The AUDUSD market has generally disposed southwards for much of the last 12 months. On the weekly time frame, market operation is respecting a falling trendline (blue) traceable to March 2018 but largely in consolidation. Last week, an insignificant bearish candlestick was printed at the confluence of the trendine and the 0.68580 horizontal support. Should this result in a bearish continuation, we may see the 0.66600 handle exposed. Technically, any northward move at the current location is likely to be temporary in nature.
On the daily time frame, price action made a double retracement to the 50 Fib zone of the downleg from 0.70758 to 0.66760. Presently, price action is disposed southwards from the 50 Fib zone but it printed an indecision candlestick last Friday. Technically, a double retracement to the same zone is likely to lead to exposure of the next Fib zone. We may expect price action to get to the 61.8 Fib zone, around 0.69390, before a southward continuation.
Presently, price action is consolidating around a minor S/R zone on the H4 time frame. This indicates a balanced market operation, and we may have to await directional clarity in the early part of this week. Nevertheless, I am bearish AUDUSD in the medium-term. Thus, a northward move of price action to the 61.8 Fib zone of the most recent downleg on the daily time frame will pique my interest to look for a bearish setup.
The XAUUSD market is operating in the 1519/1552 multi-year resistance zone. The zone is in confluence with the 61.8 Fib retracement of the downward move from 1805.95 in September 2012 to 1047.30 in November 2015. This zone has seen a series of sideways of market operations for quite a while.
A rectangular pattern has formed on the weekly time frame (magenta) and ‘wicky’ candesticks have been printed within it. The last four weeks have seen price action printing ‘wicky’ candlesticks around the support trendline and we may see a further northward push, perhaps to target the high of the bearish pinbar printed six weeks ago – which is around 1535.72. But there are a few minor barriers along the way.
On the daily time frame, price action is operating within a falling channel (blue). Although, presently, it is at the channel resistance trendline, the relatively big bullish candlestick printed last week Thursday may have a northward follow-through in the early part of this week. Besides, a rising trendline (black) is still in play as support. Thus, technically bulls are still favoured. However, a breakdown of the rising trendline (black) on a daily closing basis is likely to result in a bearish drive to expose the 1460.80 area.
On the monthly time frame, GBPCAD bears drove the market to the 1.58860 multi-year horizontal support zone in July 2019. Since then, bulls have seized the initiative to drive market operations northward to the upper boundary of the 1.66650/1.70850 horizontal channel. This represents a 61.8 Fib retracement of the downleg from May 2019 to July 2019.
On the weekly time frame, price action has been sideways within the 1.66650/1.70850 horizontal channel in the last three weeks; the upper boundary which represents a 61.8 Fib retracement of the most recent downward swing is in confluence with a significant horizontal resistance. Technically, any bullish move is likely to be short-lived as the market is in a consolidation phase of a dominant downtrend.
The daily time frame shows price action at the 61.8 Fib retracement level of the most recent downward swing. Topping candlesticks have been printed in the area, indicating probable rejection of the zone. Much likely, bulls may find it difficult to drive price action further northwards and a southward turnaround is imminent. Technically, there is bearish pressure for a southward turnaround.
The AUDUSD market has generally disposed bearish for quite a while. On the monthly time frame, market operation is respecting a falling trendline (blue) traceable to March 2013. However, recent market operation has been in the 0.66640 horizontal support zone from where, in October 2019, it printed a bullish candlestick. The next horizontal resistance is around 0.70990.
On the weekly time frame, price action in the past thirteen weeks has printed mainly lower-shadow candlesticks, indicating a bullish rejection of the 0.66640 horizontal support zone. A bullish follow-through has seen price action printing mainly bullish candlesticks in three of the past four weeks. This is technically an indication of bulls’ intention to retest the breached 0.70050/ 0.70990 zone.
On the daily time frame, price action is operating in a falling channel (magenta). Presently, it is located near the channel resistance trendline and in a confluence with the0.69130/ 0.69200 minor horizontal resistance where a relatively small bullish candlestick was printed last Friday. Note that an indecision candlestick was printed on Thursday in the same area after a bullish drive into the area on Wednesday. This indicates a slowing down of bullish momentum. If price action breaches this area northwards, we may see bulls target the horizontal resistance in the 0.70050/0.70990 zone. But a failure on the part of bulls will give bears the incentive for a southward turnaround from the zone.
