Fib Retracement Trading

Yup i got in too early… still in the trade, but it looks like the swing is respecting the next biggest grid out that you highlighted… I was a bit worried that that would be the case. So we’ll have to see if the stop holds. Either way the biggest problem with this trade was just that my entry price is relativly crap…

Oh well… I got a EURJPY short trade that has finally went to 38% and it looking good so far… If it continues it would easily offset the worst case scenario on this USDCAD trade.

I’m so excited!

After opening a new demo account, this time with a 1:100 ratio, I made my first three trades with this Fib system and it worked out!

However, looking for a good entry point really plays with your mind. You look at all the indicators and hope you’re reading them correctly even after all the back/forward testing that indicates it should be. You open the New Order window but then doubt yourself and then back out just to wait and see what the next candle does.

Finally I recall your comment several posts back about just trusting the indicators and realizing this is just a demo so just do it!

So I placed the trades, 2 lots each, closed my laptop and went to work (broke out of my conservative comfort zone a litte :rolleyes:).

When I got home, I wanted to rush over to my laptop to check the results but held back dreading the worst. When I did finally open it up, opening 1 eye at a time too, I found 1 order still going. I had put a trailing stop loss of 15 pips each and it was at 75.00. The other order stopped out at 20.00. So I had a $90 day so far, or 45 pips! That’s right on with my daily pip goal.

I know not to get too carried away as this could just be beginner luck, but with a bit more practise with this Fibs system, who knows…but I like it :slight_smile:

Yes, nice opportunity on GY and EY this morning to get back into the dominant flows

Good for you Sweetpip!

trade update… well… its been a painful experience thus far. I am playing the wrong grid, but as we can see thus far its come down to what would stop me out, but with my stop placed at the swing low i’m still in the trade because price action did what I described. Came low enough to take out the 87%, but the next bar established back up inside the grid so i’m still hanging on for it.

I’ve got limit orders staged at the 23.6% level and my stop still at the swing low. But to be honest I don’t know that I’ve got my OCO set correctly (Never actually managed using an actual OCO in this platform before) and with no tech support available at these hours I guess there is only one way to find out! Should be a binary outcome by the time I wake up. I’ll either be happy or sad in about 9 hours… wait and see!

Cheers folks!


I will keep my fingers crossed for you Daedalus but I suspect this is whats getting in the way. May be setting up for a continuation of the downtrend


Well it worked! I set my limit order went to bed and woke up to see it had been hit (admitidly not by much). I try and front run the values by a pip or two and was actually using the bigger grid (image 2) for the correct value because thats what the charts were respecting. The system worked… it was a painful a drawn out trade to hold, but it did what was the most probable thing for it to do, and thats all I can ask for!

My OCO screwed up and re-entered me after my exit… I need to call EFX and see how to do it correctly… had to give back about 5 pips… nothing big, but i would’ve rather kept that + the commissions in my account.

Cheers!



Hey guys, i really wanna make it as a discretionary trader, i’ve learnt loads from the currency markets in such a short period. i do like to trade, i like it even better when the trades go my way. i was wondering whether it would be advisable setting up a higher risk :eek: account with the aim of using it soley with ‘robotic’ system, to offset ‘me’ if you will, and give me something to look at when i havent got any fib setups.

I have no faith in robotic systems of any sort. Even if they work for awhile they cant for long for obvious reasons if you think about it. The market will adjust to any large scale intervention (look at the news traders and their autoclickers). Most especially if you are in a losing streak do you really have the mentality to let a prpgramme enter your trades (most dont). Finally you learn nothing from such a process. Rather like Lleyton Hewitt putting his serve machine on auto and walking away - whats the point. Your job is to learn how to be a trader and once you have achieved that the world is your oyster no matter what the market is up to

yeah your right, focusing on learning the market’s ups and downs is the best route to success i think.

A few profitable trades today, my broker’s screen(oanda) froze today not once, not twice but three times, each time i was in a trade…i put it down to a technical glitch. (my account is to small to warrant any attention i think). Or is it???:eek:

You can change the Java runtime parametres which may help.

Go to control panel > find the Java icon > double click > brings up
Java control panel > open Java tab (3rd one along between update
& security) > click “view” in Java Applet runtime settings > in Java
runtime parameteres (end column) double click the column then
type -Xmx256m

Also in general > temporary internet files > “settings” > delete files.
This deletes the temporary internet files which are stored on your
computer.

Try this & see if it helps.

morning guys, (well its morning over here :D) isn’t uncanny the way the market responds to fib’ lines, they don’t always hold, but so far i would say a good number of the trades I’ve made 80% or so, have retraced on a fib line as opposed to psychological support or resistance. Given that the major players in the market aren’t looking to make profit but rather stable their economies, price should pay no attention to the fib’ lines. Or am i wrong, do speculators control the day to day happenings of the market whilst central banks step in sporadically correct price when needed?

oh and thanks for that…lets hope it stops the problem

Glad to see you’re having some success with them! Well, major players in the markets, and various banks do use Fibonacci analysis the same as we do. There is a reason that buying and selling power steps in at these key areas. As far as speculators controlling the movements, I know in the S&P500 futures, big money moved the market and retail traders just got on for the ride 9 times out of 10. I can comment on the FX markets, though I suspect it would be the same.

Cheers!

Kaigen - meant to ask you earlier. What time frames are you using? Which ones are working for you the best?

i used the 1 hour time before but i used to get bored waiting around (figured it didnt suit my personality much). Ive been trying the 15min chart out now for three days now, with 20 pips as my profit target for most pairs …i’m having more success and trading more, win win. yesterday was my best day ever i won 6 out of 7 trades, my account grew by 21% and today hasnt been bad either 2 out of 3.

How can anyone with that icon of that baby be so bad? I laugh out loud every time I see that…killer!! Good luck to you.

ok im gonna run through a few of the trades i took this week, most were off fibs, the rest i used fibs and trend lines. This is gonna take a while my software doesn’t have the fancy arrows or writing tools so excuse the poor illustrations

ok.

image 1. this was the usdcad…i saw this just after i work up. i placed a limit order right above the 38% fib line, closed once i hit 20 pips.

Image 2. didnt use fib lines at all. placed a limit order above the first line of resistance level. placed the second resistance line as guide as where to close if the market ran away with it self. price action respected that resistance line.

image 3. i was waiting for a retrace to the 61% level, but once i saw a hammer forming i placed an order just above the previous candles closing price.

had to use fxcm demo charts, they’re clearer than mine are.




I have posted a more detailed description of this trade on the alternative templates thread. Although the settings are slightly different to Daedalus the intent is the same. We are in a major 4H downtrend, we get a 78.6 + retrace on the 1H which comes within 5 pips of the 100% line. Entry anywhere in this area with exit at the 38.2 gives a trade with a potentially huge R



edited my post above…shows the kinda of trades i make…will post more