The XAUUSD market is still disposed positively but bears are becoming increasingly influential. On the weekly time frame, four weeks ago, bears rejected the 1558 multi-year resistance zone. There was a bearish follow-up in the subsequent two weeks. But last week, bulls pushed price action northwards leading to the printing of a bullish pinbar. Technically, we should expect a bullish follow-through in the early part of this week.
Price action on the daily time frame is disposed positively and a rising trendline (red) is in play as support. Last week Friday, the market printed a bullish candlestick which lifted price operation above a minor congestion area. Although we may see a bullish continuation in the early part of this week, there are a few barriers that may hinder any bullish momentum. A breakdown of the rising trendline (red) on a daily closing basis may give impetus to a southward drive.
In the past six weeks, EURGBP price action has disposed southwards. However, recently, on the weekly time frame, the southward momentum has been waning.
Technicals on the daily time frame favour bears. But, as price action entered the 0.88150 minor support area, bulls pushed back to influence a northward retracement. Nevertheless, such a move is likely to be temporary in nature. The immediate major horizontal support is at the 0.87630 area.
A falling trendline (red) is in play on the H4 time frame. This may be influential as resistance in the foreseeable future. Presently, price action is disposed northwards but may meet resistance at a value area, such as 0.88920 or 0.89650, for a southward turnaround.
On the weekly time frame, the EURUSD price action is still disposed southwards within a falling wedge (blue). However, there is limited southward momentum as price action remains ambivalent as it nears the wedge support trendline. The bearish candlestick printed four weeks ago is still influential as a control or master candlestick for the subsequent three candlesticks. Its high, around 1.11380, may be a target for any bullish move, particularly as it is in confluence with a congestion zone which may act as resistance. We should also notice a falling minor trendline (black), which is in play as resistance to recent price action.
Recent price action on the daily time frame is rather choppy. As the major technical outlook is bearish, a feasible sell trade would need to await a significant northward pullback, perhaps to the 1.11380 area or the resistance trendline of the falling wedge (blue) seen on the weekly time frame.
Hi - thanks for this interesting forecast and entry advice. Can you explain your rule for drawing trend lines? For example, on the upper EURUSD 1w chart you’ve cut some wicks and not others. How do you decide which to cut and which to leave uncut?
Thank you for your encouraging comment. Regarding the wedge trendlines, the important thing for me is to get the upper or resistance trendline to touch key swing highs. Then copy it to the lower end or support area to touch at least two swing lows. We don’t need to touch all the wicks. Generally we regard those trendlines as zones. For a rising wedge, we start with the support trendline.
I’m trying to understand the basics about how people understand technical analysis. Trend lines would seem to be among the most basic of issues. So I apologize if I’m asking rudimentary/annoying/meaningless questions.
With this in mind, can I ask – how do you determine “key swing highs [or lows]”?
It comes with practice. You may look at the wedge resistance trendline in the EURUSD weekly chart you alluded to. Certain points stick out clearly from others while others are insignificant. Those that stick out and are clearly obvious will be the ones to pay particular attention to. Practice identifying points where price action pulls back to and highlight the major ones.
Thank you, again. It appears the short answer to my original question (“Can you explain your rule for drawing trend lines?”) is that you don’t have a rule. Or, perhaps, just not one you can/want-to explain.
T[quote=“TrayDader0001, post:965, topic:103807, full:true”]
Thank you, again. It appears the short answer to my original question (“Can you explain your rule for drawing trend lines?”) is that you don’t have a rule. Or, perhaps, just not one you can/want-to explain.
That’s fine. Thanks again for your replies.
[/quote]
I do have a rule and I have told you. At any rate, there are traders who don’t use the same rule. Certain traders use the bodies of candlesticks and don’t care about the wicks. Some use mainly the wicks, I use significant wicks and candlestick bodies. Whatever you use, being consistent is the key thing.
The GBPCHF market is presently operating at a horizontal support and resistance area. On the weekly time frame, price action had penetrated a multi-year low around 1.17120 eight weeks ago. From there the market experienced a bullish surge to the broken-down horizontal support around 1.24360 where a shooting star formation was printed two weeks ago. Last week, the market printed a bearish candlestick which is a technical follow-up of the shooting star. We may expect a bearish continuation this week.
On the daily time frame, price action has moved southwards of the 50 Fib retracement of the down leg from 1.33770 to 1.16740. In the last five days, the market has primarily printed bearish candlesticks as a follow through of the bearish engulfing candlestick printed two Fridays ago. We should expect further bearish move this week after a sideways operation as price action is presently located at a minor congestion area.
After two years, eight weeks ago, the GBPCAD market returned to the 1.58550 demand zone from where it rallied northwards in September 2017. On the weekly time frame, seven weeks ago, price action rallied northwards from the area and, two weeks ago, entered a horizontal resistance zone around 1.66810. Last week, a bearish engulfing candlestick was printed in the area and, technically, we may see a bearish continuation this week.
