See attached chart.
Best market trapping approach for the EURUSD? Trade southwards from a rally up. Why? The main market direction is southwards.
Trade safe and prosper.
EURGBP Weekly Technical Outlook
The pair has been on the ascent on the monthly time frame since December 2015. On the weekly time frame, the order flow has seen two clear price waves northwards with accompanying pullbacks and the major ascending trendline has been well respected. The most recent price action saw a 32.8% Fib retracement of the 2016 high from the November 2015 low and a bounce off the ascending trendline, perhaps preparatory to another price wave upwards. A hammer candlestick formed three weeks ago signposted the follow-up bullish action of the past two weeks. The bulls apparently seem to be in control and the technicals on the weekly time frame are in support. However, realize that price action is at a significant resistance zone around 0.8787 and there are other minor hindrances on the way up, 70 – 150 pips. Thus, any long trade should best wait for a retracement to be profitable, worthwhile or less risky.
On the daily time frame, price action is operating in an ascending channel and has recently moved to the upper half of the channel (navy colour channel lines) and is respecting an inner ascending trendline (dotted chocolate colour); an indication of an increased momentum – which may signal an impending pullback before a further bullish move, to possibly target 0.88503, the 2017 high. The technicals are in support of a further bullish move.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
EURNZD Weekly Technical Outlook
The pair has been on a descent for a while on the weekly time frame. However, in the past two weeks the bulls have taken control with two relatively large bull candlesticks which engulfed 15 previous candlesticks. This represents a strong bullish intent that cannot be ignored. As this move is in an S/R zone, a further bullish move is likely to target the next hindrance around 1.57400. With success, this move may further target the immediate resistance around 1.59620.
On the daily time frame price action has just rejected the descending trendline and has turned upwards with the bulls in total control but the market structure of the initial downtrend has not yet been broken. This may require a pullback to retest the origin of the recent move upwards around 1.5080 before a further move upwards. Failure in this may result in a break of the trendline southwards to target the base around 1.4699, the monthly pivot.
On the H4 timeframe, price action has moved upwards to respect an inner trendline (magenta colour), indicating an increaseed momentum but with a potential for a strong pull back. This may result in a 32.8 – 50 Fib retracement before a continuation of the northward move; failure may mean a southward crash to a lower level, perhaps the major trendline (navy colour) from the daily time frame around 61.8 – 76.4 Fib zone or lower.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
GBPAUD Weekly Technical Outlook
The pair has been on a descent on the weekly time frame since September 2015 and respecting a major trendline (chocolate colour).
On the daily time frame, the price is respecting an inner descending trendline but the momentum is weak. There is manifest struggle between the bulls and the bears. This is not surprising as the price action is in a strong support zone. There is at least another 90 pips for maneuvering southwards within the zone.
On the H4 time frame, price has been operating in a descending channel since February 2017. It has moved southwards within the channel creating a double inside bar during the last eight hours of Friday last week. If this results in a further bearish move, price is likely to target the channel line and, perhaps, the next significant support around 1.60044, which represents the 2017 low on the pair; and may expose the 1.57890 handle, the 2016 low.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
I want to travel southwards with cable. Here’s why!
The pair maintains a bearish disposition on the weekly time frame. After a bullish retracement in January, price action has returned to a bearish mode although the momentum is still weak owing to resistance from the bulls. Nevertheless, the technicals on the weekly time frame still favour the bears.
On the H4 time frame, price action is consolidating in a significant zone (bound by sandybrown coloured lines), adjoining the January gap down and may remain so for a while. This gap has never been visited since January and any break of the zone southward may target the low around 1.19914.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
[B]Just sharing[/B]
Try this - combine a price action strategy with patience and precision in trade entry.
Trade safe and prosper.
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
Last week, I had the view that cable would move southwards to retest the gap of January 15, 2017, between 1.2120 and 1.2000. But I was mistaken. Thanks to the favourable fundamentals on cable and the poor greenback showing fundamentally. Nevertheless, overall, I consider the cable move purely unreliable and unsustainable. Yes, the pair has been on an upward stretch; but it seems to be nearing a plateau.
On the daily time frame, the pair is entering an area of consolidation (khaki rectangle). There, it will have to contend with the monthly pivot around 1.24761 and a series of weekly resistance levels nearby.
