I am just about concluding my weekly scanning and analysis of the 12 pairs on my watch list. After the first two steps of the scanning/analysis process only five of the pairs meet the criteria for further analysis. EURUSD is not one of the pairs I may trade during the week. Why? The pair is predominantly in a sideways mode - may be a scalper’s delight but not good for my swing trading strategy. [B]I may be wrong.[/B] Trade safe.
The 89 and 200 SMAs on the daily time frame of EURUSD are not in series price action-wise; an indication of a ranging market in play. There is potential for sideways trading at least in the early part of the week. This may be a scalper’s delight but not good for short-term swing traders, of which I am one. [B]I may be wrong.[/B] Trade safe.
I have just completed the weekly scan and analysis of the 12 pairs on my watch list. Only three pairs meet the conditions for the trades I wil seek to enter during the week. These are: GBPCAD (first priority), GBPJPY (second priority) and GBPUSD (tentative, needs mid-week update). Here is why I am making GBPCAD my first priority trade for the week, representing my perspective on the pair.
[B]GBPCAD:[/B]
The technicals I use are well in sync on the higher time frames for a downward mode.
On the 4H time frame, which I use for trade setups, although the pair has been in sideways mode since July 14, a bearish continuation mode resumed on August 2 which has remained strong. The price is well displaced from the 20 EMA and the thrust of 9 and 20 EMAs is well directed to the downside. Although the 89 SMA is still above the 200 SMA; when the 89 SMA moves below the 200 SMA the impetus for a downward move is likely to be greater. Furthermore, the 4-H RSI and its 9 MA are synced for a bearish mode.
[B]I may be wrong. [/B]Trade safe
Why did I choose to step aside for now regarding GBPUSD? The primary mode on the higher time frames is towards the downside, all the technicals I use for my analysis are in agreement on this. However, the intraday technicals are at variance, indicating a northward mood, may be a strong pull back to the upside. Therefore, as a swing trader I need to wait for agreement of the intraday with the higher time frames, otherwise I will be taking a big risk and will not be following my trading rules. [B]I may be wrong.[/B] Trade safe.
Although the GBPUSD is making an upward push at the moment, the technical situation is mixed. The current mood favours the northward tone but the momentum is weak. Trade safe.
I am now tracking the GBPJPY as it is testing the daily pivot. Any bounce off the daily pivot or a (bearish) rejection candle around it is potentially a cue to go southwards. [B]I may be wrong.[/B] Trade safe.
EURUSD is presenting an interesting scenario at the moment. If you say it’s bullish you’ll be right, if you say it’s bearish you’ll equally be right!!! The point is how far down/up and for how long? The primary outlook on the HTFs (e.g weekly and daily) is uncertain - somewhat on a sideways mood. The 89 SMA and 200 SMA on both are not in series; price is between both of them. For me, as a swing trader I will step aside and wait for further price action. [B]I may be wrong.[/B] Trade safe.
We are predominantly in a ranging market on EURUSD, although there’s quite a load of movement on either side - an upward channel was created on the daily chart over 20 days ago and a range on the weekly time frame has developed for quite a while; this condition will surely delight scalpers. Trade safe.
Based on my mid-week update, in the short-to-medium term, the GBPUSD has a northward disposition; however the momentum is weakening. It may take good GBP fundamentals (or related ones) during the week to energize the momentum. Otherwise, there is potential for a southward turnaround, particularly if price rejects the monthly pivot to the downside. I prefer to look for an opportunity to trade the pair southwards. [B]I may be wrong.[/B] Trade safe.
A break above yesterday’s high (the high of the doji created yesterday), which is also above the daily pivot, is likely going to offer greater possibility for a northward move on GBPUSD with a target at the next significant resistance level just below the monthly pivot. [B]I may be wrong.[/B] Trade safe.
If you are a swing or positiion trader, this video will help you learn to effectively manage your watch list - I don’t have any business relationship with the presenter. Trade safe
GBPUSD opened below yesterday’s daily high and is now trading below the monthly pivot. Any bearish move that breaks the daily pivot will be cue for me to trade southwards. [B]I may be wrong.[/B] Trade safe.
The AUDUSD is facing a push to the downside perhaps linked to the uncertainties surrounding China’s budget deficit. A drop below the monthly pivot which would see price under the 4H 200 EMA is likely to add further impetus for a southward mode. [B]I may be wrong.[/B] Trade safe.
Don’t be fooled by the pullback, much likely GBPUSD is still sailing southwards. Trade safe.
Thanks mate. Let’s wait for it. Trade safe.
The EURUSD price does not appear to be feasible for swing trading at the moment. It is largely in a sideways mode, may be a scalper’s delight. [B]I may be wrong.[/B] Trade safe.
During the weekly scan and analysis of the pairs on my watch list, which I completed on Sunday afternoon, I chose three pairs for possible trading this week. The pairs are: GBPJPY, GBPCAD and GBPNZD. A fourth one, EURJPY, will require a mid-week update before I make a decision on it. My first priority pair for the week is GBPJPY and here is my perspective on it.
[B][U]GBPJPY:[/U][/B] ‘A’-rated pair overall; this is first priority trade for the week. On the 4-Hrly time frame which is my setup time frame - price has completed three price waves to the downside and is now in a consolidation mode around the trendline. Price is ranging around my EMA combo which are rather flat and the RSI is not well directed to the upside. However, bulls and bears are equally influential as the candles being formed are neutralizing one another size and number wise. The RSI is a bit upward pointed but lacks momentum. Apparently the southward mode is still in play, more so as the trendline has not been breached to the upside. Wait for an opportunity to trade this pair to the downside.
[B]I may be wrong.[/B] Trade safe.
[B][U]Just my 10 cents:[/U][/B]
I wonder why some traders would want to chase the market rather than trap it. A major discovery of my trading career thus far is that you achieve more by doing less, you are more successful by waiting for the market than by rushing into and through the market. Trapping the market is hard, because you do a lot of planning work when there is no market to trade (e.g. on Sundays) and you do a lot of patient (frustrating) waiting for your levels/zones/conditions to be breached/met. But the actual time for the real trading is a few hours during the week - leaving you ample time to enjoy your life. Let’s learn to trap the market. Trade safe.