EURJPY Weekly Technical Outlook
The EURJPY is bullish in mode but market operation is still disposed southwards overall. On the weekly time frame, bulls are taking market operation northwards towards the resistance trendline of a falling channel (black). Last week, price action printed a bullish candlestick with an upper tail which nestled at the channel resistance line; the upper tail indicating a weakness in bullish momentum. However, should bulls breach the channel resistance trendline northwards, they will have to contend with a horizontal channel that spans the 123.210/124.770 zone (bound by red horizontal lines). But failure of price action to break out of the falling channel will result in a southward drive within the channel.
On the daily time frame, recent price action is operating in a rising channel (blue) within the larger falling channel (black) seen on the weekly time frame. Last week Friday, a long upper-tailed indecision candlestick was printed below the intersection of the falling channel resistance trendline and the rising channel resistance trendline. The area is also in confluence with the 123.210 horizontal resistance and the 61.8 Fib retracement zone of the dominant down leg from April 18, 2019. It is technically an area susceptible to potential southward turnaround of price action.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Trap
USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook
The USDJPY market is still consolidating. On the weekly time frame, market operation is within a falling channel (black). Presently, price action is at the channel resistance trendline and in a location which is in confluence with the 109.340 horizontal resistance. The area has experienced a sideways of price action for the last three weeks. Are we going to see a southward turnaround to within the falling channel this week or will there be a breakout of price action above the channel?
On the daily time frame, recent price action is within a rising wedge (blue) within the larger falling channel (black) seen on the weekly time frame. Bulls have taken market operation northward towards the wedge resistance trendline and some pips below the resistance trendline of the larger falling channel (black). Last week Friday, a long doji-like candlestick was printed just below the wedge resistance trendline and at the 109.340 horizontal resistance area. How price action handles the area in the early part of this week should be watched. We may have some sideways of price action in the area before any directional clarity. Although I am looking for a bearish turnaround, I will await a confirmatory price action on a daily closing basis.
On the H4 time frame, price action is presently disposed southwards within the rising wedge (blue) seen on the daily time frame but still located a few pips below the wedge resistance trendline. This is indicative of a potential southward turnaround. But a sell trade is not likely to be feasible without a retest of the 109.540/109.630 horizontal resistance zone (bound by magenta horizontal lines). I am bearish USDJPY.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Trap
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
The uncertainty surrounding the UK General Election that kept the GBPUSD sideways for long was resolved last week Thursday, and, immediately, the market went for a bullish spike to a multi-year high around the 1.35140 area. After a sprint to the 1.35140 area, market operation ended last week with a bullish print that closed at the 1.33290 zone; which was a former multi-year horizontal resistance. We should await how the market handles the zone in the early part of this week.
On the daily time frame, the market is overextended and is due for a pullback, perhaps, to the 1.31850 zone initially; it was the area of the recent strong rally northwards.
The rising trendline (magenta) from recent swing lows on the H4 time frame is rather acute and susceptible to a breakdown. A significant break below it and the structural low around 1.31200 on a daily closing basis will likely lead to a southward turnaround.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Trap
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
The EURUSD market is rather ambivalent. On the weekly time frame, recent price action is ranging within the 1.09590/1.11650 zone (bound by red horizontal lines). Last week, market operation printed a bullish candlestick which pierced the upper boundary of the zone but retracted to close 35 pips below it to end up with an upper shadow, which indicates a slowdown of bullish momentum. A bigger outlook is seen in a falling trendline (black) from the high of May 2018, which was respected by the last weekly close. Apparently, any bullish move may be hindered unless the zone is significantly breached northwards.
On the daily time frame, price action printed a long, upper-tailed doji-like candlestick below the 1.11650 area last week Friday, and it respected the falling trendline (black) seen on the weekly time frame. This is an indication of a weakness in bullish momentum. Recent technical patterns on the daily time frame support the likelihood of a bearish follow through.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Trap
If the EURUSD price action breaches the 1.11650 horizontal resistance zone northward, we may have an extension to the 1.12280 zone from where I will be looking for a sell trading opportunity with an initial profit target to the 1.10870 area.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Trap
The upcoming holidays pose serious liquidity challenges and the technicals can be particularly flimsy. I will be analyzing only a few pairs this week. There is nothing particularly spectacular to be expected until sometime in January 2020.
