[B]• Euro Bearish Below 1.4824
• Japanese Yen To 111.50
• British Pound Bearish Below 2.0101
• Swiss Franc Larger 2nd Wave Underway
• Canadian Dollar 1.0248 Defines Trend
• Australian Dollar Approaches Resistance - Look for a Break
• New Zealand Dollar Diverging From Aussie[/B]
SEE A DECRIPTION AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS REPORT FOR THE INDICATORS IN THE TABLE
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Commentary: There is no change from yesterday. “Based on the structure of the decline from 1.4824, we favor what was an alternate scenario, which is in red on the chart. The rally to 1.4823 is now viewed as wave b of an expanded flat within larger wave 2 of the 5 wave rally that began from 1.4310. Minimum expectations are for the decline to come under 1.4569 before the next bull leg begins. Resistance should be strong near 1.4750.”
Strategy: Bearish, against 1.4823, target TBD
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Commentary: The argument is strong that the decline from 114.65 is in 5 waves, and we must respect the bearish potential, which is great. The decline fom 114.65 could be the beginning of wave 3 of larger 3 within the 5 wave bear cycle from 124.13. A break below 107.20 warrants a breakout strategy. Subjectively speaking, we favor a rally to the 111.50 area (about the 50% retrace of 114.65-108.22) in order to complete wave 2 before the next bear leg begins. Near term, aggressive traders may adopt a bullish bias above 108.58 but look to flip near 111.50.
Strategy: Flat
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Commentary: We maintain that “the decline from 2.0101 does not look complete. If the decline from 2.0101 is a 5th wave, then the fall should divide into 5 waves itself.” At this point, the decline from 2.0101 is not in 5 waves. Also, the short term EURUSD bearish bias favors additional GBPUSD losses. A measured objective is at 1.9525. Cable may need to spike above 1.9889 before the next decline begins (this would complete an expanded flat).
Strategy: Bearish, against 2.0101, target 1.9530
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Commentary: After reviewing the charts, we favor the idea that a rally in wave 2 within a 5 wave bear cycle from 1.1594 is underway. Expect this rally to test the 1.1375 area (former 4th wave is at 1.1371 and 61.8% of 1.1594-1.1018 is at 1.1374). This fits with a EURUSD decline to the 1.4500 area before the next leg of dollar bearishness gets underway.
Strategy: Bullish, against 1.1018, target 1.1370
Commentary: Either wave B within the A-B-C correction from 1.0248 (or wave 2 within a 1-2-3-4-5 impulse) is complete or close to complete at 1.0080. Even if price does exceed 1.0080, the next move of consequence is lower towards .9500. The bearish bias is strong as long as price is below 1.0248.
Strategy: Bearish, against 1.0248, target .9500
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Commentary: Last week, we wrote that “the correction from .9400 is either complete at .8749 or close to complete. We expect the next advance to exceed .9400 and possibly test 1.0000 in order to compete a large A-B-C advance of Cycle degree that began in 2001. Near term, the last part of wave 1 is ending as a diagonal which began at .8709. A decline to this level would complete wave 2.” The pair dropped to .8697 Friday before reversing higher. Wave 3 higher may be underway now. If not, then the next level of potential support is at .8664 (Fibonacci).
Strategy: Bullish against .8549, target above .9400
Commentary: Contiuing with our theme that the AUD and NZD may have diverged, we maintain that NZDUSD is about to drop below .7435 to complete a large C wave. The decline from .7937 to .7507 is a 5 wave decline and is either wave 1 down in a 5 wave bear cycle or wave A down in a 3 wave bear cycle (either way…a drop below .7507 is expected). The rally to .7791 is best counted as a 3 wave advance and the 61.8% retrace of .7937-.7507 has held twice.
Strategy: Bearish, from .7791, target below .7435
JTREND is a 4 week rolling pivot. When price is above the rolling pivot, the trend is considered bullish. When price is below the rolling pivot, the trend is considered bearish.
DAILY RSI uses 13 day RSI in order to gauge strength of trend. The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 60. The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 40. If the reading is between 40 and 60, then the reading is Flat.
DAILY STOCHS uses 13 day SLOW STOCHASTICS in order to gauge strength of trend. The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 70. The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 30. If the reading is between 30 and 70, then the reading is Flat.
200 day ?: Slope of the 200 day SMA