Hedging is a defeatist strategy. When you set your reasonable/affordable stop loss and get hit, you have another opportunity to reassess/stalk the market for better positioning and trade. Trading with a stop loss gives you confidence in your trading ability and forces you to become a better trader if you manage your trading capital well. Although hedging can make you money, it doesn’t help you build a profitable trading edge.
EURUSD and some other pairs on my watch list are ranging/sideways at the moment. A probable pair that worths attention seems to be USDJPY; looking to going long upon retracement.
[B]Tip:[/B]
A top-down analysis of the pairs on your watch list will be facilitated by using a combination of RSI and ADX on the weekly chart. Trade safe.
EURUSD outlook at the moment? There is potential for a southward push upon bouncing off the hourly 200 EMA which is near both the MP and WP. Trade safe.
I am now doing a weekly scan on the 8 pairs on my watch list. I should be looking to trade 2-3 of the pairs during the week depending on how they rate after my weekly top down scanning. Among other things, I want to see how the pairs trended and how aligned the EMAs I use are on the higher time frames (HTFs) as well as the directional agreement of the RSI across the HTFs. Trade safe.
I am still bearish on EURUSD. Talking about the principle of trapping the market which underpins my trading model. Central to trapping the market is defining the boundary and boundary conditions under which you want to watch, stalk and trap the market. In the process, price-turning zones or levels will be crucial but how price performs across the time frames within the boundary is key to effective trade timing. Thus, a swing trader may use a higher time frame, say 4H, for his/her set-up time frame, but will have to scan lower time frames for efficient timing of trade entry and trapping of price action. Trade safe.
Interestingly, I am bearish on the pairs on my watch list this week: EURUSD, NZDJPY, EURJPY, GBPNZD and EURUAD. Here attached is my trendline set-up for NZDJPY. I am tracking the NZDJPY for a bearish trade with confluence in mind. In the attached chart, the colored horizontal lines show S/R zones identified on Sunday and earlier in the week. Trade safe.
While still tracking the NZDJPY, I observed that the swing down below the 4-H 20 EMA on EURJPY provides an interesting outlook. Using the 4-hour as my set up time frame and dropping down to the 15 Minute chart for precise trade location, I saw that the 200EMA on the 15 minute is in confluence with the 62 Fib level. It is also noteworthy that it is the location of a psychological number, 112.400. If price action retraces to that level, it could provide a profitable southward trade. I am tracking the price action. Trade safe.
Also keep an eye on the 50 FIb which is also near a round number. Interestingly, if you pull down a Fib on the 30 minute chart from the swing high just under the the 200 EMA you can see that the 50 Fib level coincide with 112.400. Fib and 200 EMA are part of the market-tracking mechanism I employ.
I am currently watching the USDCAD and USDCHF. They have both given me a bearish trade signal on the 4-H chart. Any price action below the weekly pivot will provide the entry for me to enter a trade to the downside. Trade safe.
I still stay bearish on EURUSD. The momentum on the weekly, daily and 4H time frames favours a southward move. Trade safe.
I am now tracking the price action of EURAUD moving towards an interesting resistance zone, 1.48266 to 1.48472. If price gets there I will be looking for a bearish signal to short the pair. Trade safe
I still remain bearish on EURUSD. As usual, I did my weekly scan during the weekend to choose the few pairs I may trade during this week among the pairs on my watch list. I will be looking to trade three pairs during the week: EURNZD, GBPUSD and USDCAD. I use a 5-7 step approach to arrive at the choice of 3-4 pairs to trade. For the purpose of sharing ideas, and receiving any critique from fellow traders, here is a summary of the analysis I did towards arriving at trading EURNZD this week. [B]I may be wrong.
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A relatively big pinbar (last week) compared to previous (two week’s ago), body more than thrice size of previous but with a short upper wick, no wick at low end. RSI and ADX on weekly portend a strongly bearish price action with good momentum. The 4H time frame indicated bearish continuation. Look to go for a southward trade during the week using a mean reversion strategy.
Based on my analysis, if GBPUSD reject the DP & WP in a bullish move, I will be looking to trade northward.
[B]I may be wrong.[/B]
Trade safe.
Note that cable has not broken the low created since July 7 in spite of retests and the momentum downwards has remained weak. This seems to portend that a bullish move is in the offing.
It is interesting to see how EURGBP is retesting a resistance zone, which is in confluence with the DP and WP. If the zone is rejected, look for a bearish trade with a profit target around the 0.84520/0.84310 area. Trade safe.
Generally agree but would like to see price clear 1.300 convincingly with a HH and HL before trading up. I’m also bearish on the eurodollar.
Thanks BRV. I like your analysis. The area you noticed is just above the WP. I will be looking for a clear bullish rejection signal or a rejection of the trend line I have drawn before going long. Thanks for your contribution. Trade safe.
