[B]• Euro All-Time High
• Japanese Yen Breakout Looks Real
• British Pound Breaking from Consolidation
• Swiss Franc Remains Bid
• Canadian Dollar Destroying US Counterpart
• Australian Dollar Correction Nearing and End?
• New Zealand Dollar Stalling at 38.2%
[/B]
Commentary: The EURUSD is trading at all-time highs and appears to have more upside potential. The rally from 1.4144 is either wave 3 in the 5 wave bull cycle from 1.4015 or just part of wave 3. Either way, we expect some additional consolidation to be followed by new highs. Potential support is the 38.2% of 1.4144-1.4319 at 1.4253. A bullish bias is warranted as long as price is above 1.4144.
Strategy: Flat
Commentary: We wrote yesterday that “a short term bearish objective is at the 161.8% extension of 117.93-116.17/117.18 at 114.33. Longer term, we are very bearish and expect a drop below 111.59 in the next few weeks.” The decline from 117.18-114.84 is either wave 3 within the 5 wave bear cycle from 117.93 or the first part of wave 3. The rally that unfolded this morning to 115.72 stalled right at the 38.2% of 117.18-114.84 (and former 4th wave). That rally is either completes a 3 wave rally or is just the first part of a larger 3 wave rally. Either way, the longer term structure is bearish and potential resistance is at the 61.8% of 117.18-114.84 at 116.28.
Strategy: Look to get bearish near 116.28, against 117.18, target TBD
Commentary: We are showing the same chart as yesterday because the wave count near term is not very clear. The GBPUSD is breaking through a consolidation that has lasted since 10/1. This as well as the intact trend channel suggest that Cable is likely to test at least 2.0654 soon. A bullish bias is warranted as long as price is above 2.0285.
Strategy: Flat
Commentary: The USDCHF is headed below 1.1623 to complete the larger decline (which is a terminal thrust from a triangle). A drop below 1.1623 would possibly complete 5 waves down from 1.2468 and give way to a reversal and much larger rally. Near term, a small 4th wave may be complete at 1.1724. The short term bearish structure is strong as long as price is below 1.1785.
Strategy: Flat
Commentary: The USDCAD has broken down…again. The next objective now is .9616, which is the 161.8% extension of .9820-.9721/.9776. A decline to there would possibly complete wave 3 within the 5 wave bear cycle from .9820. Consolidation in wave 4 followed by yet another bear leg would then be expected.
Strategy: Flat
Commentary: The AUDUSD is approaching a confluence of Fibonacci levels. The 61.8% of .9077-.8822 is at .8979 and the 100% extension of .8822-.8972/.8838 is at .8988. These are potential reversal levels. From a short EW perspective, the rally from .8822 is clearly corrective and a bearish stance is warranted against .9077.
Strategy: Bearish, against .9077, target below .8822
Commentary: Kiwi is in the exact same position as the AUSUSD. A wave 2 appears to be nearing completion as price has stalled at the 38.2% of the .7785-.7394 decline at .7543. The 50% and 61.8% levels at .7589 and .7635 are potential resistance levels. The reward/risk ratio is not as good with Kiwi (if bearish) since the pair has only retraced 38.2% of the recent decline.
Strategy: Flat
