GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
The GBPUSD market operation has been bullish since July and presently the interim candlestick print in August is still bullish. Market operation is presently at the 1.33500 area, which is more than 150 pips below the 1.35100 horizontal resistance area (magenta) traceable to December 2019.
The order flow context on the weekly time frame favours bulls. Last week, market operation printed a bullish continuation candlestick after consolidating for three weeks at the 1.3000/1.31300 zone (sandybrown). We may see further bullish move towards the 1.35100 horizontal resistance (magenta).
Technically, price action on the daily time frame favours bulls. It has moved further northward of an outer rising trendline (red) traceable to March 2020 to respect an inner rising trendline (blue) traceable to June 2020. This, technically, indicates an increase in bullish momentum. The immediate significant resistance is around the 1.35100 area (magenta) while the 1.30000 area is the horizontal support.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Trap
XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
After the relatively big bullish move in July, XAUUSD market operation retraced from the 2075.05 multi-year high it created in August. On the monthly time frame, in August, market operation printed a bearish rejection candlestick from the multi-year high. Presently, the interim September print is around the 1911.40 previous multi-year resistance turned support. Technically, the 1980.60/1911.40 zone (blue) is the prevailing operating zone.
On the weekly time frame, four weeks ago, a bearish rejection print, in the shape of an engulfing candlestick, signposted the intent of bears to effect a southward market operation. However, this attempt lacked a bearish follow-through as market operation has turned sideways in the past three weeks within the 1980.60/1911.40 zone (blue). Nevertheless, the long lower wick on the bearish candlestick printed four weeks ago indicate the potential for bearish market orders. And we may see further bearish move this week.
The daily time frame shows a series of Fibonacci retracements of the downward swing from 2075.10 to 1862.40, including 61.8 and 50 Fib retracements. Last Friday, the indecision candlestick printed around the 1947.60 area represented a 38.2 Fib retracement. Technically, we may expect further bearish move in the early part of this week, but we should be wary of a rising trendline (red) traceable to March.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Trap
USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook
After revisiting the multi-year high created in January 2016 around 1.46670 in March, USDCAD market operation on the monthly time frame has disposed southward. Presently it is near the 1.29270 area, from which it started the bullish run in January that culminated in the bullish high of March. The 1.29270 area is technically the prevailing horizontal support while the 1.33130 area is technically the operating horizontal resistance.
Technicals still favour bears on the weekly time frame. The order flow context is still supportive of bears while market operation is still respecting a falling trendline (red) traceable to March. However, market operation has entered a congestion area, the 1.33130/1.29270 zone (Sandybrown), and we may see some bullish pullback or a weakness of bearish momentum in the early part of this week.
Recent price action on the daily time frame consolidated in the 1.30970/1.30160 zone (blue) for three days before a bullish breakout last week Thursday. However, bears effected an opposing move on Friday to restore parity. We should await how price action handles the zone in the early part of this week. While a bullish breakout of the zone is not technically a trend reversal, as the falling trendline (red) is a potential resistance, there is potential for some bullish momentum until technically the 1.33130 horizontal resistance area. A bearish breakdown of the zone will have to significantly breakdown the 1.29270 horizontal support area for a southward continuation to be sustainable.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Trap
GBPJPY Weekly Technical Outlook
GBPJPY market operation has been on a positive mode since July after a 3-month sideways that began in April. On the monthly time frame, technically, in January 2018 the market had about 50 Fib retracement of the downward swing from 195.270 (in August 2015) to 124.000 (in October 2016). It witnessed a 38.2 Fib retracement in April 2018, which it maintained and retested for several months. Presently, it is at the 23.6 Fib retracement area, around 141.080, while the 144.340 area (magenta) is technically the prevailing horizontal resistance.
On the weekly time frame, market operation is disposed northward. Two weeks ago, it broke above the 139.700 upper boundary of a horizontal consolidation. However, last week saw limited bullish follow-through as market operation printed an indecision candlestick. Technically, recent market operation is apparently forming a ‘W’ pattern, with the completion of the outer leg likely to be around the 144.340 area (magenta). Should this be the case, we may see further bullish push this week.
