I know neither is easy, but which do you think is easier based on available information. Is it easier to forecast where the market is going to go in the next several minutes or hours, or is it easier to forecast where the market is going to go in the next several weeks or months?
My guess is that it’s easier to forecast long term market direction. If currency is a measure of a country’s economy, I’d think it would easier to forecast its value based on widely available analysis of that country’s economy. I’m sure even economists contradict each other, but I’d think it’d still be easier to get a generally correct sense for whether an economy was strengthening or weakening (and so goes its currency).
Conversely, short term market direction seems incredibly more fickle and difficult forecast.
Please share your opinion. And, if you have resource recommendations for good long term forecasts of the currency markets, please share them with me.
You are almost compairing apples to oranges. Both are fruit but thats about it. When scalping you are going for 10 pips and out, with day trading you are going for a couple hundred pips. The real answer to your question is, it depends on who you ask. One trader will say scalping is the way to go and some one else will say you can only make money on the swing.
Why not subscribe to the free newsletter put out by Investica which makes 3 and 6 month predictions of where currencies will be at. You could then see how well the experts do at this
i think bazooko hit it on the head there. It all depends on what kind of trader you are. There are many out there making money scalping and just as many making money swinging. It depends on what kind of trader you are. Both markets move differently and if your a scalper you know that market and a swing trader knows theres. Scalpers probobly find it harder to swing trade and swingers may fail at scalping. It wouls all depend on what your looking for in the market.
I’m not entirely sure the original question has actually been specifically addressed. It is the view in academic circles - which means probably among quant traders too - that short-term forecasting is the more accurate. I can understand why traders would think long-term with the idea that in the long run the fundamentals will win out. The strength of the arguement for short-term is that there are fewer things in that timeframe which can change the course of prices along the way.
Thanks, guys. I appreciate your answers. John’s was the most direct answer that I was looking for, but I also really appreciate Tony’s reference to Investica.