Presently, price action is located at a minor support around 1.62720 on the daily time frame. This is also an area where a bullish rally started from on September 13 and the area is in confluence with a rising trendline (blue). Technically, we may see a brief pullback before any southward continuation. A breakdown of the rising trendline is likely to give impetus to a southward drive.
On the H4 time frame, presently, price action is sideways at a confluence of supports. We may see a northward pullback to the immediate minor resistance area around 1.63370/1.64080 (bound by magenta horizontal lines) before a southward continuation.
Since the XAUUSD market entered the multi-year horizontal resistance around 1524.83/1555.10 seven weeks ago, price action has been rather sideways. But there is money to be made in both direction as the last few weeks have shown. On the weekly time frame, the 1482.26/1535.63 zone (bound by magenta horizontal lines) has seen much of the consolidation and acting as a consolidation channel.
On the H4 time frame, recent price action has turned southwards within the ‘consolidation channel’ (bound by magenta horizontal lines) seen on the weekly time frame but bears are not totally in control as the market gets closer to the lower boundary of the channel. Price action has rejected the lower boundary of the channel a couple of times and we may see a northward move, perhaps to the 1515.20 area, before bears become more influential. Technically, we are likely to see a southward drive after this pullback.
The EURUSD market has been disposed negatively for quite a while. On the weekly time frame, the market is respecting a falling trendline (red) traceable to the high of January 2018. However, there has not been a smooth bearish momentum. Price action has been grinding southwards in a consolidating manner. Presently, price action has entered a significant demand area, around 1.09400, which it last traversed northwards in May 2017. Technicals on the weekly time frame favour the bears.
The daily time frame shows recent price action operating within a falling channel (blue). Last week Thursday and Friday, price action printed two indecision candlesticks. Based on the recent technical patterns we may see a northward pullback to an area of value, such as the channel resistance trendline or the 1.11300 horizontal resistance (magenta line), before a southward turnaround.
The NZDUSD market is disposed negatively. On the weekly time frame, price action is operating in a falling channel (blue). Last week, a bullish pinbar was printed around the 0.62310 multi-year low traceable to September 2015. We may see a bullish follow-through which may target the high of the bullish candlestick printed five weeks ago. It is aligned with the immediate horizontal resistance around 0.64480. Should bulls breach that area, we may see them target the 0.66300 area; which is the 61.8 Fib retracement of the most recent downleg.
On the daily time frame, the bearish momentum has declined and price action is in a northward mode. The first possible value area we can expect price action to retrace to is the immediate horizontal resistance around the 0.64480/0.64600 area. Should that area be breached by bulls, the 0.65750 area is likely to be a barrier to further bullish drive.
On the H4 time frame, recent price action is disposed northwards in a spiking channel (magenta). Presently, market operation is at a minor horizontal resistance and the technicals are still disposed northwards. Although I am bearish NZDUSD, I still expect further northward move and will not enter a sell trade at the present location of price action. I will wait for further northward move and a feasible sell trading setup at an area of value, such as the 0.64480 area. In the meantime, I will step aside from this market.
The AUDUSD market is in consolidation with a southward mode. On the weekly time frame, price action is operating in a falling channel (blue). Nine weeks ago, market operation penetrated the 0.66600 horizontal support zone that was last traversed northwards in October 2018. Since then, price action has retested the area three times. Last week, bulls lifted price action above the area after a bearish drive leading to the printing of a bullish pinbar. Technically, we may see a further northward push, perhaps to the immediate horizontal resistance around 0.67680, before a southward turnaround.
AUDUSD price action printed a morning star pattern on the daily time frame between Wednesday and Thursday last week. There was a bullish follow-up on Friday. Recent technical patterns have seen southward turnarounds after a northward retracement to the 50 and 61.8 Fib zone. Technically, the next such retracement is likely to fall between 0.66870 and 0.69290 (bound by magenta horizontal lines). I am bearish AUDUSD but I will await such a retracement to the 50/61.8 Fib zone of the most recent downleg before looking for a sell trading opportunity.
Nine weeks ago, GBPCHF market operation descended to the low of 2016 around the 1.16740 area before making a strong bullish turnaround. Since then, on the weekly time frame, price action has printed primarily bullish continuation candlesticks. Three weeks ago, price action entered the 50 Fib retracement zone of the downleg from the May 2019 high to the low of August 2019, which was the 1.16740 area. Then two weeks ago, price action printed a bearish candlestick at the 50 Fib retracement level, which is around the 1.25000 area. Last week, bulls struggled to regain control but failed to close above the high of the bearish candlestick even though it was initially breached. We may see some sideways of price action early this week. A break above the 1.25000 area will likely see bulls target the 1.27300 area, which is in confluence with the 61.8 Fib retracement of the recent downleg. However, should bulls fail to break above the 50 Fib zone, we may see a southward turnaround with bears likely to target the 1.19240 area, which is a significant horizontal support.
