Event News Analysis - Consulting?

Trading Discussion News and Economy
21

Yes, Tom is correct, you have to step back and learn some more.

Always examples - back last June the ECB signaled that they would cease QE in Dec, so most people would say that this news in ‘priced in’.

But not so - in today’s robot driven market there is the need for confirmation, the robot cannot think (not yet) but it is good at reaction.

So come Dec 13 and confirmation from ECB that QE is finished - so Euro rise?

Nope, Eur/Usd FELL Dec14 at 8.00 gmt .

What went wrong? - nothing really, the bots were charged with their buys, the news confirmed the direction - thing is there needed to be a level, somewhere that there would be a bunch of buy orders - always seek value if buying, the better the discount the more the buy.

22

Where would that level be?

Always close by, imagine a bunch of Euro buys, so much so that price jumps (hr1) - so think to yourself -wonder did all the buys get filled, wonder would there be more sitting there, would they pull those buys, has anything changed to cause that.?

So you want to buy at discount - then buy where those guys didn’t get filled:

Btw, note where the bots were programmed to take their profits yesterday.

Eur_Usd_hr4
Eur_Usd_hr41366×768 120 KB

23

Finally, you have combined TA and FA - a double bottom and end of week/month with a double top and a close of position with profit.

Now you have to look at the USD and Gold and learn what has happened there in this past week - see the influence on Euro?

Edit: you need to go to d1 on Xau/Usd

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24

tommor: every resource you find about double top and double bottom patterns will say that double top is announcing downtrend and double bottom is announcing uptrend. I was even waiting for confirmation candle to be fully formed. This is not a lottery where you bet on luck only. If the trading education, at least theoretical one, is including particular facts then those facts need to be respected by the trends in practice (real trading) too. I cannot look into the future to see what will happen. So there are rules that need to be respected. How could i had known that there will be uptrend after double top plus confirmation candle? I am sure the broker scammed me here. After double top has to be downtrend as all education resources are saying. I cannot just bet and hope that something will happen. Education needs to be realized in real trading too.

peterma, most of my recent giant losses occurred on poor CAD and poor RUB because of oil. I had no way to know that bad news for oil means bad news for CAD and RUB but i knew that bad news, since both cad (usdcad) and rub (usdrub) where on the right side of trading symbol, meant uptrend. I was in downtrend positions. On usdcad around 2 months. On usdrub around 5 days. Why did i open downtrend positions? Because i didn’t know there is anything bad about oil going on. Even if i did, i wouldn’t know this means bad for CAD and RUB so the direction of downtrend would most likely be still taken. This is big failure by me for sure. On friday i saw good news for EUR so i opened uptrend position but then got scammed again because trend went down. No idea how this is possible. News where clearly saying that EUR is going good and it was far away from resistance line. Peterma, I am sure that we are talking about the same situation on EURUSD but happening at different time. My was opened (uptrend) on 21th Dec because i saw good news about EUR and even uptrend announcement on EURUSD. However, i didn’t understand your suggestion ‘‘seek value’’. I would appreciate if you could please explain what kind of work would i had to do to predict that EURUSD is going down and give ‘‘decision priority’’ to this prediction rather than news event. I don’t understand what where you saying (btw, are you using for this any custom MT4 tool?) in your message containing screenshot. Surely there had been resistance line before i opened EURUSD uptrend position on 21th Dec and the main rule of trading is to give priority for retracement from resistance (or support) line and not upward or downward cross. But still based on the news event i saw 21th Dec, it should be uptrend.

I don’t understand those correlations unless they are in table such as:

https://www.myfxbook.com/forex-market/correlation

So my answer to your question is no, i don’t see anything what would cause EUR (downtrend on eurusd on 21th Dec) to be affected because of USD or Gold.

All those problems with evaluating the event can be (partially) solved with two opposite pending stop orders but here problems occur - i already described them but haven’t received any solution on this yet. Hopefully someone could please reply on this.

The oil, cad, rub was lecture forever. Now i will for sure know it but i hope i will be able to see good or bad news about oil fast enough.