Price action on the daily time frame still favours bulls. An outer rising trendline (red) traceable to March 2020 is still intact while an inner rising trendline (blue) based on close of recent candlesticks is being respected. However, there is an increase in bearish pressure as price action enters the congestion zone of 141.080/144.340 (magenta). Nevertheless, bulls are still favoured to make further northward push, at least in the early part of this week, and the bullish pinbar printed last week Friday at the 141.080 horizontal support area may be factored into this consideration.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Trap
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
After a relatively strong bullish move in August, this month, GBPUSD market operation inched to the 1.35060 horizontal resistance area (magenta) before seeing some bearish pressure.
On the weekly time frame, after a strong bullish breakout from a 3-week consolidation two weeks ago, last week, market operation printed a bearish rejection candlestick from around the 1.35060 horizontal resistance area. The area is traceable to December 2019 and susceptible to a bearish turnaround. The 1.30200 area is technically the immediate horizontal support.
On the daily time frame, despite the technically favorable bullish environment, there is an increase in bearish pressure. For example, an outer rising trendline (red) is intact and an inner rising trendline (blue) is still being respected, but the order flow context is recently seeing an increase in bearish prints. Besides, between Tuesday and Friday last week, price action printed candlesticks that significantly favour bears. However, this does not mean that bears have taken control of the market.
The H4 time frame shows an increase in bearish pressure recently given the increase in the pullbacks and corrective moves, and the break of a minor rising trendline (black). However, bulls tried to regain market influence on Friday as the last two 4Hr candlesticks were bullish, but they failed to breach the high of the relatively big bearish candlestick preceding them. Nevertheless, this bullish intent indicates that bears are not yet in control of the market. Bulls still have the potential for further northward move. The 1.33560 area, or a retest of the minor rising trendline (black), is a technical target for such bullish move. The 1.30140 area (Sandybrown) is the immediate horizontal support and technically an initial target of bears. I will await what price action does in the early part of this week before making directional commitment.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Trap
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
After a relatively strong bullish move that started in March, EURUSD market operation on the monthly time frame is presently showing a weakness in its northward push. The bullish print in August is significantly less potent than the one printed in July. This month, market operation inched towards the prevailing horizontal resistance around 1.20810 (magenta) before retracing below it. The 1.15900 area (light green) is technically the next horizontal support on the monthly time frame.
There has been sideways of market operation on the weekly time frame since the last five weeks, with the 1.17590/1.19120 zone (black) being the operating zone. Two weeks ago, a relatively big bullish candlestick was printed in the zone but last week, bears effected a relatively potent opposing move in the zone.
Price action on the daily time frame has produced topping patterns at a horizontal resistance area that was last visited in mid-May 2018. Nevertheless, looking left, it is apparent that the 1.20810 (magenta) is a nearby horizontal resistance that is technically within the reach of bulls. Therefore, we should await what price action does in the early part of this week. Technically, a southward turnaround is imminent.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Trap
USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook
Two weeks ago, USDCAD market operation entered the 1.30420/1.29000 horizontal support area (Sandybrown) that has held for several times in the past and which was last visited in December 2019. Last week, a bullish rejection candlestick was printed just above the zone and surged towards the 1.33050 horizontal resistance area (magenta) but failed to breach it before being resisted by bears, leaving an upper shadow. While the 1.33050/1.34020 area is the next horizontal resistance, the 1.30420/1.29000 area is the operating horizontal support. Technically, an incipient upward leg of an ‘M’ pattern began with the December 2019 bullish market operation and the completion downleg is presently around 1.30420. Any bullish pullback to the 1.33050/1.34020 area is technically a retest of the neckline of the ‘M’ pattern, which will likely give way to a bearish turnaround.
Two parallel falling trendlines (red) traceable to March 18, 2020 provide a falling channel for corrective retracement of the USDCAD price action which is generally grinding southward on the daily time frame. Last week Tuesday, price action printed a bullish candlestick that surged to within the channel, but the bearish print of Wednesday took price action back below the channel. The bullish candlestick printed on Thursday was relatively smaller than the bearish print of Wednesday and failed to enter the channel, while the Friday print was an ambivalent candlestick. Apparently, there is limited bullish for a sustainable northward drive and any further bullish price action is likely to be temporary in nature. The 1.33050 area (magenta) is the immediate horizontal resistance.
