Can you offer some perspective on these results obtained by my son? This seems pretty decent to me, possibly special. Since I have no experience in trading anything, and based on the fact these results were obtained with a demo account, I really have no good way to evaluate this. The attached image shows all the trades he made from April 8 - April 15, 2019. Since making the screen shots that form the basis of this graphic, he deleted the account.
Mate if you had 29 wins out of 30 Iād be disappointed with 40%
I suspect your not exactly letting profits run.
The best traders in the world donāt have that hit rate
Not commenting on the strategy, since thereās not much to analyze. It might also be one of those strategies in which when you lose 2-3 trades in a row you are busted.
I will comment on something else.
Your average position size is about 20 lots, that means $2 million for every trade.
You will hardly find a broker that can execute those sizes without giving you a significant slippage, which is a huge problem for a strategy that is looking for 2-3 pips profit per trade.
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The information I got is 66% win rate is the ceiling. Above that is impossible. And yet, here it is.
He says he does two kinds of trades.
Trading type 1 (lower risk) - āscalpingā
Trading type 2 - āBuy and holdā
In the demo account posted to start this thread, he was trying the ābuy and holdā intermixed with the scalping. That is why both trading patterns are present.
I know this is a lot to ask, but can you say a little bit about the specific differences?
My first thought when seeing a demo account is it will be rigged to produce results more favorable than a live account, in order to entice potential investors to try their skills in the real game. Your comments are the first I have encountered consistent with that suspicion. Until now, I have had explained to me in many ways why my suspicion was false.
Understanding differences between demo accounts and live accounts is critical to my objectives, which are aimed at helping my son avoid problems in live trading.
This obviously is a big deal, thank you for bringing this up. More on this in a moment.
I really appreciate your saying that. Obviously, you have a lot of experience and knowledge.
Thank you also for pointing out the severe limitation on inferences that can be drawn from such a small data set. These are all the records I can produce today. For what itās worth, the background on this runs ten years. I find reason to believe my son is able to produce these results consistently in the demo environment. I also have reason to believe he has obtained similar results with live trading, where he has made recommendations to people he knows who traded on his suggestions and obtained results that in his eyes are the same as in the demo accounts.
Spread and Broker Fill Prices
I just went over your comments with my son. He said your comments made complete sense. He said he normally is shooting at around 20 pips and seems to be taking into account potential slippage when orders being filled. For me, he passed the sanity check you mentioned.
I mentioned the account is closed, to indicate there are no further results where those came from.
My son, age 29, has opened and closed dozens of demo accounts. He uses them for learning and demonstrating his work to the scores of people with whom he discusses forex trading. Typically, for each demo account, he has a narrow purpose that, once fulfilled, no longer requires and account, so he deletes it. The account where I got the trades posted in this thread was one he made for the purpose of showing me how he trades and what his results are like.
My interest began several years ago. My son had a very serious problem with bipolar disorder. I thought he might be destined to become a violent criminal and worried for the safety of everyone with whom he had contact. He is not like that anymore, thanks to medication, his willingness to take it, his belief he needs it, and the Grace of God. He still harbors grandiose beliefs regarding accomplishments from his teenage years that I think must be delusional, but I see no sign of delusion when it comes to trading or anything apart from those odd memories he has from many years ago. Now, he strikes me as a typical member of my extended family, with brains and less than balanced life skills/habits.
In the first few years after the worst of his illness, he continually told me he was āmaking moneyā with demo accounts. It was more than just a manner of expression. He clearly had difficulty distinguishing real vs. demo money. At the same time, he was seeking opportunities to trade other peopleās money, and to hear him tell the tale, he already was a millionaire. I was worried about generally bad consequences of losing other peopleās money including legal jeopardy. It was at that time I first started finding out what I could about his supposed success trading. I came to this forum to ask questions to give me a way of evaluating what I could grasp of what he was doing. I started a thread where I explained the situation and my objectives (Entering the Forex Market with Investors' Money). I expected to develop proof that basically everything he was saying and doing with demo account trading was an illusion he believed. I figured it would be better for him to get the truth from me instead of the cold cruel world or the law. I was not optimistic that I could help him, but I had to do what I could.