My main worry remains the same: pending stop order to be executed by something else instead of news event which was (referring to event) the reason for me to open two opposite stop pending orders on the same trading symbol. Then when news gets effect on chart, it would go to the opposite direction. How could i protect myself from this?

Another sample is in attached file. This sample is about the problem of figuring out whether the event will cause trend movement or not. Kindly see attached file please. Fortunately in this sample the title of the event is saying to which symbol is event related to: Since two countries are mentioned already in the title, the answer is obvious: symbol USDCNY. It would be very hard if country/ies name(s) was/were missing. Or if individual’s name weren’t available. Based on individual person’s name, it is easy to google it for info where he or she is coming from and lookup for this country’s local currency. But it is beyond my understanding how can i know whether or not this attached event will move the trend on USDCNY? Even more complicated: If USDCNY moves, how could i know that pending stop order (either buy or sell) will be executed because of this EXACT event?

event sample
event sample1760×829 113 KB

25

You say that when a double top becomes an uptrend its because you the broker made it. You have no hope of making money from trading. Stop now.

26

tommor: see:

https://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:double_top_reversal

and hundreds of other resources about double top and double bottom to make sure that i don’t lie. Besides this, i even waited for confirmation candle to be formed. Its clearly said that double top means downtrend is coming. I am not future reader or mind reader to know where the price will for sure go. Trading is not a lottery where i would earn from luck only. But this is OFFtopic because i am asking completely different question(s) and still, after 14th Nov, waiting for the answer(s).

27

First up - oil.

Not wishing to repeat and not wanting to blow my own trumpet, check out what I posted back on Nov 11 when there was a suggestion from Saudi Arabia about a cut in oil production in order to raise price.

Think about what had happened in that country to a US resident and how the US President was constrained in how to react, and then that same country aiming to raise price.

Canada is a commodity country, one of the comm dolls - commodity dollars, so the price of commodities affects the value of CAD. Oil price influences the price of all commodities.

In such an environment the FA suggests the safer side is a sell on CAD .

Edit: btw not much cold yet here.

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28

Next piece - entering a trade on Dec 21:

The market is made up of us humans with all our weaknesses and traits.

Friday past was the end of the week, the end of the month and the end of the year, traders were off early, either heading to a bar or older guys off home.

There is no way that these guys leave positions open - they close, so if they have been buying they have to sell to close.

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29

Next piece, buying at value:

If nothing has changed and price has risen as expected and you have a pocket full of money and want to get into the action.

The one big rule is not to chase, the market usually shakes out chasers, look to where price left off (hr1) in a hurry, good chance it will head back there to pick up the buy orders that never got filled because the matching sell orders were not there - there are new sell orders there now because price is heading down.

Now to gold and USD - correlation is what drives the notion of ‘the zone’ it fluctuates with current affairs.

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30

Sometimes I’m not so good with words, here is oil on hr4, the arrow is date of linked post, first look left, then right to get an image of oil traders thinking:

WTI_HR4
WTI_HR4959×469 45.7 KB

31

The thinking behind Gold vs USD is very old, in times of trouble people buy Gold and also Yen.

You will have to research yourself why Yen, the info is out there.

Anyways if the market is buying Gold then it’s selling USD on the day.

Here is how TA and FA meet, see the d1 on Xau/Usd - price reached a level and of course back to that earlier post - Friday, Dec 21 it turned - now check Eur/Usd same day…guys off to the bars.

Xau_Usd_D1
Xau_Usd_D11125×419 51.9 KB

Edit: 1265.79 yellow line is Thursday Dec 20th close. -

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32

peterma do you remember from where did you get the first news about oil? Of course with word ‘‘first’’ I am referring to the RECENT oil situation and not since you started trading. Was the first news you saw about oil from Eikon? Although ‘‘my’’ broker doesn’t offer Saudia Arabian currency to trade but I believe that oil prices went down and not up (you said ‘‘raise’’). Cad and Rub seemed to have the same negative situation (the correlation) as oil and all those prices went down (usdcad, usdrub both uptrend) but unfortunately i figured out this by far too late.

