Forex.ee: Daily economic news digest

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Tuesday, July 11th

The EUR/USD pair recovered part of its overnight retreat by the European opening, as the US dollar corrects slightly lower against its main competitors on Tuesday. During Asia, the pair came under renewed selling pressure after FOMC member J.Williams accelerated bullish run of the US dollar against its main competitors, noting that he expects another Fed rate hike this year. Adding to this, increased demand for higher-yielding assets, which was navigating the market during the Asian session, was also negatively influencing the pair. However, as the market passed over Friday’s upbeat NFP print, which increased expectations of another Fed rate hike by the end of this year, the pair managed to regain some pips in early Europe, as investors are still digesting hawkish tone of the ECB President M.Draghi during his recent talks. Today all traders attention will remain focused on the JOLTs Job Openings report, while several Fedspeaks, scheduled on NA session, will also be closely watched for any hints on further Fed steps.

The USD/CAD pair faded its overnight recovery, falling back to the region of its 10-month lows, posted at 1.2860 level after strong data from the Canadian labor market. Seems that US bulls remain unable to perform goodish recovery from its current region, as dust around better-then-expected NFP is slowly settling down, limiting any chances of the pair to recover its positions. Adding to this, recently increased expectations that the BoC might revise its monetary policy to more hawkish are supporting the Loonie, as the Canadian economy continues to show positive results lately and according to the latest remarks of Bank members there is no more need for easing measures. Now traders’ attention shifts towards the bloc of data from both neighbor economies, featuring the JOLTS Job Openings report and several second tier releases, which are scheduled on NA session, while sentiments around oil prices will continue to navigate the pair during European trading hours.

The Kiwi remains the biggest loser across the board on Tuesday, allowing the NZD/USD pair to test its multiweek lows at 0.7225, despite risk-on moods. Seems that NZ bulls barely reacted on better risk-on tone, which was the main driver across the market during the Asian session, as weaker-then-expected data from the NZ economy and underpinned sentiments around the greenback exerted bearish pressure on the pair. However, slightly better sentiments around the oil, seen during Asia, have limited pair’s downside, allowing it to regain some pips in early Europe. Later today, investors will be looking forward for the JOLTS Job Openings data release, while broad market sentiments will continue to drive the pair during this trading session.

The dollar/yen pair remains bullish for the third consecutive session on Tuesday, having refreshed its 4-month tops at 114.48 level earlier this trading session. Seems that yesterday’s poor data from Japanese economy are still weighing on the yen, forcing the pair to stay on a green territory so far this week. Moreover, better sentiments around the US dollar, underpinned by better-then-expected jobs report, and slightly increased risk appetite will continue to cheer up bulls in the session ahead. Today we will have another quiet data session with only the US JOLTs Job Openings report to be released during New York trading hours, so broad market trend will remain as a key driver for the major throughout his Tuesday.

The main events of the day:
US JOLTs Job Openings – 17.00 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1362 R. 1.1436
USDJPY S. 113.63 R. 114.49
GBPUSD S. 1.2827 R. 1.2935
USDCHF S. 0.9608 R. 0.9698
AUDUSD S. 0.7574 R. 0.7630
NZDUSD S. 0.7253 R. 0.7293
USDCAD S. 1.2832 R. 1.2960

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Wednesday, July 12th

The EUR/USD pair corrected slightly lower from its 14-month highs, posted at 1.1489 this morning, on the back of minor profit-taking actions ahead of Fed Chair J.Yellen’s testimony. Yesterday the pair received strong bullish boost, as the US dollar came under pressure amid another US political scandal and slightly dovish Fedspeaks. Now all eyes are directed on Fed Chairwoman J.Yellen’s semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services Committee. It is expected that policymaker will justify another rate hike this year, while any details regarding further actions of the Federal Reserve will be able to shape up pair’s short-term trend. Besides Mrs Yellen’s speech, nothing important is scheduled in data calendar for this Wednesday, so broad market trend will continue to lead the pair throughout European trading hours.

The USD/CAD pair struggles to correct higher after last week’s slump, remaining under pressure so far this week amid US dollar’s weakness and better tone around oil prices. Yesterday the greenback once again came under bearish pressure amid renewed US-Russia political drama, forcing the pair to reverse its yesterday’s gains. Adding to this, solid recovery of oil prices, backed by larger-then-expected drawdown in crude oil stockpiles by API, is also adding some bearish pressure on the pair this week. Today we have data-heavy session ahead, with Fed Chair J.Yellen’s testimony, US Crude Oil Inventories and BoC interest rate decision. It is expected that the Canadian regulator will increase today its cash rate by 25 bps, especially after recent hawkish talks of BoC members, which showed Bank’s readiness to refuse previous monetary policy easing measures, so the market will keep wait-and-see mode ahead of key risky events of this Wednesday.

The USD/JPY pair extends retreat from its multiweek highs, losing more than 100 pips from the level of 114.49, which was marked during previous trading session, as risk-off moods are dominating the market this Wednesday. Yesterday the market reacted aggressively on headlines that current US President D.Trump could receive some support from Russia during his presidential campaign last year, sending the US dollar sharply lower against its major competitors. Furthermore, the US political drama has heavily increased demand for safe-haven assets, sending USD/JPY to refresh its weekly lows at 113.32 spot. Adding to this, fresh wave of risk aversion ahead of the key risky event of this Wednesday is also adding some bullish pressure to the yen. It is expected that the pair will extend its corrective downside move during the European trading session, as risk-off sentiments and weaker USD dollar remain as key determinants for the pair in the middle of this week, while Fed Chair J.Yellen testimony will hog the limelight in the NA session.

The GBP/USD pair broke out of its overnight consolidation to the downside, having refreshed its its 2-week lows at 1.2815 spot, as the market turns cautious ahead of Fed Chairwoman J.Yellen’s testimony that negatively affects the pound. Moreover, yesterday the pair came under strong selling pressure, losing nearly a cent since previous session’s highs, as the market remained disappointed by uninformative talks by BOE policymakers – A.Haldane and B.Broadbent, which failed to provide any details on monetary policy or economic outlook. Now immediate focus shifts towards the UK employment data release, which will bring some fresh trading opportunities to investors in European session. However, increasing cautiousness ahead of Fed Chair J.Yellen’s testimony before the House Financial Services Committee will limit market’s reaction on UK data, as US policymaker’s speech remains the riskiest event of this Wednesday.

The main events of the day:
UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus – 11.30 (GMT +3)
UK Claimant Count Change – 11.30 (GMT +3)
Fed Chair J.Yellen Testimony – 17.00 (GMT +3)
BoC Interest Rate Decision – 17.00 (GMT +3)
US Crude Oil Inventories – 17.30 (GMT +3)
BoC Governor S.Poloz Speech – 18.15 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1345 R. 1.1539
USDJPY S. 113.27 R. 114.83
GBPUSD S. 1.2771 R. 1.2965
USDCHF S. 0.9580 R. 0.9724
AUDUSD S. 0.7588 R. 0.7666
NZDUSD S. 0.7157 R. 0.7311
USDCAD S. 1.2855 R. 1.2973

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Friday, July 14th

The EUR/USD pair remains largely flat-lined near the level of 1.14 on the final day of this week, barely benefiting from shrinking expectations of Fed aggressive tightening policy. Seems that EUR bulls also lack of any momentum today, as recent dovish comments of ECB member I.Rimsevics, talking about weaker inflation and necessity to run the QE program, are weighing the pair somewhat this Friday. On the other hand, shrinking risk appetite ahead of US fundamentals is lending some support to the euro, forcing the pair to step away from its overnights lows. Now all eyes remain glued to the US economic inflation data, which will bring some hints regarding further divergence between Fed and ECB political courses, thereby shaping up pair’s short-term trajectory. Besides inflation prints, the US will also release retail sales data, while Eurozone trade balance will keep investors busy during European trading hours.

The GBP/USD pair is navigating to the north so far this session, as the US dollar remains broadly subdued on mixed remarks of Fed Chair J.Yellen. The greenback continues to stay under pressure of recent uninformative talks of the Fed head policymaker, who stated that the regulator would enter wait-and-see mode before adjusting its monetary policy. However, talks of Mrs. J.Yellen did not close the door for another rate increase in upcoming months what makes possible for the dollar to correct its position in near-term projection. On the other side, seems that the market has passed over recent concerns over the Brexit deal, as the UK Government finally conceded that it will have to pay EU exit bill. Looking ahead, today the UK docked once again will leave the pair at the mercy of global market trend during European trades, while the bloc of important US data will take center stage in the NA session, as it will be able to shape up pair’s further direction in short-term projection.

