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Thursday, October 12th

The EUR/USD pair extends its northward trend for the fifth consecutive session, having refreshed its 2-week highs in the vicinity of 1.1880 level, on the back of ongoing decline of the greenback. Recent weakness of the dollar is mostly attributed to the dovish outcome of the latest FOMC meeting, which revealed that some members were worried that recent drawdown of the inflation may not be temporary. These dovish comments eased market’s confidence that the Fed will continue to implement more aggressive tightening path of the monetary policy. Moreover, the common currency continues to benefit from easing concerns over the separation of Catalonia. Yesterday Spanish PM M.Rajoy announced that he gives 5 days to Catalonia’s leader C.Puigdemont to clarify the situation with the independence of Catalonia and 3 more days to “correct” it. Today all traders attention will remain focused on the US PPI data and several speeches from both sides, which will set up pair’s further trajectory during this trading session, while tomorrow’s US CPI report will keep investors from making important decisions, especially in light of the outcome of the latest FOMC meeting.

The GBP/USD pair is advancing for the fourth consecutive session, having refreshed its 6-day highs at 1.3265 spot. Ongoing weakness of the US dollar remains the key driving theme across the market, as yesterday’s FOMC minutes appeared less hawkish than it was expected. The FOMC protocols showed that the Fed members were worried that low inflation transitory period could be prolonged. This outcome of the meeting triggered wave of speculations of narrowing divergence between monetary policies of the Fed and BoE, which are especially interesting in wake of recent BoE talks of probable rate hike in the near future. Adding to this, positive sentiments surrounding the UK political space continue to support the pound so far this week, as investors hope that EU and UK will keep its positive relationship after Brexit. Today all investors’ attention will be focused on the US PPI report, while several speeches from both sides will also be able to bring some fresh trading opportunities during the NA session.

The AUD/USD pair remains bullish for the third session in a row, having refreshed its weekly highs in the region of 0.7825, benefiting from the USD weakness. Yesterday the US dollar accelerated its decline against its main competitors in wake of less hawkish FOMC meeting minutes. Despite reaffirming expectation of Fed rate hike, the minutes also showed Fed members’ concerns regarding slow inflation growth pace that in turn heavily weighed on the US dollar across the market. Moreover, positive secondary data from the Australia’s housing market, seen this morning, also underpinned bullish sentiments around the pair. Looking ahead, today investors will look forward for the US PPI data, while the USD price dynamics will remain the key driver for the pair during this trading session.

The USD/JPY pair came under fresh selling pressure, having reversed its yesterday’s gains, as sell-off of the US dollar is still gripping the market. Yesterday the US dollar received another bearish impetus, extending its streak of losses against its main competitors, as the outcome of the latest FOMC meeting appeared not so positive, as it was expected. Fed members once again reaffirmed market expectations of another rate increase this year, while showing concerns regarding low inflation level that in turn negatively affected sentiments around the US dollar. However, the ongoing silence from the Korean Peninsula is positively affecting risk appetite, which limits pair’s further losses. Today the US data calendar will offer the US PPI report, which will be released during the NA session, while several Fedspeaks will also provide investors with short-term trading opportunities in the day ahead.

The main events of the day:
US PPI – 15.30 (GMT +3)
ECB President M.Draghi’s Speech – 17.30 (GMT +3)
US Crude Oil Inventories – 18.00 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1766 R. 1.1916
USDJPY S. 111.87 R. 112.89
GBPUSD S. 1.3151 R. 1.3271
USDCHF S. 0.9687 R. 0.9787
AUDUSD S. 0.7750 R. 0.7828
NZDUSD S. 0.7040 R. 0.7120
USDCAD S. 1.2403 R. 1.2559

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Friday, October 13th

The EUR/USD pair lost its upside momentum this morning, having met resistance in the vicinity of 1.1850 level, on the back of attempts of the US dollar to correct higher against its main competitor after drawdown, backed by less hawkish FOMC meeting minutes. On the other hand, the pair was trading on a positive note during Asia, as the euro received a fresh boost, following recent headlines, saying that the ECB is considering the tapering of the QE program, starting from January 2018. However, further sharp moves of the pair look unlikely, as we are heading closer to the key event of this Friday – the release of the US CPI report, which could reinforce market’s expectations of more aggressive Fed monetary policy tightening path. Besides the US inflation, investors will also pay attention to US retail sales numbers, which will also be able to bring some additional impetus to the pair.

The GBP/USD pair continues to show positive dynamics so far this week, having refreshed its nearly 2-week highs at 1.3324 spot this morning, as continuing optimism around Brexit supports the pound. Seems that UK bulls are not going to give up, extending its winning streak for the fifth consecutive session, on the back of recent news headlines, citing EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier, who offered the UK to stay in the EU’s single market during the 2-year transition period. Moreover, subdued price dynamics of the US dollar and recent talks about narrowing divergence between Fed and BoE also collaborate with pair’s upside trend at the end of this week. Now all traders’ attention shifts towards crucial US CPI and retail sales figures, which could help the pair to determine its further direction.