The GBPCHF daily time frame shows a market primarily disposed southwards. Presently, the market is technically in a consolidation mode within an expanding rising wedge (magenta). Price action is located at a confluence of support; the wedge support area and the 1.22700 horizontal support area. But the area is witnessing sideways of price action. Any break above that area is likely to lack a bullish momentum. A break below the wedge support on a daily closing basis will likely give impetus to a bearish drive, perhaps with bears targeting the 1.19240 horizontal support area. I will see any northward move as an opportunity to look for a feasible sell trade setup. Any southward move at the present level will not be attractive to me. I will await a northward correction first before looking for a sell trading opportunity.
The weekly time frame shows a EURUSD market consolidating along a falling channel (blue). Last week, the market printed a bullish candlestick with a low shadow. This happened in a support zone that was last visited in May 2017. The recent candlestick prints in the area show a consolidation but with a slight bullish mood. However, any further bullish move is likely to meet resistance around the 1.10980 area.
Recent price action on the daily time frame is operating in a narrow falling channel (magenta) within the bigger channel (blue) seen on the weekly time frame. Presently, it is disposed northwards – bulls having dominated much of price action last week. Should bulls maintain their influence, we may see them take price action further northwards. However, the 1.10990 horizontal resistance is likely to hinder a northward drive. Thus, we are likely to see a southward turnaround in the area or even at the resistance trendline of the inner falling channel (magenta).
A spiking channel (black) can be seen on the H4 time frame as bulls are presently taking price action northwards within the falling channel (magenta) seen on the daily time frame. Looking left, we may expect bulls to target the high of the bullish candlestick printed on September 12, 2019; this is around the 1.10780 area. But, technically, a breakdown of the spiking channel will result in a bearish drive with the 1.08830 inception area an initial target.
The bullish run on the XAUUSD weekly time frame has given way to a falling flag or channel (blue). Much of the price action within the channel has been bearish. Last week, the market printed a long-tailed bearish candlestick around the 1489.45 horizontal support, which indicates a bullish influence. But the topping formation by recent price action indicates a bearish rejection of the zone. Thus, we may have to await what happens within the channel in the early part of this week.
On the daily time frame, price action is sideways within the falling channel (blue) seen on the weekly time frame. Notice that price action is trading below a rising trendline (red) traceable to May 2019 to respect a recent outer rising trendline (magenta). A break-down of the outer trendline ( magenta) will likely result in a southward momentum which may target the 1438 horizontal support zone. Should the trendlne hold, we may see bulls take price action towards the channel resistance trendline or the 1534 horizontal resistance zone.
On the H4 time frame, a bullish pin bar and a hammer were printed in the last two sessions on Friday. Technically, this will likely see bulls take price action further northwards. However, the 1508/1518 zone (bound by green horizontal lines) is a horizontal resistance zone and may hinder a northward momentum.
The general outlook of the GBPUSD market is bearish but with a bullish momentum. On the weekly time frame, price action is operating within a falling channel (blue). Presently, bulls are taking market operation towards the channel resistance trendline, a breach of which may expose the channel overshoot trendline (magenta).
On the daily time frame, upon the print of an inverted hammer at the support trendline of the failing channel (blue) seen on the weekly tie frame on Wednesday, bulls took the initiative to take price action frther northwards within he channel. Presently, price action is a located a few pips below the next horizontal resistance around 1.27960. The area is proximal to the 61.8 Fib zone of the most recent downward swing from the high of 1.31757 to the low of 1.20221. Such an area is amenable to a southward turnaround. I am bearish GBPUSD.
Recent price action on the GBPUSD H4 time frame is parabolic and far from the mean. We may expect a southward turnaround at the early part of this week.
The EURUSD market continues its consolidation along a falling channel (blue) on the weekly timeframe. Recently, bulls have made several attempts to trade above the mod-area of the channel but their attempts have been futile. This is an indication that the technicals still favour bears. It is likely to take a bullish breach of the high (1.11630) of the bearish candlesticks printed seven weeks ago for a probable test of the channel resistance trendline to materialize. Nevertheless, such a move is likely to be temporary. It should be noted that the market is operating within a multi-year support zone, around 1.09120) from which it rallied in May 2017.
On the H4 time frame, price action is operating at the 78.6 Fib retracement zone of the downleg from 1.11088 to 1.08780. Technically, we can expect a turnaround at the level or a slowdown of bullish momentum. Looking left, we can see that price action is located near the high of the massive bullish candlestick printed on August 12, 2019 and the market has printed topping candlesticks in the area on Friday, with a bearish print at the close of the session.