The dollar/yen pair is retreating from its overnight highs, marked at 113.58, despite better risk tone, seen during Asia. General market moods regarding recent Fed Chair J.Yellen’s testimony remains broadly disappointed, as head of the US regulator failed to provide any information regarding further Fed monetary policy steps, while noting that further rate increase would be appropriate if inflation shows better growth results. The market considered this comments as dovish, dumping expectations of another rate hike by the end of this year that in turn weighed the greenback across the board. In the day ahead, it is expected that the pair will extend its bearish bias during European trading session, as investors turn cautious ahead of the US CPI report, which will be especially important in light of recent Mrs. J.Yellen’s remarks.

The AUD/USD pair extends its bullish rally, refreshing today this year highs at 0.7759 spot on the back of positive risk-on tone. Easing concerns of an economic slowdown in China are positively influencing the risk-on environment and as a result boosting demand for the Aussie. Adding to this, better tone on the commodity market and broad weakness of the US dollar are also collaborating with pair’s recent bullish run. However, further upside of the pair looks fragile on the back of shrinking risk appetite, as the market turns cautious ahead of this Friday’s major data reports. Today the US economy will release a slew of important macroeconomic reports, featuring the US inflation and retail sales, which will hog the limelight in the NA session.

The main events of the day:
US Core CPI – 15.30 (GMT +3)
US Core Retail Sales – 15.30 (GMT +3)
US Retail Sales – 15.30 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1322 R. 1.1492
USDJPY S. 112.56 R. 113.88
GBPUSD S. 1.2842 R. 1.3002
USDCHF S. 0.9586 R. 0.9728
AUDUSD S. 0.7647 R. 0.7779
NZDUSD S. 0.7189 R. 0.7433
USDCAD S. 1.2688 R. 1.2788

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Tuesday, July 18th

The EUR/USD pair extends its bullish run for the third session in a row, refreshing its 14-month highs at 1.1538 spot, as the US president is losing the trust of his voters. The US dollar came under strong selling pressure against its major competitors in Asia, as D.Trump’s Healthcare bill failed to pass through Senate vote yet again. This streak of fails has increased concerns over D.Trump’s ability to deliver on the pre-election campaign promises, especially regarding his much-awaited tax reforms. However, seems that bulls took a breather in European morning, allowing the pair to correct slightly lower, as traders are repositioning their bets ahead of the bloc of economic reports by ZEW. Besides ZEW surveys, today the US economy will release the bloc of secondary economic reports, however, it is expected that the reaction of the market will be limited, so the US dollar price actions will continue to navigate the pair during the NA session.

The AUD/USD pair is showing huge volatility on Tuesday, having pierced the level of 0.7900, which was last seen two years ago, on the back of another D.Trump administration’s failure. Today it is became known that the US Senate once again rejected Obamacare replacement that in turn drops a shadow on US president’s ability to fulfill his promises. Adding to this, hawkish RBA Meeting Minutes also added some fuel to Aussie’s rally, as AUS policymakers consider that the Australian economy is showing good results as of late, thus increasing market’s expectations that the RBA could increase its interest rate soon. This recent events have boosted the Aussie across the board, sending the major to leap more than a cent higher during the Asian trading session. In the day ahead, the US economy will bring only secondary data reports, so the USD dynamics and hawkish RBA minutes will continue to underpin the sentiment around the pair during this session.

The NZD/USD pair is trading on a firm note on Tuesday, keeping its positions near the mid-point of 0.73 level, after solid comeback, backed by a slump of the US dollar across the board. Earlier this session, Kiwi caught fresh offers, losing more than 60 pips against its US competitor, after New Zealand inflation figures missed market’s estimates, dragging the NZD/USD to the region of 0.7260. However, the pair managed to reverse its downside spike and refresh its daily tops, as recent news that the US Senate rejected Trump’s health care bill weighed the greenback against its major competitors. Today the US docket will continue to keep silence for the second session in a row, so broad US dollar weakness will remain as an exclusive driver for the pair throughout this trading session.

The GBP/USD pair was navigating in the north direction during the Asian trading session, getting closer to the level of 1.3100, as broad weakness of the US dollar is navigating the market on Tuesday. However, seems that the market turned cautious at the start of the European trading session, forcing the pair to stall its upside rally ahead of the UK CPI release, which in turn could hint on monetary policy divergence between the Fed and BOE. These indicators could be especially important in light of recent dovish Fed Chair J.Yellen’s testimony and hawkish talks of BoE MPC members. Besides UK inflation reports, investors will also pay attention to comments of BoE Governor Mark Carney, who will deliver his speech at the beginning of the New York trades, while the US calendar will remain data on Tuesday, so broad weakness of the dollar and UK fundamentals will be navigating the pair during NA session.

The main events of the day:
UK CPI – 11.30 (GMT +3)
German ZEW Economic Sentiment – 12.00 (GMT +3)
BoE Governor M.Carney’s speech – 16.30 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1414 R. 1.1518
USDJPY S. 112.07 R. 113.13
GBPUSD S. 1.3004 R. 1.3136
USDCHF S. 0.9561 R. 0.9689
AUDUSD S. 0.7763 R. 0.7855
NZDUSD S. 0.7279 R. 0.7379
USDCAD S. 1.2603 R. 1.2745

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Wednesday, July 19th

The EUR/USD pair is correcting lower today from its 14-month highs, marked at 1.1583 level in the previous trading session. Seems that the dust around yesterday’s rejection of Trump’s Healthcare bill by the Senate has settled down, allowing the US dollar to correct higher against its major peers that in turn is weighing on the pair this Wednesday. However, further decline of the pair seems fragile, as the market turns cautious ahead of tomorrow’s ECB meeting. It is expected that the regulator will leave its interest rate at the same level, while any announcements regarding QE program will have significant influence on the pair. In the day ahead, the US will release fundamental reports from the housing market in the NA session, which will be able to bring some impetus to the pair, while the EU docket will remain silent today, allowing the US dollar to navigate the pair during European trading hours.

The USD/JPY pair is extending its previous session’s recovery, as the US dollar corrects higher amid profit-taking actions after its yesterday’s sharp decline across the market. The US dollar has finally stalled its broad sell-off, triggered by failure of the D.Trump’s Healthcare bill to pass through Senate vote, and now is correcting higher against its main competitors, that remains one of the main drivers for the pair this Wednesday. Adding to this, slightly improved risk appetite is also weighing on the Japanese yen’s safe-haven status so far this session. On the other hand, lack of any fresh directional impetus is forcing the pair to keep its positions near the level of 112, as traders are turning cautious ahead of the next risky event – BoJ interest rate decision, which is scheduled on the next Asian session. Besides BoJ monetary policy decision, traders will also look forward for data from the US housing market, which will be able to bring fresh trading opportunities during the NA session.

The AUD/USD pair extends its bullish rally above the level of 0.7900, refreshing its 26-month highs, barely reacting on the US dollar’s correction. Pair’s upside could be mainly attributed to yesterday’s hawkish RBA meeting minutes, which continue to provide support to the Australian dollar. Moreover, positive risk-on environment, which was prevailing on the market throughout the Asian trading session, also collaborates with pair’s bullish tone in the middle of this week. Next of note for the pair remains the US housing market data, which will provide some short-term trading impetus in the NA session, while Australian jobs data will take center stage during the next Asian session on Thursday.

The GBP/USD pair has stalled its overnights retreat, meeting support in the region of 1.3025-30, as traders have passed over yesterday’s weak results of the UK economy and now are awaiting for a fresh directional impetus from the upcoming US macro data. On Tuesday, the pair came under strong selling pressure, having lost nearly a cent since yesterday’s highs, after UK CPI numbers missed market’s expectations. Adding to this, following uninformative speech of the BoE Governor Mark Carny, during which head of the regulator stated that the picture on the UK inflation remains the same, also didn’t provide any relief to the pound. On the other hand, broad weakness of the US dollar, backed by Trump’s Healthcare bill failure, allowed the pair to step away from its last session lows. Looking ahead, today investors will focus their attention on data from the US housing market, while the UK will continue to keep silence on Tuesday, so the USD dynamics will remain as a key determinant for the pair during the European trading session.

