The GBPUSD market is technically bullish. However, it is experiencing increased bearish pressure. On the monthly time frame, the 1.42330/1.37260 zone (purple) has been a strong channel for market operation for quite a while; and a breakout from the zone – northward or southward – is likely to be of significant directional impact in the market. In May, a bullish market operation broke out from a minor area of consolidation that was in place at the lower part of the bigger 1.42330/1.37260 zone between February and April. The May candlestick took market operation towards the upper part of the bigger zone but the interim bearish candlestick in June has pushed market operation back towards the lower part of the zone, thus maintaining the bearish pressure.
On the weekly time frame, the technical structure is still bullish despite the increased bearish pressure. Two weeks ago, a relatively big bearish candlestick took market operation southward from a minor area of consolidation below the 1.42330 horizontal resistance, but, last week, there was a bullish pushback of market operation. However, the bullish candlestick printed last week had an upper shadow and was relatively too small compared to the relatively bigger bearish print of two weeks ago. This situation indicates increased bearish pressure although we cannot rule out any northward market engineering for liquidity as the topping ‘wicks’ in the last six weeks may attract bullish interest.
The order flow context on the daily time frame and recent price action favour bears. On June 23, price action completed a 61.8 Fib northward retracement of the 1.41320/1.37900 downward swing. Should this lead to a bearish continuation, we may see price action attempt a breakdown of the 1.37260 immediate horizontal support, which may extend to the next horizontal support around the 1.36660 area (green). Such a move, however, should not be seen as a technical market reversal.
As a medium term swing trader, how price action handles the 1.24680/1.26240 zone (red), a nested supply area on both weekly and daily time frames, at the close of business will today will be of interest to me. A significant bearish print at least on a daily closing basis in the area will pique my interest to look for feasible southward trading opportunity next week, with a technical target around the 1.21720/1.21260 (light green) demand area on a swing trading basis.
I may be wrong. Please trade based on your own rules and analysis.
The USDJPY market is technically bullish. However, the bullish momentum has declined. On the monthly time frame the 109.070 area (green) is the prevailing horizontal support but there has been minimal northward move in the last three months. The 111.80 area (red) has held as horizontal resistance for several months. Although the interim July market operation surged to the area before pulling back, the technical impulse favours further northward move.
Technicals and order flow context on the weekly time frame favour bulls. A rising trendline (purple) traceable to January is still active as support. Technically, we can expect further northward move that may target a value area beyond the 111.80 horizontal resistance area (red) seen on the monthly time frame.
Although USDJPY technical structure is bullish on the daily time frame, there is bearish pressure as price action approaches the 111.80 horizontal resistance area (red) seen on the monthly time frame. This is apparently a temporary corrective mode before bulls garner more potency to attack the 111.80 horizontal resistance area (red). Furthermore, price action is presently below the resistance trendline of a rising wedge (purple), where it made a bearish print on Friday. We may see further bearish move in the early part of this week, perhaps, to retest the wedge support trendline or for a southward liquidity grab before a northward turnaround. At any rate, a successful bullish breakout from the wedge or the 111.80 horizontal resistance area (red) would see bulls target a value area further northward.
The USDCAD market is still bearish despite the recent bullish pullback. On the weekly time frame, three weeks ago, market operation pulled back to the 1.24630/1.26235 supply/horizontal resistance zone (red) with a relatively big bullish candlestick but there was no bullish follow-through. Two weeks ago, a relatively smaller bearish candlestick printed from the zone only went about mid-way of the previous bullish candlestick, indicating that bears are not fully in control of market operation. Last week, bulls made a northward surge to the 1.24630/1.26235 supply/horizontal resistance zone (red) but bears mitigated the move, resulting in the printing of a long-upper shadow doji-like candlestick or bearish pinbar. Technically, the bullish candlestick of three weeks ago is acting as a ‘master’ candlestick and the bullish tinge on last week’s pinbar indicates that bulls are still influential in the market. In the circumstance, we may see another bullish pullback or a sideways of market operation before a southward continuation.