The AUD/USD pair continues to show positive dynamics for the fourth day in a row, despite cautious RBA Financial Stability Review report and mixed Chinese trade data. The RBA once again reiterated its position, saying that higher interest rate level could weigh on the economy, and especially on the Australian housing market. Moreover, seems that the pair also remained resilient to mixed Chinese trade balance numbers, which failed to exert enough pressure on Australian bulls. Pair’s upside trend could be mainly explained only by a softer tone of the greenback, as markets continue to digest recent FOMC meeting minutes. However, further growth of the pair may appear capped, as we are heading to the key event of this week – US CPI report, which will be especially interesting in light of recent cautious comments of Fed members regarding low inflation growth rates in the US.

The BTC/USD pair continues to surprise the market with its performances. Recall, in September the BTC/USD pair dipped below the level of 3000, following restrictions on digital currency in China, which is the world’s largest crypto market. However, Bitcoin managed to recover a smile and refreshed its ultimate highs at 5867.60 earlier this session. There is no clear catalyst behind this aggressive upsurge, while markets believe that slew of secondary positive factors, such as Amazon bringing bitcoin on their platform, rumors that bitcoin trading would likely be resumed with more regulation in China or increasing trading volumes in S.Korea and Japan, are providing enough support to Bitcoin, so the pair could resume its upside trend. Currently the BTC/USD pair is trading at 5562.70 spot, while its market capitalization rose above 90 billion USD, referring to the data from coinmarketcap.com.

The main events of the day:
US Core CPI – 15.30 (GMT +3)
US Core Retail Sales – 15.30 (GMT +3)
US Retail Sales – 15.30 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1792 R. 1.1898
USDJPY S. 111.92 R. 112.70
GBPUSD S. 1.3056 R. 1.3394
USDCHF S. 0.9690 R. 0.9794
AUDUSD S. 0.7762 R. 0.7864
NZDUSD S. 0.7047 R. 0.7187
USDCAD S. 1.2407 R. 1.2523

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Monday, October 16th

The EUR/USD pair extends its downside trend for the third consecutive day, having breached the level of 1.1800 this morning, on the back of headlines about ECB QE program and expectations of the outcome on the Catalan independence declaration. The political uncertainty surrounding Catalonia’s independence vote remains one of the key driving factors for the pair, as worries about further escalation of political uncertainty in Spain weigh on the common currency. Moreover, recent news headlines, stating that the ECB intends to implement only minor adjustments in the QE program, which won’t be able to affect the overall picture, exert extra pressure on the euro. Adding to this, Friday’s dovish comments of ECB president M.Draghi, who once again reiterated the need of more accommodative monetary policy, forced the pair to close eyes to Friday’s disappointing US inflation and retail sales figures. Today both economic calendars won’t offer anything relevant, so the pair will continue to navigate, following broad market trend, while any developments from Spanish political field will be able to trigger volatility in the day ahead.

The GBP/USD pair remains on a firm note at the first working day of this week, breaking through the level 1.3300, in wake of unsuccessful attempts of the US dollar to correct its positions after Friday’s sharp downside move, triggered by a slew of disappointing US economic indicators. Moreover, the pound got additional positive impetus on the back of headlines, saying that UK PM T.May and Brexit Secretary David Davis will make an emergency trip to Brussels on Monday to meet EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier and European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker ahead of the EU summit to try to budge the negotiations over the Brexit deal. Adding to this, narrowing divergence between the Fed and BoE and improved risk appetite among investors, fueled by positive Chinese data, also keep sentiments upbeat around the pound. Today we have relatively silent data calendar, so broad market trend will remain the key driving factor for the pair during this trading session.

The AUD/USD pair navigates in a narrow range at the start of this trading week, consolidating its positions in the region of 0.7870–90, after Friday’s drawdown, backed by disappointing US CPI figures. However, the pair remains under pressure this morning, as the US dollar attempts to correct after strong sell-off, triggered by worse-than-expected US numbers. On the other hand, China released bloc of upbeat data, featuring PPI and CPI, which usually leads to risk-on rally across the market, thus lending support to the higher yielding-currencies, such as the Aussie. Today the US calendar won’t bring anything noteworthy, leaving the pair at the mercy of global market trend and risky sentiments, while RBA will publish minutes from its last meeting, which will be able to bring some fresh trading opportunities, especially in light of recent dovish talks regarding subdued recovery of the Australian economy.

The dollar/yen pair failed to extend its early upside trend and surrendered major part of its Asian gains, having returned to the region of 3-week lows, marked at 111.69 spot on Friday. Earlier this Monday the pair received minor bullish impetus in wake of the US dollar attempts to correct higher against its main competitors after its drawdown, backed by weak inflation data. Moreover, broadly based risk-on trend, underpinned by positive Chinese data, also negatively affected the safe-haven yen. However, further upside lacked any momentum, as investors are still digesting recent Friday’s disappointment, which weighed on market expectation of Fed’s more aggressive monetary policy tightening path. Today the US calendar will remain broadly silent, so the US dollar dynamics and widespread market trend will remain as exclusive driving factors for the pair throughout this trading session.

