GBPUSD is currently in an ambivalent mode.
Trade safe.
XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
The XAUUSD market is in a consolidation phase. On the weekly time frame, price action has been operating in an ascending channel (blue) since December 2016. Recent price action is disposed southward and currently located at channel support. Two weeks’ ago, the market printed a bullish pinbar at channel support but there was no sustainable bullish follow-through. Price action printed an indecision candlestick last week in favour of bears but we may have to wait for clarity of market bias this week.
The technicals on the daily time frame are in favour of a southward disposition. However, as current price action is located around a minor horizontal support zone (the 1239.90 area), which is in confluence with the support trendline of an ascending channel (blue), we may see a sideways operation and/or a northward retracement before any southward continuation. The minor horizontal resistance around 1263.50/60 may be exposed as a northward retracement target. A minor descending trendline (red) is in play.
On the H4 time frame, the order flow is in favour of bears. A minor descending trendline (magenta) is in play and the technicals are synced southward but the market mode is a consolidation. Towards the end of last Friday sessions, price action was slightly influenced by bulls but the two candlesticks printed were small in size. Nevertheless, should bulls attempt to push price action northward in the early part of this week, we may see them target the minor horizontal resistance around 1250.08/1257.06 (bound by horizontal magenta lines) or the minor descending trendline (magenta) before a southward turnaround. Failure on the part of bulls may see bears seize the initiative after a sideways operation. An initial target of bears is likely to be the horizontal support around 1213.90.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Are you trying to make sense of the EURUSD market at the moment? The market is in a consolidation mode within a triangular channel. Check the daily and weekly charts.
Trade safe and prosper.
The 1.32600 area is where I am looking for a bearish setup on cable. It is likely to be a significant flip zone should the current northward retracement get there.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
The markets on the pairs I track are largely in a sideways mode. In the circumstance, it is better to step aside, at least during this Monday’s sessions, for directional clarity.
Trade safe and prosper.
AUDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
The AUDUSD market is consolidating. On the weekly time frame, the market is operating in a narrow descending channel (black) after breaking down a larger ascending channel (red). In the last six weeks, price action has been operating in a horizontal channel with a narrow range; which portends a strong breakout after the current consolidation. Technically, the market favours the bears, more so with the rejection of the larger channel (red) by a bearish pinbar eight weeks ago. But a likely reason for the lack of bearish momentum is that price action is currently located around a horizontal support which is in confluence with a support trendline (blue) from the low of January 2016. Thus, we may see further sideways operation or a retracement to around the 0.75300 area, a recently broken down horizontal support, before a southward turnaround. A break down of the support trendline (blue) is likely to provide impetus for a bearish momentum and may see bears target the immediate horizontal support around the 0.71660 area.
On the daily time frame, price action has shown a technical pattern; whereby a period of consolidation yields to a southward move. Currently, we are in a consolidation regime (magenta) and a southward move is likely to follow. On Friday, the market printed an inside candlestick, which technically is ambivalent. We may have to wait to see what happens on Monday.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
The GBPUSD market was largely ambivalent last week; it printed a doji-like candlestick on the weekly time frame. The price is in an area which has seen much sideways operation since June 2018 and had witnessed congestion in October and November 2017. A long-tailed candlestick which was formed two weeks ago is acting as a master candlestick and the candlestick printed on the weekly time frame last week attempted to test its high without success; bears are apparently now positioned to test its low. Should there be a bearish follow-through, we may see the 1.27710 area exposed. The area saw the start of a strong northward move in August 2017. However, we should be wary of an ascending trendline (red) from the low of January 2017 which may act as support and hinder a bearish momentum. The trendline has been tested four times and may likely be broken; but there is also the possibility of a bounce off the trendline. A bounce off the trendline may see bulls retest the monthly pivot (1.32432), which adjoins the high of the candlestick printed last week. Stepping aside to see what market does on Monday would be a reasonable thing to do in the circumstance.
On the daily time frame, the market is consolidating along a descending channel (black). The order flow context is in favour of bears and it seems that the current consolidation is largely a slowing down of the bearish move. A bearish engulfing candlestick was printed last Thursday within the channel but there was no bearish follow-through on Friday. A bearish continuation is likely to see bears target the channel support or the 1.29400 area.
On the H4 time frame, the market has recently breached a minor support (now resistance) around the 1.32090 area (magenta horizontal line). The most recent price action shows a struggle between bulls and bears. We may see a pullback or sideways operation on Monday before directional clarity. A pullback may be to 1.31630 (an immediate minor resistance) or even to a retest of the 1.32090 area, while a sideways price action is premised on the struggle between bulls and bears last week Friday. I will be stepping aside for now.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
The XAUUSD market has been largely ambivalent for a few weeks. Just check the nature of the candlesticks printed on the daily time frame, they are somewhat on both directions even though there is a slight disposition towards bears. But there is little to choose in terms of sustainable directional bias.
