What do you guys think will happen in the Brexit vote today? Do you think after the whole “suspending the parliament with the help of the Queen” Biscuit Trump will be able to win overseas? And what does it means to FX trade?
I really don’t know much, only that trading GBP now is bonkers!
I don’t know for sure what’s happening, but I just got some pips out of it.
Bad for brits, good for Jane!
Today, bottom long wick of daily candle show signs of oversold exhaustion. Market may make attempt to test 1.22000 price level. If price goes above 1.22000 , a closed up monthly sept candle may not be impossible. Nevertheless, i believe support level is at 119.000, if price goes below 119.000, it is my own subjective opinion that price will bearish till end of 2020.
With trump needing to win a re-election, dollar can only be bullish in 2020. If USD is still bearish in 2020, trump may not win the re-election. Messy UK government = Weak pound Sterling . Brexit drama is Trump’s best friend at the moment.
The Remoaner Parliament is trying to frustrate Brexit yet again.
If the Remoaner “Speaker” allows it, they will vote to shackle Boris to a “Deal only” withdrawal, which the EU will simply refuse to change anything.
Boris has a number of options - but the way forward is very cloudy indeed. That is why the “Risk” is too high for positivity on GBP.
IF the Vote fails or IF Boris manages to call a General Election, you may see a bounce quite high - but you may have to be nimble to catch it !
There is also opportunity - keep an eye on Eur/Gbp for guidance on market reaction on the swinging news.
Example - yesterday when the news broke re the liklihood of an election that cross rose (Gbp selling) - fell back today as the market realized that it takes 2/3 of mp’s to vote for election - and Labour split on date of same.
The market assumes that Boris will win an election and if that election happens before Oct31 then no deal is more certain.
If the election happens after Oct31 then not just as certain.
Bottom line - no deal = pound selling / extensiion = some pound buying / deal = much pound buying.
Edit - should add that IF second referendum or LibDem win then worth 3000 pips.
The only thing I know is that I’m riding motorbikes today and clearing my head… If only the weather in London was not so grey
Really intrigued to know how many of you are not from the UK but trading the pound… And why?
Gbp buying continuing this morning on the belief that no-deal law will pass today and that an election will not happen until after Oct31 - thus making it impossible for the current Govt to repeal the no-deal law before that date.
If election date is before Oct31 then good chance of pound selling, otherwise reasonable chance of continued pound buying.