On the H4 time frame, while it is apparent that the potential for further upward move is there but it may be appealing for scalping purpose only as the main trend is southwards and the 50/61.8 Fib zone is yet to be taken out.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook
The pair has been on the descent on the weekly time frame since December 2015. It entered a corrective mode in November 2016 and peaked at the 78.6 Fib level in December 2016, respecting a major descending trendline (chocolate colour) which began in October 2015. Price action since November 2016 tends to align with an inner descending trendline (dotted line in chocolate colour). Two weeks ago, a bullish candlestick formed to validate the inner trendline and got pushed back by bearish pressure around a resistance zone. Last week an engulfing-like candlestick formalized the bearish influence and disposed the price action further southwards. Nevertheless, the overall price action is taking place in area of consolidation and so the momentum for further downward movement may be limited.
On the daily time frame, price action is on a descent with strong bearish influence. However, as price action is in a consolidation zone (khaki colour) within an S/R area, price may need to retrace upwards to retest the inner descending trendline of the weekly time frame or the immediate resistance zone around 115.850 before a more confident move southwards. It should be realized that the zone has held as support since mid-January 2017. Should price break the zone to the downside, an initial target is likely to be 113.100, a significant round number which aligns with the previous low of March 2016.
On the H4 time frame, price action is largely bearish. However, the momentum is hindered by some consolidating influence of bulls. The most recent price action, with predominant low-wicky candlesticks, indicate a high probability for a move upwards before any further bearish move. A probable area for an upward corrective move is the 32.8/50 Fib zone which adjoins 113.680 – 114.030 and potentially a flip zone, having served as a resistance and support for a while on the H4 time frame.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
GBPAUD Weekly Technical Analysis
Price has been declining overall since August 2015. A major descending trend line on the weekly time frame has been largely respected by price action. Two main descending price waves have formed since then. However, the second price wave has very little pullback. Possibly a leg up may be required before another descending price wave begins. It should be noted that on the weekly time frame, price has breached the low of 2017; it targeted the low of 2016 but failed. Is that the potential next target for price action, around 1.57890?
On the daily time frame, price action is within a descending channel; a breach of which to the downside is likely to expose the low of 2016 around 1.57890. From the H4 time frame, it is apparent that the bulls are attempting to push price a bit further upwards, perhaps to retest the most recent high (around 1.61362) or the upper channel line. This is likely the case as a hammer candlestick rejected the midline of the channel last week Friday, which was followed up by a further bullish push.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
AUDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
The pair has been consolidating for much of the past seven weeks. However, the downward trend that started in March 2013 is not yet broken. Recent price action on the weekly time frame is around a weekly S/R zone. Last week a piercing-like bearish candlestick formed on the weekly time frame but the previous week’s candlestick was a relatively larger bullish candlestick. Momentum for further bearish move is likely to result from a break below the counter trend line (magenta colour) on the weekly time frame.
On the daily time frame, recent price action has been under the influence of bears. With a break of price action below important zones, e.g. the immediate resistance zone and the monthly pivot, the next hindrance southwards is the counter tend line and the daily support zone, between 0.75516 and 0.75508.
On the H4 time frame, price action has made one wave southwards and is now operating around a resistance zone following a pullback. Although there is much likelihood for further retracement, the technicals favour a southwards move thereafter, particularly if price breaks below the counter tend line (navy colour). This is likely to target and expose the next significant support zone around 0.74663.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper
USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook
This pair continued its bearish disposition. On the weekly time frame, in December 2016, the pair saw a 76.4 Fib retracement of the downward trend began in August 2015. Price action has moved below the outer trend line to respect an inner trendline. Recent price action has remained within the 61.8/50.0 Fib zone, moved below the monthly pivot and validated a counter trendline (magenta colour). The technicals on the weekly time frame favour further bearish move.
On the daily time frame, recent price action is largely under the control of bears. However, there was a bullish influence last Friday which may indicate a likely pullback before further southward move. This is particularly so as the price action in the latter part of last week was in a support zone which has held since November 2016.
The likelihood of a further pullback can be seen on the H4 time frame where much of the price action has been in consolidation but the bullish engulfing candlestick formed in the last session on Friday dominated two previous candlesticks; a possible target of any such retracement is around the 50 Fib zone, between 111.644 and 112.234.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
If you are tracking EURUSD, note that price has entered an S/R zone that was last visited in December 2016.
Trade safe and prosper.