A bearish flag (blue) is apparent on the USDCAD H4 time frame. Technically, a breakdown of such a pattern will likely lead to a southward continuation. Presently, price action is sideways within the lower part of the pattern. Personally, I will await how price action handles the pattern.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Trap
XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
XAUUSD technicals on the weekly time frame, e.g. two rising trendlines – outer (red) and inner (blue), and the order flow context support bulls. However, the sideways and ‘wicky’ market operation at the 1908.50/1990.00 prevailing horizontal resistance zone (magenta) indicate an increase in bearish pressure and a weakening of bullish momentum. Nevertheless, as the zone is wide, it affords potential opportunities for feasible trading setups in either direction. At any rate, it is important to consider the prevailing momentum on a lower time frame for effective timing of market entry.
On the daily time frame, price action is consolidating within a symmetrical triangle. Technically, we may see a breakout on either side, but recent technical prints indicate a weakness in bullish influence and we may see bears seize the initiative in the early part of this week.
The H4 time frame shows a series of Fibonacci retracements from the downward swing of 2055.20 to 1864.45, with the 78.6, 61.8 and 50 Fib levels already rejected. Presently, price action is at the 38.2 Fib level, where it turned sideways last week Friday. We may see a rejection of the area in the early part of this week. The 1908.50 area is the next horizontal support and technically an initial target of any bearish move.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Trap
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
The EURUSD market operation is presently sideways at the 1.17820/1.19250 horizontal resistance zone (magenta) from where it restored a southward drop in September 2018.
The EURUSD market operation is sideways on the weekly time frame at the 1.17820/1.19250 horizontal resistance zone (magenta) traceable to September 2018. The candlestick prints in the past three weeks point to an increase in bearish pressure and, technically, with a potential for a southward turnaround. The 1.15100/1.14100 zone (Sandybrown) is a significant horizontal support on the weekly time frame.
On the daily time frame, last week Tuesday, a bearish price action attempted a break below a rising trendline (blue) traceable to May 2020 but failed. During the remaining days of last week, bulls resisted the bearish influence and kept the rising trendline intact. However, the ‘wicky’ nature of the candlestick prints indicate a weakness in bullish momentum. Although the technical market structure still favours bulls, a significant bearish breakdown of the rising trendline (blue) on a daily closing basis will signpost the intent of bears to effect a southward drive.
Price action on the H4 time frame is presently disposed northward within the 1.17820/1.19250 horizontal resistance zone (magenta). The last H4-candlestick print on Friday attempted a retest of its upper boundary near 1.19250. Technically, bulls are still favoured and we may see a retest of the 1.20000 area (purple) before a southward turnaround. The area is traceable to May 2018 and is an extension of the operating horizontal resistance zone.
As a swing trader, I will await a potentially feasible bearish setup on a daily closing basis at an area of value.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Trap
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
GBPUSD market operation is southward on the monthly time frame having retested a falling trendline (red) in August and a previous horizontal resistance around 1.34500 (blue). Technically, the 1.25200 area (purple) is the operating horizontal support on the monthly time frame.
An evening star formation can be seen on the GBPUSD weekly time frame. The relatively big bearish continuation candlestick printed last week signposts the intention of bears to advance a southward drive. Presently, market operation is at the 1.27950 intermediate horizontal support area and we may experience some sideways or a brief retracement before a southward continuation.
The order flow context on the daily time frame presently favours bears more than bulls. Apart from the possible corrective northward retracement or sideways we may see in the early part of this week, bears have the potential to drive price action further southward. The 1.26200/1.25200 zone (Sandybrown) is the next horizontal support on the daily time frame.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Trap
USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook
USDJPY market operation is disposed southward. On the weekly time frame, it has rejected the operating 106.271 horizontal resistance area (purple). The indecision candlestick printed two weeks ago was over-ridden by a relatively big bearish continuation candlestick last week, which broke significantly below the low of the bullish candlestick printed three weeks ago. Technically, we may see further bearish move this week.
On the daily time frame, price action is disposed negatively. But it has entered the horizontal support located at the 104.190 area (sandybrown). The candlestick prints of the last two days are bearish but have shadows on both ends. This indicates a struggle between bulls and bears. We should note that the bearish candlestick printed last week Friday had a lower shadow that is a bit longer than the upper shadow, indicating an increase in bullish pressure. We may see further bullish pressure in the early part of this week. However, should bears regain market control and significantly break down the104.190 area (sandybrown) on a daily closing basis, we may see them target the next horizontal support around 103.040 (light green).
On the H4 time frame, price action is on a retracement from the 104.350 area and the 105.290 area (magenta) is a potential horizontal resistance.I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Trap
AUDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
AUDUSD market operation is technically disposed northward. However, on the weekly time frame, it is presently sideways. The candlesticks printed in the last three weeks have been within the 0.72250/0.73700 zone. Last week, an indecision candlestick was printed in the zone. The 0.71420 area is a significant horizontal support.