Price action is bearish on the daily time frame. On June 18, it completed a 61.8/78.6 Fib zonal retracement of the recent downward swing that created the 1.24630/1.26235 supply/horizontal resistance zone (red) seen on the weekly time frame. Presently, it is in a bearish mode after another bullish pullback to retest the 1.24630/1.26235 supply/horizontal resistance zone (red). Although technicals still favour bears more than bulls, the 1.22850/1.22560 area (green) is a mini horizontal support that price action must break down before we can see a bearish directional momentum.
Technicals and order flow on the H4 time frame favour bears more than bulls. A relatively strong bearish price action has rejected the 1.24630 lower boundary (red) of the horizontal resistance zone seen on the weekly time frame. Price action is a few pips above the 1.22850/1.22560 horizontal support area (green) seen on the daily time frame and we may see a bullish reaction or sideways of price action in the area before a southward continuation. Further bearish drive may target the demand/horizontal support around 1.21900/1.21540 (purple).
Although the GBPUSD market is still technically bullish, it is under increased bearish pressure. On the weekly time frame, three weeks ago, a relatively big bearish candlestick broke down a rising trendline (red) that was active for several weeks, and it is attempting a breakdown of a demand zone around the 1.38780/1.37850 area (green). This attempt has come in the form of a sideways market operation in the area in the last two weeks. Further bearish pressure is likely to see a bearish breakdown of the area, but a bearish misstep may see a retest of the broken down rising trendline (red).
Price action on the daily time frame is technically bearish but presently it is in a sideways mode at the 1.38780/1.37850 horizontal support area (green) having broken below a rising trendline (red) that had been active for several days. Price action printed a bearish candlestick on Thursday, but it printed a mitigating bullish candlestick on Friday which failed to close above the bearish candlestick printed on Thursday. Basically, the technical impulse favours bears but price action is seeing a bullish correction. I am bearish this market but as a swing trader, I will like to see first a bullish correction to an area of value, such as the 61.8 Fib retracement zone of the recent downward swing – an area which is in confluence with the 1.40200 round number (magenta).
On the H4 time frame, although the technical impulse is bearish, presently price action is in a bullish corrective mode. We may see further northward move for liquidity grab at an area of value before a southward turnaround.
Although the EURUSD market is still in a bullish technical structure, the market is under an increased bearish pressure. On the weekly time frame, market operation has moved southward of a supply zone, the 1.23930/1.22390 area (red), after testing and retesting the zone a couple of times since December 2020. Market operation is presently within a demand/horizontal support zone, the 1.19180/1.17380 area (green), after completing 78.6 Fib retracement of the 1.23490/1.17030 downward swing in late May. Presently, there is a sideways of market operation in the zone, but the overall technical impulse favours further bearish move and this may see a breakdown of the 1.19180/1.17380 area (green). Such bearish directional move would result in the completion of a multi-week ‘M’ pattern that began in the first week of November 2020.
Despite the recent corrective bullish pullback, price action and order flow context on the daily time frame favour bears. Meanwhile, price action is tackling a strong demand/horizontal support area at the 1.19180/1.17380 zone (green). Technically, we cannot rule out further bullish correction or sideways of price action in the early part of this week, but bears are more favoured than bulls. Further bearish directional momentum may expose the 1.16000 handle (purple).
Price action on the H4 timeframe is bearish, having created a mini supply/horizontal resistance area around 1.19640/1.19360 (blue). Presently, it is in a pullback mode, perhaps to retest the area. But a bullish exhaustion at an area of value would give way to a bearish turnaround. I do not trade on Monday and as a swing trader I will await what price action does in the early part of this week.
The XAUUSD market is sideways. On the monthly time frame, the bullish candlestick printed in May was mitigated by a bearish print in June. The 1745.80/1918.90 zone (purple) is the prevailing trading range on the monthly time frame, and the interim market operation in July is very much at the lower part of the range.
The XAUUSD market operation on the weekly time frame is under intense bearish pressure. A relatively big bearish candlestick printed four weeks ago is presently acting as a ‘master’ candlestick to the three relatively small bullish candlesticks printed in the last three weeks. In fact, the bullish candlestick printed last week failed to go beyond the mid-point of the ‘master’ candlestick, i.e., the relatively big bearish candlestick printed four weeks ago. By looking left, we can see that market operation had broken down an internal structure around 1766.20 (green) and then retraced northward. It was after a 78.6 Fib retracement that market operation made a southward swing that produced the bearish ‘master’ candlestick. Presently, we are seeing another retracement, which will likely give way to a southward continuation.
