What a difference a week makes. The impressive recovery off the 1.9335 lows suggests that pound is primed to retest the 2.0000 figure. While spot is currently struggling with the 38.2% retracement of the 11/28 to 1/22 descending channel, a more prominent Fibonacci level should stand as more convincing target. In fact the 38.2% fib level of the large 11/9 to 1/22 bear wave is a very real possibility as cable works off its severely oversold condition. [B][/B]
[B]Currency[/B]
[B]Fib Support / Resistance[/B]
[B]Bias[/B]
[B]EUR/USD[/B]
1.4970 – Full retracement and double touch of record high
[B]Bullish[/B]
[B]GBP/USD[/B]
1.9900 – 38.2% retracement, of the 11/28- 1/22 channel
[B]Bullish[/B][B][/B]
[B]USD/JPY[/B]
108.15 – 61.8% retracement of the 1/9-1/23 bear move
[B]Bearish[/B]
[B]USD/CHF[/B]
1.0885 – Full retracement of the 11/23-12/25 bull wave
[B]Flat[/B]
[B]USD/CAD[/B]
0.9950 – 50% retracement of the 11/14-1/22 bull wave
[B]Bullish[/B]
[B]AUD/USD[/B]
0.9055 – Top of fib congestion with 61.8% fib of 11/7-1/22 bear wave
[B]Bullish[/B]
[B]NZD/USD[/B]
0.8100 – A full retracement for a double touch on a generational high
[B]Bullish[/B]
[B]The Fibonacci Personality: [/B]As the great master of Pisa once noted all of life is composed of Fibonacci. I use these golden ratios to understand the movements of the market and profit from their predictions. Let me know what you think my analysis on the [Candlestick forum](http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/showthread.php?t=13956). • Euro Range Continues, Long-term Trend And Target Still Eying 1.50
• Fibonacci Will Tell Whether Pound Rebound A Retracement Or Trend
• Yen Consolidation Leaves Direction Clouded
• No Swiss Franc Bias Until Stable Support Either Gives Or Reflects Spot
• Still Long-term USDCAD Bullish, But Confidence Flagging As Parity Tested
• Fib Congestion Will Struggle to Hold Back The Long-Term Aussie Bull
• The Long-Term Kiwi Bull Trend Still Intact, Despite Broad Congestion
[B]
1/29/2008[/B][B] EUR/USD[/B]
[B]Strategy: Bullish against 1.4309, Targeting 1.5223[/B]
Breaking through the 1.4710 (61.8% of the latest bear wave correction) seems to be just the first step in a new EUR/USD upswing. With 1.50 so tantalizingly close there seems to be simply too much interest not to run it. Like many of my fellow traders, I am positioning for a break above November’s record high. But, unlike the others, I have a more precise objective in mind than just targeting the universally watched 1.50 level. The 138.2% Fibonacci extension of the 11/23 to 12/21 bear wave offers a first target of 1.5223. However, I will have to stay on top of the looming event risk from the US docket for sure. A surprise from any one of the top market moving events could quickly clear my fibs and mark the beginning of a new trend.
[B]1/29/2008[/B][B] GBP/USD[/B]
[B]Strategy: Bullish against 1.9575, Targeting 2.0030[/B]
What a difference a week makes. The impressive recovery off the 1.9335 lows suggests that pound is primed to retest the 2.0000 figure. While spot is currently struggling with the 38.2% retracement of the 11/28 to 1/22 descending channel, a more prominent Fibonacci level should stand as more convincing target. In fact the 38.2% fib level of the large 11/9 to 1/22 bear wave is a very real possibility as cable works off its severely oversold condition.
[B]1/29/2008[/B][B] USD/JPY[/B]
[B][/B]
[B]Strategy: Bearish against 110.06, Targeting 104.42[/B]
Although the yen continues to meander in the 106.00-107.00 region the overall bias in the pair remains to the downside as it traces out a series of lower highs. Near term resistance is seen around 108, having created a virtual ceiling over the past several days. Yet even if the pair clears that region it faces a host of Fib retracement levels from the 11/27 to 12/22 bear wave. With my bearish forecast I continue to target the 138.2% extension of the above mentioned wave to 104.42.
[B]
1/29/2008[/B][B] USD/CHF[/B]
[B]Strategy: Flat, waiting for a direction to develop from the range low around 1.0835/75 [/B]
Having hit a solid wall of support just below 1.0900 the Swissie is in state of flux. The pair could attempt a rally back to the 1.1170/1.1260 area which encompasses price action between the 38.2% and 50% Fib level of the most recent bull wave from 11/27 to 12/25; but if there is a confirmed break below 1.0850, the most likely target is 138.2% extension to 1.0616. For now, I am on the sidelines.
[B]
1/29/2008 USD/CAD[/B]
[B]Strategy: Bullish against 0.9965, Targeting 1.0465[/B]
Although the pair has receded from its recent highs USDCAD is holding its uptrend and as such the 1.0450 50% Fib of the massive 2/28/07 to11/07/07 bear move remains a valid target. However having moved back below the 38.2 Fib of the same wave, and after testing the waters below the psychologically significant 1.0000 level, the outlook for USDCAD is decidedly less certain. I remain bullish but my stops are very close.
[B]1/29/2008 AUD/USD[/B]
[B]Strategy: Bullish against 0.8600, Targeting 0.9400[/B]
The price action in the Australian dollar remains constructive to the upside especially now that the pair has recaptured the 38.2% level of the large 11/7 to 1/22 bear wave and appears intent on testing the next immediate retracement level just above 0.8950. I am bullish for the long term targeting a full retracement and retest of the 0.9400, multi-decade high.
[B]1/29/2008 NZD/USD[/B]
[B]Strategy: Bullish against 0.7375, Targeting 0.8107[/B]
The kiwi continues to cut a very large range; but having confirmed a second touch of the 50.0% retracement level of the 7/24 to 8/17 bear wave, the floor looks firm and the long-term bullish trend seems to hold intact. I remain long NZDUSD, targeting a possible run to the recent generational highs around 0.8100; but in the interim we’ll have to deal with the broad consolidation range between 0.7900 and 0.7400.