Technically, the AUDUSD price action is on a northward mode with an outer rising trendline (red) still intact after price action has breached southwards an inner rising trendline (black). The short term technical outlook favours bulls but the momentum is declining; with the recent candlesticks mixed and relatively small. I will await what price action does in the early part of this week.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Trap
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
As the EURUSD market broke above the 1.17830 multi-year horizontal resistance in July, the 1.16480/1.19610 zone became technically the prevailing operating zone. On the weekly time frame, market operation turned sideways seven weeks ago just below the 1.19610 upper boundary of the zone. Last week, market operation printed an indecision candlestick that maintained the market ambivalence, indicating a decline in bullish momentum. We should note that a downward impulsive move began from the second week of April 2018 to the second week of March 2020, and market operation is presently within its 61.8/78.6 Fib retracement zone; this is an area which, technically, is susceptible to a southward turnaround.
On the D1 time frame, price action has broken below a rising trendline (red). However, technically, the market is still in a sideways mode within the 1.17360/1.19325 area (magenta), where topping candlestick prints are dominant. Technically, we may see a southward turnaround from the area.
On the H4 time frame, technicals show a bullish retracement of the bearish impulsive move that began on September 16. Presently, price action is at the 50 Fib retracement level; a significant bearish rejection of the 61.8 Fib level, which is around 1.18360, will potentially lead to a southward continuation. I am more bearish than bullish EURUSD but, being a swing trader, I will await a significant bearish rejection at an area of value on a daily closing basis.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Trap
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
Last week, GBPUSD market operation printed a bullish candlestick with an upper shadow at the 1.29690 area, which aligns with the 38.2 Fib retracement area of the downward move that began three weeks ago from the 1.34815 horizontal resistance area. The presence of an upper shadow on the bullish candlestick printed last week indicates bearish pressure. Should there be a bearish follow-through in the early part of this week, we may see bears target the 1.27230 area.
GBPUSD price action is operating within a rising channel (blue) on the daily time frame. After a retracement of the strong bearish move that began on September 2, 2020, price action is presently at the 1.29690 horizontal resistance area and about 97 pips above the channel support trendline. The area has seen sideways of price action since last week Thursday. Technically, market impulse favours bears and we may see a bearish turnaround. The 1.27230 area is the immediate horizontal support.
A bearish flag formation (magenta) is apparent on the GBPUSD H4 time frame. Technically, this portends a bearish continuation.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Trap
XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
The XAUUSD market has been bullish for quite a while. But on the monthly time frame, a bearish pressure which began in August continued in September. Presently, the 1981.30/1818.30 (magenta) is the prevailing zone of market structure and bears are operating towards the lower part of the zone.
On the weekly time frame, last week, market operation broke down an inner rising trendline (blue) traceable to March but an outer trendline (red) traceable to May 2019 is still intact. The bearish candlestick print of last week was relatively big and broke below a master candlestick formed seven weeks ago; the master candlestick had influenced a sideways of candlestick prints for six weeks. A break below it is indicative of an increased bearish pressure. The 1818.30 area is the immediate horizontal support on the weekly time frame.
On the daily time frame, after the bearish continuation move on Wednesday last week, price action is presently sideways around the 1863.65 minor horizontal support area. Technicals still favour bears and a break below the 1863.65 area may see bears expose the significant 1818.30 horizontal support area.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Trap
AUDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
The AUDUSD market operation is disposed southward on the monthly time frame. The 0.73790/0.68830 zone (magenta) is the prevailing operating zone; the 0.73790 area being the horizontal resistance while the 0.68830 area is the horizontal support. Presently, market operation is about 140 pips above the horizontal support area.
On the weekly time frame, last week, market operation broke below the bullish candlestick printed five weeks ago, which had been operating as a master candlestick for a sideways operation for three weeks. This indicates a strong bearish pressure. Presently, market operation is located at the 0.70260 horizontal support area.
The technical market structure and order flow context on the daily time frame support bears more than bulls. But the 0.72170 previous horizontal support may need to be retested for a bearish rejection set-up on, say, the daily time frame, before we can have confidence in a southward continuation.
