EUR/USD Analysis - 09.04.2025
Dollar Under Pressure from Recessionary Signals
EUR/USD climbed about 80 pips to 1.1040 on Wednesday as the dollar index slipped below 105.5, marking a second day of losses. The U.S. dollar weakened amid growing fears of recession, triggered by President Trump’s sweeping tariffs. China now faces a 104% levy, with Beijing vowing to “fight to the end.” Market sentiment remained cautious as trade negotiations stalled, despite Trump’s outreach to major partners. Concerns that the escalating trade war may tip the U.S. into recession have increased expectations of further Fed rate cuts, weighing on the dollar.
Key resistance is at 1.1100, followed by 1.1150 and 1.1215. Support lies at 1.0900, then 1.0850 and 1.0730.
EUR/USD Analysis - 10.04.2025
Euro Steady as EU Retaliates on Tariffs
The euro hovered around 1.0980 on Thursday, supported by rising trade tensions and renewed political stability in the Eurozone. Sentiment favored the currency after China raised tariffs on all U.S. goods to 84% from 34%, retaliating against Washington’s hike to 104% on Chinese imports. The European Commission also approved retaliatory tariffs on €21 billion worth of U.S. goods, including soybeans, motorcycles, and orange juice. The escalation pushed investors away from typical safe havens like the dollar and Treasuries. Political stability in Germany further supported the euro, as the CDU/CSU and SPD finalized a coalition, clearing the way for Friedrich Merz to become Chancellor next month. The ECB is also expected to cut rates by 25 basis points later this month.
Key resistance is at 1.1020, followed by 1.1100 and 1.1150. Support lies at 1.0880, then 1.0810 and 1.0730.
EUR/USD Analysis - 11.04.2025
EU Tariff Relief Drives Euro Above $1.13
The euro climbed above $1.13, its highest since September 2024, after the EU suspended new U.S. tariffs for 90 days to allow trade talks. This followed President Trump’s move to cut tariffs to 10% for non-retaliating countries while raising Chinese duties to 125%. While easing global slowdown fears, the mixed signals fueled uncertainty. Money markets adjusted ECB expectations, pricing the deposit rate at 1.8% by December, up from 1.65%, and lowered the probability of an April cut to 90%.
Key resistance is at 1.1390, followed by 1.1425 and 1.1500. Support lies at 1.1260, then 1.1180, and 1.1100.
EUR/USD Analysis - 14.04.2025
Dollar Hits 3-Year Low amid Tariff Policy Uncertainty
EUR/USD traded around 1.1390 on Monday after opening lower, while the U.S. dollar index fell to 99.5, its lowest in three years, amid concerns over the U.S. economic outlook and policy uncertainty. The drop followed the Trump administration’s decision to exempt certain tech products from tariffs under the new “reciprocal” trade policy. However, Commerce Secretary Lutnick said these items may still face duties within two months, and Trump confirmed they remain under the 20% Fentanyl Tariffs. Despite a 3% weekly drop in the dollar index and weak consumer sentiment data, Lutnick said he is “not worried” about the dollar.
Key resistance is at 1.1400, followed by 1.1475 and 1.1500. Support lies at 1.1260, then 1.1180 and 1.1100.
EUR/USD Analysis - 15.04.2025
EUR/USD Keeps Steady Amid Policy Reprieve
EUR/USD hovered near 1.1330 Tuesday, while the dollar index edged up toward 100, rebounding from 3-year lows as sentiment stabilized. The recovery followed Trump’s tariff exemptions on tech goods and a possible pause on 25% auto tariffs. However, caution lingered after the Commerce Department launched a national security probe into semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports. Fed Governor Waller called tariff-driven inflation “transitory” and signaled openness to further rate cuts to support growth. The dollar had slumped for three days on policy uncertainty and a broad U.S. asset selloff.
Key resistance is at 1.1400, followed by 1.1475 and 1.1500. Support lies at 1.1260, then 1.1180 and 1.1100.
EUR/USD Analysis - 16.04.2025
EUR/USD Stable as Dollar Slides
The EUR/USD pair hovered near 1.1323 early Wednesday, while the U.S. Dollar Index fell below the 100 mark, approaching its lowest level in nearly three years. Investors remain focused on an upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, as the central bank seeks to support economic growth while managing inflation risks heightened by recent tariff developments. In the Eurozone, industrial production data exceeded expectations, though the ZEW economic sentiment index fell short of forecasts in Tuesday’s releases.
Key resistance is at 1.1400, followed by 1.1475 and 1.1500. Support lies at 1.1260, then 1.1180 and 1.1100.