The EURUSD market has been in consolidation for quite a while but the general disposition is southwards. On the monthly time frame, market operation is within a falling channel (red) but much of it in nine of the past twelve months has been within a horizontal channel spanning the 1.11400/1.14430 zone (bound by horizontal purple lines). In August 2019, bears took price action below the zone and was followed through bearishly in September. However, last month, bulls seized the initiative and effected a pull back for a re-entry of the 1.11400/1.14430 zone. A rising trendline (blue) traceable to September 2016 is acting as support.
On the weekly time frame, five weeks ago, a bullish pinbar was printed at the rising trendline (blue) seen on the monthly time frame and in the 1.09030 horizontal support zone. This was followed through for a bullish continuation move until two weeks ago when bears effected a pullback. However, last week, bulls influenced a bullish move that took price action back to inside of a congestion zone – the 1.11400/1.14430 zone (bound by horizontal purple lines) – where much of market operation has taken place in the past twelve months. Technically, we may see further northward move within the zone but the longer term technical outlook is bearish. A sustainable bearish momentum is technically feasible upon a breakdown of the rising trendline (blue) seen on the monthly time frame.
On the daily time frame, price action is respecting a rising trendline (black) and the technicals are in sync for a bullish influence. Technically, the short-term momentum is bullish and as long as the trendline holds on a daily closing basis, we can expect bulls to be favoured. Nevertheless, there are a few barriers northwards which bulls may have to clear. The 1.13470/1.13840 area is a significant horizontal resistance which may witness sideways or turnaround of price action. Generally, the medium-term outlook favours a southward turnaround, perhaps upon a northward retracement to the 1.13050/1.13470 horizontal resistance zone.
The AUDUSD is primarily disposed southwards. On the weekly time frame, market is operating within an expanding falling wedge (black). Presently, price action is operating near the wedge resistance trendline where a bearish candlestick was printed last week. This area is in confluence with the 0.68630/0.70520 horizontal resistance zone (bound by blue horizontal lines). Technically, the area is susceptible to a zone flip for a downward ride but as price action still has a lot of room to operate in the zone, we may have to await how the market handles the area in the early part of this week before looking for a sell trading opportunity.
On the daily time frame, price action is presently respecting a rising trendline (magenta) and indecision candlesticks have been printed around the 50/61.8 Fib zone of the most recent down leg. Recent technical patterns on the daily time frame point to the likelihood of a brief northward move to, say, the 61.8/78.6 Fib zone before a feasible southward turnaround; this area is bound by gold horizontal lines. Nevertheless, a significant breakdown of the rising trendline (magenta) on a daily closing basis will dispose the bears for a southward continuation. I am bearish AUDUSD.
On the H4 time frame, recent price action has printed low-tail candlesticks around the rising trendline (magenta) seen on the daily time frame. The last session on Friday printed a bullish but miniature candlestick, indicating a lack of directional momentum. But technicals on the H4 time frame indicate the likelihood of a brief move northwards, which is not likely to be sustainable as there are a few technical barriers to be contended with by bulls. A southward turnaround is likely to materialize after a brief pullback or sideways of market operation.
The USDJPY market has been consolidating within the 104.000/111.080 zone (bound by purple horizontal lines) since January 2019. On the monthly time frame, market operation is generally within a falling channel (red) but the 104.000/111.080 zone has been attracting much of market interest since January 2019. In August 2019, the market printed a low-tailed bearish candlestick to reject the lower boundary (104.000) of the zone. There was a bullish follow-up in September before an indecision candlestick was printed in October. We may see a retest of the 111.080 upper boundary which was rejected bearishly in May 2019.
On the weekly time frame, the order flow context and the predominance of bullish candlesticks among recently printed ones favour bulls. We may expect a bullish continuation to target the 111.080 horizontal resistance before a bearish turnaround. Nevertheless, a significant bearish breakdown of the rising trendline (blue) will incentivize bears for a southward drive. It is important to remember that the bigger technical market operation is within a falling channel (red).
Technicals and the order flow on the daily time frame favour bulls. I am bullish USDJPY. Nevertheless, a significant breakdown of the rising trendline (blue) on a daily closing basis will negate the bullish bias.
The GBPUSD market has been sideways for a while but slowly grinding southwards. On the monthly time frame, a falling channel (magenta) has been formed by market operation. Last month, the channel resistance trendline was breached northwards by bulls. However, the candlestick printed entered the immediate horizontal resistance around 1.30370 (blue) and we may have a reaction in the area.
