The 1.34100 area (magenta) has been acting as technical horizontal resistance for GBPUSD market operation on the monthly time frame since June 2018. The interim December candlestick print is presently below the area, meaning that it is still the prevailing horizontal resistance and technically favours bears. Presently, market operation is within a rising channel (blue). The 1.28300 area (green) is the prevailing horizontal support on the monthly time frame.
On the GBPUSD weekly time frame, there is a bearish rejection of the 1.34100 horizontal resistance area (magenta). Last week, a bearish rejection candlestick broke below the bullish candlestick printed two weeks ago. However, it printed a long lower tail as it gets near the support trendline of the rising channel (blue) seen on the monthly time frame. It will take a more influential bearish attempt this week to sustain a southward drive.
Price action on the daily time frame is operating within an inner rising channel (purple) in the context of a bigger rising channel (blue), seen on the weekly time frame. Presently, price action is disposed negatively within the inner rising channel. The bearish candlestick printed last week Friday pierced the channel support trendline before retracing a bit northward. Nevertheless, recent technical impulse favours bears and we may see a bearish continuation. A significant breakdown of the channel support trendline may see bears target the horizontal support around the 1.28300 area (green). As a swing trader, I am more bearish GBPUSD than bullish but I will await the daily close on Monday.
Here’s my technical update on the GBPUSD. There is no sustainable directional momentum on the GBPUSD presently; and there has not been since the beginning of the week. Unless you are a scalper, the more feasible GBPUSD trading advice atm is: Step aside.
USDCAD market operation is bearish. On the monthly time frame, the November bearish print broke below the 1.30400 consolidation area and the interim print in December is a bearish continuation. The 1.24900 area (green) is the next horizontal support on the monthly time frame.
Market operation on the weekly time frame is still bearish. However, the bearish momentum is waning as the indecision print of two weeks ago was followed with another indecision print last week. Presently, market operation is at the 1.27800 area, which has held as horizontal support since May 2018.
Price action on the daily time frame is on a bullish pullback in the context of a technically bearish market structure. The 1.28220/1.30000 area (magenta) is the immediate horizontal resistance. Should there be a bearish rejection of the area in the early part of this week, we may see a southward continuation.
The AUDUSD market is still bullish. On the monthly time frame, market operation is heading towards the next horizontal resistance, which is around the 0.77500 area (magenta). The interim December candlestick print has moved more than 200 pips above the high of the November bullish print.
Market operation on the weekly time frame is bullish. The last five weeks have seen the printing of bullish candlesticks after the indecision candlestick printed six weeks ago. The next significant horizontal resistance is around the 0.77500 area (magenta).
AUDUSD price action on the daily time frame is respecting an inner rising trendline (blue) from recent lows. An outer rising trendline (red) may be consequential should the inner trendline (blue) be broken down.
Recent price action on the H4 time frame is within a rising wedge (magenta) above the inner rising trendline (blue) seen on the daily time frame. A breakdown of the wedge does not necessarily mean that the bullish structure is violated. It will take a significant bearish breakdown of the outer rising trendline (red), seen on the daily time frame, for the bullish market structure to be threatened.
The EURUSD market is bullish. Market operation on the monthly time frame has moved further north of the bullish print of November and the former horizontal resistance around the 1.19500 area. The interim print in December has entered the immediate horizontal resistance in the 1.22100/1.23500 zone (magenta), an area that was last visited in April 2018.
The bullish market operation that was paused two weeks ago on the weekly time frame resumed last week with a relatively big bullish print. Bulls may be incentivized for further northward push by the liquidity around the 1.23500 area – indicated by the ‘wicky’ prints in the area between January and April 2018.
Price action on the daily time frame is bullish. It is respecting an inner rising trendline (blue), while an outer rising trendline (red) is still in play and may be consequential as a support soon. Presently, price action is located within the 1.22100/1.23500 horizontal resistance zone (magenta). The 1.20500 area (sandybrown) is the next significant horizontal support while the 1.19000 area (green) will have a longer-term relevance as support.
