Yeah AUD bullish still targeting D on the daily imo
hourlys nice too
Yeah, BRV. The momentum for AUDUSD bullish move is still strong. Trade safe.
After doing my pre-weekly scan and analysis, I am choosing three pairs from the ten pairs on my watch list for trading opportunity this week. Although I am still bearish on the EURUSD, I prefer to look for trading opportunity on EURJPY this weak. The three pairs I may likely trade are: EURJPY, GBPCAD and GBPNZD.
Here is my perspective on the EURJPY. From the weekly time frame, I saw that there was a bullish threat for an upside move but the long upper wick of the second to the last weekly candle indicated there was still a strong bear pressure. Moving to the 4H, which is my setup time frame, here is what I saw and my plan of action: Bulls have been in control for much of the trend, relatively big bull candles and far more bull candles but second-to-last bull candle was an upper-wick pin-bar with a tiny wick at low end followed by a small bull candle with wicks at both ends and which closed above the close of the previous and followed by a bearish spinning top, a sign of bull weakness; bears started getting influential towards upper part of trend initially with a few moderate-sized candles but became stronger with the last two candles being relatively bigger bear candles than most of the previous bull candles; last candle has wicks of equal size at both ends – bears are not yet fully in control; RSI on 4-H bears southwards and ADX bears downwards: momentum to the downside has resumed but it is still weak. Wait for clarity. My plan will be to look for the best opportunity for a trade to the downside using a mean-reversion strategy. Trade safe.
[B]I may be wrong.[/B]
I have noticed a double top formation on the 4H chart at a prominent resistance zone. If price forms another rejection candle at that area, it will be my cue to take a trade southward. [B]I may be wrong.[/B] Trade safe.
Based on my pre-week analysis, I chose to trade GBPNZD rather than GBPUSD. I have a bias to the upside on both but the GBPNZD appears to have a better potential technically. [B]I may be wrong.[/B] Trade safe
As indicated in an earlier post yesterday, I am now bearish on EURJPY and was waiting for a bearish rejection of key resistance zone. It seemed price is rejecting that zone but I could see the formation of H&S pattern on the 4H chart which I would like to wait for confirmation for a potentially less risky trade. When price breaks the trendline of the attached $H chart to the downside, in area which is in confluence with the monthly pivot (MP) I will take the opportunity for a trade southward with target to the immediate next 4H support zone. I may be wrong. Trade safe.
As you can see from the chart I have set a sell stop order for this pair. A better strategy will be to wait for the trendline break first before doing so. I have done so because I need to attend some meetings and may not have time for much of the day for proper entry. What I will do will be to use my smartphone at the earliest possible time when the trade has been triggered to set my stop loss and take profit. Trade safe.
I am still biased to the downside on EURJPY. This may seem absurd at the moment but the weekly outlook and current market structure still favors my bias. [B]I may be wrong.[/B] Trade safe.
It should be interesting to observe that price is testing to the downside a confluence area of the daily pivot and 200 EMA on the 4 hour chart. If this is successfully done, that may be the impetus for a strong bearish momentum.
I have just done my mid-week update, to accommodate any significant change that is impacting on my sentiment for the week on the three pairs I chose to trade. As I have not entered a trade on GBPCAD, I will still keep an eye on the price action but I was wrong in my initial analysis.
Here is the update on GBPCAD and GBPNZD, I am still bearish on EURJPY.
[B]GBPCAD:[/B] My initial analysis did not favour a strong upward push owing to the long upper wick of last weekly candle and its close far below the open of the bear candle before it. The fact that the upper wick was more than ¾ of the candle range was an indication of further bearish threat. Besides, current GBP post-brexit situation couple with generally stronger USA fundamentals favour further bearish mode for GBPCAD. Furthermore, key technical e.g. 50 SMA, RSI and ADX favour a bearish mode for GBPCAD on my relevant HTFS (weekly, daily and 4H). I will stay off trading the GBPCAD.
