EW, Gartleys, Fibos, and market timing

Chizzenpips,

Thanks for the help with the counts, I really want to improve me EW skills. Are you saying you get free monthly and daily counts on the majors? I think I know the site you are referring to, but can’t seem to find that info. Any chance you could eloaborate or email me the URL.

Looking forward to working with you.

Modo

Done. If you could use your membership stripes and post the url here? Still have to earn mine.

Still standing aside on these pairs, watching for 1300 and/or 1500 movement, quite inevitable? I may not have the time to post again, coz of the rush.

Yeah, I haven’t traded in almost 2 days, ADP in half an hour should get things moving, particularly uj.

Thanks a lot for the email, checking it out now.

Thanks AltoFx, welcome to the thread :slight_smile:

Some trendlines are really hard to brake huh?

I was stopped out at +50. In this case I trailed my stop above the congestion area and didn’t wait for a swing high, because it was so close to my entry point, so momemtum definitely wasn’t good.

Switching to the 15 min chart I had an opportunity to re enter the trade, but only went for 30 pips. I choose the first D because it’s a round number, it was completed exactly on the 161.8 time retracement, and scrolling back it’s been a good support and resistance area. Definitely a good risk reward ratio, with both trades, not the one that I would’ve wanted, but good results.

On a side note, with yesterday’s trade I was monitoring ichimoku indicators, and those things REALLY work to spot almost perfect support and resistance areas huh?

I just started to study that, but if it complements this in the future, I’ll try to incorporate it.

Hey Duchas, where did you spot your AB leg? That confluence looks good but I don’t seem to find it in my chart. :wink:

Lol I didn’t find it either, could you guys send it to me please?
Thanks.

Ok I see it! THanks, I’m drawing my channels right now, I needed this clarification to know the direction of the market.

REgarding entries, gartleys and butterflies should help with that.

Currently I can’t locate a fib/time set up that let us ride wave 5.

Let me try to spot some channels and then I’ll post them so you can tell me what you think. :slight_smile:

I used the same as you!

1,4078- 1,5014

I have no convergences there. :confused:

yeah you are right. I used 1.382 fib level. and i see you dont have it. hahahaha

And surprise thats not an standard number too, i want to see where it come froms, if i dont find it, i will stay with classics:

  • 1.618
  • 1.272
  • 1.000
  • 0.786
  • 0.618
  • 0.500
  • 0.382

Lol it’ll be interesting to know if that level is of common use or not. You know I have that level but for time retracements.

Anyway, I like that convergence because of the fib levels shown in different Xa’s. That’s a good example to test.

Let me know if you find something. :wink:

You don’t have that link ‘send-a-message-via-mail-to-‘in your profile? We used that to pass the url over and I haven’t gotten any messages from admin. Please rectify.

The day I started on Phil’s thread, I had to close ALL indicators, I had the hardest time switching off zigzags. You’ve got to stop going lower than H1, where waves of minute degree are observed, otherwise don’t say you’re doing EW. Again, so that we can be talking about the same observed wave(s). I have to remove Ichi visualization from H4, it works best on D1, and involves less work! The thing with it is you’ve got to back-test like mad.

21xxGMT/030310: About that confluence, guess it stems from knowing which wave one is measuring &/or projecting. What I see is that price touched our sub-minuette baseline channel, or minuette acceleration channel (by now you get the drift) just completing wave c of sub-minuettte (4) at 38.2 retracement of (3), and now our wave (5) down, not 5 of C of (4) up, is here. But we still have to weather thru wave 1 and 2 of (5) complexes/side-action I’m almost placing an entry short-stop (never instant) risk R=2%, SL = 100p, 140p max, since we are aiming at 1.4760’s, 340p away, 161.8% projection of wave i minuette for iii, brown channel, or even 200% at 700p away, TP = 2R, or 3R. It may type easy, but the patience and discipline and confidence in our count(s) to stick it to the end is hard to master.

Watch for the GY, if Gbp goes, it normally goes on both pairs, reaping bigger on GY. I’m not feeling what the E$ is doing on H4 right now, though I should be going long.




Correction – the smallest EW waves of minuette degree (not minute) are argued to be observable on H1 timeframe, past there, you can’t get a decent count out of those, though I try to count even smaller, thanx to the fractal nature of wave (wave in a wave in a wave).

For E$, there is a great disparity between what I see on their MN1 charts and my IBfx, from 1989 where mine start, to 1994. {A}with circle and B should be higher than X and A than C. Thus I can’t quite say which primary is unfolding? Sometimes the wave wont fit a count, so they plot it on logarithmic scale (I never tried) and voila!

That not withstanding, we’re @ an intermediate © unfolding, wave 3 minor or minute ending/ended, upto the (iii)9wave on D1. Further in, we seem to be on a wave three of a C of a correction, possibly now going for a (iv) ‘ on the brown upper base channel of that int ©, you dig? Clearer after one has finished pinning all pieces up. The shots are placed below in order.

Yesterday I jumped off the up wave at barely 1.3650, halfway inside a channel and it shouldn’t happen again? Now the remaining distance of 150p or so is so small for predators of our size. I choose to wait it out as it goes up, catch any downs on a London-vol. I’d argue for IKH H4 bullish, but clearly not for longer since on D1 IKH, price is bouncing off KijSen?

If you read the EW outlook for E$ at AF, they had said before that wave (iii) would be over at 61.8% correction of previous upward intermediate (B), and correction might reach 1.4000. We ought to fibo around now for upward limits? Otherwise the gartley fit well. Where can we read it?

GY coming right up. Keep pipin’






104xgmt/040310thu:The cable outlook has changed somewhat with an alternative count, such that the current deceleration channel of the green sub-minuette might hold, and then bullish with break of upper channel going for alt (4) at the brown upper minuette channel. A H4 close above 1.5150 will make me buy, below 1.5000 short as before.


For the GY, we are currently at primary {V}. On MN1 the first shot below shows AF analysis count for intermediates of the current primary, such that we are still on intermediate (III) of pri {V}. But if I was to recount it now, I’d do it like in the second shot there – but we’ll go with MNshot a of the AF guys since they have Pretcher as striker and he’s proven the best, among other varied reasons.

So make it pri {V} unfolding, intermediate (III) minor 5 minute iii ending or ended to make it minute iv (I have to put brackets for all minutes later, currently they look as is on site). I’ll start looking for an alternative count. See fibo convergences on H4– I got them from measuring projection iii of wave i, including wick, and retracement of iii assuming it is complete, to get convergence on 61.8 projection and 38.2 retracenemt.






Good news and bad news:

Good News it seem it worked.

Bad news i wasnt there.

Anyone see more patterns!?

http://forums.babypips.com/176857-post2622.html

As much as I can count, I’m really nowhere in gartleys. I think they complete form at a correction ABC, my current E$ count isn’t clear yet so I’m unable to put it up at that timeframe. Maybe Wrtm.

For the EY, we are in cycle IV primary C, intermediate/minor 2 having completed at c last week, so 3 is now on. We’re at waves i and ii minute and minuette complexes for 3, bullish in the next months.

You’ll allow me to renegade on my promise for $Y, I removed it in preference of $Franc which mirrors E$, and later Aud/$ and $/Cad which sort of mirror each other. According to these guys at AF, any savvy EW analyst ought to keep a H1 current count of the DJIA, coming up next, stay tuned.