The main events of the day:
None

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1761 R. 1.1903
USDJPY S. 111.32 R. 112.56
GBPUSD S. 1.3196 R. 1.3380
USDCHF S. 0.9672 R. 0.9806
AUDUSD S. 0.7782 R. 0.7950
NZDUSD S. 0.7085 R. 0.7239
USDCAD S. 1.2411 R. 1.2547

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Tuesday, October 17th

The EUR/USD pair remains under bearish control for the fourth consecutive session, as uncertainty on the political field of Spain drags the euro lower against its main competitors. Yesterday Catalonia leader Carles Puigdemont failed to provide more clarity on the current situation, so the Spanish government gave him more time to decide on whether he wants to declare the independency of Catalonia or not. Moreover, continuing optimism around the US dollar remains one of the key driving factors across the market so far this week, which also negatively affects the pair. On the data front, now investors are looking forward to the release of the German ZE surveys and Eurozone final CPI report, which will be able to set up pair’s next trajectory, while the US calendar will offer only secondary data reports during the NA session, leaving the pair at the mercy of broad market trend.

The GBP/USD pair shows subdued trading dynamics on Tuesday, wobbling near the level of 1.3250, as investors remain in anticipation of crucial data from the UK economy. However, the pair continues to stay under pressure so far this week, as renewed jitters around Brexit are weighing the UK currency. Seems that the UK and EU are still struggling to make any progress in the Brexit negotiations, thus easing market expectation of positive Brexit deal. Adding to this, upbeat sentiments around the US dollar and easing demand for higher-yielding currencies are also exerting negative pressure on the pair lately. It is expected that today we will have pretty volatile session, as the UK economic calendar will bring crucial inflation data and BoE Governor M.Carney will deliver a speech, where his comments regarding further monetary policy tightening measures will be highly influential for the pound.

The AUD/USD pair managed to bounce off its intraday lows, marked at 0.7835 level, however, remaining under pressure on the back of several bearish factors. Earlier this session the pair received moderate bearish impetus after RBA published protocols from its last meeting. The Bank once again reiterated its position that any monetary policy tightening measures would depend only on domestic economic conditions, and not on broad interest rate increase. Also the RBA members also showed worries about still high Aussie, which negatively affects inflation and global economic growth pace. Moreover, ongoing recovery of the US dollar and reduced risk appetite also contributed to pair’s decline. Looking ahead, the US economic calendar will continue to keep silence today, so the broad market trend and the US dollar price dynamics will continue to navigate the pair throughout this session.

The dollar/yen pair alternates gains with losses on Tuesday, having been stuck between bulls and bears. Earlier today, the yen received bearish impetus after North Korea’s deputy UN envoy Kim In-ryong stated, that his country would not give up nuclear weapons, since this is a justified measure of self-defense. Also he noted that no country in the world has been exposed to such an extreme and direct nuclear threat from the US for so long, and the situation on the Korean Peninsula has reached “the touch-and-go point and a nuclear war may breakout at any moment”. As a result, a massive wave of risk-off sentiments approached the market, boosting the demand for safe-haven assets, such as the yen. On the other hand, the US dollar continues to recover its positions across the market after disappointing Friday’s inflation figures that is capping pair’s retreat. Today the US calendar won’t bring anything noteworthy, so markets will pay close attention to any headlines from North Korea for further momentum.

The main events of the day:
UK CPI – 11.30 (GMT +3)
German ZEW Economic Sentiment – 12.00 (GMT +3)
EU CPI – 12.00 (GMT +3)
BoE Governor M.Carney’s Speech – 13.15 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1759 R. 1.1839
USDJPY S. 111.41 R. 112.67
GBPUSD S. 1.3174 R. 1.3348
USDCHF S. 0.9711 R. 0.9791
AUDUSD S. 0.7815 R. 0.7907
NZDUSD S. 0.7137 R. 0.7213
USDCAD S. 1.2416 R. 1.2608

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Wednesday, October 18th

The EUR/USD pair extends its bearish trend for the fifth consecutive session, remaining within striking distance of its weekly lows, marked yesterday at 1.1736 spot. Ongoing decline of the pair could be mainly explained by increasing demand for the US dollar. Yesterday the greenback caught fresh bids after hawkish comments of Fed member P.Harker, who predicted another three rate hikes next year, which were considered by the market as hint on more aggressive Fed monetary policy tightening. Moreover, yesterday US President D.Trump added some extra optimism around the US dollar, saying that he wants to implement tax reform by Christmas. On the other side, any further recovery of the euro looks unlikely, as the Catalan crisis is still unresolved. Today, the head of the ECB M.Draghi is expected to speak, while the US will release data from the housing market, which will provide additional trading opportunities to investors during the NA session.

The GBP/USD pair failed to extend its recovery path in Asia, after less enthusiastic talks of BoE members, keeping its positions below the level of 1.3200. Yesterday the pair came under strong bearish pressure, following not hawkish enough speech of BoE Governor M.Carney. Although Mr.Carney confirmed the possibility of a rate hike in the coming months, markets remained disappointed by lack of any details regarding further Bank’s monetary policy actions. Meanwhile, yesterday’s crucial data from the UK economy also did little to support the pair, as inflation figures reached market’s estimations that failed to impress bulls. Adding to this, ongoing concerns over Brexit negotiations also remain negative driving factor for the pound lately, as the UK and EU are still struggling to make any progress in Brexit deal discussions. Looking ahead, today we have plenty of economic events, scheduled in data calendar, such as important data from the UK labor market, the US housing market and the Crude Oil Inventories report, which, in turn, may influence market’s risk sentiments.