The main events of the day:
US Building Permits – 15.30 (GMT +3)
US Crude Oil Inventories – 17.30 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1424 R. 1.1648
USDJPY S. 111.14 R. 113.12
GBPUSD S. 1.2935 R. 1.3177
USDCHF S. 0.9458 R. 0.9680
AUDUSD S. 0.7725 R. 0.8037
NZDUSD S. 0.7216 R. 0.7438
USDCAD S. 1.2515 R. 1.2757

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Friday, July 21st

The EUR/USD pair broke out of its brief consolidation phase, having refreshed its nearly 2-year highs at 1.1677 in Asia, as investors continue to digest recent talks of ECB President M.Draghi. Yesterday the pair performed aggressive bullish rally, despite neutral tone of Mr.Draghi during ECB press conference, talking about weaker inflation and possible extension of the QE program. However, Chief of the ECB confirmed readiness of the regulator to tackle the issue of the QE program in September. In addition, traders took positively Mr.Draghi’s comments on confident recovery of Eurozone’s economy, noting that recent weakness in inflation considered by the ECB as temporary. Meanwhile, the dollar has its own problems amid a new wave of scandals around possible US president D.Trump business deals with Russia. Later today, in absence of fresh fundamentals from both sides the pair will continue tracing US dollar’s price actions and global market trend to determine its further development course.

The AUD/USD pair came under intense selling pressure on the last trading day of this week, having refreshed its 4-day lows at 0.7875 level after dovish talks of the RBA member. In Asia Deputy Governor of the RBA G.Debelle delivered dovish comments, citing that recent neutral outcome of the RBA meeting didn’t indicate to upcoming RBA’s policy tightening steps. Also Mr. Debelle stated that current cash rate is appropriate for policy objectives and it shouldn’t necessarily increase along with other rates abroad. However, the pair managed to recover some pips and climb back above the level of 0.7900, as the greenback continues to remain offered today on the back of another wave of US political tensions. Today nothing much is scheduled in the economic calendar for this Friday, so the pair will continue to follow global market trend, while dovish comments of the RBA member will continue to influence the Aussie for a while.

The NZD/USD pair continues to navigate in the north direction for the fourth consecutive session, refreshing its 10-month highs at 0.7434 level in response to hawkish remarks of New Zealand’s Finance Minister S.Joyce. During the Asian trading session the pair broke out of its consolidation phase to the upside, despite prevailing risk-off sentiments, as NZ FinMin S.Joyce lent strong support on the Kiwi, saying that current level of the NZD reflects a strong economy. Adding to this, broad weakness of the US currency and positive data from the NZ economy are also collaborating with pair’s bullish run on Friday. Looking ahead, today we will have relatively quiet data session, so broad market trend, driven by softness of the greenback, will remain as a key determinant for the pair throughout this trading session.

The GBP/USD pair is trading on a firm note at the end of this week, remaining within striking distance of its daily highs, located in the area of 1.30, as the US dollar fails to recover after yesterday’s slump. However, further upside of the pair seems fragile, as uncertainty over the Brexit deal is still weighing the pound somewhat. After yesterday’s meeting of chief negotiators from the UK and EU, issues of EU citizens’ rights and the amount of the UK divorce bill continue to remain key topics for discussion. Adding to this, the pair stalled overnight recovery from its weekly lows, marked yesterday at 1.2933, as broad demand for safety is limiting pound’s possible gains. In the day ahead, the pair will continue to navigate, following broad market trend, as both economies will keep silence at the end of this trading week.

The main events of the day:
Canadian Core CPI – 15.30 (GMT +3)
Canadian Core Retail Sales – 15.30 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1411 R. 1.1767
USDJPY S. 110.99 R. 112.87
GBPUSD S. 1.2879 R. 1.3079
USDCHF S. 0.9415 R. 0.9667
AUDUSD S. 0.7856 R. 0.8038
NZDUSD S. 0.7301 R. 0.7463
USDCAD S. 1.2491 R. 1.2691

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Monday, August 7th

Today the EUR/USD pair managed to recover part of its positions, as US bulls have took a breather, allowing investors to lock in some profits after sharp drawdown, led by better-than-expected NFP results. However, the pair met strong resistance at its psychological level of 1.1800, as market participants seem still digesting Friday’s solid jobs data from the US. Positive data from the NFP report led to stronger confidence in the US economy and increased odds for a Fed rate hike in December. As a result, the divergence factor between Fed’s monetary policy and the ECB has again come into play, thereby weighing the pair. Nothing important is scheduled in data calendar for today, so broad market trend will remain as an exclusive determinant for the pair at the beginning of this working week.

The GBP/USD pair is following market sentiments and is recovering the smile this Monday after a hard week for the pound. The pair lost more than two figures since Thursday’s tops, as the dovish outcome of the BoE meeting on Thursday and solid numbers of Friday’s NFP report heavily weighed on the pair. Moreover, these recent events boosted talks over divergence between monetary policies of the Fed and BoE that also collaborates with pair’s recent weakness. With only a few secondary reports from the UK and several Fedspeaks, which are expected later ahead, the pair will continue to follow USD dynamics, while any headlines regarding Brexit developments will be able to bring some impetus to the pair.

The AUD/USD pair breaks a streak of four consecutive downside sessions from the region of its 2-year highs and remains better bid at the start of this trading week. Today the pair attempts to correct higher after excellent data from the US labor market, which forced the major to lose almost a cent and refresh its nearly 2-week lows at 0.7891 spot on Friday. However, further correction appears fragile, as cautious stance of the CB of Australia, reflected in the Bank’s Statement of Monetary Policy, eased market’s expectations on RBA’s possible rate increase, which in turn is lending negative pressure on the Aussie lately. Looking ahead, economic calendar of the US will keep silence at the first working day of this week, so broad market trend and risk-friendly environment will continue to determine pair’s further course.

Bitcoin continues to surprise the market, having hit its record highs at 3326.20 level on Saturday, while its market capitalization stepped over 50 billion USD. Seems that investors have digested recent news that the cryptocurrency split into two parts, creating new asset called “bitcoin cash”, after the fork was confirmed. However, the new cryptocurrency was not so successful as her “Older brother”, as, according to the latest developments, customers need to wait until Jan 2018 to access their new coins. It is expected that further developments surrounding the cryptocurrency will continue to navigate Bitcoin. Currently Bitcoin is trading in the region of 3230, which is more than 20% higher than last week lows.

The main events of the day:
None

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1635 R.1.1957
USDJPY S. 109.31 R.111.73
GBPUSD S. 1.2932 R.1.3214
USDCHF S. 0.9626 R.0.9814
AUDUSD S. 0.7845 R.0.8021
NZDUSD S. 0.7357 R. 0.7481
USDCAD S. 1.2504 R. 1.2738

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Tuesday, August 8th

The EUR/USD pair managed to retake its psychological level of 1.1800 in Asian trading session, extending its recovery after major pullback, seen last Friday. By the moment of writing, the pair has eased part of its previous gains from its daily tops, marked at 1.1824, however, remaining in positive mood, as renewed sell-off around the dollar, triggered by yesterday’s comments of Fed N.Kashkari and J.Bullard, is navigating the market today. Both speakers sounded not so optimistic regarding further economic growth pace and inflation that forced the market to reconsider its expectations of possible Fed rate hike in December. Adding to this, the euro maintains a positive mood lately amid more hawkish sentiment of the ECB and improved fundamentals of the Eurozone. Now all traders’ attention shifts towards JOLTs Job Openings report, while EU economic calendar won’t bring any relevant releases today, leaving the pair at the mercy of broad market sentiments during European trading hours.

The GBP/USD pair failed to sustain its recovery mode in early Europe and slipped back to the region of 1.3035 after meeting resistance near the level of 1.3050, as fresh wave of risk aversions approached the market in Asia. Moreover, jitters surrounding Brexit negotiations amid a drop in markets’ confidence of PM T.May’s ability to handle Brexit talks also negatively influence the pound lately. On the other hand, further downside looks unlikely, as the US dollar remains on offers this Tuesday, following dovish remarks of FOMC members. Nothing much is scheduled in data calendar for the pair today, so broad market trend and risk sentiments will continue to navigate the major ahead in the session.