On the H4 time frame, price action has broken down a rising channel (blue) and disposed southward. It is presently in a sideways mode at the 0.70260 area. Technically, we may see a pullback to an area of value, such as the 0.71060/0.71560 zone (sandybrown), which aligns with the 38.2/50 Fib zone of the downward swing from the rising channel.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Trap
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
EURUSD market operation on the monthly time frame is disposed southward from the 1.19550 horizontal resistance area (magenta). The interim monthly candlestick print is located about 120 pips of the 1.14950 horizontal support area (light green).
On the weekly time frame, after several weeks of consolidation and formation of a topping pattern, last week, market operation printed a relatively big bearish candlestick that broke down the area of consolidation and dipped below the low of the relatively big bullish candlestick printed nine weeks ago. This, technically, indicates a strong bearish pressure and we may see bears exert further pressure this week.
Price action on the daily time frame has broken below the 1.17220 area (black), which is the lower boundary of the consolidation pattern that began on July 29. This technically signposts bearish intention for a southward continuation. But presently there is limited bearish momentum as price action became sideways after the breakdown of the area. Technicals still favour bears more than bulls but will likely require a northward pullback to an area of value, say the 1.177220 area, and a role flip before we can see a sustainable bearish drive. The 1.14950 area (light green) is, technically, the next horizontal support.
On the H4 time frame, recent price action has done a series of pullbacks, but, presently, price action is sideways. Given the longer-term technical outlook and the order flow context, any northward move is likely to be temporary in nature. I am more bearish than bullish EURUSD, but as a swing trader I will await a pullback to an area of value or what price action does in the early part of this week.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Trap
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
The GBUSD market has been in consolidation for quite a while. The 1.33880/1.22860 zone (magenta) has been the major channel for market operation for a several months. Presently, market operation is disposed southward within the zone, and it is near a horizontal support around 1.26440 (sandybrown). However, looking left, the shadows on the lower part of some of the candlesticks in the area may be a magnet of further bearish move.
After a relatively strong bearish drive rejected the horizontal resistance around 1.33880 three weeks ago, market operation turned sideways. But it printed a bearish continuation candlestick last week and the technical structure suggests further southward move to, perhaps, somewhere around the next consolidation area, the 1.25400 area.
On the daily time frame, price action is disposed southward within a falling channel (blue). Presently it is in consolidation but the technical structure favours bears.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Trap
XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
XAUUSD market is witnessing an increase in bearish pressure. On the monthly time frame, the 1978.10/1815.40 zone (magenta) represents a wide range for market operation. Last month, market operation printed a bearish continuation candlestick in the zone
On the weekly time frame, a bearish impulsive move began eight weeks ago. A brief northward pullback followed, which gave way to sideways operation for three weeks in the 1962.75/1901.35 area (black). The area was broken down with the bearish move of two weeks ago. Last week, bulls effected a northward pullback that led to the printing of a bullish candlestick whose upper shadow pierced the lower boundary of the 1962.75/1901.35 area. Technically, any bearish reaction this week is likely to lead to a southward continuation of the bearish impulsive move that began eight weeks ago. Alternatively, a further bullish move may restore the sideways of market operation.
On the daily time frame, technically, a rising trendline (red) traceable to March is still intact and recent price action is respecting it. However, a falling channel (blue) has emerged from the price action since August. Presently, price action is disposed northward within it and at the channel resistance trendline where an indecision candlestick was printed last week Friday. A significant bullish breakout of the channel on a daily closing basis, with a retest of channel resistance for a role flip, may lead to the restoration of the bullish market structure seen on the monthly time frame. But a significant bearish breakdown of the rising trendline (red) on a daily closing basis, with a retest of the trendline for a role flip, may lead to a southward turnaround.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Trap
USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook
USDJPY market operation on the monthly time frame is within a falling wedge (red). Presently it is in a consolidation at the wedge support trendline where the sideways of market operation has be maintained since August.
On the weekly time frame, a falling channel (blue) can be seen within which recent market operation is taking place and it has jutted out from the lower area of the falling wedge (red) seen on the monthly time frame. This indicates an increase in bearish influence in the market.
On the daily time frame, an ‘M’ pattern appeared to have formed between July 31 and September 18. A retest of its neckline seemed to have taken place with the northward pullback that started on September 19 culminating in a sideways of price action since September 24. Presently, price action is in consolidation at the support trendline of the falling wedge (red) seen on the monthly time frame. This, technically, would result in a southward turnaround.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Trap