Trade safe.
Trap
AUDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
The AUD USD is generally disposed southward but the short-term momentum favours bulls. On the weekly time frame, a falling trendline (red) traceable to February 2018 has been breached northward and market operation is presently at the 0.69990 horizontal resistance zone (magenta). The zone was rejected for a southward move seven weeks ago and it is presently being retested. It is in confluence with the 61.8 Fib retracement of the downleg from 0.70564 to 0.66760. We may see a southward turnaround of price action at the zone. However, any significant bullish breach of the zone may see price action target the next horizontal resistance around 0.70300 (purple).
On the daily time frame, a double top formation by recent price action can be seen at the 0.69990 zone. Last week Friday, the market printed an indecision candlestick at the second top formation, indicating a slowdown of bullish momentum. Nevertheless, we may see a brief northward move before any bearish turnaround.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Trap
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
The bearish candlestick printed on the GBPUSD weekly time frame last week nestled a few pips to the significant 1.29400 horizontal support zone (green). Technically, we may expect a sideways or northward retracement of price action before any serious bearish attempt to tackle the zone.
On the daily time frame, a rising trendline (red) is acting as resistance to recent price action. A long upper-tailed doji-like candlestick was printed at the trendline on Friday, indicating a pause in bearish drive which may result in a brief northward pullback. But a significant breakdown of the trendline on a daily closing basis will likely give confidence to bears to aim for a southward drive.
On the H4 time frame, presently, price action is disposed southward. But given the relatively small candlesticks recently printed after an initial bearish strength, we may have a northward pullback before any further bearish drive. A likely area which a northward pullback may target is the 1.31000 immediate horizontal support turned resistance or, by extension, the 1.31000/1.32100 zone (bound by magenta horizontal lines).
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Trap
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
The EURUSD market keeps grinding slowly southward. On the weekly time frame, presently, price action has rejected the 1.11650 horizontal resistance zone (red) southwards after a bullish retest two weeks ago. The zone was initially rejected seven weeks ago. However, the rejecting, bearish candlestick printed last week is miniature in size and has a shadow at both ends – indicating a struggle with bulls.
On the daily time frame, price action has broken below the 1.11650 zone (red) and is presently at the 1.10790 horizontal support zone (magenta), which a relatively big bearish candlestick pierced on Friday but failed to breach. Nevertheless, a significant breakdown of the zone on a daily closing basis will likely give impetus to a bearish continuation.
On the H4 time frame, price action printed a bullish candlestick at the close of the last session on Friday from a few pips below the 1.10790 area (magenta) and inched a bit above it. Any bullish follow-through in the early part of this week may see a retracement to the 38.2/61.8 Fib zone of the recent bearish impulsive move, which is at the 1.10950/1.11110 zone (bound by purple horizontal lines). Thereafter, we may see a southward turnaround.
**I may be wrong.**Trade safe and prosper.
Trap
I will not be trading this week but I have analysed some pairs here for information purpose and to give an idea of potential market plays. I wish all members of the Forum a successful and rewarding year 2020.
Trap
USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook
The USDCAD has been consolidating within the 1.30090/1.33230 horizontal channel (purple) since July 2019. On the weekly time frame, presently bears are taking market operation towards the lower boundary of the channel and the technicals are in support of further bearish move.
On the H4 time frame, bulls attempted a northward push towards the end of last week Friday’s session. Nevertheless, such a move is not likely to last as the daily time frame is generally disposed southward. A falling trendline (blue) from recent highs is still in play and may act as resistance to any further bullish ambition.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Trap
EURNZD Weekly Technical Outlook
The EURNZD market is disposed southward. On the weekly time frame, price action has broken below the 78.6 Fib zone (red) of the downleg from the high of 1.79250 to the low of 1.63270. Presently, market operation is at the 1.66720 S/R area; where we may have a sideways of price action. However, the technicals favour a southward continuation thereafter. For example, the sideways of price action experienced three weeks ago had a bearish follow-up but the bearish momentum declined as it approached the 1.66720 horizontal support zone. An initial target of any bearish drive is the 1.64050/1.63360 horizontal support zone.
