This pair has been largely range bound this week. So I never traded it. Trade safe.
I was not able to complete my weekly analysis on Sunday owing to other exigencies but I had proposed cable and AUDJPY for bull trade and EURJPY for bear trade during the week. I have only taken the EURJPY because cable and AUDJPY had moved too far when I had the opportunity to enter the market. I trade only a few times a week and I don’t chase the price. Trade safe.
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
This pair has been on a descending trend since March 2014. However, for much of 2015 the market has been on a sideways mode. A series of consolidation patterns followed; between August and November 2016, price action formed a horizontal consolidation pattern which retested the descending trendline on the weekly time frame. The resulting order flow led to a bearish push and the bears are still strongly influential. Last week, a bearish pin bar formed at a significant weekly support. This is indicative of a further bearish move with a probable target of the next weekly support around 1.03517. The order flow context on the 4H time frame is supportive of further bearish influence but the present level is very close to a monthly resistance zone last visited several years ago.
I may be wrong. Trade safe.
EURJPY Weekly Technical Outlook
Since January 2015, the pair has respected a descending trendline. As can be seen on the monthly time frame, this trendline formed after a 74.6% Fib retracement of a much larger descending trend which began in July 2007, that trend retracing about 74% between January 2013 and December 2014.
On the weekly time frame, the descending trendline is still holding. However, in the last two weeks price attempted to breach the trendline but not with success. Although the order flow context still favours the bulls, the market structure for a downward trend is not yet breached. Much likely there would be a further bullish effort to test the immediate resistance zone between 124.605 and 124.641. In regard to price waves formation on the weekly timeframe, the first downward price wave was corrected with a strong pull back, which gave rise to the second price wave – much longer and has resulted in the current corrective move, which is now heading towards the 50.0 Fib level; a level that adjoins the immediate resistance zone.
The daily time frame indicates that the descending trendline is still respected but recent price action seems towards filling the bearish gap created last Thursday and perhaps making a retest of the trendline and with an initial target of the next resistance on the daily time frame, around 123.354.
I may be wrong. Trade safe.
USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook
The major trend on the weekly time frame is up. There was a 50 % Fib retracement between January and June 2016 and a down trend had been in play for much of 2016, however the market structure was breached to the upside and the bulls are still influential. Currently, the price action is around a strong S/R zone but the bullish influence may see at least an initial target test of the zone which spans 116.280 and 117.060. The technicals on the daily time frame support the observation on the weekly. The price has just breached the 61.8% Fib and the likely next target is the next resistance which adjoins the 74.6 Fib; if this is breached the market structure for a downward trend on the daily time frame will be much threatened.
I may be wrong. Trade safe.
USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook
The pair has now moved further upward since last week, which was the expected direction as of last week’s technical analysis. However, on the weekly timeframe the price action has tested the trendline after breaching the 61.8% Fib retracement. The price rejected the trendline but the technicals indicate momentum for a further push to the upside. A likely target is the 78.4% Fib level which is proximal to the significant round number of 120.000. With the immediate resistance zone on the weekly time frame just above this level, there may be a spike upwards before a further move downwards. On the daily time frame, the descending trendline is still respected but the order flow context still shows the influence of the bulls for a further upward push, which may be limited or restrained around the descending trendline on the weekly time frame and the 74.6% Fib level.
I may be wrong. Trade safe.
EURJPY Weekly Technical Outlook
The pair has now moved further upward since last week, which was the expected direction as of last week’s technical analysis. However, the technicals on both the weekly and daily time frames still indicate the possibility of further upward move. A possible target is the immediate resistance zone on the weekly time frame, which spans both the 50.0 and 61.8% Fib levels. Although on the daily time frame, the price is still respecting an ascending trendline but it has not breached the major descending trendline (chocolate colour); and so the market structure for the down trend is still in place. Thus, the possibility for a push back of price action to the downside is high.
I may be wrong. Trade safe.
EURJPY Technical Update
Having being pushed further upwards yesterday and still on the upward drive, you may expect the EURJPY to track backwards to the south after hitting the weekly pivot and retesting the 4H ascending trendline which it rejected yesterday.
I may be wrong. Trade safe.
I have just completed my weekly scan and analysis of the pairs on my watch list. I will look for the auspicious time during the week to trade AUDUSD and USDJPY southwards as I have a bearish outlook on them for much of the week. Trade safe.
AUDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
On the weekly time frame, the pair has been on a descending trend since March 2013. Since then it has made three major price waves to the downside. The pair was on a retracement to the upside for much of 2016 and consolidated for a while as it hit the 38.2 Fib level of the swing from the immediate price wave to the downside and respecting the descending trendline in the process. The order flow context on the weekly time frame shows strong bearish influence with price at a significant support zone. A break of the support zone to the downside is likely to expose the next support zone which was the swing low of the previous price wave. Otherwise, there may be a retest of the descending trendline before a further southward move.