On the weekly time frame, a flag has been formed by recent price action just below the 1.30370 horizontal resistance after a northward breach four weeks ago of the falling channel (magenta) seen on the monthly time frame. Last week, a bearish candlestick was formed within the flag. Looking left we can see that the candlestick nestled at a horizontal support around the 1.27700 area. The area is also in confluence with the 61.8 Fib retracement of the downleg from 1.31700 in the first week of May 2019. Such an area is technically susceptible to a southward turnaround but the flag formation calls for caution. We may see a brief northward move towards the 78.6 Fib zone, around 1.29120/1.30300, before a sustainable southward turnaround.
The largely miniature or insignificant candlesticks recently printed on the H4 time frame indicate a lack of directional momentum and we should await clarity in the market in the early part of this week. From the weekly time frame, it is apparent that generally price action is at a zone where we can expect a reaction for a southward disposition. But there is still room for at least a brief northward move before any sustainable bearish drive can materialize. So, I will await a northward pullback to an area of value before looking for a sell trading opportunity.
The EURUSD market continues to grind slowly southwards even though it is experiencing sideways operations. On the weekly time frame, price action is presently below the 1.11438/1.12060 S/R zone (bound by magenta horizontal lines). The area has flipped as resistance after a bearish continuation candlestick was printed last week. This may see bears target the 1.08700/1.07600 multi-year horizontal support zone from which market operation rallied in late April 2017.
On the daily time frame, price action has broken down a rising trendline (black) traceable to September 30, 2019. Presently it is located at the 1.10320/1.10190 horizontal support zone where a bearish continuation candlestick was printed last week Friday. We may see a sideways of price action in the area before any further southward drive. A break below the 1.10320/1.10190 zone is likely to see bears target the 1.08880 handle.
The NZDUSD market operation is within a falling channel (red) on the weekly time frame. However, presently, the momentum is in favour of bulls who are taking market operation northwards within the channel. The horizontal resistance around 0.65450 may be a challenge to a bullish drive.
On the daily time frame, recent price action is respecting a rising trendline (blue) within the descending channel (red) seen on the weekly time frame. The technicals are in favour of a bullish continuation but there are e a few barriers which bulls have to contend with, e.g. the 0.65450 horizontal resistance and the 0.66080 horizontal resistance area (magenta).
The EURAUD market has been operating within the 1.59250 /1.64055 zone in somewhat a sideways fashion since May 2019. On the monthly time frame, the zone is within the 50 Fib retracement of the drop from the 2.05895 high in February 2009 to the 1.16040 low in August 2012. Based on the fact that the rising trendline (red) from more recent market operations has not been broken down in spite of recent bearish attempts, it is apparent that there is still room for further northward move.
On the weekly time frame, three weeks ago a bearish breakdown of the rising trendline (red) seen on the monthly time frame was attempted and continued by another bearish candlestick two weeks ago. But last week, bulls seized the initiative and effected a northward move taking price action back to hit the trendline. Should bulls succeed in making a follow-through this week, we may see a further northward drive above the trendline.
On the daily time frame, recent price action is operating within a rising wedge (blue) but a falling trendline (magenta) is still in play as resistance. Presently, price action is operating below the trendline, with a relatively big bullish candlestick printed on Thursday advancing just a few pips below it. Friday saw price action printing a relatively small bearish candlestick in reaction. We should await how price action handles the trendline in the early part of this week.
Recent price action on the H4 time frame is operating around the 61.8 Fib zone of the most recent downleg from the high of October 16, 2019 to the low of November 7, 2019. Price operation since November 14 has been influenced mainly by bears and we may see bears continue the initiative to target the rising trendline (gold) still in play as resistance. But its significant breakdown on a daily closing basis is likely to give impetus for a bearish continuation. However, any bullish initiative is likely to target the next horizontal resistance around 1,62925/1.63240 (magenta). The area is in confluence with the 78.6 Fib zone and technically more amenable to a southward turnaround.
My bias in the short-term is bullish. However, I will look for a sell trading opportunity should bulls take market operation to an area of value, say the 1,62925/1.63240 zone (magenta).
The GBPUSD market is generally disposed downwards although presently the momentum is bullish. A long-term falling trendline (red) traceable to October 2007 is in play as resistance although it is still far away to be relevant in the near term. But a shorter term falling trendline (blue) traceable to July 2014 is being respected by market operations.
Recent price action has formed a flag or falling channel on the weekly time frame. This is along the falling near-term trendline (blue) seen on the monthly time frame. Technically we may see a further bullish move.