[B]GBPNZD:[/B] The initial price action on Monday favoured a northward move, which offered an early profit on my long trade. Since then the GBPNZD has been largely ambivalent. Current GBP post-brexit situation couple with generally stronger USA fundamentals favour a bearish mode but constrained by the lack of positively correlated kiwi fundamentals, a reason why GBPNZD has not moved much southwards. In fact, technically, GBPNZD has barely moved below the daily trend line I identified on Sunday and there is potential for a break to the upside as the technicals on daily and 4H time frames are mixed/ambivalent. I will track price action for possible trade on the north; much like good GBP fundamentals during the week will provide the impetus.
[B]I may be wrong.[/B] Trade safe.
Price has just broken down the trendline I drew on on Sunday on the daily EURJPY chart. That has already offered over 110 pips southwards and has the potential to double that figure. Trade safe.
The overall direction of EURUSD is southwards, only that the momentum is weak at the moment. Trade safe.
The technicals on GBPNZD are mixed at the moment. Therefore, I will not trade it until there is alignment and the GBP’s fundamentals have improved.
Although the ‘panic’ news on Japan, which has now turned out to be an old interview granted the BBC by Kuroda in June, spiked the price upwards on EURJPY, the 62 and 50 Fib levels seem to be ‘restraining’ further move upwards for a potentially further move southward. Trade safe.
I have just completed my weekly scanning of the 10 pairs on my watch list. After the first of six steps, I found five pairs potentially favourably tradable for my style as a short-term swing trader: AUDJPY, EURNZD, EURUSD, GBPJPY and GBPUSD. However after the third step, involving further analysis, it was apparent that EURUSD should be dropped from the list. At the end of the scanning and analysis, AUDJPY, EURNZD, GBPJPY and GBPUSD technically met the conditions I set. Why did I drop EURUSD from the final selection for this week?. Here is my perspective on the pair.
[B]EURUSD:[/B] Although there is potential for a bearish move further down, the quality of the candles and the price structure do not offer a compelling condition to trade in that direction. Overall price action favoured a downward disposition but the momentum was not strong. There is need to wait for clarity and for further price action. This is more so considering that the market has been ranging for weeks and in the same zone. [B]I may be wrong.[/B] Trade safe.
As a short-term swing trader, I will be waiting for the right time to trade GBPUSD, one of the four pairs I selected to trade this week. Here is my perspective on the pair.
[B]GBPUSD:[/B] The market is in a consolidation mode. The market structure indicated that price has not yet retested the Brexit level created on June 24 and that price action is still in a weekly S/R zone. Overall, the order flow was that of a market in consolidation, looking for effective direction. Much likely good GBP fundamentals will help the pair re-test the Brexit level and the monthly pivot, which is still far above current price level. As there may be an upward move to test the Brexit level and the monthly pivot, I will wait until price action shows clarity of direction.
[B]I may be wrong.[/B] Trade safe.
The AUDJPY pair is my priority trading pair for this week and this is my perspective on it.
[B]AUDJPY:[/B] The market structure indicated that price was re-testing the long bearish move created by fundamental news re-Brexit on June 24, 2016 and the price action was at a weekly resistance zone. Much likely the price will reject the zone to the downside.
[B]I may be wrong.[/B] Trade safe.
Price has indicated a rejection of the zone I was targeting and I now have a southward trade on this pair.
Although EURNZD is the second pair on my selected pairs for trading this week, I’m not trading it yet. Here’s why, giving my perspective on the pair.
[B]EURNZD: [/B]The market structure indicated that the price action was re-testing the level from which the Brexit-price move downwards started/rejected on June 24, 2016, it was at a weekly resistance zone and the monthly pivot. The RSI pointed downwards from 50 and the ADX was bearing up but still under 25 – an indication that a bear pressure was still in play and gained momentum. Overall, the order flow context favoured a rejection of the zone to the downside. I will wait for price to re-test the Brexit zone and reject the weekly resistance zone and then look for a bearish-trade opportunity. [B]I may be wrong.[/B] Trade safe.
Market ranging, out with a marginal profit. Will stay on the side line for momentum to pick up. Trade safe.