The daily time frame shows that a northward retracement of price action was initiated last week Friday. A possible target of such a retracement is the 1.68550/1.69500 area, where the most recent major sideways of price action took place. Besides, the falling trendline (black) is likely to act as a resistance.
Price action on the H4 time frame is respecting a minor falling trendline (magenta) from recent highs. But any northward breach of the trendline will have to contend with the major trendline (black) seen on the daily time frame. At any rate any such movement is likely to be temporary in nature and will give way to a southward turnaround.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Trap
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
The GBPUSD market is operating in a positive mode but with limited momentum. On the monthly time frame, market operation has rejected northwards a falling trendline (blue) traceable to September 2013. However, the northward momentum has declined after the UK General Election surge of price action to the horizontal resistance zone around 1.35140 (red). Thereafter, a southward mode was initiated as bears drove market operation southward to the 1.30770 horizontal S/R area where the drive was resisted by bulls.
On the weekly time frame, two weeks ago, price action printed a relatively big bearish candlestick to retest the significant 1.29820/1.28480 horizontal congestion area (bound by purple horizontal lines), near the breached falling trendline (blue) seen on the monthly time frame. Last week, the market printed a relatively small bullish candlestick from the zone. But this candlestick is not significant enough to flip the zone for a bullish drive and we may have to await further price action.
On the daily time frame, price action is on a northward mode but located near the 1.31190/1.32000 horizontal resistance zone (bound by magenta horizontal lines). So, we have to await further price action in the area.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Trap
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
The EURSUD market is generally disposed southward on the monthly time frame (blue falling trendline). And the July 2019 downleg is still influential. However, presently, market operation is on the positive mood around its 61.8 Fib retracement zone (purple) and the 1.12560 area (magenta) represents the 78.6 Fib retracement, which may be a target of any further bullish move. However, as the market is generally bearish, that area may see a southward turnaround; also the minor falling trendline (green) may act as resistance. But any significant break above the 1.13650 area (red) may lead to further bullish momentum
Price action on the weekly time frame is around the 1.12000 area (purple), a significant horizontal area which has been tested several times in the recent past and price action ranged below the area in the past three weeks. Last week, the market printed a bullish candlestick which touched the area but retraced, indicating a struggle with bears. We may see further struggle in the area in the early part of this week. Any bullish advantage may see bulls target the high of the bullish candlestick printed 21 weeks ago, which is around 1.12560 (magenta).
On the daily time frame, price action has broken above a falling trendline (black) traceable to August 2018. Last week Friday, market operation printed a relatively strong bullish candlestick above the trendline. Presently, price action is located around the 61.8 Fib retracement zone of the southward drop from the high of June 25, 2019 to the low of October 1, 2019. Looking left, we can see that the area has seen a lot of topping formation and, technically, we may have a bearish challenge to any further bullish drive. Very much likely, any further bullish move will not go far; perhaps not beyond the 1.12560 zone (magenta), which is proximal to the 78.6 Fib zone of the June 25, 2019 southward drop.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Trap
USDJPY market operation is at a critical horizontal resistance zone, the 109.460/108.600 area (bound by red horizontal lines) and it is intersecting with a falling trendline (blue) traceable to September 2018. I am not trading this week but a significant breakdown of the zone on a daily closing basis will pique my interest to look for a sell trading opportunity next week. Any bearish drive thereafter is likely to expose the 104.830 handle (green).
I wish you all a successful and rewarding year 2020.
Trade safe and prosper.
Trap
As we start another trading year, make it your goal to trap the markets more than you are trapped. Below is a video that you may find interesting in that regard. As always, I have no financial interest in the presenter neither am I holding him up as a ‘guru’ to follow.
Trade safe and prosper.
Trap
EURCAD Weekly Technical Outlook
The southward move of market operation on the EURCAD from June 2019 experienced a 61.8 Fib retracement in August of the same year. On the monthly time frame, after a bullish move in October 2019, market operation rejected the 1.46880 horizontal resistance area (purple) and is disposing southward. Besides, the market is operating below a rising trendline (red) traceable to August 2012 after breaching it southward in July 2019.