The USD/JPY pair stays bullish at the equator of this week, as demand for the US dollar remains one of the key themes across the market. Recent upside of the greenback is mainly attributed to hawkish talks of Fed member P.Harker, who sees the implementation of more aggressive monetary policy tightening path. Adding to this, fading demand for safety also negatively influences yen’s positions today, thus contributing to pair’s further growth. On the data front, today the US calendar will release the building permits numbers, which will be able to set up pair’s next trajectory, while increasing cautiousness ahead of Sunday’s Japanese election will likely limit pair’s any further sharp moves.

The NZD/USD pair failed to keep its yesterday’s bullish trend, triggered by positive NZ inflation data, and came under heavy selling pressure in the Asian trading session. Broad demand for the US dollar, underpinned by yesterday’s hawkish comments of Fed member P.Harker, remains one of the key factors weighing on the major. Moreover, uncertainty on the political field of the NZ, where the NZ National Party still hasn’t formed the government, also provides negative influence on the pair. However, positive dynamics of oil prices provides support to commodity-linked assets that may stall somewhat pair’s further decline. Today the US docket will bring the building permits report and the crude oil stockpiles, which are key events of this Wednesday, while several Fedspeaks will also be able to affect pair’s further direction during the NA session.

The main events of the day:
ECB President M.Draghi’s Speech– 11.10 (GMT +3)
UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus – 11.30 (GMT +3)
UK Claimant Count Change – 11.30 (GMT +3)
US Building Permits – 15.30 (GMT +3)
US Crude Oil Inventories –17.30 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1704 R. 1.1830
USDJPY S. 111.79 R. 112.67
GBPUSD S. 1.3078 R. 1.3344
USDCHF S. 0.9711 R. 0.9845
AUDUSD S. 0.7799 R. 0.7883
NZDUSD S. 0.7119 R. 0.7227
USDCAD S. 1.2463 R. 1.2619

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Thursday, October 19th

The EUR/USD pair stays positive on Thursday, having refreshed this week tops at 1.1822 level, as slight weakness of the US dollar is one of the key driving factors on the market. Seems that yesterday’s retreat of the greenback, additionally boosted by lackluster US housing data, supports the pair in the second half of this week, forcing it to keep its positions above the level of 1.1800. However, the pair stalled its downside direction in early Europe, as investors are digesting recent headlines, saying that the Catalan leader C.Puigdemont threatened Spain PM M.Rajoy that he would declare formal independence in case of no dialogue from Madrid. In response to this announcement, the Spanish PM intends to call a cabinet meeting on Saturday to discuss current situation. Expected, that today the pair will remain influenced by Catalan political updates, while the US will release Philly Fed manufacturing index, which will bring additional trading opportunities during the NA session.

The NZD/USD pair came under strong selling pressure during the Asian trading session, having lost 130 pips, on news that NZ First party will form the governments with Labour party. Earlier today, it became known that after a month of inconclusive negotiations New Zealand First finally made a decision to form the government with Labour party, which means that current NZ PM Bill English, whose party won a small advantage in the September elections, will have to resign. However, there is still no official announcement, but investors have already started to correct their positions in accordance to the latest news headlines, forcing the pair to retreat to its 5-month lows, marked at 0.7038 spot. On the other side, slight US dollar downside correction across the market might provide the pair with much needed respite, stalling its sharp rally. Looking ahead, today we have Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, scheduled in the US data calendar, however, further developments from the NZ political field will continue to navigate the pair during this trading session.

The GBP/USD pair failed to sustain its yesterday’s gains and retreated back below the level of 1.3200 by the European opening. The main reason of pound’s recent weakness is that investors remain cautious ahead of the EU Summit, with the agenda mainly centered on the Brexit negotiations. Investors mainly await for UK PM Theresa May’s speech for fresh insight on Brexit deal after long negotiations, which lacked any progress. Meanwhile, slight downside correction of the US dollar across the board and nervousness ahead of the important data release are limiting pair’s current retreat. Besides the EU Summit, investors will also pay attention to the UK retail sales numbers and Philly Fed manufacturing data, which will help to form next short-term trajectory of the pair on Thursday.

The AUD/USD pair failed to gain direct momentum following slew of positive data from Australia and China, released earlier this session. The pair received moderate bullish impetus during Asia, rallying 30 pips, on the back of a promising Aussie jobs report. However, the spike was short-lived and the pair retreated back to its comfort zone, located in the vicinity of 0.7850, as investors’ sentiments about the Aussie are still unclear after dovish RBA meeting minutes, seen on Tuesday. Nevertheless, the pair managed to recover its positive tone after China released upbeat data from the industrial sector. In general, the pair is showing bullish dynamics at the European morning, also taking into account slight retreat of the US dollar against its main competitors. Today all traders attention will remain focused on Philly Fed manufacturing data, while the US dollar price dynamics and broad market trend will continue to remain as key driving factors for the pair on Thursday.