The GBPUSD market is in a bullish mode. On the monthly time frame, the August/November sideway market operation has given way to a bullish mode in December. The December interim print has moved about 170 pips from the 1.33700 horizontal barrier that was constraining the August/November market operation. However, the fact that GBPUSD has not made much bullish drive since the beginning of the month indicates that bulls are not fully in control of market operation.
Market operation on the weekly time frame is still within the 1.34600/1.36100 horizontal resistance zone (magenta), which has held as resistance since May 2018. Presently, market operation is northward within a rising channel (blue) and a bullish breach of the 1.34600/1.36100 zone (magenta) may attempt a northward drive to the channel resistance trendline. 1.37700 area (purple) is the immediate horizontal resistance.
Price action on the daily time frame is presently sideways. The candlesticks printed last week Wednesday and Thursday showed a reduction in bullish momentum, while the bearish print on Friday was constrained by bullish pressure. It should be noted that price action is within the 1.34600/1.36100 horizontal resistance zone (magenta), which has held as resistance since May 2018. We should await what price action does in the area in the early part of this week.
The EURUSD market is bullish on the monthly time frame, the interim December candlestick print having broken above, and moved several pips from, the 1.19800 previous horizontal resistance area (green), now turned support, which held for several months. The December market operation surged to the 1.22760 technical reaction area (red), an area that was last visited in April 2018. Presently, it is at the 1.21810 area – indicating a decline in bullish momentum.
Market operation on the weekly time frame is still in a technically bullish market structure even though there is an increase in bearish pressure as it tackles the 1.22760 technical reaction area (red), an area that was last visited in April 2018. The area printed bearish rejection ‘wicks’ in the past and may still attract liquidity interest of bulls. Market operation is respecting an inner rising trendline (blue) while an outer rising trendline (red) may be consequential as support in future should the inner rising trendline (blue) be significantly breached by bears. Given the bearish tinge of last week’s candlestick print – which is not really convincing with its long-tailed wick, technically, we may see some bullish move or sideways of market operation in the early part of this week. This may be followed by a bearish pullback, perhaps to retest the inner rising trendline (blue) or the 1.19800 horizontal support area (green).
Price action on the daily time frame is experiencing increased bearish pressure as it tackles the 1.22760 technical reaction area (red). But until the minor rising trendline (magenta) from recent lows is significantly broken down by bears on a daily closing basis, I will respect the positive tone. The immediate significant horizontal support is at the 1.19800 area (green).
The GBPUSD market has maintained a bullish tone for a while. On the monthly time frame, market operation has moved northward of the 1.34200 horizontal resistance area (green) that has held for several months. The December interim print surged to the 1.36300 extended technical reaction handle (red) before experiencing bearish pressure. A ‘W’ technical pattern can be traced beginning with the May 2018 monthly bearish print and with the December print as part of the upward completion leg. Technically, although we may still see some bullish move, a southward turnaround or retracement is in the offing.
The last two weeks have seen bullish candlestick prints that form a double top. However, the bullish print of last week has a deeper low and longer lower tail, indicating a stronger bullish sentiment. Technically, we may see bulls make further northward move in the early part of this week, but market operation is at a horizontal resistance area.
On the daily time frame, recent price action and order flow context in the last 10 days favour bulls. However, we should be aware that price action is now at a horizontal resistance area, the 1.36300 extended technical reaction handle (red). The area is susceptible to a bearish rejection or retracement.
The 1770.40/1891.40 zone (purple) is the prevailing market operation zone on the monthly time frame. The interim December print surged to the 1891.40 horizontal resistance before retracing to the 1878.75 area.
On the weekly time frame, an indecision candlestick was printed last week at the 1891.40 area after a relatively big bullish candlestick was printed two weeks ago. As market operation is at the horizontal resistance area, the indecision candlestick print last week signposts a pause in bullish momentum. The 1834.70 area (green) is the prevailing horizontal support on the weekly time frame. We should also notice that market operation on the weekly time frame is still respecting a rising trendline (red).