I now believe he has developed/discovered a way to win on nearly every trade he makes with sufficient profit to cover broker costs. It is kind of funny, because at the same time, he is oblivious to basic economics. For example, he knows nothing about federal debt and the apparently inevitable collapse of the dollar leading into hyper inflation. He says the pandemic has brought about better trading results for him, but he has no ideas of why that would be the case. He says news of the day never affects his trading.
He tells me he has run simulated trading at firms that have been interested in hiring him and he says he always has obtained results that astonish whoever it is he is talking with.
The results I posted in this thread from his demo account is the only concrete evidence I have regarding his trading. I had access to the demo account during the whole time he ran it. That is how I know the results are real, so far as a demo account is real. I made the screen shots of the transactions and I included every record in the trading history.
As far as evaluating these trades, I recently saw a youtube video by someone who is paid a lot to solve all kinds of problems, where said, "if something happens 32 times in a row, there is a very good chance the the 33rd attempt will happen the same way. In this case, there are 30 trades, 29 winners, with a good explanation for why the fail is different from the others as a result of a non-recurring cause. As for how this might translate to a real account, I have almost nothing to offer as evidence, but there are a lot of things I have seen that make me willing to bet the translation would be successful. I am going to see what I can do to put $1,000 into this and will track the trades as they happen. If the pattern does not follow what I am seeing in the data shown in this thread, i will pull the plug and cut my losses.
Before taking that step, I wanted to find out how foolhardy this endeavor appears to people who are in better position to evaluate it.
He has done trading this way on live accounts. He mentioned it is stressful.
I sent your comments to him. He called immediately to discuss. Overall, he corroborated your comment.
Dear Mr @danallen.
I have read your long reply several times, and I regret that the only word that comes to mind is:
You say this has been going on for 10 years since your son (if he even exists) started discovering his trading āgiftā. You say you have been interested for several years and that your āsonā has already made several other individuals āmillionairesā from his signals and that even some ātrading firmsā have been āastonishedā with his results! (typical scammer claims!)
And yet you apparently still āneedā advice from a site like Babypips, knowing that it is a site aimed strongly at Newbies, and that there is a constant supply of fresh, naive, hopeful, even desperate people seeking to make their fortunes. And many are even ready to give up their life savings to someone who promises them instant wealth - and even though they may even suspect a fraud, they are so desperate that they take the risk - just in case it might be true. (This is even more so in the current global environment, which is unfortunately resulting in scams in many different forms everywhere!). What you are really hoping for by coming here is for more experienced traders to somehow give some third-party credibility to your tale and that your āsonāsā performance is possible and credible (which it is not in the long run)
As I see it, you are presenting them with a son who suffers from a ābipolar disorderā and needs help (appealing to the sympathy angle), but who, as a result, is a rare child prodigy in trading who can āseeā the trades almost without failure (the Holy Grail greed angle). Unfortunately, but very conveniently, he has already destroyed all the evidence except this little scrap of trading history that you now dangle in front of us to āproveā his almost supernatural ātalentsā (the bait).
You suggest that he has already traded for other people and made them rich (knowing this will vibrate the antennas of the naive/desperate here). and then even suggest the amount that people should push his way by suggesting that even you, his own āfatherā is willing to back him with a $1000!
You know you do not need to overtly invite people to send him money because a) it would raise suspicions and b) would be deleted by the moderators anyway. But you know that you do not even need to invite people, they will sniff the bait and be sending you PMs asking, even pleading, for the details where to send the money.
I have already deleted my earlier replies as I do not wish to give any impression that I believe your story and I have flagged your post to the moderators for their attention.
If they are happy with your story then fair enough and they can delete this post. But if you are a scam then please take your business elsewhere.
If I am wrong then I apologise to you and son for my distrust - but you would certainly not be the first, nor the last, to come here as wolves in sheepsās clothingā¦
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Wowā¦great work. Totally passed over my head. Iāll delete my comments also.
Manxx, I am sorry you feel that way. I donāt blame you for being skeptical. I am 100% honest. If you think I am trying to scam people here, thatās great. Only thing is, I am not looking for money from anyone. I also am not trying to persuade anyone of anything. All I am doing is validating my understanding of what I can see in my world.
I am the newbie seeking advice. I have put time into this only a few times, for a few days or hours, spread over those ten years. My son lives on social security disability payments. He has put much of his life into this. He is not asking for advice.
Look I am not lying. The reason I explained my sonās problem was only to explain the overall situation. Not seeking sympathy.