The main events of the day:
UK Retail Sales – 11.30 (GMT +3)
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index – 15.30 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1697 R. 1.1849
USDJPY S. 111.78 R. 113.62
GBPUSD S. 1.3114 R. 1.3252
USDCHF S. 0.9746 R. 0.9870
AUDUSD S. 0.7803 R. 0.7879
NZDUSD S. 0.7089 R. 0.7209
USDCAD S. 1.2409 R. 1.2561

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Friday, October 20th

The EUR/USD pair met strong selling pressure on Friday after two consecutive session with gains, falling below the level of 1.1800. The downside rally of the pair could be mainly explained by renewed demand for the US dollar, as the US Senate has passed 2018 budget blueprint, which brings US President D.Trump’s tax reforms one-step closer to its implementation. Adding to this, ongoing uncertainty on the political field of Spain also collaborates with pair’s retreat, as the Spanish government could suspend Catalonia’s autonomy on Saturday in response to recent threats of C.Puigdemont to declare the independency of Catalonia, which remains one of the negative scenario of events. Today we will have pretty quiet data session, as EU data calendar lacks any important data releases, while the US will publish only existing home sales data, so broad market trend and the US dollar price dynamics will remain as key navigators for the pair during this trading session.

The NZD/USD pair remains highly pressured at the end of this trading week, having broken through its important psychological resistance of 0.7000 to its 5-month lows, located at 0.6971 level, on the back of recent developments from the NZ political field. The key driver of pair’s recent fall were headlines from New Zealand, stating that NZ First will form the next government with Labourites, supplanting the National Party from the political arena. These news spooked NZ bulls, as the policy of the new government may negatively influence the economy. Adding to this, Labour expressed their intention to reform the Central Bank that also exerted negative pressure on the pair. Moreover, sharp comeback of the US dollar across the market on the back of recent tax reform developments was another driving factor, which contributed to pair’s recent fall. Looking ahead, today we will have another pack of data from the US housing market, however, further developments from the NZ political field will be the main driving factor for NZD/USD on Friday.

The GBP/USD pair continues to stay under bearish control as several factors are exerting pressure on it. Yesterday the pair attempted to correct its positions, but the recovery was short-lived and the pair slumped to its nearly 2-week lows, marked at 1.3088 level. One of the reasons of pair’s weakness remains recovery of the US dollar, triggered by news that the US Senate approved 2018 budget blueprint, which were considered by markets as important step towards much awaited tax reforms. Moreover, the pound is showing negative dynamics lately, as EU Summit leaders expressed concerns regarding lack of progress in Brexit negotiations. On the data front, today we have only existing home sales report, scheduled in economic calendar, so any news about Brexit will hog the limelight on Friday.

The USD/JPY pair staged a solid comeback during Asia, breaking through the level of 113.00, as positive tone of the greenback remains key theme across the market at the last trading day of this week. During the Asian session, the US Senate approved a budget plan for the 2018 fiscal year, paving the way for the implementation of the long-waited tax reforms, promised by President Trump. This news triggered strong buying wave around the US dollar, thus allowing the pair to recover its positions. Moreover, slight cautiousness among market participants ahead of Sunday’s Japanese elections also adds some negative pressure on the yen on Friday. Today the only important event will be the release the US existing home sales data, so broad market trend and the US dollar dynamics will continue to navigate the pair during this trading session.

The main events of the day:
Canada Core CP – 15.30 (GMT +3)
Canada Core Retail Sales – 15.30 (GMT +3)
US Existing Home Sales – 17.00 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1734 R. 1.1916
USDJPY S. 111.81 R. 113.51
GBPUSD S. 1.3061 R. 1.3277
USDCHF S. 0.9692 R. 0.9848
AUDUSD S. 0.7824 R. 0.7910
NZDUSD S. 0.6908 R. 0.7230
USDCAD S. 1.2432 R. 1.2520

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Monday, October 23rd

The EUR/USD pair remains under bearish control on Monday, as continuing political uncertainty surrounding Spain and positive mood of the US dollar are limiting pair’s chances to recover its positions. Recent comments of Spanish authorities, stating that the government agreed to implement Article 155, which allows the central government to take control of Catalonia, are pointing on escalation of the conflict on the political field of Spain. These developments play the role of negative factor for the euro, thus limiting pair’s further recovery. Moreover, ongoing optimism around the greenback, triggered by the approval of the US Senate 2018 budget blueprint, which gives a greenlight to long-awaited US President D.Trump’s tax reforms, is also contributing to pair’s retreat. On the data front, today the economic calendar will remain broadly silent, so any headlines about developments in Spain and the US dollar dynamics will be key navigators for the pair during this trading session.

The USD/JPY pair opened today with a bullish gap in the vicinity of 114.00 level, following Japan’s snap elections and improved risk appetite. As it was widely expected, PM S.Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party gained an absolute majority of votes, so the market has already managed to price-in its victory. In terms of monetary policy, this is potentially negative factor for the yen, as it means further implementation of ultra-easing measures of monetary policy. In this regard, Japan’s policymakers have already claimed that the authorities intend to accelerate the implementation of “abenomics”, calling the economy as the highest priority for the government. These events provoked demand for higher-yielding assets that additionally weighed the Japanese yen across the market. However, the pair was not able to keep its positions above the level of 114.00 and retreated to the area of 113.70 during Asia, as investors took profits off the table after a predictable outcome of recent events. Looking ahead, today we have absolutely empty data calendar, so the pair will continue to trace broad market trend and the US dollar dynamics during this trading session.