Trade safe and prosper.
In the main, the downward move is losing steam.
Trade safe.
If you are tracking EURJPY, note that price action has just broken down a support trendline from the low of May 2018. A retest and flip of the trendline next week is likely to give impetus to bears to challenge the 125.050 handle.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
The XAUUSD market has been bearish since May 2018. However, the bearish momentum seems to be waning as price action enters a significant horizontal support zone, the 1204.70 area, which was last visited in July 2017. A confluence of resistance in the shape of an ascending trendline (black) from the low of November 2015 reinforces the area as a barrier.
On the weekly time frame, the market turned southward in early June 2018 after breaking down an ascending channel (blue) that has been in operation for several months. In the last three weeks, price action has printed bearish candlesticks that have been constrained by bulls as it approaches a horizontal support zone around the 1200.00 area. The candlestick printed last week was not able to break down the zone but instead respected a support trendline (black) from the low of November 2015. We may expect bears to attack this zone this week. However, as the recent candlesticks printed by price action have been ambivalent, we may see bulls give bears a good fight. The result may be a sideways operation or a brief northward retracement before a southward continuation.
Price action on the daily time frame is disposing southward. The market has moved below a descending trendline (chocolate) from the high of April 2018 and price action is now respecting an inner trendline (blue). The candlesticks printed since July 2018 have mainly been ‘wicky’ and resulted in the formation of a mini-triangular pattern (magenta), which was broken down on Wednesday last week. There was a bearish follow-up on Thursday last week but bulls intervened on Friday to take price action northward, retesting the base of the triangle (magenta). We may see a brief northward move or sideways operation early this week before bears regain control of the market. The horizontal support around 1200.00/1195.00 is likely to be exposed should bears garner the momentum for their drive.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
Technically, the EURUSD is disposed southward on the monthly time frame. In January 2018, the market saw a 61.8 Fib retracement of the southward move from the high of May 2014 to the low of December 2016. There was a sideways operation in the area in January 2018 through March 2018 before bears seized control of price action for a southward move. The market was in consolidation in June and July 2018 but technically the bears are favoured. The horizontal support at the 1.14400/1.13400 zone is likely to be of interest as target of bears.
On the weekly time frame, the market has largely been consolidating in the past 10 weeks. Last week, price action printed a bearish continuation candlestick that breached the low of a bullish pinbar formed three weeks ago. There are still a few lower wicks of previous candlesticks to be breached before bears could control the market. In fact, there are a few horizontal barriers below current location of price action for bears to scale. However, although the 1.14480 area is a key horizontal support, it is likely to be within reach of bears this week. But we should note the ascending trendline (red) from the low of December 2016 which may be a barrier.
On the daily time frame, the market is now in a support zone that has held on many occasions in the past, effectively since October 27, 2017. But any breach of the support by bears is not likely to lead to much southward drive as the immediate horizontal support is less than 100 pips southward and an ascending trendline (red) seen on the weekly time frame is still in play.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
I will step side on this pair as the market is still ambivalent. I will wait for directional clarity in the market.
Trade safe and prosper.
EURJPY Weekly Technical Outlook
The relatively big bearish candlestick printed on the monthly time frame in May 2018 is acting as a control or master candlestick for subsequent price action. The candlestick printed in June 2018 attempted the low of the May 2018 candlestick but price action could not go far to breach it. Then the July 2018 candlestick surged northward to hit the high of the May 2018 candlestick but ended up being an indecision candlestick. The candllestick so far printed in August 2018 is bearing south and it is just a few pips short of the significant horizontal support around the 128.130 area, which is also the low of the candlestick printed in July 2018. Given the nature of the candlestick patterns printed by recent price action, we may see bears take the market further southward.
Last week, a bearish pinbar was printed by price action with its tail piercing a resistance zone on the weekly time frame. This is a bearish follow-through of the price action began three weeks ago. Although we may have a slight pullback in the early part of this week, we can expect a bearish continuation in the main. The bears may target the horizontal support around the 127.050 area. However, we should be wary of an ascending trendline (navy) from the low of April 2017, which may be a hindrance to any bearish momentum.
