Here’s a top-down technical perspective on the EURUSD.
On the daily time frame, recent price action is predominantly sideways. The candlesticks printed last week Thursday and Friday indicated a lack of bearish momentum. We may see some bullish move in the early part of this week before a southward turnaround.
The H4 time frame shows that bulls have lately been keenly contesting market influence with bears. The bullish pinbar printed in the second session last Friday may see bulls follow up with further move despite the bearish candlestick printed in the last session. At any rate, such a bullish move is likely to be temporary. But bears have to breach the horizontal support around the 1.10470 area before we can have confidence in a bearish drive.
Yeah, I’m still long from the end of last week, there VarSINE, but this still might be just a short bounce.
Look at Trap TheMarket’s post above from March 31. The price just came off that same bottom channel line again, hope it keeps going to the top line.
Kinda looks like up is counter trend long term. ?
Yes, it did, and thats when I placed the order to catch the price lower, instead of a market order. Thanks, that was helpful. Also looks like still a downtrend, so, I took a profit (on two long positions, actually) this morning at about where the blue line is again, but I didn’t know about the blue line at the time. Am looking to get back in long, maybe! Till something points directly down again.
Didn’t miss all of the trip down to the bottom (that was three days ago,) as I was long the Dollar index a short while, but shorting the blue line would have been better. Hmm.
Hope you have been able to make the most of your analysis.
I operate GPJPY and I noticed a correlation between EURUSD and my pair. Lately, its been on a huge downside, do you believe we are experiencing a short retracement or would this be the beginning of the rally for the bulls?
Based on analysis,support line at 1.1130 has been reached. I dont think that market will have strength to break it in this round, so some rebound would be possible at least to level of 1.13. However, on a long run, there is potential for 1.05 level to be reached, so I am more on a bearish side
Alekxandra, do you pay attention to stochastics on your chart? I cannot see very well if this is RSI, but it shows that it is still not time for bullish move, but it seems more like the market will test level of 1.11 one more time
Yes, of course, I pay attention. RSI pay less attention, it is an auxiliary. EUR/USD was moving down, it is OK. I wrote that EUR/USD was already moving up according to the earlier forecast, and did not promise that EUR/USD will now move up.
EUR / USD may move down to the Kijun line at 1.1230. There I will look for an opportunity to buy. Stochastic is charging for long, almost reached the mark of 20.
Daily
I would agree with you @Alekxandra and @bobart on it heading up as long as it doesn’t break the 1.1200 level. I think if it does, it would be dropping to the supply zone around 1.1300 - 1.1500.
Finally, a good week. Last year was great but this year has been tough.
Even if the Euro falls a bit more over the next week, it looks like the lows might be in for awhile. Hey, until the daily chart starts to show this latest downturn has slowed or stopped I am not going long.
Everyone else has jumped into this thread, I may as well also. Although I would never go long here, don’t be surprised if we get a small PB to the 20 EMA and continuation down. I’ve put the profit target at 1.11257. This is a major support area. I think you’ll get your bounce there.
If you look at the AU and NU pairs, they have followed similar patterns and have already reached support. We’ll probably see them range a bit as they wait for their slow-moving cousin, EU, to catch up.
Short term (Until FOMC) I am scalping short. Beyond FOMC I’m waiting. Longer term (60-90 days) I am Bullish the Eur bc I beleive there will be a rate reduction but not on this week.
MattyMoney, looks like some support around there, so if I can sell it from a higher point (maybe 1.1250) then I will.
Doesn’t the daily chart look like a higher high last week? Well, if it makes a higher low this next week or so, I definitely want to be long there.
We’ll see,