The technical impulse and order flow context on the daily time frame favour bears, but, presently, price action is in a sideways mode after a bullish retracement. Any further bullish move may be a retracement to an area of value before a bearish turnaround. Such an area of value is the 1827.50 area (blue).
The USDCAD market is generally bearish, but it is in a sideways operating mode. On the monthly time frame, the bearish candlestick printed in May entered a multi-year horizontal support at the 1.20750/1.19330 zone (green). However, there was no bearish follow-up in June as bulls rejected the zone for a northward retracement. The interim market operation in July is sideways but with a bullish tinge.
Market operation on the weekly time frame is in a sideways mode. Five weeks ago, it made a bullish breakout from a four-week consolidation at the 1.20750 area (green), the upper boundary of a multi-year horizontal support zone seen on the monthly time frame. Last week, it made a bullish breakout from an area of consolidation that had been in place for two weeks and entered a supply/resistance at the 1.24780/1.26130 zone (red) before snapping back below it. Any further bullish move will likely see a challenge at the 1.27480 horizontal barrier (purple). Technically, as the market structure still favours bears, any bullish move is likely to be corrective in nature and would give way to a southward turnaround.
On the daily time frame, the technical structure is still bearish despite recent strong bullish retracement and a northward surge to breach it. Four of the past five days were bullish, but there was a relatively strong bearish pushback on Friday as price action tackled the horizontal resistance at the 1.24780/1.26130 zone (red). This may incentivize bears to push for a southward continuation at least to the 1.23260/1.22690 horizontal support area (green). Nevertheless, given the ‘wicky’ tops above the 1.24780/1.26130 zone (red), any bearish misstep may incentivize bulls for a northward market engineering to grab liquidity.
The GBPUSD is in a sideways operating mode. On the monthly time frame, market operation has been consolidating for six months in the 1.42040/1.36910 zone (purple). The interim July market operation is around the lower part of the zone and has a bullish tinge.
On the weekly time frame, GBPUSD market operation went into a sideways mode three weeks ago after a strong bearish impulsive drop from the 1.42040 horizontal resistance area. Although last week’s candlestick was bullish, there was no northward breakout from the consolidation area. Technically, market operation is more bearish than bullish. The 1.36910 area is the immediate horizontal support.
Technical impulse and order flow on the daily time frame favour bears more than bulls. However, presently, price action is in a bullish mode – somewhat a northward corrective mode or pullback. We will likely see a southward turnaround after a northward pullback to an area of value. Such an area of value is the technical barrier at the 1.39460/1.40060 area (magenta).
The EURUSD is sideways, but the operating mode is impulsively more bearish than bullish. On the monthly time frame, a bullish candlestick printed in May took market operation to the horizontal resistance around 1.22720 (purple) but a relatively bigger bearish candlestick was printed in June that mitigated the move and broke far below the low of the May bullish print. Technically, this shows that EURUSD market operation is impulsively more bearish than bullish. The interim market operation in July is ambivalent and presently located around the low of the June bearish candlestick.
The EURUSD market operation on the weekly time frame is impulsively bearish, but, presently, in a sideways mode. A bearish follow-through will likely see market operation initially target the 1.16940/1.16070 horizontal support zone (green).
Price action on the daily time frame is in a bullish retracement under a bearish market environment. Thus, we will likely see a bearish turnaround after a bullish pullback to an area of value, such as the 1.19530/1.19840 technical barrier area (magenta). So, what the market does in the early part of this week is significant for directional momentum. I am more bearish the EURUSD than bullish, but I will wait for a bullish pullback to an area of value before looking for a southward trading opportunity.
The XAUUSD market is under a bearish pressure. On the monthly time frame, the bearish print of June is an outside bar to the bullish print of May. Meanwhile, the interim market operation in July is at the lower part of June’s bearish print. Nevertheless, market operation is consolidating at a supply or resistance zone on the monthly time frame.