Since hitting a 61.8 Fib retracement of the dominant downleg on the monthly time frame in January 2018, EURUSD market operation has disposed southwards in the main. Presently, market operation is around the 23.6 Fib zone where a bullish candlestick printed last month nested. Looking left, that area also adjoins a horizontal S/R reaction zone – the 1.11400/1.08650 zone (bound by purple horizontal lines).
On the weekly time frame, market operation has carved out a falling wedge pattern (red) and price action has been sideways for first three of the past five weeks just below the wedge resistance trendline. Two weeks ago, a bearish candlestick was printed for directional impact but last week bulls made a feeble attempt to counter only to print a miniature candlestick. In the main, bears seem to be more influential presently.
On the daily time frame, recent price action is respecting a rising trendline (blue) and as long as the trendline holds on a daily closing basis, we can expect the bulls to maintain their influence. However, we should be wary of the horizontal resistance zone around 1.112230/1.12100 (magenta) which may hinder a bullish drive and from which we may have a southward turnaround. I hold a bearish bias on EURUSD; but I expect a brief northward move first.
The southward mode of the NZDUSD market has given way to a northward correction. On the weekly time frame, sideways operation has been the mood in the past five weeks. Last week, an indecision candlestick was printed on the weekly time frame. Any further northward correction may likely target the next horizontal resistance around 0.64900/0.65600. Nevertheless, that is likely to offer an opportunity to look for a sell trade.
Price action on the H4 time frame is within a rising wedge (blue). In view of the bigger technical picture, a feasible proposition is to look for a sell trade upon a northward drive to an area of value, say the 0.64900/0.65600 zone. A breakdown of the wedge is likely to give impetus for a southward continuation. I am bearish NZDUSD.
The XAUUSD market is presently in a ranging mood. On the weekly time frame, price action is located at the lower boundary of a horizontal channel (1456.52/1516.11). The relatively big candlestick printed three weeks ago suggests a bearish influence in the market. A follow-through this week may see bears target the low of the relatively big bullish candlestick printed 16 weeks ago; which is around 1436.70.
Price action on the daily time frame is within a falling wedge (blue). Technicals are synced for a bearish mode but we may experience a retracement northward within the wedge based on the order flow patterns. This is more likely as price action is located at a horizontal support around 1456.52. Any significant breakdown of the wedge may embolden bears to drive price action southwards.
The bearish pinbar printed by price action on the GBPCAD weekly time frame last week portends a bearish intent in the market. The pinbar was printed at a confluence of the 1.71000 horizontal resistance and the 61.8 Fib zone of the recent downward swing from the high of 1.77270 to the low of 1.58730.
On the daily time frame, price action is respecting a rising trendline (red) from recent lows. Presently, market operation is around the trendline which the bearish candlestick printed last Friday pierced. We may see some sideways of price action in the area in the early part of this week but a breakdown of the trendline may embolden bears for a further southward drive.
A pennant (blue) has formed on the GBPUSD weekly time frame. Its upper boundary is aligned with a falling trendline traceable to March 2019. The pennant is located within the 61.8 and 78.6 Fib zone of the most dominant downward swing from March 2019. Last week, the market printed a bearish candlestick from the upper boundary of the pattern and its bearish breakdown may expose the 1.25650 support zone.
The daily time frame shows a bearish impulse while recent price action is within a corrective phase. Presently, price action is located at the 1.28190 horizontal support area, where we may have a sideways of price action before a bearish continuation. Technically, a breakdown of the pennant (blue) seen on the weekly time frame is in the offing and a bearish bias on the GBPUSD seems to be supported. I am bearish GBPUSD.
The southward mode of the EURUSD has not been smooth owing to sideways of market operation. On the weekly time frame, price action printed a relatively small bearish candlestick last week as opposed to a relatively small bullish candlestick printed a week earlier. Technically the southward momentum has paused.
On the daily time frame, the downleg from 1.11690 on November 4, 2019 to 1.09950 on November 13, 2019 saw a 61.8 Fib retracement last Thursday. There was a bearish follow-up on Friday when price action printed a relatively big bearish candlestick. We may expect a bearish continuation this week.
Recent price action on the H4 time frame printed bearish candlesticks during last Friday sessions and stalled around a rising trendline (magenta) from the low of October 1, 2019. A breakdown of the trendline may see bears muster confidence for a bearish drive. Failure of bears to breach the trendline may see bulls take price action for a retest of the 1.10500 horizontal resistance.
Nice support line but I expect a breakout lower after short-lived bounce, dollar usually gets stronger before Christmas. We have also December tariffs on the the table but lets see