The technicals on the 4H time frame support the momentum to the downside but further southward move will have to await a retracement of the swing to the downside that began two weeks ago.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook
Price action on the pair has been in an ascending trend since November 7, 2016. However, the momentum for further bullish drive is slowing down on daily and weekly time frames, particularly with marked influence of the bears last week. The market has hit 78.6% Fib level of the previous, and much longer, descending trend on the weekly time frame. The area is adjoining a significant round number, 118.200, where the price action is also respecting a mini-descending trendline on the weekly time frame.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
On the daily time frame, the technicals support a weakened upside momentum and the recent price action still respects the descending trendline (navy colour). Any break of the trend line to the upside is likely to be a surge to test the weekly trendline before a move southwards.
On the 4H time frame, price action has just broken an ascending trendline (magenta colour) and has made some rounding tops formation. This is a probable sign that the momentum for further upward move is threatened.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook
The pair has been on an ascending trend for a long while. On the monthly time frame, the ascending trend which began in July 2012 culminated in the high of 125.848 in June 2015. This retraced downwards to just below the 50.0 Fib in June 2016. Since then, the ascending push has continued. Price action and technicals on the monthly time frame are in favour of further bullish push. On the weekly time frame, price action is still respecting the ascending trend. Although there was a bearish push in the last two weeks nothing decisive has changed. The technicals are mixed. On the daily time frame, the pair has not breached the major trendline (navy colour) and in fact it is respecting an inner trendline to the upside (saddlebrown colour). Presently, price action is operating in a channel (medium blue colour); a flag? It will be a good option to watch price action and see the outcome of its reaction at the channel trendlines. On the 4H time frame, the pair is on a consolidation mode which is in tune with the observation on the daily time frame.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
The primary trend is down but the market mode is for an upside move. The pair rated ‘B’ overall on my system. On the weekly time frame, the market is respecting a downward trend; the major trend is still in play and not yet breached (chocolate colour) but the prevailing inner trend (navy colour) is still respected. However, the technicals support a market mode to the upside. This may mean a corrective move before continuation of the main down trend. On the 4H time frame, price has tested the 61.8% Fib and moved down to between the 50 and 38. 2 Fib levels. The most recent price action formed a bullish piercing candle whose high touched the 50 Fib level. If either the 61.8 or 50 Fib level holds, this may signal a continuation of the bearish trend. However, a likely breach to the upside may target the 78.6 Fib which is very close to the most recent swing high but may not break the market structure for a down trend.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and proper.
USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook
Ranging but in a bearish market mode:
This pair has been on a move to the upside for over four years. However, the pair may reverse southwards because on the monthly time frame the current up trend resulted from a retracement of a swing to the upside which spiked the 78.6% Fib of a major descending trend started in August 2002. On the weekly time frame, the pair is still respecting an ascending trend began in July 2012. A major bullish drive in May 2014 culminated in a swing high in January 2016 and retraced to about 50% Fib in May 2016 to respect the prevailing trendline. Presently price action is within an ascending channel. But the market mode is bearish, indicated in a bearish candle formed last week. On the daily time frame, the pair is clearly operating in an ascending channel but the market mode favours a downward move as the bears wrestled control of the market in the last few days of the past week and the bearish mode is supported by the technicals. The immediate target seems to be the weekly support zone around 1.33466. But a break of the channel to the downside is likely to expose the last swing low around 1.30768 and may serve as a continuation of a downward trend. However, should the lower channel line hold and thus respect the ascending trend on the weekly time frame, further bullish surge may target the immediate weekly resistance or the nearest swing high around 1.38215.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
If you love gold, you may be tracking it with the understanding that the major trend is downside but the current mode is northwards. On the 4H tf, gold is now retracing to an inner ascending trendline for a further bullish push. Trade safe and prosper.
Cable has just spiked very close to the monthly pivot. There is a confluence of a daily resistance zone and 50 EMA (daily). If that area is rejected, we can expect a bearish turnaround. Trade safe and prosper.
USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook
The trend has been up for a while but it seems the momentum has slowed down. Recent price action has rejected a descending trendline on the weekly time frame (saddle brown colour) and the 78.6% Fib level. Therefore, it is important to watch how price reacts to this area. On the 4H time frame, the pair has been in a consolidation mode (khaki-colour rectangle) since the middle of December 2016 but the bulls are currently influential. Should there be a breakout to the upside, an initial target may be the weekly resistance zone around 121.100 while a breakout to the downside may target the 50 Fib level and expose the immediate weekly support around 111.190.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and proper.