Price action on the weekly time frame is consolidating. Presently, it is at the 1.45100 horizontal support zone and we may see a slowdown in bearish movement. But, technically, bears are supported to maintain a strong influence in the market; which may expose the significant 1.41890 horizontal support zone (magenta) within a few weeks.
On the daily time frame, price action is largely sideways within a rising channel (blue) but technically we are in a bearish environment. A significant breakdown of the channel on a daily closing basis will likely give way to a bearish continuation.
On the H4 time frame, price action has broken below the rising channel (blue) seen on the daily time frame. However, it printed bullish candlesticks in the last three sessions on Friday, and we may see a northward retracement to an area of value before a southward turnaround.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Ttrap
GBPCAD Weekly Technical Outlook
The southward drop of GBPCAD market operation from the high of June 2016 to the low of October 2016 saw a series of bottoming formation before a 78.6 Fib retracement in March 2018. Since then, market operation has rejected the 78.6 Fib zone and the 61.8 Fib zone (which was retested several times). Last month, a long upper-tailed doji-like candlestick, call it a bearish pinbar or shooting star, was printed in final rejection of the 61.8 Fib zone with the lower part nestling around the 38.2 Fib zone. Technically, this favours a southward disposition of the market but we have to see what obtains on the weekly time frame.
On the weekly time frame, bears have dominated market operation in the past three weeks. The strong bearish drop of three weeks ago will, however, require stronger follow-through this week for price action to break below the 1.70130/1.67160 congestion zone for any bearish momentum to be sustainable.
On the daily time frame, price action is operating within a rising channel (red) and presently disposed southwards near the channel support trendline. Price action has to break down the channel support trendline and, perhaps, the 1.68690 horizontal support zone before we can have confidence in a bearish momentum. Otherwise, we may have sideways of price action and even a northward retracement this week.
The H4 time frame offers some technical clarity as bulls are presently taking price action further northward within the rising channel (red) seen on the daily time frame. Technically and looking at the recent order flow context, this is potentially a temporary move and we may see a southward turnaround soon.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Trap
USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook
After a bearish move in June 2019, the USDCAD market went into consolidation for five months. In December 2019, the market printed a bearish continuation candlestick on the monthly time frame. Based on the recent technical pattern on the monthly time frame, we may expect market operation to retest the low of the bullish candlestick printed in October 2018, which is around 1.27810.
On the weekly time frame, market operation has broken down a rising trendline (red) traceable to September 2017 and is presently within a falling channel (blue). It is disposed southward within the channel where it is located at the 1.30050 horizontal support. The candlestick printed last week has a lower shadow, indicating that bulls were resisting the influence of bears in the area. But we may expect a bearish continuation if price action breaks down the zone. Alternatively, a bullish influence of price action may attempt a retest of the broken down rising trendline (red) or the channel resistance trendline.
On the daily time frame, the order flow context favours bears but, on Friday, bulls attempted a northward retracement of price action. Technically, this is temporary in nature and we can expect bears to seize control of the market upon retracement of price action to an area of value; such an area of value is the 1.30260/1.30890 minor horizontal resistance zone (bound by magenta horizontal lines) or the broken down rising trendline (red).
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Trap
USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook
The 104.540 area is a significant horizontal support zone on the USDJPY market. The technical pattern on the monthly time frame, with squeezing of price action along a falling triangle (red), points to an attempt by bears to target the zone. Apparently, a bearish environment is at play on the monthly time frame.
On the weekly time frame, price action has made a 78.6 Fib retracement of the bearish drop from 113.514 to 104.540. It later attempted a bullish drive but failed to go beyond the 50/61.8 Fib zone. This zone witnessed a sideways of price action for a few weeks but it was breached southwards with a bearish print last week. Nevertheless, we may still have a sideways of price action, if not a brief pullback, as the present location, 108.100 is a horizontal support zone with a confluence of factors; e.g. a psychological round number and the 38.2 Fib zone of the bearish drop earlier mentioned. Thereafter, we can expect bears to attempt a southward drive.
On the daily time frame, market operation has significantly broken down a rising wedge (blue) and we can expect bears to influence a southward continuation.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Trap