Seems that pressure on the US dollar resumed during the last trading session and the USD/JPY pair has retreated to the region of its 2-day lows, located near 110.50 level. Yesterday the pair failed to extend its recovery and came under bearish pressure after meeting resistance near the level of 111.00, as markets have already passed over recent positive data from the US labor market, while dovish yesterday’s talks of Fed members N.Kashkari and J.Bullard added some pressure on the greenback across the board. Adding to this, broad risk-off sentiments, fueled by poor Chinese trade data, have also provided support to safe-haven assets, such as the yen. Today we will have another quiet data session, so USD price dynamics will remain as a key driver for the pair throughout this Tuesday.

Today the USD/CAD pair is consolidating yesterday’s retreat from the area of 3-week highs, wobbling within the range of 20 pips just above 1.2650 area. Yesterday the pair continued to recover from the area of 2-year lows, expanding its winning streak for the sixth consecutive session, as the US dollar was still benefiting from the solid Friday’s NFP report, while weaker sentiments around oil prices were negatively influencing the Loonie. However, renewed pressure on the US dollar, triggered by dovish talks of FOMC members N.Kashkari and J.Bullard, is forcing the market to pay no attention to slight drop in oil prices on Tuesday. Looking ahead, today nothing much is scheduled in data calendar for the pair, except JOLTs Job Openings and Canadian Housing Starts, which will be released during NA session, so USD price dynamics expected to remain as a key determinant for the pair throughout this trading session.

The main events of the day:
US JOLTs Job Openings – 17.00 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1745 R. 1.1839
USDJPY S. 110.48 R. 111.04
GBPUSD S. 1.2989 R. 1.3079
USDCHF S. 0.9694 R. 0.9764
AUDUSD S. 0.7871 R. 0.7969
NZDUSD S. 0.7306 R. 0.7444
USDCAD S. 1.2587 R. 1.2759

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Wednesday, August 9th

The EUR/USD pair is following global market trend and corrected higher by the European opening after sharp drop, backed by positive data from the US labor market, as strong risk-off sentiments are supporting the Euro somewhat this Wednesday. Seems that the major has recovered a smile on the back of another spike of political tensions between the US and North Korea, triggered by headlines that North Korea’s military is examining the operational plan to strike areas around the US territory of Guam with ballistic missiles. The North Korea’s statement was published after US President D.Trump warned NK that if it continues to threaten the US, it would “face fire and fury like the world has never seen.” However, USD remains supported by upbeat US JOLTs job openings data, which could cap the renewed upside of the pair. Looking ahead, today the USD price dynamics will remain as a key determinant for the major amid lack of fundamental drivers from both calendars.

The NZD/USD pair remains highly offered in the middle of this week, extending its losing streak for the fourth consecutive session. Currently the pair is staying within striking distance of its 3-week lows, posted earlier in the region of 0.7300, on the back of strong risk aversion, which was dominating the market in Asia. The Kiwi received strong bearish impetus today after China released red inflation numbers that triggered flight to safety. Adding to this, slight weakness of oil prices and softer sentiments on the commodity market are also collaborating with downside traction of the pair this Wednesday. It is expected that strong risk-off moods will continue to navigate the market during European trading session amid empty data calendar from the US and fresh geopolitical tensions, erupted between the US and North Korea. Now all market’s attention remains glued to the next important event for the pair - RBNZ policy decision, which will be announced tomorrow in early Asia.

The dollar/yen pair extends its downside trend for the second session in a row, having refreshed its nearly 2-month lows below its psychological resistance of 110.00 earlier this session. Increased geopolitical tensions between N. Korea and US have significantly improved demand for safe-haven assets, such as the Japanese yen. The market reacted sharply on North Korea’s statement that it is considering plans for a missile strike on the US Pacific territory after US president D.Trump warned N.Korea that any threat to the US would be met with “fire and fury”. However, the pair managed to bounce off its recent lows and regain the level of 110.00 as the greenback is still benefiting from yesterday’s positive results from the US labor market. Today we will have another quiet data session, so the pair will continue to follow broad market risk sentiments throughout this trading session.

The GBP/USD pair corrects higher today after 4-day losing streak, having bounced off its 2-week lows, posted at 1.2953. However, further upside seems unlikely, as strong risk-off sentiments, triggered by geopolitical tensions stemming from the Korean Peninsula, are weighing the pound this Wednesday. Adding to this, seems that US bulls are still benefiting from the US JOLTs jobs report that is also limiting pair’s correction lately. Meanwhile, looming concerns over Brexit negotiations, coupled with expectations of the US CPI report, which is scheduled on this Friday will keep risk-off sentiments in trend. On the data front, today both calendars won’t bring any relevant data, leaving the major at the mercy of global market moods during this trading session.

The main events of the day:
US Crude Oil Inventories – 15.30 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1653 R. 1.1873
USDJPY S. 109.88 R. 111.04
GBPUSD S. 1.2898 R. 1.3100
USDCHF S. 0.9677 R. 0.9805
AUDUSD S. 0.7858 R. 0.7970
NZDUSD S. 0.7287 R. 0.7389
USDCAD S. 1.2619 R. 1.2729

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Thursday, August 10th

The EUR/USD pair has lost its bid tone and currently is navigating to the south, extending its retreat below the level of 1.1750, as the US dollar is recovering ground across the market. Adding to this seems that the spike of geopolitical tensions between the US and North Korea has faded away, providing no support to the common currency this Thursday. However, it is expected that the pair won’t show any sharp moves in the day ahead, as investors are awaiting for the main event of this week – Friday’s US inflation prints, bringing some cautiousness across the market, as better-than-expected results will be able to hint on further US monetary policy tightening measures. On the data front, the EU calendar will remain silent today, leaving the pair at the mercy of the USD dynamics until the releases of the US PPI and jobless claims data, which will be released in the NA session.

The NZD/USD pair remains the main mover of this Thursday, having refreshed its monthly lows at 0.7262 spot, following recent major event. Earlier this session the RBNZ left its interest rate unchanged at the level of 1.75% and also released accompanying neutral monetary policy statement, which reiterated that the monetary policy of the Bank will remain accommodative for a considerable period, that was perceived by the market as positive outcome of Bank’s meeting, thus underpinning bid tone around the pair. However, following dovish talks of RBNZ Governor G.Wheeler regarding weaker inflation and stronger NZ dollar forced the pair to change its direction and to refresh its morning lows. Adding to this, recent uptick in the US dollar demand also added some bearish impetus to the pair this Thursday. As RBNZ decision has passed over, investors have shifted their attention to the bloc of the US economic data, featuring PPI print and weekly jobless claims, which will be able to bring fresh impetus to the pair during the NA session.

The USD/JPY pair has recovered its positive tone, posting minor gains this morning, after yesterday’s pullback to its 2-month lows. Seems that stability is returning to the market, setting risk appetite back to normal, after yesterday’s turbulence, backed by fresh spike of geopolitical tensions between the US and North Korea, thus leaving safe-haven assets with no support. Adding to this, the bloc of mixed Japanese data also added some bullish pressure to the pair during the Asian session. However, it is expected that slight cautiousness might appear later in the day, which will limit pair’s recovery, as the market is awaiting for Friday’s crucial data from the US economy. Later in the NA session, the US economy will release set of macroeconomic data, including PPI and several second tier reports, which will hog the limelight during New York trading hours.

The GBP/USD pair has recovered its offered tone this Thursday, having refreshed its daily lows in the region of 1.2970. The pound maintains a clear bearish bias and remains near the lower border of the recent range after several unsuccessful attempts to recover, as looming concerns over Brexit negotiations are still pressuring on the UK currency. On the other hand, the dollar is showing moderate recovery against its main competitors that additionally weights the pair today. Meanwhile, the market keeps cautious stance this morning ahead of crucial data from the UK economy, featuring Manufacturing Production and Trade Balance figures, which will be able to set up next leg for directional move of the pair, forcing investors to refrain of opening any important directional bets. Besides the UK data, the US docket will also provide important macroeconomic reports, keeping investors busy during NA session.