Where did I say he made people rich? I didnāt say that. He helped people make some money and then they withdrew their money and parted ways. Now, actually, I cannot prove he did that, but I believe him, because I have been able to verify enough of what he has told me over the years that I take his word for it. Why people would part ways with him if he was making money for them, I would guess would be for three reasons.
Guess 1: The results were not consistent success
Guess 2: Even if the results had been great on a rate-of-growth basis, the length of time in these partnerships he has had were too short to show astronomical results in gross dollar terms, and the people he dealt with were uncomfortable with him, causing them to not trust him with their money.
Guess 3: In one case where he says he turned $50K into $300k, the āfriendā is a matriarch in an illegal enterprise. He says his services are still sought by that enterprise, but he is staying away for obvious reasons. I believe my son is naive enough to have got involved with that situation without recognizing dangers, but he figured it out, then walked without collecting his share of the earnings. I didnāt know about any of this until after it was done.
My son does not know about my activity here. No one from here can reach him. I am not accepting money from anyone here. I never will. I have received only one PM here and it was not about funding, it was about data. I would not accept funding from anyone here, because what I need from here is perspective. If I accepted funding here, it would put my purpose for being here in jeopardy.
I am glad I read through your note to get to this part. Thank you for including this. You donāt anyone an apology. Your skepticism is appropriate, because what I have written here is nuts. There is no way for me to prove it is true and there is no way for you to know it is true.
I cannot know for sure how I would respond if our situations were reversed here, except I would recognize my story is amazing if true. I would assume the story has corners cut to make it look better than it is, because people do that. There are exceptions and this is one of them.
I am not asking anyone to believe me. What i asked was for help validating my grasp of the wisps of information I have.
I am not here to conduct business.
Thank you for posting such a thoughtful critique. Itās all plausible. If I had to guess which is true, my account, ur account, or any other skeptical way of looking at what I wrote, and if I were anyone but me I would guess yours, or the other skeptical account if it were plausible. it would be an easy choice.
You will find me making mistakes, but you will never find me lying.
Upon further review, this note from you is a big time validation that if my sonās results are consistently tracking like the one set of actual numbers I have, which are the ones I posted, they literally are unbelievably good. That is the problem I hoped I was facing.
Thatās a sad post, @danallen.
You started off in your first version with the typical scammers reply with just a whinge and an insult, but no additional evidence - quote:
Then you realise that it isnāt going to help your own case so ,after no less than 6 edits you end up refining it to:
You came here offering your āchild prodigyā with a Holy Grail type supposed success rate of nearly 100% and offering just a flimsy sheet of āevidenceā like some kind of āDead Sea Scrollsā discovery, where all the rest of the evidence has (in)conveniently been destroyed.
You also chose to come to a site, supposedly looking for advice, that is openly specifically designed for Newbies and is frequented by a continual ārevolving doorā flow of newcomers, who by the own admission know very little about forex and are certainly in no position to comment professionally on your claims. But it is also a site frequented by desperate people willing to take a chance and give their savings to anyone promising the gold at the end of the rainbow.
But, ultimately, like any investment opportunity, it is irrelevant what you or I say. And those who are gullible enough to feed the hordes of scammers in this industry do not listen to commonsense, anyway!
The evidence is in concrete and verifiable results and the answer is simple. Go away and set your son up with an independently verifiable and auditable live account and let him trade it for, say, six months and see if he really does have the gift that no one else to my knowledge has ever achieved.
Oh, and by the way, setting up two accounts and trading them back to back with equal and opposite trades and only publishing the one that wins does not count as evidence.
But, I agree with you on one thing, just throwing insults at other people does not help your cause. It just points the finger even more at you.
Edited to note:
Rest assured, no matter how you contort anything I write, I, in no way or form whatsoever, āvalidateā anything you are claiming. I mean, how could I anyway based on just your story!!!
For the record: On the basis of what you have presented (and not presented), In my opinion you are a scam looking to profit from the gullible here. But, that is just my opinion based on your presentation. It is up to everyone to form their own opinion ( there donāt seem to be many interested anyway!)
As many experienced traders have said in other similar such situations - unless you prove it, it never happened!
I may have missed it, why is your son not here with you, asking the questions, engaging other traders?
That is not why I removed that statement. I removed it because I did not want to say that, especially after the way you ended your note with appropriate disclaimer.