Are you tracking USDJPY? You may expect it to move further northwards before driving southwards. A likely retracement target is the 38.2/50 Fib zone, proximal to the immediate resistance zone on the H4 time frame.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
EURJPY Weekly Technical Outlook
The pair is generally on a downward mood. Since mid-December 2016, price action on the weekly time frame has been operating within a descending channel formed by the outer and inner descending trendlines from the high of 2014. Price action in February and early March 2017 retraced upwards to the range formed between mid December 2016 and January 2017 before moving further southwards four weeks ago. Last week, the weekly candlestick tested and nestled on the ascending trendline (chocolate colour) from the low of 2016, and at an intersection of a weekly support zone, but could not breach it. A breach of the trendline is likely to target and be limited by the ascending trendline (navy colour) from the low of 2012. Should price action bounce off that zone, it would have to contend with an inner descending trendline (chocolate colour) from the high of August 2015 with the monthly pivot around 120.00 serving as another likely hindrance. A break above this is likely to be held by the immediate resistance zone around 122.00, which intersects the inner descending trendline. The technicals on the weekly time frame are disposed for further southward drive. On the H4 time frame, an outer descending trendline (bold saddlebraown colour) from the high of March 13, 2017 is still very much in play while price action has moved lower, indicating an increase in momentum, to respect an inner descending trendline (bold magenta colour) from the high of March 17, 2017. The order folw context and the nature of price action last week showed that the market was in consolidation but the bulls were largely more influential. It is much likely that there wil be a retracement northwards before any further southward move is in play. A likely target of such a retracement is the intersection of the inner descending trendline and the immediate resistance zone, which is around 118.656 and 119.023 and which adjoins the 38.2 Fib zone from the high of March 17, 2017.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
If you are tracking the AUDUSD this week, consider this technical perspective. On the H4 time frame, price action has broken the triangle pattern formed by a descending trendline (bold magenta colour) from the high of March 2017 and an ascending trendline (bold magenta colour) from the low of March 2017 and is now respecting an inner descending trendline (navy colour), indicating an increase in southward momentum. Two bearish price waves had been created since the price action moved into the inner trendline – the first was accompanied by a full pullback, but the second is still in play and may likely experience a pullback before further southward push.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
If you are tracking EURUSD, note that the price action is operating around the support line of an ascending channel. A daily close below the support line is likely to expose the low of 2016 around 1.03631, which has held as a multi-year support zone. Otherwise, price is likely to pull upwards into the channel to target the immediate resistance around 1.06500.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
If you are tracking USDJPY, note that although the overall technical disposition of the pair is southwards, there is likely to be a retracement northwards to around 109.320 and 110 before a further southward drive. The immediate key support is about 50 pips southwards at the moment.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
As the immediate key support is about 50 pips southwards at the moment, unless you are a scalper, you would like to wait for a retracement to swing trade the pair southwards.
Trade safe and prosper.
EURJPY Weekly Technical Outlook
The pair has been on the decline since July 2008. It witnessed about 61.8 Fib retracement in January 2014 and peaked just shy of 76.4 Fib retracement by the end of that year. The pair has rejected southwards the major descending trendline on the weekly time frame (chocolate colour) and is now respecting another descending trendline from the high of 2014 (navy colour). Between December 2016 and January 2017, price action consolidated around 38.2 Fib retracement of the July 2008 decline. After a brief southward move, price retested the same zone in March 2017 before it drove further southwards four weeks ago. The order flow in April has been largely under the control of sellers but a major support zone which intersects with the ascending trendline (chocolate colour) from the low of 2012 (serving as a support) is just about 45 pips away and there is likelihood of some sideways move or reaction upwards at the zone before the southward drive gathers much impetus. Should price break the support southwards that will expose the 110.400/450 handle, the low of 2016 which has served as a multi-year support. The technicals on the weekly time frame support further southward move.
On the H4 time frame, the pair is respecting a descending trendline (magenta colour) from the high of March 2016 around the 38.2 Fib zone and an inner descending trendline (magenta colour) has formed, indicating an increase in momentum. Price action has formed two descending price waves with accompanying pullbacks and a third price wave is still in play but there is likelihood of a pullback before a further move southwards particularly as price action has hit support in the shape of an ascending trendline (saddlebrown colour) from the low of September 2016. However, given the price momentum and the order flow context, unless the fundamentals contrive otherwise, the major technical outlook is for a bearish continuation.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.