The main events of the day:
UK Manufacturing Production – 11.30 (GMT +3)
US PPI – 15.30 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1662 R. 1.1810
USDJPY S. 109.18 R. 110.78
GBPUSD S. 1.2938 R. 1.3058
USDCHF S. 0.9530 R. 0.9796
AUDUSD S. 0.7826 R. 0.7944
NZDUSD S. 0.7295 R. 0.7365
USDCAD S. 1.2630 R. 1.2754

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Friday, August 11th

The EUR/USD pair came out of its brief consolidation phase to the downside, as investors are taking some profits off the table after yesterday’s upsurge, backed by poor US PPI report and dovish speech of FOMC member B.Dudly, talking about weaker inflation rate. The selling pressure, however, seems to have eased for the time being, as traders currently are preparing for the much-awaited US CPI report, due for release later during the NA session. This inflation data will be one of the key factors of the Fed’s next monetary policy action and hence, should provide a fresh directional impetus to the major currency pair. Besides the US crucial data, today we won’t see any relevant data reports, as the EU docket won’t be able to surprise the market during European trading hours, leaving the pair at the mercy of global market trend until the major event.

The AUD/USD pair was the weakest asset of the Asian session, having refreshed its multiweek lows at 0.7839 level, as several factors were weighing the Aussie. Earlier this session the pair came under strong selling pressure after RBA Governor P.Lowe delivered his speech, which was perceived by the market as more dovish. Mr. Lowe stated that stronger AUD prevents full employment in the labor market, which remains one of the key risks to the Australian economy, while current cash rate is supporting jobs growth. Moreover, strong risk aversions were ruling on the market during the Asian session that additionally weighed higher-yielding assets, such as the Aussie. However, the pair managed to recover some ground in early Europe, as investors prefer to lock in some profits ahead of the key event of this Friday. Today the US economy will release much-awaited inflation readings, which will hog the limelight during the NA session, but until then the global market trend will continue to determine pair’s direction.

Seems that the USD/JPY pair lost its offered tone by the European opening, as investors are now bracing for the much-awaited US data. However, the pair was trading with a strong negative bias during the Asian session, having refreshed its 2-month lows at 108.91 level, on the back of ongoing war of words between the US and N. Korea, which has boosted flight to safety. This time the government of North Korea made harsh statement, saying that the US will suffer “shameful defeat” and promised to “mercilessly wipe out the provocateurs”. For the events ahead for the rest of the week, we have crucial US CPI report, which will have strong impact on the pair, as it will indicate a possible next Fed rate move in December 2017.

The GBP/USD pair failed to recover some ground during the Asian trading session, having faced resistance at it psychological level of 1.3000. The pair remains heavy at the end of this week, as broad risk-off sentiments, fueled by another spike of tensions between the US and North Korea, are weighing the pound lately. However, it is expected that the pair will remain near the lower border of the recent range, as investors refrain from placing any important directional bets ahead of crucial US inflation figures. Unlike to the US docket, the UK data calendar will remain broadly silent at the end of this week, so the pair’s price action during European trading hours will be determined by USD-dynamics and headlines, coming from the Korean peninsula.

The main events of the day:
US Core CPI – 15.30 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1671 R. 1.1835
USDJPY S. 108.48 R. 110.54
GBPUSD S. 1.2915 R. 1.3045
USDCHF S. 0.9582 R. 0.9696
AUDUSD S. 0.7836 R. 0.7930
NZDUSD S. 0.7181 R. 0.7419
USDCAD S. 1.2647 R. 1.2793

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Tuesday, August 15th

The EUR/USD pair accelerated its downside traction this morning after Germany released weaker-than-expected preliminary GDP data, however, meeting resistance near the level of 1.1700. Moreover, it is expected that the major currency pair will keep navigating to the south on Tuesday, as the US dollar extends its recovery after recent drop, backed by weak US inflation data. Meanwhile, seems that the dust around geopolitical tensions between the US and North Korea settled down after recent headlines, saying that North Korea decided not to launch ballistic missiles on Guam, leaving the euro without any support on Tuesday. On the data front, besides German fundamental reports nothing else is left in the EU economic docket, so global market trend will continue to navigate throughout the European trading session, while the US economy will release retail sales data, which will be able to determine next short-term trajectory for the pair during New York trades.

The AUD/USD pair failed to extend its recovery trend after yesterday’s drawdown, as RBA minutes was unable to surprise the market in Asia. The pair lost its positive traction after the release of RBA minutes, which reiterated concerns over higher Aussie and potential economic slowdown if AUD extends the rally. Adding to this, ongoing recovery of the greenback across the board also adds some bearish pressure on the pair lately. However, any sharp downside moves of the major seem unlikely, as easing US-North Korea tensions are boosting risk-on sentiments, which are positively affecting the pair. Looking ahead, it is expected that risk sentiments will remain the main theme of this day, while bloc of the US data will bring some trading opportunities in the NA trading session.

The dollar/yen pair extends its bullish rally on Tuesday, having refreshed its weekly highs at 110.45 level, as improved risk appetite remains the key determinant for the pair lately. Geopolitical tensions surrounding the US and North Korea continue to cool off, as, according to the latest headlines, North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un decided to cancel missile attack on Guam. However, Mr. Kim warned the US, that he could easily change his mind if the US continue to threaten N.Korea. Moreover, renewed positive tone of the US dollar after last week’s disappointing US inflation data is also collaborating with pair’s upside rally. Now all traders’ attention shifts toward the bloc of US economic releases, including retail sales data, which will be able to bring some impetus for the pair during the NA session, while risk-on trend will continue to navigate the pair throughout European trades.

The GBP/USD pair was oscillating in narrow range of 20 pips in Asia, ahead of key UK data releases. The pair was struggling to break out of its corridor this Tuesday, as several factors were pressuring the pair from both sides, while investors were gearing up for UK inflation figures. The pair receives bearish pressure lately, as the US dollar recovers across the board after Friday’s weak inflation data. On the other hand, renewed demand for higher-yielding assets, backed by easing tensions between the US and North Korea, is lending support to the pound on Tuesday. Today we will have eventful session ahead, as both calendar will keep investors busy during this Tuesday with crucial UK inflation data and bloc of major US fundamentals.

The main events of the day:
UK CPI – 11.30 (GMT +3)
US Retail Sales – 15.30 (GMT +3)
US Core Retail Sales – 15.30 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1727 R. 1.1865
USDJPY S. 108.71 R. 110.25
GBPUSD S. 1.2915 R. 1.3045
USDCHF S. 0.9564 R. 0.9810
AUDUSD S. 0.7797 R. 0.7945
NZDUSD S. 0.7248 R. 0.7348
USDCAD S. 1.2636 R. 1.2774

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Thursday, August 17th

The EUR/USD pair lost its positive mood in the European morning, stepping away from vicinity of 1.1800, as investors are locking in some profits after sharp yesterday’s rally and also ahead of another key event, scheduled for this Thursday. Yesterday the pair bounced off its nearly 3-week lows, marked on the level of 1.1682, after non-favorable FOMC minutes once again showed concerns of the regulator regarding slow US inflation developments, thereby lowering market’s projections on Fed rate hike in upcoming months. Now all investors’ attention shifts toward ECB protocols, which will be able to boost speculations on divergence between the Fed and ECB. Besides ECB minutes, the Eurozone CPI report and US dataflow will also have some impact on the pair during this trading session.

The GBP/USD pair remains better bid for the second consecutive session, now wobbling in the region of 1.2900. Recent gains of the pair can be majorly attributed to sharp sell-off of the greenback on the back of unsurprising FOMC minutes, which once again reiterated concerns of the regulator over weaker inflation growth pace, thereby negatively affecting odds of Fed rate increase at the end of this year. Adding to this, auspicious data from the UK labor market, combined with a drop in the US housing sector are also supporting the pair, allowing it to extend recovery trend on Thursday. Another eventful session has approached the market, as both calendars contain fundamental reports, which will keep investors busy throughout this session, while several Fedspeaks will be able to provide another feedback on the US economy in American afternoon.

