Here’s how I plan to trade this pair.
I am bearish on this pair. Should price action offer a sell trading opportunity around the present location, which is a minor flip zone on the H4 time frame, I will enter a sell trade. Otherwise, I will wait for price to retrace to an area of technical value, much likely to the area between 1.25500 and 1.25900 (bound by red coloured horizontal lines on the H4 chart) before looking for a sell trading opportunity.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Technical Update on USDCAD
Patience is important for success in this business. Here’s an update on the USDCAD. As you can see in the attached H4 chart, price action retraced exactly into the area of value I planned to trade from based on my weekly analysis. In fact, price action formed a bearish pinbar covering that same zone I targeted. But it took quite a while for this to materialize. I never chase price. If price went further without retracement so be it.
I am not always right. Trade safe and prosper.
We can expect USDJPY to bear southward. Technically, based on the weekly time frame, the pair is on a retracement from the swing down from the high of June 2015 to the low of June 2016. In fact, a resistance trendline from the high of June 2015 is still very much intact.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
EURGBP Weekly Technical Outlook
The pair has disposed northward since six months ago. Although last month there was a southward correction, the northward orientation is still very much intact. On the weekly time frame, price action is respecting a support trendline (chocolate colour) from the low of November 2015. However, current price action is operating in an ascending channel with a resistance trendline (purple colour) from the high of March 2017 and the support trendline from the low of November 2015. Two main price waves have formed in the channel and a third price wave is yet to form as the price action of the past four weeks has been in a consolidation. Besides, price action is currently at a location which has served as a significant S/R zone for a couple of times in the past. And there is a counter trendline (red colour) from the price action since August 2017. If price action respects this counter trendline next week, this may hinder further northward move. The 0.87710 area is a likely target for bears.
On the daily time frame, price action is respecting a support trendline (navy colour) from the low of September 2017. This support trendline, together with the counter trendline (red colour) seen on the weekly time frame, formed a triangle pattern for price action on the daily time frame. Notice that there was a 50 Fib retracement of the drop from the high of August 29, 2017 to the low of September 27, 2017. The short-term technicals are in support of a southward disposition of price action. This may see the bears target the immediate support around the 0.87710 area.
On the H4 time frame, price action has been operating in an ascending channel (magenta colour) since September 2017. An upper channel gave way to a lower channel last week after two price waves were formed in it. Two price waves have since formed in the lower channel. The last session on Friday resulted in a doji-like candlestick and we may have to wait for clarity of price action in the early part of next week. Price action may result in a pullback into the channel to the 0.89700 area before a southward turnaround. But, should price action break the support channel line, a likely target for bears is the major support around the 0.87710 area. However, bears may have to contend with the barrier in the 0.88830 area before this target is reached.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
EURJPY Weekly Technical Outlook
The pair has been disposed northward since April 2017. On the weekly time frame, price action has moved further northward from respecting an outer support trendline (forest green colour) to respecting an inner support trendline (chocolate colour), denoting an increase in northward momentum. A descending trendline (black colour) from the high of November 2014 is acting as resistance. Price action in the past four weeks have been in consolidation but last week a relatively bullish candlestick was formed. Any follow-through will lead to the break of the resistance trendline (black colour) and may target the 136.190 area, the immediate horizontal resistance zone. This area was last visited by price action in October 2015. The technicals are in support of further northward move.
On the daily time frame, price action is respecting the ascending trendline (chocolate colour) seen on the weekly time frame. In fact, price action is operating in an ascending channel (bound by chocolate-coloured lines) and two price waves have formed in the channel; a third price wave is bearing northward. This may target the resistance trendline (black colour) seen on the weekly time frame and extend to the next horizontal resistance around the 136.190 area. However, an immediate barrier is around the 134.400 area.