On the daily time frame, recent price action has carved out an ascending channel (magenta). Presently, price action is located around the channel support and the candlesticks printed in the last three days of last week are disposed in favour of bears. But a break of the channel support is likely to see bears face further barrier in the shape of the horizontal support around 128.210; which may likely result in a corrective pullback, perhaps to around the previous minor horizontal support turned resistance around 129.300. Thereafter, we may see a southward turnaround, which is likely to give impetus for a bearish momentum that may see bears attempt to take out the horizontal support around 127.050/126.600.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
Three weeks ago, the GBPUSD market entered a significant support zone that was last crossed northward in September 2017, and printed a long-tailed rejection candlestick. A doji-like candlestick was printed a week later, indicating the strong barrier bears are facing around the zone. Last week, a slightly bearish candlestick was printed but the wicks on both ends indicate that bears are not in control of the market. This is expected at such a zone but the bulls are not in control either. Technically, bears are still favoured and we may see another attack by bears to break down the zone. A successful breakdown of the zone by bears is likely to expose the 1.27500 area. Notice that price action has breached a support trendline (red) from the low of January 2017, which is likely to act as resistance. I will only be interested in a sell trade when the horizontal support around the 1.29250 area is breached or if price action retraces northward and offers a bearish setup around an area of value.
It is apparent from the H4 time frame that the market has a significant bearish disposition. And that the current market mode, or prevailing mood, is merely a corrective operation. In the main, the market is in consolidation and it is disposed to turn bearish thereafter. Recent price action is now operating in a descending channel (black) and bearing southward. A mini descending trendline (magenta) is in play and may act as resistance to any bullish move. Technically, the bears are favoured to take price further southward but we cannot rule out a northward pullback. A retest of the mini trendline (magenta) is likely to lead to a southward turnaround. However, should bulls manage to breach it northward, we should watch price action around the broken down ascending trendline (red), seen on the weekly time frame, for any significant bearish setup. Technically, the bulls are not favoured to sustain any northward move. I am bearish GBPUSD.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
The bearish technical bias on the W1 time frame supports a possible leg down from the current consolidation on the H4 time frame. General wave analysis on the H4 time frame is indicative of a possible next impulsive, southward wave after the current corrective phase.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Whatever northward pullback we may have on the cable market now is much likely to be corrective in nature; it may offer scalpers and intra-day traders a few pips going long but it’s not likely to be sustainable from a technical perspective. Imoh, the area that may see a realistic turnaround is the 1.26230 area.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
NZDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
The market has been in consolidation (blue) for several weeks. The consolidation channel was broken down in the last week of June 2018. However, price action did not go far southward before it entered a minor sideways operation in July 2018. Last week, price action printed a relatively big bearish continuation candlestick, which is indicative of the intent of bears to take price further southward. The horizontal support around the 0.63700 area may be a target of bears.
On the daily time frame, price action has recently breached a minor horizontal channel just below the major channel (blue) seen on tne weekly time frame. Of course, such a pattern is supportive of a bearish disposition. Nevertheless, as the follow-up price action was parabolic in nature we may see a northward pullback to the minor channel area or to the descending trendline (navy) from recent highs before a southward turnaround.
I am bearish NZDUSD.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
EURUSD Weekly Outlook
For several weeks, the EURUSD market has been consolidating. Last week, the market moved southward beyond the lower channel line of the consolidation. Price action on the weekly time frame is now at an S/R zone and we should watch how the market handles the zone in the early part of this week.
On the H4 time frame, the market experienced a parabolic drop from the area of consolidation where it has operated for quite a long while. Such a move is not likely to be sustainable and is likely to be followed by a pullback. We may expect the market to have a pullback to the 1.15200 area, which is a broken down support area and then role-flipped as resistance. This is likely to result in a southward turnaround. A descending trendline (magenta) from July 31, 2018 is likely to act as resistance.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
Price action on GBPUSD carved out a descending channel (black) on the monthly time frame. Three price waves have completed within the channel and a fourth, bearing southward, kicked in at channel resistance in April 2018. Presently, price action is operating below the monthly pivot and has entered a horizontal support around the 1.26650 area.
On the weekly time frame, recent price action has seen a series of consolidation since the end of April 2018. Last week, price action printed a bearish continuation candlestick which broke down a recent consolidation. It moved into a horizontal support zone around the 1.26790 area but bulls checkmated its southward momentum. We may see some sideways operation, or even a pullback, of price action in the early part of this week but the major market disposition is technically southward.
The daily time frame indicates that price action has moved strongly southward and apparently far from the mean value area. We may see a pullback of price action to the broken down horizontal support around the 1.30100 area. We should also be aware of a descending trendline (red) which may act as resistance.
Price action on the H4 time frame has moved southward of an outer descending trendline (red) seen on the daily time frame and is respecting an inner descending trendline (magenta). This is an indication of an increase in momentum, which is likely to be corrected with a pullback to a broken down support area. Even though the most recent price action last week Friday saw bulls take the market a bit northward, it was in the context of a minor consolidation. However, there may still be a further northward pullback to an area of value; and there are many such areas on the H4 time frame. But the previous support around 1.30100 (i.e. 1.29530/1.30100), bound by horizontal blue lines, has a greater potential; it is a confluence of the 61.8 Fib retracement of the recent drop from the monthly pivot as well as being a round number area. At any rate, wherever market decides to turn around should be of interest knowing that technically the market favours the bears.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.