[B]• Euro Objective at 1.4955
• Japanese Yen Wave 4 Still In Progress
• British Pound In Limbo
• Swiss Franc at All-Time Low
• Canadian Dollar To Test 1.0000 Already?
• Australian Dollar Working Back to .9100
• New Zealand Resistance Not Until .7730[/B]
Commentary: We hav maintained a bullish stance as the EURUSD is completing a 5th wave rally. The break above 1.4751 confirms that wave 5 is underway. There are two counts we are following and both are bullish. The first treats wave 4 (within the 5 wave bull cycle from 1.4015) as 1.4751-1.4520. This has been the favored count recently. The other count treats wave 4 as a triangle. This count is now favored since a triangle in wave 4 satisfies alternation between waves 2 and 4 (2 is a deep correction and 4 is a shallow). Either way, the count is bullish near term. Identifying exactly when wave 5 began helps us estimate when it might end. Wave 5 would equal wave 1 at 1.4955. This is an intial target.
Strategy: Bullish, move risk to 1.4621 (from 1.4582), target 1.4950
Commentary: Although 109.77 was taken out, we maintain that 111.76 will be exceeded as the rally from 109.60 proves to be the third leg of a more complex correction from 109.12. The rally likely completes larger wave 4 in the 5 wave bearish cycle from 124.13. The rally from 109.60 would equal the 109.12-111.76 rally at 112.25; this is a potential end point for the rally from 109.60
Strategy:Bullish, against 109.60, target 112.00
Commentary: We wrote yesterday that “price is expected near term to exceed 2.0564. Potential resistance is where the rally from 2.0450 would equal the 2.0353-2.0564 rally at 2.0661.” The high today is at 2.0660 but the pair still looks bullish. The next level of resistance would be a reaction high from 11/14 at 1.4732. Still though, we should consider the possibility that the entire decline from 2.1160 is an a-b-c correction that is already complete and that Cable is headed to a new high. A larger bullish outcome is possible as long as price is above 2.0450. The bearish count treats the decline as a series of 1st and 2nd waves. A larger bearish outcome is possible as long as price is below 2.0844. At this point, the pair is in limbo.
Strategy: Flat
Commentary: The USDCHF is in a 5th wave (like the EURUSD) but is coming close to a short term bottom. Within the 5 wave bearish cycle from 1.1894, wave 5 would equal wave 1 at 1.1004 (psychological round number as well). We noted yesterday that the pair is at long term support also, with the 1995 low at 1.1172 and the 2004 low at 1.1286.
Strategy: Flat
Commentary: The USDCAD rally from .9055 has gone without much interruption and may have still more left to the upside near term. Zooming in on the 15 minute chart, the rally from .9703-.9861 is a 5 wave rally, suggesting tha the path remains to the upside. The next level of potential resistance is at the 50% of 1.0866-.9055 at .9961 and the 10/4 high at 1.0015.
Strategy: Flat
Commentary: A complex W-X-Y correction may be unfolding, with wave Y underway now. The rally from .8753-.9068 and decline from .9068-.8758 suggests that either a large flat is unfolding (W-X-Y) or that a triangle is unfolding. In the former case, price is expected to exceed .9068 and possibly test .9153 (Fibo). Under the latter interpretation, price is expected to exceed .8995 but remain below .9068.
Strategy: Flat
Commentary: The Kiwi is a similar position. The rally from .7435-.7675 was in 3 waves, which suggests that the path is to the downside. However, a more complex correction is possible and even seems likely given the structure in the EURUSD (suggests dollar weakness). A complex correction would be expected to end near .7729.
Strategy: Flat
