Currently Short NZD/USD EUR/USD AUD/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF
In an ever changing world, making profitable carry trades* (definition below) are not as easy as they use to be. Therefore we have created a dynamic carry basket that changes when the monetary policy outlook for a central bank changes or if there is significant event risk ahead. Follow the performance of the DailyFX Dynamic Carry Trade Basket
Changes Since Last Week
Initiated a Long Position in the USD/JPY
Closed the Long Position in the USD/HKD
The Group of Seven most industrialized nations failed to refer the Japanese currency’s persistent weakness as a threat to the global economy and its our belief that the current weakness in the Japanese economy continues to favor several carry trade opportunities. As a result of these two factors, we decided to resume the selling of the Japanese yen against a basket of high yielders. Still, we cant ignore several statements made on the sidelines of the weekend G7 meeting by several European officials that yen weakness was not a one-way bet. We are ready to make additional changes in case we see early signs of carry trade unwind.
Additionally, we continue to watch very carefully the Japanese yen speculative short positioning which remains close to a record high. According to the COT report published this Monday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, speculative shorts currently account for $17.6bn compared with just $4.3bn of longs. The good news is that since last week, net short positions dropped by $4.4bn which should provide enough space for further yen depreciation.
Equity Curve for the DailyFX Dynamic Carry Trade Basket[/B]
What is Carry Trade
All that is needed to understand the carry trade concept is a basic knowledge of foreign exchange and interest rates differentials. Money shifts from around the world in seek of the highest yield and the benefit of trading currencies is that you are dealing with countries that have interest rates, which are charged or received every single day. If you are positioned on the side of positive carry, you have the right to earn that interest, which can be quite lucrative over time. T
Substantial gains made from interest rate differentials provide undeniable evidence that the carry trade strategy has been very successful over the past few years. Still, this strategy involves significant risks and an adequate protective stop is required. We are using a protective stop-loss equivalent to five times the average true range.
Our position size varies according to each currency volatility. Generally, the more volatile the currency is, the fewer lots we trade. For example, let’s assume you have $10,000 and you are trading 10K lots, you decide to limit your risk per trade to 3% or $300 and the 90 days average true range for the EURUSD is 100 pips. In this case, if you go long EUR/USD you could buy 3 lots, since ($10000 * 3%) divided by (0.0100*10K) = 3 lots. In case the final result is not an integer you should always rounded it down to limit your exposure.
Position Size = Current Equity * Percentage Risk per Trade
Three Months Average True Range in U.S. dollars * Lot Size