Price action on the H4 time frame is disposed northward, reflecting the direction of the third price wave in the ascending channel seen on the daily time frame. However, an immediate barrier to the move is located around the 134.346 area. Should this barrier hold we may see a retracement of price action or a sideways operation turnaround at that location. This location is more than 200 pips below the resistance trendline seen on the weekly time frame but aligned with the S/R zone which was last visited by price action on September 22, 2017. Therefore, price action may be expected to go beyond that level after a period of retracement or sideways operation. But it is important to note that this location is around the 61.8 Fib retracement zone of the drop from the high of December 2014 to the low of June 2016 and is susceptible to a southward turnaround. Although a support trendline (blue colour) is still being respected by price action on the H4 time frame, a northward trade is likely to be for a limited profit until clarity in price action is seen during next week.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
I am neutral on this pair. There is need to step aside for a while in the early part of next week for clarity of price action and market direction. However, if price action retraces to around the 0.89700 area this may offer an opportunity to look for a sell trade.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
I will wait on the sideline until there is clarity of price action and market direction on this pair. Technically, price action is at a crossroads; not much to trade for northward, and a southward trade is not technically supported. Presently, there is little to gain by trading northward and there will need be a huge retracement before a buy trade could be taken. Any immediate southward trade is not likely to yield much and may be risky as the market structure on higher time frames (monthly and weekly) is slightly in favour of bulls. I am speaking as a swing trader.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
NZDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
The pair has been operating in a channel (bound by navy coloured lines) since August 2015. On the weekly time frame, price action has formed two price waves within thechannel. The channel was broken southward during the first week in October 2017. Since then, price action has been under the control of bears. Current price action is at significant S/R zone. Last week, an indecision candlestick was formed in the zone but the technical favour a bearish disposition. Should there be a bearish continuation this week, a likely targetof bears is the 0.66845 area.
On the daily time frame, a resistance trendline from the high of September 21, 2017 is still intact. However, price action has moved too far from an area of value and we may expect a pullback to the upside before the bearish mood is continued. Last week Friday, price action on the daily time frame resulted in a bullish candlestick. This may result in a pullback to an area of value before a southward continuation. I will be watching any pullback to the area between 0.69437 and 0.70415 for opportunity of a sell trade. This area is bound by magenta coloured horizontal lines on the attached daily chart.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
The pair has been operating in an ascending channel since March 2017. On the weekly time frame, the channel was breached southward by price action during the third week of September 2017. A period of sideways operation followed for three weeks before a bearish move was begun last week. The technicals are disposed for a bearish continuation. The 1.14205/1.15040 zone is the immediate support and may be a magnet for bears.
On the H4 timeframe, price action has been ranging (area bound by magenta coloured horizontal lines) since late September 2017. Last week Thursday, price action broke the range southward. But the last session on Friday saw the bulls pushing price back northward. If the bulls succeed in this move in the early part of this week, we may see price action retesting the range before any southward turnaround. I will be interested in a retracement to the 50/61.8 Fib zone of the most recent swing down; from where I will look for a sell trading opportunity.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
After the drop of price from the high of May 2014, on the weekly time frame, price action on this pair since February 2015 to December 2016 has been consolidating. A retracement of price action to the 50 Fib level of the drop from the high of May 2014 to the low of December 2016 was seen on this pair in September 2017. Thereafter, price action has turned southward respecting a resistance trendlne (chocolate colour) from the high of September 2017. A trendline line from the low of January 2017 (navy colour) is in play. The most recent price action has been bearish and has breached the monthly central pivot. The technicals on the weekly time frame support a southward move.
On the daily time frame, a head-and-shoulder pattern has emerged from the price action of July 27 to October 26, 2017. After a break of the neckline (magenta colour), the most recent price action has been consolidating and a further southward move can be expected to follow. The natural target for such southward move is the 1.13210 area, which is around the immediate major support but this may not be smooth sailing as a lot of barriers are on the way.
On the H4 time frame, price action which has been operating in an ascending channel since March 2017 started bearing southward in a descending channel in September 2017. Last week, the most recent price action consolidated against the impulsive southward move and can be expected to give way to a bearish continuation. The technicals on the H4 time frame favour further southward move. A break of the channel support is likely to target the 1.13210 area.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
GBPCAD Weekly Technical Outlook
After a drop from the high of January 2016 to the low of January 2017, the pair retraced to the 38.2 Fib zone in April 2017 and consolidated in that area for a while before it bore southward. A resistance trendline on the monthly time frame (red colour) from the high of January 2016 is still very much respected.
On the daily time frame, price action has moved further downward and below the resistance trendline (red colour) seen on the monthly timeframe. It is now respecting an inner resistance trendline (chocolate colour) from the high of May 25, 2016. A trendline (navy colour) from the low of September 6, 2017 is acting as support. This support trendline has held after two attempts by price action to break it. A third attempt to break the support trendline was made last week Friday but the bulls managed to hinder such attempt. Should price action break the support trendline, a likely target is the 1.62220 area. Otherwise, price action may retrace upward to retest the 1.71185 area, the origin of the most recent swing down. This may expose the 1.72960 area, the immediate resistance zone.
