Yes, optimistic on the time scale but realistic on the hurdles.
The biggest problem will not be trade tariffs, rather it will be our exports of services to the EU.
Currently all services are licence free, the new format still to be thought about and then negotiated.
The Institute of Fiscal Studies’ most recent research was published a few hours ago:
interesting text. how come that the pro and cons are beeing discussed after the vote anyways?
he sounds very optimistic but it can be done in 2 years if effort is put in since the laws and regulations in london already are fit to brussels demmands. in fact it can be done even faster but london is (as they always were trying in the 40 years of EU membership) to negotiate deals better then other countries get and “extra sausages” as we call it in germany where UK gets favourable conditions noone else has/did get.
which is clearly visible in the statement of politicians saying “we would like a deal like norway hast just modified to fit our needs more”.
the impact on services is what truly hurts the UK as london is the financial service provider number 1 on the world and the EU was a huge number of clients and the “solid ground on which london is grassing/growing” exports on the other habd were never significant compared to the financial service sector.
a service (especially financially) is hard to sustain in the EU if youre not a member of the EU. but thats not only for EU true. London had a benefit of growing in a 550 million people market. access to the USA market is limited outside the US and londons service exports nearly non existant on this single market (USA) and other single markets on the world.
sometime in february i made a post about that topic when tje brexit started to go into the public opinions. stressing that issue. if i find it ill post a link.
Sometimes a few of my colleagues say I’m too hard on politicians.
Here are two news reports separated by just two days, the first details some of the difficulties that lie up ahead for the UK.
If skim reading, then just read the last paragraph:
Will Brexit deal suit the City of London? - BBC News
Thinking about that, as a politician well versed in ‘the City’ how could I contribute meaningfully?
Like this, skim read the second last paragraph:
Brexit: IDS urges EU exit talks ‘as soon as possible’ - BBC News
Check it out the interesting article [U]Brexit fuels Swiss anxiety over new deal with EU[/U] – BBC news
Very detailed and complete information to keep in mind.
national debt UK (blue) compared to germany (orange) and greece (green)
BIP = GDP
not calculated in the post brexit QE of 250 billion £
Well the good news is that at last we have a date, end of March 2017 for trigger, the summer of 2019 for the exit at latest.
The word in the EU is that a ‘hard exit’ is the way to go, that means no access to the single market and restrictions on EU immigration in the UK.
One person said this evening ‘it us 27 against the UK’.
The official line from the EU came from Donald Tusk, he welcomed the clarity that the date gives us and commented that the 27 EU countries could now “engage to safeguard (their) interests”.
Quite a few businesses have been waiting for this clarity, now they can prepare how best to profit.
Oh, and it seems the City will feel the draft:
Banks to Miss Out on Special Favors in May’s Brexit Plans - Bloomberg
That’s why so-called hard Brexit.
any news on brexit lately? over here in continental europe its old news noone is talking about anymore so im pretty much cut off from interesting news.
Congratulations to UK citizens who have longed for the day they can break away from a socialist regime. Too bad we’re just getting started in the U.S.
The UK has been very successful circa 1800 to date. The problem as was in the 70s is that we cannot get over these historical successes and focus on the country’s now and future; how to navigate the current challenges given our current hand of cards.
The disease is nostalgia and living in past glory, it is insidious, and affects all inhabitants of this island that proudly call themselves British.
