EURUSD Top Down Analysis

GBPAUD Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair continued the decline started at the beginning of June. On the weekly time frame, price action rejected the monthly pivot two weeks ago for a bearish continuation. However, last week, an attempt by sellers to breach the immediate support around the 1.66478 area did not succeed.

On the H4 time frame, sellers attempted to take control of price action through three price waves to the downside since the beginning of June but the ride southwards has not been smooth; there has been a lot of buyers’ resistance resulting in a series of sideway moves, consolidation and range trading. The most recent price action last week fell within a 137-pip range (in Khaki coloured rectangle). Should the price action break out of the range southwards, the initial target will be the immediate resistance around 1.66570, which may expose the 1.64804 handle. This is a more likely scenario given the technical bias on the weekly time frame. However, an alternative scenario, albeit temporary in nature, will be for price action to move northwards towards the distal part of the the range; perhaps to retest the 1.68392 area before heading southwards.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

[quote=“TrapTheMarket, post:377, topic:103807, full:true”]
GBPAUD Weekly Technical Outlook
…On the H4 time frame, sellers attempted to take control of price action through three price waves to the downside since the beginning of June but the ride southwards has not been smooth; there has been a lot of buyers’ resistance resulting in a series of sideway moves, consolidation and range trading. The most recent price action last week fell within a 137-pip range (in Khaki coloured rectangle). Should the price action break out of the range southwards, the initial target will be the immediate resistance around 1.66570, which may expose the 1.64804 handle. This is a more likely scenario given the technical bias on the weekly time frame. However, an alternative scenario, albeit temporary in nature, will be for price action to move northwards towards the distal part of the the range; perhaps to retest the 1.68392 area before heading southwards…[/quote]

The alternative scenario for an upward move before a southward turn happened about 8 hours ago. See attached H4 chart.

Trade safe and prosper.

[quote=“TrapTheMarket, post:378, topic:103807, full:true”]
…The most recent price action last week fell within a 137-pip range (in Khaki coloured rectangle). Should the price action break out of the range southwards, the initial target will be the immediate resistance around 1.66570, which may expose the 1.64804 handle. This is a more likely scenario given the technical bias on the weekly time frame. However, an alternative scenario, albeit temporary in nature, will be for price action to move northwards towards the distal part of the the range; perhaps to retest the 1.68392 area before heading southwards…[/quote]

Here’s an update on the GBPAUD. The pair has rejected the distal area of the range and has moved southwards for over 190 pips.

Trade safe and prosper.

The next level to watch on GBP/AUD is the 1.6610 barrier as the pair continues the selling pressure as well as the technical indicators.

GBPNZD Weekly Technical Outlook

Price action on this pair has been mainly bearish since August 2015. On the weekly time frame, since August 2015, price action has seen three descending price waves with accompanying pullbacks. The most recent pullback was to around the 23.6 Fib zone of the drop from the high of August 2015, hitting resistance around 1.88392. From that resistance, price action moved southward although the momentum has been limited in the past four weeks. Recent price action breached an inner descending trendline (chocolate colour) from the high of August 2015 but an outer descending trendline (purple colour) is yet to be validated. Should price action continue southward, the initial target is ikely to be the 1.72350 area, which is likely to expose the 1.68730 handle; this was last visited in early February 2017.

On the daily time frame, price action since May has been dominated by sellers. Price action in the past 12 days has been within an area of consolidation, shown in Khaki coloured rectangle. As price is not near the area of value, we may expect a retracement upward before a further southward move.

On the H4 time frame, price action has carved out a descending channel or a floating channel (in purple coour). The most recent price action has been sideways near the resistance trendline of the channel but the candlesticks have been relatively small, an indication of market indecision. A break of the channel to the upside is likely to target the 1.75790 area; which may expose the 1.77620 area, the origin of the descending channel. From a technical perspective, a retracement towards at least the 1.75790 area is a more likely scenario given the fact that price is currently further from the mean value area. The alternative scenario is for price action to break below the current area of consolidation around 1.74325 and continue southward to target the 1.71805 area, the origin of the rally upward on March 2, 2017. For this to happen, however, price action will have to contend with the barrier around the 1.7417 area.

In summary, the technical outlook favours sellers in the medium to longer term.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

GOLD Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has been operating in a ranging price action since February 2017. On the weekly time frame, a clear ascending channel emerged, which peaked around the 1306 area in mid-May. There was a failed attempt by price action to test that area three weeks ago. Last week, a doji-like candlestick with a relatively long tail pushed towards the proximal part of the channel around the 1214 area but retracted. It is likely price action will make another move to hit the lower channel line this week.