It is apparent on the H4 time frame that price action on this pair is operating in an ascending channel. Two price waves have been formed within the channel and a third is bearing southward. Given that the impulsive move on the daily time frame is southward, we may expect a southward continuation to be the outcome of a break of the channel. The technicals on the H4 time frame are in favour of bears. An immediate target for bears is the 1.63740 area, the immediate minor horizontal support on the H4 time frame. This may expose the 1.62360 area, which is a major support zone. However, should price action fail to breakout of the channel southward, we may expect price action to retrace towards the channel resistance, with an initial target around 1.68430 area; which may extend to the 1.69220 area.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
I am bearish on this pair. I will wait for price action to break out of the channel support on the H4 time frame before looking for a sell trading opportunity. However, should price action retrace upward, I will wait for price action to reject an area of value around the immediate resistance before looking for a sell trading opportunity. I will not look to taking a buy trading opportunity because the bigger picture disposes southward.
Trade safe and prosper.
I am bearish on this pair. I will wait for price action to break out of the channel support on the H4 time frame before looking for a sell trading opportunity. However, should price action retrace upward, I will wait for price action to reject an area of value around the immediate resistance before looking for a sell trading opportunity. I will not look to taking a buy trading opportunity because the bigger picture disposes southward.
Trade safe and prosper.
Please bear in mind that 5% of teh population cannot tell the difference between a Red / Green / Chocolate line on a chart - so WHoosht - Over the head ! 
PS - I AM one of those x
What more can I say? What is important is to read and understand the price action and how it can guide your trading towards success.
Trade safe and prosper.
The technical perspective on the USDCAD disposes further southward in my humble opinion.
Trade safe and prosper.
USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook
The pair has maintained a bearish disposition for quite a while. On the weekly time frame, price action is operating around the 50 Fib zone of the swing down from the high of May 2017 to the low of September 2017. A resistance trendline (red colour) is still being respected by price action. The order flow context is largely under the influence of bears although the bulls took control of the retracement. The candlesticks formed in the past three weeks saw the bears taking charge of affairs and we may see further bearish continuation in the days ahead.
On the H4 time frame, price action has broken an inner ascending trendline (magenta colour) and it is now bearing southward respecting a resistance trendline (forest green colour). Price action has moved southward within a channel formed by this resistance trendline and a support trendline from some of the recent lows but it is now located around a minor support area on the H4 time frame; this location is in confluence with the support provided by an ascending trendline (navy colour) from the low of September 8, 2017. We may see price action consolidate in this area for a while or pull back to retest the resistance trendline (upper forest green coloured trendline) before a bearish continuation. A break of support is likely to target the 1.25520 area. This may extend to the 1.24370 area, the next support on the H4 time frame.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
The pair has been operating in an ascending channel (bound in chocolate coloured lines) on the weekly time frame since April 2017. Effective six weeks ago, price action has broken southward from this channel and is now operating in a south-bound channel (bound in navy coloured lines). Last week, the bulls managed to push the price northward, resulting in a a bearish rejection candlestick and they may succeed in pushing price to retest the immediate resistance around the 1.18440 area. A turnaround of price action is likely to either result in a bearish continuation or a period of sideways operation because the candlestick formed three weeks’ ago is currently engulfing the two candlesticks formed after it; thus acting as a master candlestick. Furthermore, it should be noted that the current price action is located around the 38.2 Fib zone of the swing up from the low of April 2017 (not shown in chart); thus we may have to wait for clarity of price action before entering a trade.
On the daily time frame, price action is operating in an area (bound by magenta colored horizontal lines) that has been a strong resistance zone since 2015. This zone was breached to the upside for some days in August and September 2017 but has since remained resistant. The most recent price action last week was bullish and we may expect a retest of the resistance (around 1.18645) before any southward turnaround. An ascending trendline (red colour) from the low of April 10, 2017 is acting as support. Should price action break this trendline southward, this may expose the next horizontal support around the 1.14485 area as a target of bears. Thus, it will be a good strategy to wait for price to break this support trendline southward before looking for a sell trading opportunity. Nevertheless, a rejection of the resistance line of the descending channel (navy colour) southward would offer a feasible sell trading opportunity.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Price action on this pair has been operating in that zone for quite a while and still remains in a sideways mode on the D1. The attached is a technical update. The outlook is still in favour of bulls but the momentum is weak and we may expect a pullback. Note the support trendline (red colour) which may need be retested before further northward move gains momentum.
Trade safe and prosper.
From my top-down technical analyses of the pairs on my watch list, the NZD is weakest among the majors.
Trade safe and prosper.