Price action on the daily time frame is disposed positively and grinding slowly along a rising channel (blue). The last five days has seen price action consolidating as it gets near the 1891.40 horizontal resistance. A significant bearish breakdown of the channel may incentivize bears for a southward rotation while a significant bullish breach of the 1891.40 horizontal resistance may lead to further northward push towards the channel resistance trendline.
On the H4 time frame, a relatively big bearish print on December 21 is acting as a control candlestick for the subsequent prints. Presently, after a bullish rejection of the support trendline of the rising channel (blue) seen on the daily time frame, price action is consolidating around the mid-area of the ‘control candlestick’ and with a bullish tinge. Technically, we may see a bullish push to retest the high of the ‘control candlestick’ around 1902.20 (magenta), which is an extension of the 1891.40 horizontal resistance area, before any southward turnaround.
The USDCAD market is toned negatively. On the monthly time frame, in December, market operation broke down the 1.30000 area (red), which had served as horizontal support for several months, turning it to a significant horizontal resistance. Market operation is now on a southward drive and presently at the 1.27500 area (sandybrown), the immediate horizontal support area. Any further southward drive of market operation may expose the significant horizontal support around 1.24900 (green).
On the weekly time frame, USDCAD market operation is disposed southward in a falling channel (blue). Two weeks ago, a bearish pin bar was printed within the channel and there was a bearish follow-through last week. Technically, we should expect a bearish continuation, but market operation is now at a significant horizontal support on the weekly time frame. The area, around 1.27500 (sandybrown), has held as support since May 2018 and was last visited with a bullish rejection in September 2018. We may see a technical reaction in the form of some sideways of price action in the area in the early part of this week. Of course, a bullish retracement is not off the table. Should bears succeed in breaking down the area, we may see a southward drive towards the 1.24900 area (green), which is the next significant horizontal support.
Price action on the daily time frame is presently within a minor falling wedge (magenta) and located around the multi-month 1.27500 horizontal support area (sandybrown). For much of the past seven trading days, price action has been around the minor wedge resistance trendline and was sideways in the early part of last week. There was a bearish breakout on Wednesday, but the indecision print of Thursday that nestled at the 1.27500 horizontal support area (sandybrown) indicated a decline in bearish momentum. Technically, a bearish resurgence is likely to target the minor wedge support trendline. But this will not happen until a significant bearish breakdown of the 1.27500 horizontal support area (sandybrown) on a daily closing basis.
The AUDUSD market is positively toned. On the monthly time frame, market operation is bullish, with the December 2020 print having broken out of the previous horizontal resistance around 0.73600/ 0.74000. It is now located at the 0.76500/0.77400 multi-year horizontal resistance area (red), last visited on June 2018. The 0.73600 area (green) is the prevailing horizontal support on the monthly time frame.
Market operation on the weekly time frame is still bullish. An overextended ‘W’ pattern is on an up leg mode and presently operating at the 0.76500/0.77400 multi-year horizontal resistance area (red). A further bullish move may be seen in the early part of this week to tease the 0.78100 horizontal extension of the resistance. Failure of further bullish mode at the 0.76500/0.78100 extended resistance zone may incentivize bears for a southward mode. The zone is congruent with the 78.6 Fib of the multi-year downward swing from the last week of January 2018 around 0.81000.
The daily time frame shows a bullish AUDUSD market. Although price action is respecting a rising trendline (blue), it is experiencing a decline in bullish potency. The candlestick prints in the last 10 days have been mixed. Last week Thursday, an indecision candlestick was printed at the 0.76500/0.77400 multi-year horizontal resistance area (red) after a relatively big bullish print on Wednesday. A significantly bearish breakdown of the rising trendline on a daily closing basis may incentive bears for a southward drive. The immediate horizontal support is at the 0.75700 area (Sandybrown) and could serve as a target of bears soon. As a swing trader, I will await how price action handles the 0.76500/0.77400 multi-year horizontal resistance area (red) and the rising trendline (blue) in the early part of this week.