The NZD/USD pair once again refreshed its 5-month lows at 0.6913 level this morning, but managed to regain its positive tone and to recover about 60 pips. Recall, the pair came under strong selling pressure last week as the leader of NZ First W.Peters after month of negotiations finally made a decision to form the coalition with Labour, which triggered a sharp sell-off of the Kiwi in wake of unclear prospects of further actions of the new government. However, seems that the pair has recovered ground and now is navigating towards its psychological level of 0.70 on the back of renewed risk appetite and short-term recovery after massive downside rally, seen last week. In absence of any relevant macroeconomic releases from the US side, the pair will remain influenced by broad market trend, while the NZ market will continue to stay closed due to observance of Labour Day.

The GBP/USD pair extends its Friday’s positive trend, trying to consolidate its positions above the level of 1.3200, as several factors are supporting the pound today. Renewed demand for higher-yielding assets was key theme of the Asian session that allowed pound bulls to take control over the pair. Moreover, shadow of soft Brexit, underpinned by optimistic comments of UK PM T.May, who stated that the UK respects the financial commitment made to the EU, is also positively affecting the pair lately. On the other hand, ongoing optimist around the US, triggered by recent tax reform developments, limits pair’s gains at the first working day of the week. Today both economic calendars won’t bring anything interesting, leaving the pair at the mercy of broad market trend and the US dollar dynamics during this day.

The main events of the day:
New Zealand - Labour Day

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1704 R. 1.1894
USDJPY S. 112.11 R. 114.25
GBPUSD S. 1.3044 R. 1.3270
USDCHF S. 0.9711 R. 0.9915
AUDUSD S. 0.7761 R. 0.7909
NZDUSD S. 0.6901 R. 0.7065
USDCAD S. 1.2415 R. 1.2735

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Tuesday, October 24th

The EUR/USD pair regained its bullish tone and now is navigating back to its intraday highs, marked at 1.1770 spot, following positive German manufacturing data. However, further growth may appear capped, as markets are digesting latest developments from Spain. Recently Catalan government warned about the possibility of civil disobedience in response to recent comments of Spanish PM M.Rajoy, who intends to introduce direct rule to the Catalonia region. Adding to that, slight cautiousness across the market is starting to gather the pace, also limiting pair’s gains, as we are heading closer to the key event of this week – ECB monetary policy meeting, which will take place on Thursday. Market participants expect from ECB President M.Draghi detailed information about possible changes in the QE program. On the data front, nothing else is left in the economic calendar for this Tuesday, so further political developments from Spain and the US dollar price changes will remain as key driving factors for the pair during this trading session.

The NZD/USD pair lost its recovery momentum and once again refreshed its 5-month lows at 0.6926 mark this morning on the back of fresh talks of NZ authorities. In Asia NZD came under aggressive bearish pressure after new NZ PM Jacinda Ardern called for a review and reform of Reserve Bank Act. The market took this statement as dovish, as it leads to uncertainty in further monetary policy. However, the retreat of the Kiwi may appear limited, as mildly bearish sentiments around the greenback and positive tone of oil prices support the pair in the first half of this week. Today the US calendar once again will keep silence, so the US dollar price dynamics and developments from the NZ political area will remain as key determinants for the major during this trading session.

The dollar/yen pair remains positive on Tuesday on the back of attempts of the US dollar to correct higher after yesterday’s drawdown. On Monday the pair opened with strong bullish gap, having refreshed its 3-month tops in the region of 114.00 level, on the back of Sunday’s snap election results, which showed undeniable win of Japanese PM Shinzo Abe. These results the market considered as dovish, as Mr. Abe intends to implement ultra-easing measures to the monetary policy. However, since the win of Japanese PM was inevitable, the positive momentum faded quickly and the pair managed to fill the gap and to retreat to this day lows, marked at 113.25 spot. Today nothing much is scheduled in the data calendar, so the pair will continue to trace broad market trend and the US dollar dynamics to determine its further direction.

The GBP/USD pair eased its Asian gains and broke through the level of 1.3200 mainly in response to attempts of the US dollar to regain its positive tone across the market. However, further retreat of the pair may appear capped as the pound continues to benefit from positive comments of UK PM May regarding Brexit negotiations delivered a day before. Moreover, EU Chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier also added some extra optimism around the pound, stating that there is possible way to reach good Brexit deal. Today both economic calendar won’t provide the market with any relevant data releases, so broad market sentiments and US dollar price actions will set up pair’s further trajectory during this trading session.

The main events of the day:
None

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1697 R. 1.1803
USDJPY S. 112.74 R. 114.44
GBPUSD S. 1.3124 R. 1.3262
USDCHF S. 0.9804 R. 0.9904
AUDUSD S. 0.7774 R. 0.7850
NZDUSD S. 0.6903 R. 0.7019
USDCAD S. 1.2593 R. 1.2685

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Wednesday, October 25th

The EUR/USD pair trades without clear direction on Wednesday, staying within 1.1755-70 narrow range, on the back of increasing cautiousness across the market, as we are heading towards important event, which will be held during the next trading session. The pair remains broadly resilient to positive tone of the greenback today, as investors refrain from placing any important directional bets ahead of the ECB monetary policy meeting. It is widely expected that the Bank will reaffirm the need of accommodative monetary policy, while any comments regarding potential QE program adjustments may appear highly influential for the pair. Looking ahead, today we have a pretty busy trading session, which will bring German business climate data and pack of the US releases that will be able to set up pair’s next near-term trend, while broad cautiousness and the US dollar price changes will also have some impact on the pair during this day.