EUR/USD Analysis - 17.04.2025
EUR/USD Holds Near 1.1370 as Dollar Rebounds on Fed
EUR/USD traded near 1.1370 on Thursday as the US Dollar Index rebounded above 99.5. The recovery came amid speculation over Fed policy and trade tensions. On Wednesday, Fed Chair Powell warned tariffs could raise inflation and slow growth, making rate cuts less urgent. He said the Fed would wait for clearer economic signals. Meanwhile, Beijing may be open to talks, easing some trade concerns. On the data front, US retail sales surged in March, marking the strongest monthly rise in over two years, highlighting consumer strength despite persistent uncertainty.
Key resistance is at 1.1415, followed by 1.1475 and 1.1500. Support lies at 1.1260, then 1.1180 and 1.1100.
EUR/USD Analysis - 18.04.2025
Euro Eases After ECB Cut but Holds Weekly Gains
The euro edged down toward $1.13 on Friday, easing slightly from its highest level since January 2022, after the ECB delivered a widely expected rate cut. The central bank lowered the deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%. This marked the sixth consecutive cut and brought the rate to its lowest level since early 2023. The ECB also removed its previous reference to policy being “restrictive” but warned that rising global trade tensions could weaken the growth outlook.
Despite the pullback, the euro has gained around 5% against the dollar in April. The rally has been fueled by growing doubts about the dollar’s global dominance and increased investor preference for the euro. Additional support came from expectations of higher defense spending in the eurozone, particularly in Germany. On Good Friday, with markets quiet, the euro held steady near 1.1370.
Key resistance is at 1.1415, followed by 1.1475 and 1.1500. Support lies at 1.1260, then 1.1180 and 1.1100.
EUR/USD Analysis - 21.04.2025
EUR/USD Surges to 1.1470 on Dollar’s Three-Year Low
EUR/USD opened the week with strong momentum, climbing to around 1.1470 on Monday morning. This surge came as the U.S. dollar index dropped to a fresh three-year low near 98.6, pressured by rising concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence. Market anxiety intensified following renewed criticism from President Donald Trump, who stated last week that the removal of Fed Chair Jerome Powell “cannot come fast enough,” calling for deeper rate cuts. These remarks added to ongoing market unease already fueled by trade tensions and policy uncertainty under the Trump administration.
Key resistance levels are seen at 1.1530, 1.1600, and 1.1680, while support is located at 1.1400, 1.1260, and 1.1180.
EUR/USD Analysis - 22.04.2025
EUR/USD Holds Firm as U.S. Policy Uncertainty Grows
EUR/USD traded around 1.1530 on Tuesday, while the dollar index remained around 98.4, weighed down by concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence and escalating trade tensions. President Trump called for swift rate cuts and suggested removing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, fueling worries over political influence on monetary policy. The sentiment was further impacted by stalled US-China negotiations and China’s warnings to countries aligning with Washington.
Key resistance is at 1.1550, followed by 1.1600 and 1.1680. Support lies at 1.1400, then 1.1260 and 1.1180.
EUR/USD Analysis - 23.04.2025
Euro Pauses Near 1.1400 as Trade Tensions Ease
The euro is trading near 1.1400, easing after President Trump confirmed he does not plan to remove Fed Chair Powell. The currency also faced pressure from reduced trade war tensions, which supported the U.S. Dollar Index. Markets now await key PMI data from major Eurozone economies and the bloc overall.
Key resistance is at 1.1460, followed by 1.1580 and 1.1680. Support lies at 1.1260, then 1.1200 and 1.1150.
EUR/USD Analysis - 24.04.2025
Euro Holds Ground as Dollar Doubts Linger
The euro hovered near $1.1350 on Thursday, just below its recent peak of $1.15, supported by easing concerns over Federal Reserve independence and growing skepticism about the U.S. dollar’s global dominance. Although the dollar briefly recovered after President Trump reaffirmed support for Fed Chair Powell, the euro gained more than 5% in April. Further support came from Germany’s increased defense spending and expectations of a 25-basis-point ECB rate cut to 2.25%, with additional easing likely due to escalating trade tensions.
Key resistance is at 1.1460, followed by 1.1580 and 1.1680. Support lies at 1.1260, then 1.1200 and 1.1150.
EUR/USD Analysis - 25.04.2025
Trump Reassures on Trade and Fed
The EUR/USD traded near 1.1350 on Friday, while the US Dollar Index rose above 99.5, recovering from earlier losses. The dollar strengthened after President Trump reassured markets that trade talks with China would continue, despite Beijing’s denials. Optimism also grew on reported progress with Japan and South Korea. Earlier, Treasury Secretary Bessent said US-China tariffs must be reduced significantly for real progress, increasing hopes for a deal. Trump also eased monetary policy concerns by stating he never planned to remove Fed Chair Powell. Although Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack mentioned a rate cut in June if needed, renewed trade optimism lifted the dollar.
Key resistance is at 1.1460, followed by 1.1580 and 1.1680. Support lies at 1.1260, then 1.1200 and 1.1150.
