The pair has been in a down trend since July 2014 and made a course correction in December 2015. Since then, price moved in an ascending channel and climaxed in a 50.0 Fib retracement with a pin bar/shooting star on September 4, 2016 which rejected the monthly pivot. Price is now on a descent but still within the immediate weekly support zone and was in restraint by the 20 EMA. On the daily time frame, price is respecting an inner trendline (in magenta colour) and the technicals support further southward move. Recent price action on the 4H time frame indicates a strong bullish influence. As the market is at the lower part of the weekly support zone, there may be a push to retest the distal part around 0.72142 or the trendline (in magenta colour), probably before a further southward drive.
The GBPNZD has continued to respect the trendlines on the weekly and daily time frames to the downside. It should be interesting to see how it reacts to the 61.8 Fib level on its pullback. See attached 4H chart.
AUDUSD is operating in a range - within a descending channel. It is now at the upper extreme of the channel. You can get a better picture of it from your 4H chart. Trade safe.
Using a top-down approach to trading will be helped by undertaking a weekly scan and analysis of the pairs on your watch list. This has been a major change to the way I track and stalk the market since the beginning of the year. Trade safe.
I will not be trading the EURUSD this week. Instead, I will look for a good opportunity to trade EURJPY to the downside during the week. Here’s my perspective on EURJPY.
The pair is disposed southwards. On the weekly time frame, the pair is respecting an inner trend to the downside while in a sideways mode. The last two candles formed an inside bar and a break of the downside is likely to confirm the continuation of the downtrend. Whereas a break to the upside is likely to be a retest of the nearby weekly resistance zone (around 116.70) initially but with a possible target of the outer trendline which is proximal to the next weekly support zone around 120.900. On the daily time frame, the pair has been operating within a horizontal channel with a range of about 340 pips since July 2016. The most recent order flow indicates a downward move from the upper part towards the lower part of the channel.
I remain bearish on cable. Here’s why, representing my perspective on the GPBUSD.
The pair has remained largely on the descent. On the weekly time frame, price continued to respect the inner trend line and the order flow is largely influenced by the bears. However, last week saw a weakening of momentum as the bulls resisted attempt by the bears to take out the low of the long-tailed bearish candle formed two weeks ago. The daily time frame showed that the bulls had been influential last week as they pushed price up a bit but the overall sentiment favoured the bears. But since the last four daily candles formed triple inside bars in a downtrend context there is a high probability that the downtrend will continue. Trade safe.
If you are tracking the USDCAD, note that the pair is trading within a channel. If price fails to break the lower trendline of the inner ascending channel (navy colour) on the attached daily chart - there is likely to be a further upward move to retest the upper trendline. The channel is also clear on the 4H tf. Trade safe
EURJPY is now on an upward retracement within the channel on the 4H time frame. The immediate target is likely to be the upper trendline of the channel, which is proximal to the 76.4 and 61.8 Fib levels. I may be wrong. Trade safe and well.
The bearish mood is likely to supervene on EURUSD this week. On the weekly timeframe, although the horizontal channel is still in play, the order flow is largely dominated by the bears and key support zones have been broken. Recent bearish price action is disposing towards a further target downside.
The trend is primarily upwards but the sentiment of the immediate price action is for a retracement to the downside. On the weekly time frame, the pair has been on an upward trend since November 2015. It has completed two price waves to the upside. A third price wave was being completed but for the fact that the pullback (the B-C or 2-3 move) was not conclude last week. The price is still at the 32.8 Fib retracement level. Much likely the pullback will continue and target somewhere around the 50.0 and 61.8 Fib levels, a zone that is proximal to the immediate weekly support zone (0.88118 - 0.87011). Last week, a bearish rejection candle was formed which reinforced the bearish mood earlier created two weeks ago by a long tail doji.
On the daily time frame, the pair has been respecting an upward trend since September 2016 (magenta colour) but since October the mood has been bearish, the price favouring a corrective push which is respecting a counter trendline (dark blue colour). This is in agreement with the observation on the weekly time frame, very much likely price will test the 50.0 or 61.8 Fib level before any further drive to the north. Any break to the upside may target the immediate weekly resistance zone around 0.90946 or beyond.
On the 4H time frame, a bearish mode supervenes. A constellation of bearish candles formed around downward-sloping key EMAs on my system. Since the market structure on the 4H time frame still respects the daily upward trendline (magenta), it is likely that the bearish mode is a push for retesting the trendline which may be in confluence with the immediate support on the 4H time frame and near the 50.0 Fib, and erase the October 7 pound sterling crash.
The pair is generally on the downtrend. The outer trendline on the weekly time frame is bearish and still intact. Also, price action is respecting an inner trendline on the weekly time frame to the downside. In August 2015, the pair started a downward trend and completed the first major wave to the downside in April 2016 and a retracement respecting the 61.8% Fib level. Price completed the second wave to the downside in August 2016 but the retracement was feeble is now on a second wave to the downside with far stronger bearish influence. It is now on a third wave to the downside. Recent price action saw a rejection of the support created two weeks ago, much likely a retracement to the upside is in the offing.
Since September 2016, order flow on the daily time frame is largely on the side of the bears but no significant gains had been made in terms of momentum to the downside. Recently the bulls have been struggling for control and there is a push northwards but price has respected the downward trendline (navy colour).