The AUD/USD pair extends its losing streak for the fourth consecutive day, having refreshed its 3-month lows at 0.7716 spot, amid several bearish factors, which are weighing the pair. The Aussie remains the main outsider of this Asian trading session on the back of weaker-than-expected Australia’s CPI numbers, which forced the pair to lose about 70 pips. These economic results sparked fresh speculations about divergence between monetary policies of the Fed and RBA, which are especially relevant in light of recent dovish remarks of RBA officials. Adding to this, mildly bearish tone on the commodity market and shrinking risk appetite also add some pressure on the AUD/USD pair at the middle of this trading week. On the data front, today the US will release slew of macro data during the NA session, which will bring additional trading opportunities to investors.

The USD/CAD pair shows subdued trading dynamics at the equator of this week, staying in the region of 1.2670-90, ahead of the crucial BoC meeting. It is expected that the Bank will keep its interest level unchanged, while some dovish comments from BoC members won’t be a surprise, taking into account the latest Canadian economic results, including lower-than-expected inflation figures and a weak retail sales report. Adding to this, better tone of the greenback against its main competitors also helps the pair to keep its positions within striking distance of its 2-month tops, marked a day before. Besides the BoC meeting, investors will also keep eyes on the bloc of the US macro data, which will also be able to provide some short-term impetus to the pair during the NA session.

The NZD/USD pair remains highly offered so far this week, having once again refreshed its 5-month lows at 0.6882 earlier this session. The Kiwi continues to suffer from ongoing political uncertainty in the NZ, underpinned by fresh news, saying that new NZ PM J.Ardern intends to appoint leader of NZ First party Winston Peters to the position of the deputy prime minister and foreign minister. The market took this news as dovish, as Mr.Peters is considered as protectionist politician. Moreover, positive tone of the greenback remains one of the key themes across the market that also contributes to pair’s retreat on Wednesday. Today all traders’ attention will remain focused on the pack of US macroeconomic releases, featuring durable goods orders, new home sales data and crude oil stockpiles, which will help the pair to set up its further direction.

The main events of the day:
German Ifo Business Climate – 11.00 (GMT +3)
UK prelim. GDP – 11.30 (GMT +3)
US Core Durable Goods Orders – 15.30 (GMT +3)
US New Home Sales – 17.00 (GMT +3)
BoC Interest Rate Decision – 17.00 (GMT +3)
US Crude Oil Inventories – 17.30 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1714 R. 1.1814
USDJPY S. 112.94 R. 114.50
GBPUSD S. 1.3043 R. 1.3271
USDCHF S. 0.9813 R. 0.9959
AUDUSD S. 0.7736 R. 0.7844
NZDUSD S. 0.6814 R. 0.7048
USDCAD S. 1.2591 R. 1.2733

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Friday, October 27th

The EUR/USD pair came under enormously high bearish pressure during last session, having declined to the level of 1.1624, which was last seen in late July, after ECB President M.Draghi announced dovish QE program taper. The ECB reduced QE size by half and simultaneously extended its duration, thus maintaining the same level of stimulus as before and also showing that the Bank intends to retain highly accommodative monetary policy in the near future. In reference to that, Mr. Draghi also added that QE would not stop suddenly, leaving doors opened for further extension of the QE program. This outcome of the ECB meeting highly disappointed the market, forcing the pair to lose nearly 2 cents since yesterday’s highs. Adding to this, the greenback received bullish impetus, increasing its positions across the market, after the House of Representatives passed a budget bill that cleared the way for long-awaited D.Trump tax cuts. Today both data calendars will remain broadly silent, widespread market trend will remain the key driving factor for the pair, as investors are still digesting recent events.

The AUD/USD pair remains the biggest loser of the Asian trading session, extending its downward trajectory into a sixth day today, on the back of increased demand for the US dollar and Australian political drama. Renewed bid tone of the greenback remains the key theme across the FX board, as US President D.Trump’s much-awaited tax reform became one step closer to the final implementation, after the House of Representatives passed the budget blueprint on Thursday. Adding to this, today it became known that the High Court of Australia ruled that Deputy PM Barnaby Joyce has no right to remain in parliament, since he is also a resident of New Zealand. And finally, red numbers of Australian PPI added some extra bearish pressure to the already weak AUD/USD, contributing to pair’s slide to its 3-month lows, marked at 0.7626 level. Looking ahead, today the US economic calendar won’t provide us with any important data releases, so the pair will continue to trace market trend to determine its further direction.

The USD/CAD pair extends its bullish run for the seventh consecutive session, refreshing its 3-month highs at 1.2884 spot, as Loonie is still suffering from the outcome of the BoC meeting. Recall, on Wednesday the Canadian regulator decided to maintain “wait and see” approach to monetary policy, thus having triggered spike of speculations about divergence between monetary policies of the Fed and BoC. Moreover, renewed optimism around the US dollar, triggered by progress over the US President Donald Trump’s tax cut plans, also collaborates with pair’s growth at the end of this working week. On the other side, positive dynamics of oil prices may provide some support to the commodity-linked Loonie, thus stalling pair’s northward rally. Today economic calendars from both neighbouring countries will remain silent, leaving the pair at the mercy of broad market trend and the US dollar price dynamics on Friday.