The EURUSD market continued its positive mode. On the monthly time frame, the December candlestick print broke out of the 1.19500 technical area (green), which had served as horizontal resistance for several months. Market operation surged towards the next horizontal resistance area, the 1.23400 area (red), which was last visited in April 2018. But there is bearish pressure as the December candlestick closed with an upper shadow.
Market operation on the weekly time frame is still bullish. However, there has been a sideways of operation in the last three weeks as it tackles the 1.23400 area (red), a horizontal resistance last visited in April 2018. We may see a bullish surge for liquidity at the upper extension of the 1.23400 area, as ‘wicky’ tops were printed there in the past. This may then give way to further bearish pressure.
Price action on the daily time frame is operating in a rising channel (blue). The 1.23400 area (red) is the immediate horizontal resistance. Although the technical structure still favours bulls, bears are effecting some pressure in the market. Last week Thursday, a relatively big bearish (engulfing) candlestick took price action towards the channel support trendline. A bearish breakdown of the channel support trendline may see bears target the 1.20700/1.20130 horizontal support area (sandybrown).
On the H4 time frame, intra-day traders may be interested in the southward tone of price action within the rising channel (blue). However, its bearish breakdown may not play out until price action dismantles the 1.21800/1.21500 horizontal support area (purple). The area should also be of interest to swing traders too. Personally, as a swing trader, I will stay out of the market till Tuesday. I need to see what the daily close of Monday printed in the area or at the channel support trendline.
GBPUSD market operation remains technically bullish as the December candlestick print broke out of the previous horizontal resistance, now turned support, around 1.33900 (green). The bullish print has surged towards the next horizontal resistance around 1.37700 (red).
On the weekly time frame, GBPUSD market operation is on a bullish run in a rising wedge (blue). We may see further bullish drive to the multi-year horizontal resistance around 1.37700 (red); which, for pattern traders, is congruent with the neckline of an ‘M’ pattern formed between December 2017 and May 2018. Should bulls succeed in such an attempt, a bearish turnaround may follow. Besides, technical operation within the wedge indicates the potential for a bearish pullback towards the wedge support trendline.
On the daily tie frame, there has been a choppy market operation for quite a while as it grinds northwards within a rising wedge (blue). Besides, price action is near the 1.37700 horizontal resistance area (red) and is tackling the wedge resistance trendline. Technically, a bearish turnaround may be in the offing.
Technically we can expect the XAUUSD to continue a bearish mode in the early part of next week but price action is near a minor horizontal support around the 1831.10 area. I will give details on the XAUUSD and three other pairs in my weekly technical outlook before the market opens.
The XAUUSD market is operationally sideways. On the monthly time frame, the technical market structure is bullish, with two rising trendlines, an outer one (red) and an inner one (blue), still in play. However, there is an increase in bearish pressure. In November 2020, a relatively significant bearish candlestick with a long upper wick was printed. However, it was countered by a significant bullish print in December, but fell shy of filling the upper wick of the November bearish print. The December print effectively confirmed the 1773.73 area (green) as the operating horizontal support on the monthly time frame. The interim print in January 2021 started from near the high of the November bearish print and technically an indication of the bearish continuation of the downward swing that started in August 2020. As this move has not breached the low of the bullish print of July 2020, the candlestick is technically still operating as a ‘control’ or ‘master’ candlestick. Technically, until this low, around 1773.730, is significantly breached by bears, we may not see a sustainable southward momentum. Nevertheless, presently, there is significant room for bears to operate.
The weekly time frame shows an increase in bearish pressure in the XAUUSD market , which presently is in a consolidation phase within a horizontal channel bound by the 1851.10/1831.10 zone (magenta).
Price action on the daily time frame is sideways but the technical prints in the last three days have been significantly bearish. Presently, price action is near the 1831.10 lower boundary of the horizontal channel (magenta) where the market has been operating for weeks. It will require a significant breakdown of the area for further bearish drive. Technically, we may see some bearish move in the early part of this week, at least to retest the 1831.10 lower boundary of the horizontal channel. This may be followed by some sideways of price action before any directional momentum. The 1796.50 area (sandybrown) is the next horizontal support.