On the H4 time frame, price action moved upwards from a support trendline (magenta colour) to validate a resistance trendline from the high of June. The most recent price action saw a bulllsh move on Friday afternoon after a rejection of the resistance trendline by sellers earlier in the day. Should buyers push price action to break the resistance trendline, an initial target northward is likely to be the 1271 area, provided buyers can overcome the immediate minor resistance around the 1261 area. Failure of price action to take out the 1261 area is likely to lead to a southward turnaround to break the support trendline and target the 1240 area, the base of the support trendline. This is a more likely scenario given the weekly technical disposition noted earlier.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper

Just a thought

If you want to trap a market, don’t just jump into a moving market. Study the market and analyse it first. Jumping into a market you were not prepared for or had not analysed, just because of a sudden price movement, could be dangerous. What do you think?

Trade safe and prosper.

EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

Over the past three months, the pair has been largely northbound. On the weekly time frame, price action operated in an ascending channel (chocolate coloured) for much of 2017. The channel was broken to the upside in May 2017 and, thereafter, price action went primarily sideways for the next five weeks. Last week it moved away from its sideways mode and headed north with a relatively large bullish candlestick, falling shy of 1.16159, the high of May 2016 by about 172 pips. Presently, price action is at a resistance zone. A successful break of resistance is likely to expose the 1.16159 area. This area may be a location from which to consider looking for a sell trading opportunity if price action moves there without retracement. Alternatively, as price action is presently far from a mean value area, it may retrace to the immediate minor support around the 1.12690 area.

On the daily time frame, price action is respecting an ascending trendline from the low of March 2017. It has made two ascending price waves with accompanying retracements and a third is in play, which started with momentum last week Thursday but yet to pull back. Much likely the bearish move on Friday may be the beginning of the pullback and may validate the trendline between 1.13205 and 1.12690; which is in confluence with the 50/61.8 Fib zone. Should price action retrace and break the support trendline (navy colour) southward, an initial target is likely to be the 1.11162 area; the base of the most recent rally and the beginning of the third ascending price wave.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

GBPCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has been predominantly on the decline since December 2015. On the weekly time frame, during April and May 2017, price action retraced to 32.8 Fib level of the drop from the high of December 2015 to the low of January 2017. Since then it has remained constrained for a southward operation by a resistance trendline (chocolate colour) from the high of December 2015. The most recent price action in the past two weeks have been sideways and in a support zone.

On the H4 time frame, price action has been largely in consolidation/sideways mode and in a channel (Khaki coloured rectangle) for the most part of June. Presently, price action is in the middle of the channel, somewhat a noman’s land, but the last sessions on Friday saw the buyers getting more influential in the market. Should buyers take price action to the distal part of the channel, perhaps targeting the 1.69750 area, this is likely to present a good sell trading opportunity. Given the technical disposition on the weekly time frame, a sell trading opportunity is more feasible than a buy trading opportunity. A break of the channel southward is likely to initially target the 1.67224 area; this may expose the 1.66367 area, the base of the April 17, 2017 rally.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has been operating in an ascending channel (shown in forest green coloured trendlines) since May 2016. On the monthly time frame, price action hit the support trendline of the channel with a relatively big bearish candlestick last month. This suggests strong sellers’ intent.

On the daily time frame, price action is respecting a resistance trendline (navy coloured) from the high of April 2017. Recent price action saw the sellers more influential but the price has moved far from the mean value area.Thus, we should expect a pullback to retest the trendline or the minor resistance zone around the 1.31680 area. This is more likely the case as the most recent price action is around a support zone.

Price action on the H4 time frame is respecting an inner descending trendline (magenta colour) from the high of June 9, 2017. After about 300 pips to the downside from the most recent descending price wave which started on June 27, 2017, we may expect a pullback before further bearish move continues. The 1.31680 area is very much likely be the zone to look for such a pullback and could retest the inner descending trendline (magenta colour).

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

From a purely technical perspective, an appropriate approach to trading this pair, except for scalpers, is to wait for the pair to make a retracement to test the trendine on the D1 time frame or a retracement into an area of value within the immediate support zone (1.13205 and 1.12690). However, should price action continue its northward move without retracement and reach the 1.16159 area, the high of May 2016, looking for a sell trading opportunity could be considered.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

From a purely technical perspective, it will be far rewarding to wait for price action to retrace to the distal part of the channel on the H4 time frame before taking a sell trade. However, should present price action move to the proximal part of the channel and break out of it, waiting for a retest of the support line now turned resistance before looking for a sell trade should be the way to go.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

You may find it useful to add structure-based trading to your strategy. Here’s a video you may benefit from.

Trade safe and prosper.

The EURUSD is in a consolidation mode, but the technical disposition overall is southwards. However, price action is at the distal part of the range. If the current move up sees price action retesting the immediate resistance at the 1.1480 area, it may expose the 1.1650 handle.

Trade safe and prosper.

EURGBP Weekly Technical Outlook

Price action on this pair has been on the upside since May. On the weekly time frame, price action is respecting an ascending trendline (chocolate colour) from the low of December 2015. Price action has just moved beyond the monthly pivot and then consolidated for over four weeks. This is near a resistance zone around 0.88495. Should price action breach the zone to the upside, a likely target is the 0.90060 area. This area was marked by a consolidation pattern when price action was last there between October and November 2016 before a big drop. This portends that should price action get there again, the area may likely see a turn around in price action. Thus, should price action get to that level, a sell trading opportunity that presents itself is likely to be feasible.

