It is sad that the masses are the ones that always suffer.
Unfortunately in a time of crisis the most vulnerable members of society are the ones to suffer the most - the poor, the elderly, children, disabled people, and so on and so forth. People aren’t born with an innate sense of empathy, that is something that needs to be deliberately taught to children, and then there are those sick individuals who are incapable of learning how to be empathetic to the suffering of others.
Did I understand right that Theresa May is now suggesting postponing the exit notification to next year?
truth to be told: it will be postponded to “never” and with the option of a second referendum.
im still holding my 1:5 bet up. risk 1$ win 5$
She’s quoted in both today’s [I]Sunday Telegraph[/I] and [I]Sunday Times[/I] as saying “until later [U]this[/U] year”, after the leadership election and preparation of a negotiation-team and some parameters.
Among the five Tory leadership candidates, the [I]latest[/I] date being offered for giving formal notice under Section 50 is January 2017. My own guess is that it will happen earlier than that.
Neither major political party will tolerate a second referendum, in my opinion. That’s one of the few things they’re entirely agreed on (and that’s including “both sides” of the Conservative and “both sides” of the Labour parties.) The fact “the result stands” seems beyond serious contention (however little the Scottish Nationalists like it).
I think that the powers to be in Europe have also said that freedom of movement is not negotiable. This is what the referendum was really decided on so it really does look like it’s over now. Importantly I think they have also said that without freedom of movement the common market will also be closed to the UK. The Scots would have to vote for independence and then probably go through the same procedures as any ‘new’ applicants would have to so they are probably out also for the foreseeable future.
Interesting!
On our BBC-equivalent website she is said to have stated in an ITV-tv interview that in her opinion the formal notice will not be given this year! But I cannot find the interview…
I think that’s for “membership of the internal market”. But as is shown in the cases of some other non-EU countries, “[U]access to[/U] the market” isn’t the same thing as “[U]membership of[/U] the market”?
This is where I think it’s important to distinguish between “membership of” and “access to”?
Found it!
She says at about 7:35 mins into this 15min interview with Robert Peston (last interview at bottom of page) that she has said that invoking Article 50 should not be before the end of the year…
Theresa May: Britain needs more than a Brexit prime minister - ITV News
Part of the problem for new applicants is that national laws have to be scrutinized for adherence to EU law, this will not cause any difficulty for Scotland since their laws long since comply.
Another obstacle is voter consent, the EU likes to be satisfied that the aspiring entrant country’s voters want to be part of the EU either by referendum or by General Election - again no problem for Scotland.
The only obstacle that Scotland may encounter could be from Spain, if they can overcome that then there will be a speedy route for accession.
[QUOTE=Manxx;775582]Found it!
She says at about 7:35 mins into this 15min interview with Robert Peston (last interview at bottom of page) that she has said that invoking Article 50 should not be before the end of the year…
[url=http://www.itv.com/news/2016
Yes Manxx, many EU TV stations are reporting on this remark of ‘not before the end of the year’.
Causing some consternation in EU circles, then again Gove talked about 2020, yet Mrs Leadsom has just said that it should be triggered immediately.
Strangely, the latter is from the trading/banking industry and therefore proposing Leave from such a person should inspire.
Sadly, since becoming a politician things have changed, in 2013 she said that Brexit would be “a disaster for our economy”.
Is she not also claiming to have a fast track program that could get UK out of the EU in one year?
If Britain/England is going to leave then surely the quicker the better. It is always the unknown that does the damage. If the quit notice is not invoked soon then things start to deteriorate very quickly and one of the first signs will be a collapse in the housing market which is a big part of the UK economic engine. House prices are already very high in the UK and, in spite of even lower rates, it could suffer a major implosion from people being too wary to buy anything until the situation is clear.
Uncertainty over employment of EU citizens, uncertainty over investment in the UK, uncertainty over the financial sector in the city, uncertainty over access to EU markets…if all this continues for 6mths before even giving notice and then another 2 years of exiting process and yet another maybe 5-7 years of renegotiating terms and conditions of trading, employment, investment terms, security, …huh!!!
No, not housing, that will be later, commercial property will come first.
Unusually, it will be the Capital at the early stages, where prices are most inflated. One of the drivers is demand coupled with access to capital, remove one and the outlook changes, remove both and…
Yet again the Telegraph:
Singapore bank halts London mortgage lending following Brexit
I’m sure you are right and that is a very bad thing. But housing will certainly be a close second, as it says in that article:
“London’s residential property market suffered a further blow overnight as a major Singaporean lender said it would temporarily halt lending against homes in the capital. Singaporeans have in recent years been among the biggest buyers of London property, favouring new-build, luxury flats.”
It all paints a very gloomy and disturbing picture!
it goes much further then housing markets. it starts with the fast moving capital (stocks, bonds, etc).
for value buyers and true investors UK is a complete no go at the moment and will stay untill things are more clear. and if a brexit happens, UK will stay a no go for much longer times.
assume you bought several buildings in UK for 100 million pounds last year. you had to convert $ into pounds for that. now your investment lost 15% within 2 days. 15 million lost. add to this loss the fact that the property you are holding you can not sell over night because its not a CFD that can be closed with one click. add to it that even if you decide to get rid of this real estate you need to have a buyer: but buyers are rare in real estate in uncertain political situations.
so on the instant loss of 15% through currency exchange mechanism you can easily suffer another loss of 15-20% because its harder to find a buyer than it was before the brexit and uncertainty.
its absolutely no surprise foreign banks try to protect their clients from making such losses as that can endanger their clients and in the end the bank itself if enough clients slip into financial instability.
that was one among many things which was forseen by intelligent people but been ignored by voters.
credit default swaps for UK rise and thereby making foreign investments more expensive in its fix costs and even less lucrative for foreign investors.
a chain that only started yet.
Manxx, I really hope that I am very wrong, really wrong.
Also your description is apt, especially the disturbing part.
I have been searching for the positive in all of this, I truly believe that for ordinary people there has to be something that will improve our lives, all I see is acrimony, fear and resentment.
I’d say that perhaps the first words of hope came today from a former UK PM, one that gets a bad press of late.
i doubt spain will try to make any trouble for a scotish uk exit and EU entree. politically it can trigger a catalonia exit of spain - yes. but from what i have observed it is becoming visible that people of catalunia are witnessing the monetary and political mess that is happening in UK right now and realize that a cut between something that is considered by the world as “one and united” brings much bigger problems than opportunities/benefits and in the end doesnt change much.
UKs “fragile stage” at the moment made the EU sceptics over here extrenely quiet in the last week.
its always said that the effect/impact of big political decitions is very hard (to impossible) to forsee. in this case it is definately true.
what doesnt kill you makes you stronger. im not sorry. gives insight into some aspects of human nature which people who never witnessed similar things simply can not have.
our geand parents had such insight and felt the 2nd world war on their own skin and then decided to create the EU.
and their “spoiled kids” (all of us) dont truly understand what their grand parents gave to them.
someone who travels more and further away then to spain (in UKs case ibiza. germans mallorca) for summer vacations is very well aware that between bulgarians / rumanians / polnish and britons are much more similarities than differences.
theres really no need to listen to the politics at the moment. they are completely powerless.
and especially in UK they lost all control.
as long as the gold price is rising in this speed as its doing now. the YEN staying strong and gaining strength. the CHF gaining strength the gbp loosing.
commodity prices falling unrelated to gold prices.
as long as all these signs are visible to everyone; we all know that we are in a crisis even if the indexes like dow or ftse dont show it immediately. the signs of “lack of trust and believe in a better future” are all existant.
Yes, it is so, Turbo…
I really did not.think that mature markets such as these would ignore the writing on the wall, but then I did not expect a seven-year bull trend to turn overnight…and although it spent the entire 2015 hovering up like a kestrel its 2016 wings already look tired of flapping…
Stay short, it is going to happen , I tell myself…