The AUD/USD pair extends its northern rally, having refreshed its weekly highs at 0.7950, following the main theme of this Thursday – sell-off of the US dollar. The pair caught fresh wave of bids after much awaited FOMC meeting minutes failed to provide anything new to the market, while spreading concerns over softer US inflation growth pace, forcing the market to readjust its expectations on Fed rate hike by the end of this year. However, mixed data from the Australian labor market, which showed an unexpected drop in full time jobs in July, has stalled pair’s bullish rally, locking its gains near the level of its recent highs. Looking ahead, it is expected that USD weakness will continue to remain as a main driver for the pair, while the US economic calendar, that contains Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, several secondary tier reports and Fedspeaks, will be able to determine pair’s direction later in the NA session.

The yen staged a solid comeback yesterday against its American peer after dovish FOMC meeting minutes, forcing the USD/JPY pair to perform 80 pips downside rally. Seems that FOMC participants still haven’t decided, whether a rate hike is appropriate this year or not, as inflation indicators remain under its target level, that in turn negatively affects the greenback. Moreover, seems that investors’ risk appetite has deteriorated somewhat, also having supported the yen across the board, allowing the pair to retreat to the region of 109.70 in Asia. Today all investors’ attention will remain focused on the bloc of US economic reports due for release in the NA session, while US dollar’s price dynamics will continue to navigate the market throughout this Thursday.

The main events of the day:
UK Retail Sale – 11.30 (GMT +3)
EU CPI – 12.00 (GMT +3)
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index – 15.30 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1643 R. 1.1839
USDJPY S. 109.46 R. 111.30
GBPUSD S. 1.2815 R. 1.2939
USDCHF S. 0.9573 R. 0.9807
AUDUSD S. 0.7774 R. 0.8008
NZDUSD S. 0.7189 R. 0.7379
USDCAD S. 1.2510 R. 1.2824

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Friday, August 18th

The EUR/USD pair shows positive mood at the end of this week, as shrinking risk appetite and weaker US dollar support the pair on Friday. Seems that the market is still being influenced by dovish FOMC meeting minutes, which showed concerns of the regulator over weaker growth pace of the US inflation, which in turn is still pressuring the greenback. Moreover, increased demand for safe-haven, boosted by terror attack in Barcelona, supports the shared currency this Friday. On the other hand, further upside of the pair may appear capped, as the market is still digesting slightly dovish ECB minutes. The ECB protocols showed that the regulator was worried about stronger euro. Also Bank’s members noted that ECB will continue to maintain accommodative monetary policy if needed. Looking ahead, today only several Fedspeaks will be able to bring some impetus to the pair at the second half of the NA trading session, so broad market trend will remain as an exclusive driver for the pair at the end of this week.

The dollar/yen pair remains negative for the third session in a row, as numerous factors pressure the pair at the end of this week. Yesterday a huge wave of risk-off sentiments approached the market, after it became known of the terrorist attack in Barcelona, which significantly increased demand for safe-haven assets, such as the yen. According to the latest information, at least 13 people were killed and more than 100 injured, and the terrorist group “Islamic State” has already taken responsibility for the assault. Adding to this, ongoing weakness of the US dollar, backed by recent dovish FOMC minutes, also collaborates with pair’s retreat at the end of this week. Today we will have quiet data session, as the US calendar will keep silence, leaving the pair at the mercy of low risk trend and the USD price dynamics throughout this trading session.

The USD/CAD pair regained its negative bias on Friday, failing to maintain its yesterday’s recovery, as sell-off of the greenback remains one of the key drivers across the market today. Seems that the US dollar continues to lose points against its main competitors at the end of this week, as the market is still digesting recent dovish FOMC minutes. Adding to this, ongoing correction of oil prices, triggered by Wednesday’s bigger-then-expected drop in US oil inventories by the EIA, remains supportive to commodity-linked assets, such as the Loonie. Investors now are focusing their attention on Canadian inflation figures due for release later during early NA session, which will be the only fundamental report from both neighboring economies, so widespread market trend and oil price dynamics will continue to navigate the pair throughout this session.

Bitcoin continues to amaze the market, having refreshed its record highs in the pair with its US counterpart at 4482.20 spot yesterday. However, the BTC/USD pair managed to correct lower for about 200 USD, as investors took some profits off the table. By the moment of writing, the cryptocurrency was trading at 4290.00, while its market cap stepped over the mark of 71 billion USD, according to data available on coinmarketcap.com. Recent uptick in demand for Bitcoin is mainly attributed to the announcement that a private Swiss bank allowed its customers to buy and hold bitcoin within their accounts, becoming the first bank to offer bitcoin directly to its clients. This news strongly boosted the popularity of Bitcoin and gave other financial institutions an example of integrating electronic cash into their services.
The main events of the day:
Canadian Core CPI – 15.30 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1596 R. 1.1854
USDJPY S. 108.87 R. 110.71
GBPUSD S. 1.2820 R. 1.2932
USDCHF S. 0.9551 R. 0.9737
AUDUSD S. 0.7826 R. 0.7990
NZDUSD S. 0.7244 R. 0.7354
USDCAD S. 1.2554 R. 1.2746

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Monday, August 21st

Today the EUR/USD pair stepped below the level of 1.1750, despite strong risk-off trend, which was dominating the market in Asia. Seems that renewed demand for the US dollar remains the key determinant for the pair at the start of this week amid lack of any fundamental drivers. Moreover, last week’s ECB minutes, which showed worries of the regulator regarding higher exchange rate of the common currency, are still weighing the pair on Monday. However, shrinking risk appetite, backed by reappeared concerns over the conflict between the US and N.Korea, may provide some support to the euro, thus limiting pair’s further losses. Today nothing important is scheduled in data calendar, so the pair will continue to trace global market sentiments, while investors are slowly shifting their attention to the main event of this week - Jackson Hole Symposium, which will begin this Thursday.

The USD/JPY pair navigates on south at the start of this trading week, as boosted flight to safety remains the key determinant for the pair. The new wave of risk aversions approached the market this Monday, as N.Korea threatened the US to unleash a “merciless strike” on the back of upcoming joint US-South Korea military drills. Pyongyang named this exercises “reckless behaviour driving the situation into the uncontrollable phase of a nuclear war”, thereby boosting tensions between the US and Korean Peninsula. However, positive sentiments, surrounding the US dollar at the start of this week, may limit pair’s further loses. Looking ahead, the US calendar won’t bring anything relevant today, so broad risk aversion will continue to navigate the market throughout this Monday.

The GBP/USD pair was capped within a flat corridor this morning, consolidating its rebound from 5-week lows near the level of 1.2870. However, further upside looks unlikely, as renewed risk-off trend, fuelled by ongoing geopolitical drama between the US and North Korea is pressuring on the pound at the start of this week. Adding to this, recent recovery of the greenback also negatively affects the pair on Monday. In the day ahead, we will have absolutely empty data calendar, so broad market trend will remain as an exclusive driver for the pair throughout this trading session.

The AUD/USD pair trades with a bearish bias on Monday, remaining under pressure of several factors. Seems that the US dollar has managed to regain its bullish trend, forcing the pair to lose points at the start of this week. Moreover, strong risk aversions, backed by geopolitical tensions between the US and North Korea, are negatively affecting demand for higher-yielding assets, such as the Aussie. Today the pair will continue to track broad market sentiments and US dollar price-actions for further momentum, as the US data calendar will remain silent during this trading session.

The main events of the day:
None

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1679 R. 1.1813
USDJPY S. 108.14 R. 110.12
GBPUSD S. 1.2787 R. 1.2959
USDCHF S. 0.9551 R. 0.9717
AUDUSD S. 0.7838 R. 0.7988
NZDUSD S. 0.7247 R. 0.7367
USDCAD S. 1.2475 R. 1.2743

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Tuesday, August 22nd

The EUR/USD pair corrects lower after yesterday’s rally, having broken through the level of 1.1800 on the back of recovery of the US dollar across the market. Adding to this, slightly improved risk sentiments amid cooling off conflict between the US and North Korea also negatively affect the pair on Tuesday. However, all traders’ attention remains on the Jackson Hole Symposium, where members of CBs, including J.Yellen and M.Draghi, will deliver speeches on monetary policy of banks. That is why the market will keep its cautious stance ahead of the key event of this week. But for now all eyes remain glued to German ZEW Economic Sentiment, while the US economic docket will continue to keep silence for the second consecutive day, so broad market trend will remain as a key determinant for the pair throughout the NA session.

