Fed announces interest rate decision today

US stocks end mostly lower

US stock market ended marginally lower on Tuesday as investors risk appetite was undermined by reports China resists to US demands in trade negotiations. The S&P 500 slipped 0.01% to 2832.57. Dow Jones slid 0.1% to 25887.38. The Nasdaq however rose 0.1% to 7723.95. The dollar weakening accelerated ahead of Fed interest rate decision today as factory orders maintained steady growth rate of 0.1% in January when an increase was expected. The live dollar index data show the ICE US Dollar index, a measure of the dollar’s strength against a basket of six rival currencies, fell 0.2% to 96.35 but is higher currently. Futures on US stock indexes point to mixed openings today.

DAX 30 outperforms European Indices

European stocks extended gains on Tuesday led by auto maker stocks. The GBP/USD joined EUR/USD’s continued climb with both pairs reversing currently. The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.6%. The German DAX 30 gained 1.1% to 11788.41, France’s CAC 40 added 0.2% and UK’s FTSE 100 advanced 0.3% to 7324.

DE30_O_20March2019

Nikkei gains while other Asian indices slip

Asian stock indices are mixed today. Nikkei recovered 0.2% to 21608.92 with yen resuming slide against the dollar. Chinese stocks are lower: the Shanghai Composite Index is down 0.01% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index is 0.2% lower. Australia’s All Ordinaries Index lost 0.3% despite the Australian dollar continuing its slide against the greenback.

Brent up

Brent futures prices are edging higher today supported by OPEC cuts and US sanctions on Venezuela and Iran. The American Petroleum Institute late Tuesday report indicated US crude inventories fell by 2.1 million barrels last week and gasoline inventories dropped by 2.8 million. Prices ended marginally higher yesterday. May Brent added 0.1% to $67.61 a barrel on Tuesday. Today at 16:30 CET the Energy Information Administration will release US Crude Oil Inventories.

It seems Brent Crude Oil will establish an upside on range of around $72 after all.

Yes, with dollar weakening set to persist with the Fed taking the dovish stance, the only risk to continued Brent uptrend is a fall in demand if global economic slowdown sets in. But US and China seem to be moving toward a trade deal…

Can’t see why oil demand would shrink significantly globally.

True, with US and China delegations of high rank officials planning reciprocal visits to conclude a deal by end of April, there doesn’t seem to be a serious likelihood of prolonged US-China trade confrontation resulting in disruption of global economic growth. So significant demand side shocks are not very likely, leaving supply side the driving factor.

I doubt even a recession would significantly reduce oil demand, only growth in oil demand.

I haven’t come across a study of recession effect on global oil demand, it is reasonable to expect an direct relationship between income and oil demand. However, a recession shouldn’t significantly affect oil demand: let’s say 1% contraction translates into 2% drop in oil demand, it shouldn’t result in a 50% - 100% change in price… :slight_smile: