Retrospective Sunday, 26 Nov
I’ve decided to write some sort of weekly summary to discuss aspects of my trading I want to highlight and improve, as well as performance and prep on the following week.
Let’s start with performance
So looking at my posts from last week.
- I took 12 trades
- 6 wins
- 6 losses
- 50% win probability
I started a fake balance of 1000 USD and I came out slightly positive +5 USD but this is because two of my losing trades I cut early because I understood my issue, instead of letting the trade hit the stop loss.
Any significant news that had any impacts
For this I am using a combination of the economic calendar on BP and the analysis post from Pip Diddy.
Observing the major FX pairs, I noticed that USD had a really massive impact on Wednesday 22nd 13:00 UTC.
There were three US reports at this time and the only report that stood out to me was the Durable Good Order which was reported worse than expected and this the dollar really took a hit. The sentiment seemed to be positive for the greenback a couple of hours before the report came out, and it caused a bullish trend until the evening.
What is this “Durable Good Order”? why did it have such a big impact?
Key learning points, psychology and schedule
- Recapped on hedging risks. Check currency correlation with any open positions before entering
- Use ADR to find the nearest average tp or sl. Use fib lines to confirm levels, as well as sr levels
- Be stricter with conditions. If I am using a combination of Squeeze Momentum and Wavetrend Oscillator, only enter when they are both pointing to the same direction. DO NOT ENTER if they are pointing different directions. This happened on the three losses I incurred, so if only I had cut these, I would’ve not entered these trades.
- For squeeze momentum, setup alerts for momentum loss. Activate when you have an open trade.
- Place limit orders instead of market order to find the perfect entry point and validate strategy.
- Risk / reward ratio does not have to be 1:1, place on levels instead.
- Recapped on STOP orders and LIMIT orders. STOP orders are for trend continuation orders, LIMIT orders are for trend reversal orders.
Although all orders were fake, I tried to imagine they were all real trades. Heck, even my initial balance and order sizes were as if I am investing real money. There are a couple of factors I want to highlight:
Jitters on entry. I am so excited when an alert triggers, I feel like I need to move fast and place a market order straight away. I am aware that my brain is doing this, I plan to just slow down for now and place a pending order instead to control emotions here.
Trend leaving me behind. There was a specific trade with LTC where I place a LIMIT order and my prediction was correct, but my order was shy a couple of pips, so the price action missed my entry and left without me. I felt so frustrated, but I think I need to instead focus on the fact that it’s a mistake that didn’t cost me anything. Afterall, you don’t lose what you didn’t have in the first place (ha, so philosophical)
I also want to assess my trading diligence. Trading takes so much of my time! (Duh!) It’s crazy, between gym, salsa, drinking, full time work and a relationship (as well as other ventures), journalling twelve trades felt like so much!
I like the format but perhaps a good solution would be to make the journal entries into smaller versions. My current idea is a screenshot of the chart, order placement screen, and a short description of why we are entering this trade. Update with result as well as any notes for restrospective later.
Adjustments and next week preparation
- Adjust alerts for only when the indicators are pointing one way, and the other isn’t pointing another way.
- For Squeeze Momentum, create an additional alert for when the momentum is lost, and start it when a position is opened
- Draw sr lines, fib lines and use ADR to determine entry, exits, stop losses. NEVER place market orders.
- Watch out for EUR from Wednesday onwards, according to the economic calendar, there are multiple economic data reports coming out that are high impact until Friday.