The USD/JPY pair broke out of its 4-day losing streak, bouncing off the region of 4-month lows, located below the level of 109.00, despite broad US dollar weakness. The pair regained the level of 109.00 and by the time of writing was consolidating its previous gains in the region of 109.20-30, as improved risk-on sentiments are weighing the yen. Seems that yesterday’s concerns surrounding geopolitical tensions between the US and N.Korea have faded away, allowing investors to shift their attention to more risky assets. Adding to this, further recovery of the US dollar may appear supportive for the pair, extending its gains. Today we have another quiet data session, so broad market risk sentiments and the USD price dynamics will remain key driving factors for the pair on Tuesday.

The AUD/USD pair was demonstrating low volatility level in Asia, consolidating its positions within a 20-pips narrow trading range just a few pips below the level of 0.7950. Seems that the pair was unable to determine its direction during Asian trading session amid lack of any fundamental drivers, while several factors failed to provide the pair with any impetus for further trajectory. On the one side, minor recovery of the US dollar did little to help bears to take control over the pair. On the other hand, improved demand for higher-yielding instruments and better sentiments surrounding commodity market, especially copper, are still lending some support to the Aussie. Looking ahead, the US docket will remain muted for the second session in a row, leaving the pair at the mercy of global market sentiments and the US dollar price actions on Tuesday.

Bitcoin extends retreat against its American colleague from its ultimate highs, marked at 4482.20 spot on August 17. The BTC/USD pair slipped below its psychological mark of 4000.00 and currently is trading in the region of 3800, having lost about 6% for the last 24 hours according to data available on coinmarketcap.com. Recent retreat of the cryptocurrency is mainly attributed to profit-taking action, after enormous rally of the digital currency, triggered by headlines that the Swiss private bank allowed customers to use Bitcoin within their accounts. However, recent retreat of the pair may appear temporary, as growing popularity of electronic cash is still gathering pace, while next important event for Bitcoin remains SegWit2x, which is scheduled on November.

The main events of the day:
German ZEW Economic Sentiment – 12.00 (GMT +3)
Canadian Core Retail Sales – 15.30 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1692 R. 1.1888
USDJPY S. 108.21 R. 109.79
GBPUSD S. 1.2821 R. 1.2953
USDCHF S. 0.9549 R. 0.9719
AUDUSD S. 0.7895 R. 0.7973
NZDUSD S. 0.7289 R. 0.7355
USDCAD S. 1.2519 R. 1.2625

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Wednesday, August 23rd

The EUR/USD pair came out of its bearish consolidation phase in European morning and refreshed its daily highs at 1.1794, following positive preliminary German Manufacturing PMI report and slightly hawkish speech of ECB President M.Draghi. Adding to this, prevailing risk-off trend, triggered by US President D.Trump’s speech, during which he threatened to close down the government in order to get funding to build a barrier along US southern border, also supports the major currency pair this Wednesday. On the other hand, further upside of the pair looks limited, as investors refrain of placing any important directional bets ahead of Jackson Hole Symposium, which will take place this Thursday. The market is expecting that both heads of regulators will offer some hawkish signs on monetary policies, which will boost speculations over the divergence between the Fed and ECB. In the day ahead, market participants will focus their attention on the data from the US housing market, while broad market trend will continue to lead the pair throughout this Wednesday.

The USD/JPY pair came under strong selling pressure in Asia, after risk sentiments made a sharp turn around, forcing the pair to wipe part of its yesterday’s gains. The pair received strong bearish impetus ahead of the key psychological mark of 110.00 and fell for about 50 points after US President Donald Trump threatened to close down the government to obtain approval for financing the construction of the wall on the border with Mexico. This statement provoked a solid wave of risk aversions, thereby supporting Japanese currency. Moreover, the yen received additional support in Asian on the back Japanese preliminary manufacturing PMI, which came out above market’s expectations. However, retreat of the pair may appear limited, as investors will continue to keep cautious stance ahead of Jackson Hole Symposium, refraining from opening important directional bets. Today the US will release important data from the housing market in the NA session, while broad risk-off trend will continue to remain as a key navigator for the pair on Wednesday.

The GBP/USD pair remains under pressure on Wednesday, trying hard to correct after yesterday’s sharp drawdown. Currently the pair is trading within striking distance of its 2-month lows, located at 1.2807 level, as strong risk-off sentiments, backed by recent US President D.Trump warning to shut down the US government in order to build wall with Mexico, keep the pair under pressure lately. However, it is expected that today we won’t see any sharp moves of the pair, as markets prefer to stay away of making any important decisions ahead of the key event of this week - Jackson Hole Symposium, which can trigger massive volatility across the market on the back of Fed Chair J.Yellen comments. Meanwhile, investors’ attention shifts towards the US flash PMI report, which will be able to bring fresh impetus to the pair in the NA session, while the UK docket will keep silence today, leaving the pair at the mercy of global market trend.

The NZD/USD pair remains one of the weakest assets of this Wednesday, having refreshed its 6-week lows at 0.7220 mark. The Kiwi came under strong selling pressure in Asia, after NZ Treasury lowered GDP forecasts in its New Zealand pre-election Economic and Fiscal update [PREFU]. Adding to this, strong wave of risk aversions, triggered by US President D.Trump’s overnight comments, has also negatively affected higher-yielding NZ dollar. Looking ahead, today investors will focus their attention on the US New Home Sales report and Crude Oil Inventories from EIA, which will bring some fresh trading opportunities in the NA session, however, continuing risk-off trend will keep the pair under pressure in the middle of this week.

The main events of the day:
US New Home Sales – 17.00 (GMT +3)
US Crude Oil Inventories – 17.30 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1696 R. 1.1856
USDJPY S. 108.54 R. 110.16
GBPUSD S. 1.2749 R. 1.2945
USDCHF S. 0.9578 R. 0.9740
AUDUSD S. 0.7866 R. 0.7972
NZDUSD S. 0.7234 R. 0.7356
USDCAD S. 1.2491 R. 1.2629

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Friday, August 25th

The EUR/USD pair trades with bearish bias at the end of this week, extending its retreat below the level of 1.1800, having barely reacted on positive data from the German economy. Retreat of the pair is mainly attributed to broad US dollar correction, while typical cautiousness ahead of important event is limiting pair’s chances on recovery, as investors refrain from placing any important directional bets. The key events of this day remain speeches delivered by Fed Chair J.Yellen and ECB President Draghi at the Jackson Hole economic forum. Markets awaits that both heads of regulators will point out on monetary policy courses of Banks, which will strongly boost speculations on the divergence between the Fed and ECB. In addition to Jackson Hole Symposium, the US economy will release durable goods data in early NA session, which will also be able to bring some directional impetus to the pair in the day ahead.

The GBP/USD pair remains largely unchanged at the end of this week that clearly shows that the market still keeps cautious stance on the back of the upcoming second round of Jackson Hole Symposium. Today investors eagerly await for Fed Chair J.Yellen’s speech, as it may contain some fresh hints on further Fed monetary policy course, which in turn will have a significant impact on the US dollar. Moreover, renewed jitters regarding Brexit negotiations and ongoing uncertainty on the US political field are negatively affecting demand for higher-yielding assets, thereby keeping the pair capped near the level of 1.2800 at the end of this week. Besides the economic symposium, investors will also pay attention to the US Core Durable Goods Orders report, which will be able to bring additional trading opportunities to market participant during the NA session.

The USD/JPY pair keeps bid tone for the second session in a row, as mild correction of the US dollar continues to influence the market. However, the pair couldn’t to keep its positions and had retreated lower by the European opening, after having faced resistance near the level of 110.00, as better-than-expected Japanese CPI figures supported the yen. Adding to this, persisting nervousness ahead of much-awaited speech by the Fed Chair Janet Yellen at Jackson Hole Symposium, which may shed some light on Fed further monetary policy steps, will keep pair’s further gains capped. Today investors will also pay attention to the release of US durable goods orders, which are scheduled on the NA session, however, it is expected that the reaction on it will be limited amid broad market’s cautiousness.

The USD/CAD pair extends its multiday streak of losses for the third consecutive session, refreshing its 4-week lows at the level of 1.2500, despite broad US dollar correction. It seems that ongoing uncertainty on the US political field, triggered by Tuesday’s US President D.Trump’s threat to close down the US government in order to approve funding for a wall build with Mexico, is still weighing on the pair. Adding to this, ongoing recovery of oil prices are lending support to the commodity-linked Loonie, thereby also collaborating with pair’s retreat. Looking ahead, today all traders’ attention will remain focused on the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium, where head bankers will talk on monetary policies issues, while widespread cautiousness will restrain investors from making any important decisions.

The main events of the day:
German Ifo Business Climate Index – 11.00 (GMT +3)
US Core Durable Goods Orders – 15.30 (GMT +3)
Fed Chair J.Yellen’s speech – 17.00 (GMT +3)
ECB President M.Draghi’s speech – 22.00 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1766 R. 1.1834
USDJPY S. 108.57 R. 110.09
GBPUSD S. 1.2740 R. 1.2866
USDCHF S. 0.9599 R. 0.9695
AUDUSD S. 0.7844 R. 0.7944
NZDUSD S. 0.7167 R. 0.7255
USDCAD S. 1.2483 R. 1.2579

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[EEAnalytics]

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Tuesday, August 29th

The EUR/USD pair broke through its psychological resistance level of 1.20 in European morning, extending its multiyear highs. Currently the main currency pair is trading in the region of 1.2050, having refreshed its tops at 1.2070, which is the highest level since January 2015. The offered tone behind the greenback, triggered by disappointing speech of Fed Chair J.Yellen, remains one of the key navigators across the market, thereby supporting the pair. Adding to this, recent speech by ECB President M.Draghi at the Jackson Hole Symposium was perceived by markets as hawkish, as the head of the regulator was talking about plans of the ECB regarding tapering the QE program, that has strongly boosted speculations on divergence between the Fed and ECB, which, in turn appear, supportive to the pair. Moreover, persisting risk-off moods, ignited by escalated North Korean tensions, are also positively affecting the shared currency. Looking ahead, today we have another light data calendar, as only US CB Consumer Confidence numbers will offer fresh impetus to the pair, so widespread US dollar’s retreat and risk-off market trend will continue to lead the pair throughout this trading session.

The dollar/yen pair refreshed its 4-month lows at 108.33 spot in Asia in wake of recent headlines that N.Korea missiles entered Japanese air space. Tonight several missiles were fired from the Korean peninsula, which passed over Japan and fell into the waters of Pacific Ocean near Japanese island Hokkaido. Japanese policymakers have already named this incident as an unprecedented and a grave threat. These recent events have strongly boosted demand for safe-haven assets, thereby supporting the yen across the market. However, the pair managed to correct higher and by the time of writing was trading in the region of 108.80. Later today, it is expected that the pair will remain under pressure, as weaker US dollar also weights the pair in the first half of this working week. On the data front, today investors will focus their attention on US CB Consumer Confidence numbers, which will be released in the NA session, while risk-off trend and selling interest around the greenback will continue to remain as key driving factors across the market throughout this Tuesday.

The GBP/USD pair extends its winning streak for the fourth consecutive session, recovering from multimonth lows, touched last week, despite weaker demand for higher-yielding instruments. Pair’s strong bullish rally is mainly driven by ongoing sell-off of the US dollar, triggered by Friday’s uninformative speech of Fed Chair J.Yellen, which was perceived by the markets as “dovish”. On the other hand, accelerated flight to safety, fueled by overnight reports of the North Korean missile launch, and increased concerns, surrounding upcoming Brexit negotiations, may limit pair’s further upside, since the pound is a highly volatile tool. Now market participant are shifting their focus on the US data, which are expected later today, while weak sentiments surrounding the US dollar and low risk appetite will continue to drive the pair on Tuesday.

The NZD/USD the pair was trading southward during the Asian trading session, as broad risk aversion was dominating the market. Escalation of political relations between the US and North Korea remains the main driving factor across the market on Tuesday, as news about another missile test launch by N.Korea spooked market participants once again. These latest developments negatively affected all higher-yielding assets, including the Kiwi. On the other hand, ongoing weakness of the US dollar, backed by Fed Chair J.Yellen’s disappointing speech, will continue to support the pair during this trading session. Today we will have another quiet data session, with only US consumer confidence data scheduled in the today’s economic calendar, so broad risk sentiments and US dollar price dynamics will continue to determine pair’s further development course.

The main events of the day:
US CB Consumer Confidence – 17.00 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1892 R. 1.2074
USDJPY S. 108.84 R. 109.62
GBPUSD S. 1.2845 R. 1.2985
USDCHF S. 0.9501 R. 0.9603
AUDUSD S. 0.7899 R. 0.8005
NZDUSD S. 0.7217 R. 0.7281
USDCAD S. 1.2419 R. 1.2553

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[EEAnalytics]

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Friday, September 1st

The EUR/USD pair continues to stay under selling pressure lately, however, having bounced off its weekly lows, marked yesterday at 1.1823 level. According to recent headlines, ECB members begin to show concerns about stronger positions of the euro that negatively affects the pair, forcing it to expand retreat from its multiyear highs, posted earlier this week. These recent news have forced the market to reconsider its expectations regarding tapering ECB’s QE program, and since the regulator’s meeting will take place next week, the single currency reacted sharply to these speculations. However, expected that the pair won’t show any sharp moves during European trading session, as investors refrain from placing any important directional bets ahead of key events. Today the US will release the NFP data report, which will become the main catalyst for the pair during this trading session.

The GBP/USD pair stalled its yesterday’s growth and returned back to its comfort zone, located near the level of 1.29, as the US dollar seems to have recovered a smile against its main competitors. The pair eased part of its overnight gains and by the moment of writing was trading in the region of 1.2910-20, as markets have passed over yesterday’s weak data from the US housing market, allowing the US dollar to recover part of its positions. Adding to this, slight concerns over Brexit negotiations weighs the pound at the last working day of this week, as both UK and EU remained unsatisfied by slow progress in the negotiation process after last meeting on the back of struggling to reach an agreement over the size of the “divorce bill”. Looking ahead, expected that the pair will continue to stay under pressure, as all traders’ attention now is glued to the crucial US jobs report, keeping the market in cautious stance, as this data release will be able to indicate further Fed monetary policy steps. Besides the NFP report, the UK manufacturing PMI will also be able to bring some short-term impetus to the pair during European trades.

The Loonie remains the top gainer of this Asia, having recovered the most part of its weekly losses in the pair with the greenback. The USD/CAD pair has lost nearly two cents since its yesterday’s highs, as investors are still digesting recent reports from both neighboring economies, which showed positive results of Canadian GDP and drop in US home sales. Moreover, recent recovery of oil prices also positively affected positions of commodity-linked Canadian currency. On the other hand, further drop of the pair looks unlikely, as better tone around the US dollar and widespread cautiousness, backed by upcoming crucial data from the US labor market, are capping pair’s further traction. On the data front, today all eyes will be focused on the risky NFP data release, which is scheduled on 15.30 (+3 GMT), for some fresh short-term trading opportunities.

The AUD/USD pair trades with a bearish bias on the last day of this working week, failing to benefit from slightly improved risk appetite, underpinned by better-than-expected Chinese Caixin manufacturing PMI. The recovery of the US dollar after yesterday’s disappointing data remains one of the key driving factors, thereby negatively influencing the pair lately. However, any further sharp moves of the major will remain capped amid persisting nervousness ahead of the key event of this day – the NFP report, as according to investors’ opinion it will be able bring some fresh clues regarding further Fed monetary policy developments. Also today, investors will see the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data, however, expected that the reaction on it will be limited due to more important events, scheduled ahead in the session.

The main events of the day:
German Manufacturing PMI – 10.55 (GMT +3)
UK Manufacturing PMI – 11.30 (GMT +3)
US Nonfarm Payrolls – 15.30 (GMT +3)
US Unemployment Rate – 15.30 (GMT +3)
US ISM Manufacturing PMI – 17.00 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1792 R. 1.1970
USDJPY S. 109.37 R. 110.95
GBPUSD S. 1.2823 R. 1.2989
USDCHF S. 0.9519 R. 0.9713
AUDUSD S. 0.7843 R. 0.8001
NZDUSD S. 0.7093 R. 0.7251
USDCAD S. 1.2354 R. 1.2728

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