• Euro 1.4450 Resistance Should Prove Formidable
• Japanese Yen Approaches 61.8%
• British Pound Testing 200 day SMA
• Swiss Franc Tests 100% Extension
• Canadian Dollar Pattern Clears Up
• Australian Dollar To Drop To Fibo
• New Zealand Dollar Expanded Flat Underway
Commentary: Near term, expect the EURUSD to challenge congestion near 1.4452 before the pair reverses and drops to a new low (below 1.4330). The drop below 1.4330 should complete wave C (and larger wave 4) of the A-B-C decline from 1.4967. A potential terminus for the decline is where wave C = wave A; at 1.4309. The next 5 to 6 weeks should see larger wave 5 exceed 1.5000.
Strategy: Flat
Commentary: Wave c of the a-b-c correction from 107.20 remains in progress. The next level of potential resistance is the 61.8% of 117.93-107.20 at 113.83, followed by a potential resisting trendline just above 114.00 and then the 78.6% retrace level at 115.63. The rally from 107.20 is wave 2 of larger 3 within the 5 wave bearish cycle from 124.13. While potential does remain for a push to the mentioned resistance levels, the USDJPY is setting up for a major decline.
Strategy: Flat
Commentary: The short term picture in Cable remains clouded so we are again showing the daily chart with the long term channel support, which is defended by the 200 day SMA. We weote yesterday that we are expecting a significant bottom to form in the next week or so, primarily because of the EURUSD structure. This remains our outlook. If price slips below the confluence of the 200 day SMA/channel support then potential support is at the 100% extension of 2.1160-2.0353/2.0831 at 2.0024.
Strategy: Flat
Commentary: The USDCHF is closing in on the 100% extension of 1.0886-1.1327-1.1153 at 1.1594. Given the outlook for bottoms to form in the EURUSD and GBPUSD over the next week or so, we expect a top in the USDCHF near 1.1594. This level was former support as well; and could now be resistance.
Strategy: Flat
Commentary: The short term pattern is finally clearing up. If the USDCAD drops below 1.0026, then the pair will have completed 5 waves lower from the top (1.0248). Under this scenario, we expect price to correctively rally back towards 1.0140. This would offer an opportunity to get aggressively bearish against 1.0248 for a much larger decline.
Strategy: Flat
Commentary: The AUDUSD continues to slide and is likely to continue lower until at least a support shelf which begins with the 200 day SMA at .8517. The next potential support levels are the 61.8% of .7670-.9400 at .8331. We will look for a bottom and reversal near there.
Strategy: Flat
Commentary: We favor the idea that an expanded flat is unfolding (wave b exceeds top of wave v). Wave c of the flat is underway and price must come under .7435 before we can begin to look for a bottom. As such, a bearish bias is warranted until price does decline below this level.
Strategy: Flat