I apologize for keep asking the same question over and over again but still noone answered me: how do i know if exact news Event, being analyzed/read by me, will cause trend movement or not? In one of my recent posts i showed sample of event but noone gave me procedure how to figure out if event will cause trend movement. I surely need to know this otherwise some other factor could execute pending stop order (either buy or sell) which could cause disaster if exact event also causes it with delay.

33

I would vote for “you don’t”?!

34

cigar true, i don’t but i am asking what kind of work needs to be done that i will know? My knowledge about news event analysis is very very bad and really need to learn this. I am focused on patterns (price action) too much and forgetting that particular events could cause unwanted directions of a trend. Thats why i am asking this same question over and over again.

35

Well, I guess one way is to look over the weekend on what “high” impact events are happening
and to be sure you are out of any pair from that country prior to the announcement. I’m sure there are ways it can happen to the good, but my luck is it spikes, puts me in and a couple seconds later stops me out.
You’d think the opposite could/would happen, but not to me.

36

another way to look at it is to analyse price - often than not price will “price in” what it wants to do prior to news coming out, regardless of the outcome

37

Today, for the second time in my trading career, my ENTIRE LIFE SAVINGS on trading account where lost. Once again, after i was talking in this forum topic (i opened it):

https://forums.babypips.com/t/what-else-can-i-do-to-avoid-this?source_topic_id=179781

I lost everything. New broker scammed me again. I reported previous broker to UK Ombudsman and today another broker stole all my money AGAIN. Everything from the past 6 years i worked for, waking up at 5am to earn 600 ( ! ) eur PER MONTH is gone. I know i will be banned from this forum after saying the following but i have to: i discovered that chief compliance officer stole my money from PREVIOUS broker account. Their chief compliance officer took all my money i had on account in previous broker. Honestly, I was going even that far to search on crime darknet to try to get in touch with killers on contract and successfully tracked down address of compliance officer using his credit report and background report. Fortunately, i was too afraid to get scammed by them and decided to not proceed. Soon i realized it was correct decision otherwise i may have moved to somewhere where i wouldn’t want to be.

Today, my balance on new broker is again ZERO. I had no way to know that it will happen what it did with AUD and i was in uptrend position.

I was politely asking for help here… Endlessly asking how to know whether or not news event will move the trend and on which trading symbols. Noone has DIRECTLY answered my question. Now its too late.

I am only a small step away from suicide and as much as i hate to share this negativism with you, i had to. For the second time i lost all my money… Money i worked so hard for :cry: All my consumed time, all my efforts, all my educations during the years, everything is gone. Everything.

Please, to everyone: When any future user of your forum will be politely asking a question and will be needing direct answer, I would encourage you for his or her benefit, to NOT ignore him/her. You don’t know his/her situation. In NO way i am blaming you (neither of you on the forum). You are NOT responsible for my lost money. The broker is. But what I am saying is: Before his/her life would be nearing the end, as my does, please try to answer his/her question - he/she may be really needing it.

38

Aye, I’ve read that quite a number of times, the key is the type of news.

I remember back about 4 or 5 months a respected member saying how Eur/Chf had reacted on a given day, that it was pure TA and the FA had no idea as to the cause.

I linked to some news that drove the price.

Eur/Chf is similar to Eur/Gbp in that many businesses use it day to day - facilitated by our friendly banks.

Worth noting the flat area Tuesday -

So what happened Yesterday … most guys figured Gold buying - probably had a hand.

But could it be predicted?

Eur_ChfHr1
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39

The news that I linked to back awhile was relevant again to Eur/Chf this time last month except it was in the opposite direction:

Eur_ChfHr1_01
Eur_ChfHr1_01373×599 23.6 KB

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40

What news could break the famed correlation of the Euro and Chf?

On Thu Feb 7th would a trader then buy the Euro?

However, the relationship between the Swiss franc and euro is even stronger than this. This is because Switzerland is situated directly in the middle of the eurozone,

How the chart above ended a couple of hours later:

Eur_ChfHr1
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