Euro-Zone Inflation Outlook Falls to the Lowest on Record in May

Euro-Zone preliminary May inflation fell to 0.0% y/y from 0.6% y/y in the previous month. This was below our median forecast of 0.2% y/y, but negative German and Spanish HICP rates earlier this week suggested that the Euro-Zone number could also dip into negative territory. There is no breakdown with the number, but the sharp deceleration in the headline rate in May is partly due to the fact that negative base effects from the later timing of Easter this year pushed up April data and fell out of the equation again in May. Positive base effects from lower energy prices are likely to bring the headline rate down further in coming months, but officials seem confident that this will be a temporary dip into negative territory and council member Draghi said earlier that global deflation threats now appear limited. This means that current low inflation is unlikely to prompt further ECB action.

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