On the weekly time frame, market operation rejected the 1871.30/1898.10 supply/horizontal resistance zone (red) after retesting it eight weeks ago. The candlestick printed five weeks ago offered a strong bearish continuation and put the XAUUSD market under a strong bearish pressure. Although, presently, market operation is in a bullish mode, the candlesticks printed in the last four weeks are relatively small. This indicates that bears are more influential in the market than bulls.
On the daily time frame, on Thursday, price action completed a 50/61.8 Fib retracement of the 1902.90/1750.50 downward swing. Presently, it is in a bearish mode because of the bearish candlestick printed on Friday. Technically, we can expect further bearish move.
Technically, the USDCAD market is under a bearish pressure. On the monthly time frame, market operation is far below the 1.30300/1.33485 zone (red), which is the prevailing supply/horizontal resistance zone. Meanwhile, there is a corrective bullish operating mode as, in June, a bullish engulfing candlestick pulled away from the 1.20310 multi-year horizontal support zone (green), and the interim market operation has moved 150 pips above the June high.
Market operation on the weekly timeframe is still bearish despite being presently in a bullish corrective mode. Technically, we can expect a bearish turnaround after a northward pullback to an area of value.
Price action on the daily time frame is bullish and it is tackling the 1.26010/1.27370 horizontal resistance zone (magenta). The bullish mode is technically a corrective phase in a technically bearish market. We can expect a bearish turnaround after an exhaustion of the bullish pullback.
The GBPUSD market is in a sideways mode. On the monthly time frame, market operation is presently within the 1.37100/1.42610 zone (red). The bullish candlestick printed in May was mitigated by a bearish candlestick of equivalent size in June. Meanwhile, the interim July market operation is at the lower part of the zone and has a bearish tinge.
Market operation on the weekly time frame is under increased bearish pressure. However, after the strong bearish impulsive move of five weeks ago, market operation went into a corrective sideways mode as it tackles the 1.37100 horizontal support area. A bearish breakdown of the area may see a southward drive towards the next major horizontal support at the 1.33920 area (green). Should there be a bearish misstep, we may see a bullish pullback to an area of value such as the 1.40000 horizontal resistance area (magenta).
On the daily time frame, price action has broken down a rising channel (blue) within which it has been operating for quite a while. However, there was little bearish follow-through as price action pulled back three days after the break of the rising channel. Presently, price action is in a sideways mode as it tackles the 1.37100 horizontal support area. We may see further sideways, or a northward pullback, of price action in the early part of this week but the 1.40000 area (magenta) is the immediate horizontal resistance. Should bears break down the 1.37100 area, we may see a southward drive towards 1.33920 (green), which is the next major horizontal support.
The EURUSD market is sideways, but the market operating mode is bearish. On the monthly time frame, the bullish candlestick of May took market operation to the 1.22610 horizontal resistance area (red) before a bearish turnaround from the area in June, and the bearish print in June broke the low of the May bullish candlestick. Meanwhile, the interim market operation in July is sideways but with a bearish tinge. The 1.17050 area (green) is the prevailing horizontal support on the monthly time frame.
Market operation on the weekly time frame is under a bearish technical impulse. After four weeks of sideway market operation below the 1.22610 horizontal resistance area (red), seven weeks ago, bears broke down the consolidation and, a week later, followed through with a relatively strong bearish impulsive move. Although a 3-week period of consolidation followed the bearish impulsive move, last week produced a bearish candlestick that signaled the intention of bears to restore market influence. Further strong bearish drive would readily hit the 1.17050 horizontal support area (green), which is about 100 pips away. Should there be a bearish failure, we may see further sideways of price action, or even a northward pullback, before a bearish continuation. Such a bearish continuation may see the completion of an ‘M’ pattern around the 1.16300 handle (purple).
Price action on the daily time frame is bearish but presently in consolidation within a falling wedge (blue). Meanwhile, on Thursday and Friday, price action printed two bearish candlesticks from the wedge resistance trendline. A bearish breakdown of the wedge support trendline would result in a southward directional impulse initially targeting the next horizontal support at the 1.17050 area (green). However, any bearish misstep would incentivize bulls for, perhaps, a retest of the wedge resistance trendline or a market engineering for liquidity grab above it before any southward turnaround.
