b of a flat. As such, I can’t rule out a rally above 13842 or even a test of 14029 before the decline resumes. I am not however of the persuasion that the larger trend has turned up. I view the current rally as either wave iv within the decline from the November high or a smaller 2nd wave. Near term, coming under 13645 should be enough to signal resumption of the downtrend.
Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Friday evenings), technical analysis of currency crosses on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forum. He is the author of [I]Sentiment in the Forex Market[/I]. Follow his intraday market commentary and trades at DailyFX Forex Stream. Send requests to receive his reports via email to [email protected].