I read through your other note, but I am not going to read the rest of your take down. Nothing you say changes the truth. Your speculation is reasonable, what I would likely believe if the tables were turned, and I am not here to prove anything. Like I said before, my only reason for being here is to learn, to benefit from others willing to discuss what I say at face value. No one likes being taken down the way you are, but it is part of life I can live with. Cheers.
I make a lot of mistakes and edit things a lot all the time. I am not normally responding to a battery of allegations, but even if that were not the case, there is nothing suspicious about working over a response with a lot of changes when defending something like that. What you are doing is looking for anything you can imagine to support your hypothesis. Your hypothesis is false. As a result, even though your speculation is reasonable, itās only speculation and it cannot be all that correct in all its particulars because you are chasing after a false case. Your conviction does not add truth.
Here is a question for you. Can you think of anything I could do to prove the truth of what I have said?
I never even thought of that. That is the kind of thing I came here to find out.
That is why I have not insulted you.
Incorrect. What you wrote provided me with validation of what I perceived. The fact that you had no intention of me finding value in your statement is immaterial.
I am going to say something you will not believe. If Jesus Christ himself came to me and explained I am mistaken, I might believe him. Short of that, I am going to stretch truth slightly and say I am certain you are not all that nice a person. It is one thing to doubt someone making dubious claims. I thought that is what was going on here. But now you have shown more than that. Not being a nice person is another way of saying you are a bad person, causing you to assume bad in others where it does not exist.
Maybe there is a temporary reason you are wound up by what you perceive a phoney person in this forum. That would be a way you could be on ok person with just a minor problem possessing you at the moment. If this attitude of yours is chronic, present in a number of your lifeās scenarios, then you have a problem to either deal with or continue living as a bad person.
I am a bad person too. I wish I had a way to get Schiff, Pelosi, Schumer and at least a few dozen other Lunatics on the Left out of public life and it would not bother me in the least if the means to that end entailed brutal ends to their lives, especially if it occurred in public. It just happens my badness is not part of what I am bringing into this forum, other than mentioning my desire for misfortune for certain of our public servants who lead the destruction of the sovereignty and greatness of the United States. Fauci could be caught in the violence taking them out and that would be ok with me too. If a commando team jumps the US Capitol, takes to dbags out, and escapes in a jet/helicopter/rocket so they cannot be tracked, you have my permission to inquire of my whereabouts at the time of the event. I have other shortcomings, one of which is electing to mention no other of my shortcomings at this time.
For reasons that have nothing to do with me, you have bad thoughts about me. I already asked if there is anything I can do to prove the truth of everything I have said. I doubt you can think of anything. That will prove your point is made, your mind is made up, and further discussion with you will do no more to change your mind or the mind of anyone reading this than Schiff or Trump can change the minds of those who hate them.
If someone else has a question or comment regarding my authenticity,. I will respond. If you can think of something I can do that would make a difference in your intelligence assessment, I will respond to that.
Speaking of intelligence assessment, another thing I see here is an example of how dickheads in the secret security services of our country become so dangerous. I think as there is in you, there is a tendency of people like John Brennan, James Comey, Barack Obama, Eric Holder, etc to become so deeply convinced in the truth of a theory they have made up, they see no need to have real proof to act on their belief. They think they cannot be mistaken. This is a big part of their contribution to ā ā ā ā ā ā ā up the world.
All of us can be mistaken in nearly every area. There is one area where we cannot be mistaken and that is in the principle of truth to ourselves and our Creator, however it is each one of us understands the Creator. "Danny, you know the difference between chicken salad and chicken ā ā ā ā , that is where honesty comes in! You have to be honest with yourself. That is why the slogan says, āTo they own self be true!ā"
I might be wrong about you. You might not be a bad person. I think there is a test you probably cannot complete. Even though completing it does not prove a person is ok, I suspect not being able to complete it means a person is not ok. The test is to share with others something about truth-to-self in a way neutral observers can nod their heads and say or think to themselves, āthat sounds ok.ā I donāt know if there is any merit to that idea. it just came to me. I am suggesting it is something you could try to show you are an ok person.
I am defending myself, that is all I am doing here in this post.
I have told him I am have been checking things out by posting on a forum focused on forex trading. He gets nervous about it, worried that people will find out who he is and he doesnāt like that. I think he dislikes people telling him things when he thinks he knows better than anyone else.