The USDJPY market is technically bullish but operating in a sideways mode. On the monthly time frame, market operation made a northward impulsive move that broke above the previous horizontal resistance around 109.00, an area that has since been turned to a horizontal support. Meanwhile, the 109.00/111.60 zone (purple) is the operating channel for a sideways mode since April. The interim market operation in July surged to the 109.00 lower boundary before being pushed back by bulls. The 114.40 area (red) is a major horizontal resistance on the monthly time frame.
Market operation on the weekly time frame is presently in a bullish mode after a southward pullback. We can expect market operation to be more bullish than bearish as it attempts a retest of the upper boundary of the 109.00/111.60 channel (purple), from where a bearish swing started four weeks ago. The long tail on last week’s relatively big bullish candlestick portends a strong rejection of the 109.00 horizontal support area.
Price action on the daily time frame is on a bullish impulsive mode having broken above a recent area of consolidation that held for two days. The technical pattern tends to indicate a move for the completion of a ‘W’ pattern around the 111.60 area.
The EURUSD market is bearish. On the monthly time frame, a bullish candlestick took market operation to the 1.22720 horizontal resistance area (red) but could not break above it. From the area, a bearish candlestick was printed in June that broke below the low of the bullish candlestick printed in May, showing a bearish rejection of the area. Meanwhile, the interim market operation in July is bearish and below the low of the June bearish candlestick. Market operation is presently tackling the 1.17160 horizontal support area (green).
Market operation on the weekly time frame is bearish but it is approaching a horizontal support at the 1.17160 area (green) seen on the monthly time frame. We may see further bearish move in the early part of this week, but it will take a significant breakdown of the 1.16100 handle (blue) before we can have confidence in a sustained bearish drive.
Price action on the daily time frame is technically bearish but there is a decrease in bearish momentum as it approaches the 1.17160 horizontal support area (green). We may see some sideways or pullback of price action in the area in the early part of this week, but bears will likely restore their influence in the market after such reaction.
The GBPUSD market is under increased bearish pressure after the bearish print in June mitigated the bullish print of equivalent size in May, rejecting the horizontal resistance at the 1.42490 area (red). Presently, the interim market operation in July is printing bearish below the low of the June bearish print.
Market operation on the weekly time frame is impulsively bearish after the relatively big bearish print of six weeks ago. Last week’s bearish print dropped below an area of consolidation that was in place for four weeks but there was a bullish pullback, resulting in the printing of a long-tailed doji-like candlestick. Technically, we would see further bearish attempt this week to restore the southward impulsive move.
Price action on the daily time frame is in a falling channel (blue). Presently, it is at the channel resistance trendline where a bearish candlestick was printed on Friday. Much of the recent technical impulsive move is bearish and we can expect this to continue this week.
This week’s market operation. particularly on the majors, was dominated by fundamentals. However, htf technical reaction levels or zones (particularly on W1) held. This points to the need for scenario analysis and trading; that is, analyzing probabilities on both the bullish and bearish sides of the market, and then wait for confirmatory signals, particularly on an htf higher than our entry htf.
It also points to the importance of mapping and being aware of the immediate technical reaction zones (e.g. on W1 or D1 tf) above and below (supply/demand or resistance/support) current location of price action.
XAUUSD market operation got a bullish nudge with the printing of a bullish candlestick in July that rejected the horizontal support at the 1767.30 area. This situation arose after a sideway operation that was in place between May and June – the June bearish print having mitigated the May bullish print. Meanwhile, the 1767.30/1743.60 area (green) is the prevailing horizontal support on the monthly time frame, while the 1911.80 area is horizontal resistance.
Market operation on the weekly time frame is in a sideways mode just above the 1767.30/1743.60 horizontal support area (green) seen on the monthly time frame after the northward retracement of the bearish swing of six weeks ago. This is a pause in the market, and we should await a follow-through directional momentum after a breakout from the area.
On the daily time frame, price action went into consolidation after a 50 Fib retracement of the 1902.90/1750.50 downward swing. On Friday, it printed a bearish candlestick from the area, giving bears an opening to push for a southward turnaround. This may initially lead to a retest of the 1792.40/1786.90 minor horizontal support area (purple). Should bears succeed in this, they may push for a retest of the 1767.30/1743.60 major horizontal support area (green) seen on the monthly time frame.