The USDCAD market is technically bearish. On the monthly time frame, the December 2020 candlestick bearish print broke down an area of consolidation that held for several months. Should there be a bearish continuation this week, we may see the 1.25000 horizontal support area (sandybrown) exposed. The 1.22800 area (green) is a significant horizontal support on the monthly time frame.
Technicals and order flow context on the USDCAD weekly time frame favour bears. Market operation has broken down the 1.29100 area, which has held as support for several weeks, and apparently heading for the next horizontal support around 1.25000 (sandybrown).
On the daily time frame, price action is operating within a falling channel (blue). Presently, it is in a bullish mode. But in a technically bearish market, such a move is likely to be temporary in nature and would soon give way to a southward rotation.
The EURUSD market is presently ambivalent. Although the technical structure is bullish, the momentum is waning, with an increase in bearish pressure. On the monthly time frame, the December 2020 candlestick print was bullish, having broken above the 1.19500 area (green), which held as horizontal resistance for several months, effectively flipping it as support. Market operation has since surged to the 1.23000/1.240100 zone (magenta), which is now the operating horizontal resistance on the monthly time frame. The interim candlestick print in January 2021 is under bearish pressure.
On the weekly time frame, EURUSD market operation is within a rising wedge (blue). But it is around the wedge resistance trendline and experiencing some bearish pressure. Besides, the market operation is presently sideways, having entered the 1.23000/1.240100 horizontal resistance area (magenta), which printed ‘wicky’ candlesticks several months ago and had not been visited since April 2018. The area is technically a significant horizontal resistance and replete with liquidity. The 1.25100 area (red) is a technical reaction handle for a bearish turnaround, should there be a bullish surge to it. Technically, we may see a southward turnaround should there be further bearish pressure in the 1.23000/1.240100 area (magenta). The 1.20300 area (sandybrown) is the immediate significant horizontal support on the weekly time frame.
Price action on the daily time frame is within a rising wedge (blue). There is an increase in bearish pressure as price action became sideways around the wedge resistance trendline. The technical pattern in the rising wedge points to the likelihood of a bearish rotation to, at least, the wedge support trendline. Besides, price action had entered a significant horizontal resistance area, the 1.23000/1.240100 horizontal resistance area (magenta), which was last visited in April 2018. This area is susceptible to a bearish turnaround. I am bearish EURUSD. However, I will await what price action does in the early part of this week before looking for a sell trading opportunity. While the 1.20300 area (sandybrown) is the immediate horizontal support and may be a profit target of bears, the 1.19500 area (green) is a longer-term horizontal support and may be of interest as a profit target for swing traders.
The GBPUSD market, which has been bullish for quite a while, is presently experiencing an increase in bearish pressure. Market operation on the monthly time frame entered the horizontal support around the 1.350500/1.37600 zone (magenta) after the bullish candlestick surge in December 2020, but the interim January 2021 candlestick is under bearish influence.
The market operation on the weekly time frame is sideways. The bullish candlestick of two weeks ago gave way to a bearish print last week. Both candlesticks have shadows on both ends, a technical indication of a market in equilibrium. This posits that the market is processing the implications of the 1.350500/1.37600 zone (magenta), where market operation is presently taking place. The area has never been breached northwards since May 2018. However, the rising trendline (blue) is potentially a bearish target for any southward turnaround.
Price action on the daily time frame is within a rising wedge (blue). Presently it is in a sideways mode as it tackles a confluence zone – the wedge resistance trendline and the 1.36500/1.37000 horizontal resistance area (red). Technically, such a situation makes price action amenable to a bearish rotation.
On the H4 time frame, price action is presently sideways but it is under a bearish impulsive move traceable to the bearish drop on January 4, 2021 from the 1.37000 area. We may see a bearish continuation soon. I am more bearish GBPUSD than bullish.
We may see a bullish retracement to an area of value on the USDCAD market in the early part of this week. But, technically, bears are still favoured for a southward turnaround. I will give details of my analysis on the USDCAD and four other pairs before the market opens next week.