On the H4 time frame, price action has been operating in a horizontal channel or range (bound by magenta-coloured horizontal lines) for much of June and it is presently at the distal part of the range. Although the last sessions on Friday led to a bearish candlestick, the order flow was under the control of buyers. If buyers are able to move price higher in the channel it may target around 0.88750, an overshot area in the channel. This may be followed by a pullback towards a mean value area before any further momentum to the upside can be expected. However, should price action fail to breach the channel to the upside, a southward move to retest support can be expected with an initial target being around the 0.87935 area; which is the origin of the most recent rally.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

As noted last week, over the past three months, the pair has been largely northbound. However, generally, over the the past two years the price action has been within a horizontal channel or range (Khaki colour). On the weekly time frame, during May and June this year, price action went primarily sideways for five weeks. Two weeks ago, it moved away from its sideways mode and headed north with a relatively large bullish candlestick, falling shy of 1.16159, the high of May 2016 by about 172 pips. Last week, an attempt to move price beyond the previous week’s high failed and the ultimate price action resulted in a hammer-like candlestick on the weekly time frame at an area adjoining the monthly pivot. This is a bullish signal but the momentum is weak.

On the daily time frame, the most recent price action was within a significant S/R zone which it could not breach. Price action is respecting a support trendline (navy colour) from the low of April 6, 2017 and we may expect a pullback to the trendline, perhaps around the 1.13280 area, before any further upward move. A successful break of the zone is likely to target the next resistance around the 1.16100 area. However, should price break the trendline southward, a likely target is the immediate support around the 1.12270 area. Such a move would be likely corrective in nature.

On the H4 time frame, price action is operating in a range (bound by two magenta-coloured horizontal lines). Most recent price action has moved upwards and distally, respecting an inner ascending/support trendline with buyers very much in control of the most recent sessions. This move may break the range northward and target the immediate major resistance around the 1.16100 area. A retracement to test the trendline may take place before further northward move gets an increased momentum.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

EURJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has been northbound since January. On the weekly time frame, after the bullish move between January and April, price action was sideways for most of May and June. Two weeks ago, a big bullish candlestick formed, which was shy of the immediate resistance zone around 130.270 by about 160 pips. A bullish candlestic formed last week as a follow-up and hit the resistance zone but could not breach it to the upside. Should price action breach the zone, it will have to contend with a barrier around 131.100/131.133 before it gets to a natural target of the immediate minor resistance around the 132.120 area.

On the daily time frame, price action is respecting an ascending channel (navy blue) formed by the support trendline from the low of April and the high of May. The most recent price action has moved distally towards the resistance trendline with a fair amount of momentum behind it and is around the 61.8 Fib zone of the drop from the high of June 2015 to the low of June 2016. As noted earlier, this move is likely to contend with a barrier around 131.100/131.133 before it gets to a natural target of the immediate minor resistance around the 132.120 area. By that time, price may be too far from the mean value area and a pullback to retest the support trendline may be initiated. However, should price action fail to pullback, the target is likely to be the major resistance zone around the 133.850 area, whch could offer a good opportunity for sellers to move price action southwards. That area will represent 76.4 Fib of the drop from the high of June 2015 to the low of June 2016 and could be seen as a technically natural area of overbought or extension, which is amenable to a turnaround of price action.

On the H4 time frame, price action has moved upwards from a major support trendline (navy colour), and within the ascending channel seen on the daily time frame, to respect an inner support/ascending trendline (magenta colour). The order flow context favours buyers. A flag pattern has formed (bound in saddle brown-coloured lines) which portends a bullish continuation, particularly should price action break out of the flag distally. Nevertheless, a retest of the inner trendline (magenta colour) is still possible; this may extend to target the immediate horizontal support around the 127.200 area, near the base of the origin of the flag.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

Here’s an update on the EURUSD in the attached H4 chart.

As predicted on Sunday, price retraced and retested the trendline before it headed northwards.

Trade safe and prosper.

[quote=“TrapTheMarket, post:391, topic:103807, full:true”]
EURGBP Weekly Technical Outlook

Price action on this pair has been on the upside since May. On the weekly time frame, price action is respecting an ascending trendline (chocolate colour) from the low of December 2015. Price action has just moved beyond the monthly pivot and then consolidated for over four weeks. This is near a resistance zone around 0.88495. Should price action breach the zone to the upside, a likely target is the 0.90060 area. This area was marked by a consolidation pattern when price action was last there between October and November 2016 before a big drop…

…Trade safe and prosper. [/quote]

Here’s an update on EURGBP as on the attached H4 tme frame.

As predicted on Sunday, buyers have taken the price beyond the channel and headed northward. How far can it go before a turnaround southwards? I will be watching the 0.90060 area.

Trade safe and prosper.

Currently on its way to 1.15 unfortunately I closed out my position at 1.134 which I thought was the right decision…