The GBP/USD pair extends its retreat, having broken through its resistance, located at 1.3100 level, amid renewed optimism around the US dollar. Seems that UK bulls have lost control over the pair, allowing it to lose all its weekly gains, as the US dollar recovered its positive tone across the market. The main reason of increased buying interest around the US dollar remains recent progress over the US President Donald Trump’s tax overhaul plans. Moreover, the pound continues to lose points across the market amid uncertainty over Brexit negotiations, since no progress has been made so far on key Brexit topics. Today both economic calendars lack any market-moving catalysts, so the US dollar price dynamics and widespread market sentiments will continue to navigate the pair during this trading session.

The main events of the day:
Prelim. US GDP – 15.30 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1512 R. 1.1906
USDJPY S. 113.05 R. 114.53
GBPUSD S. 1.3061 R. 1.3329
USDCHF S. 0.9841 R. 1.0047
AUDUSD S. 0.7615 R. 0.7741
NZDUSD S. 0.6790 R. 0.6930
USDCAD S. 1.2744 R. 1.2908

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Thursday, November 16th

The EUR/USD pair remains within its narrow trading range of 1.1780-1.1800, as investors are expecting crucial inflation data from the Eurozone. Seems that the pair is consolidating positions after minor retreat from its monthly highs, marked yesterday in the vicinity of 1.1860, amid renewed risk appetite and expectations of fresh developments regarding the US tax reform. Today, the tax reform plan will be submitted for a vote in the House of Representatives. Leaders of the Republican Party have already expressed their support for the tax bill, which makes possible the implementation of much-awaited tax reforms by the end of this year. Besides the EU numbers and the tax vote, today we have a package of reports from the US economy, featuring Philly Fed manufacturing index and slew of secondary releases, which will help the pair to from its trajectory during the NA session.

The AUD/USD pair remains highly offered so far this week, additionally weighed today by weak Australian job figures. Earlier today, the Aussie failed to extend its correction from its 4-month lows in the pair with its US counterpart, backed by risk-on sentiments on the FX area, and came under renewed selling pressure after Australia published disappointing employment change numbers. Adding to this, today the pair is also suffering from positive moods of the greenback, which are boosted by speculations regarding upcoming US tax reform developments. Today the US economic calendar won’t bring a lot of relevant releases, so the pair will continue to follow broad market trend, while investors’ interest in higher-yielding assets may appear supportive to AUD.

The GBP/USD pair failed to retake its key resistance level of 1.32, and retreated back to the area of 1.3150 amid better sentiments surrounding the US dollar on Thursday. Increased demand for the US dollar remains key determinant across the market in the second half of this week, as markets expect that the US tax bill will pass the vote in the House of Representatives and much-awaited reforms will be implemented by the end of this year. On the other side, latest comments from one of the EU negotiators Guy Verhofstadt, who expects that Brexit talks wouldn’t fail, keep investors confident that both sides will reach a compromise in the negotiations, which in turn appears positive factor for GBP. Looking ahead, now all eyes remain glued to crucial data releases from the UK economy, while upcoming Philly Fed manufacturing index and BoE Governor M.Carney’s speech will keep investors busy during the NA session.

The NZD/USD pair remains one of the weakest assets across the market of this Thursday, having retreated to the area of its multi-week lows, marked earlier this week in the region of 0.6850. The Kiwi prolongs its bearish march for the sixth session in a row, as divergence between monetary policies of the Fed and RBNZ remains key navigator for NZD/USD. Expectations of December Fed rate hike, coupled with uncertainty on the political field of the NZ and downbeat NZ fundamentals, are exerting negative pressure on the pair lately. Moreover, increased demand for the US dollar on the back of hopes that the US tax reform plan will pass the vote in the House of Representatives later today also adds some pressure on the pair today. On the data front, today we have only Philly Fed manufacturing index, which will help the pair to determine its further trajectory, so NZD/USD will continue to keep following broad market trend during this trading session.

The main events of the day:
UK Retail Sales – 11.30 (GMT +2)
EU CPI – 12.00 (GMT +2)
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index – 15.30 (GMT +2)
BoE Governor M.Carney’s Speech – 16.00 (GMT +2)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1735 R. 1.1887
USDJPY S. 111.92 R. 113.96
GBPUSD S. 1.3086 R. 1.3256
USDCHF S. 0.9816 R. 0.9946
AUDUSD S. 0.7539 R. 0.7657
NZDUSD S. 0.6828 R. 0.6942
USDCAD S. 1.2679 R. 1.2831

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Friday, November 17th

The EUR/USD pair failed to sustain its overnight gains and slipped below the level of 1.1800 on the back some minor attempts of the US dollar to correct positions against its main competitors. However, strong sell-off of the US dollar is still navigating the market, so slight retreat of the pair may appear temporary. Broad weakness of the US dollar is mainly attributed to the latest headlines, saying that special counsel Robert Mueller requested President D.Trump’s campaign documents in terms of ongoing investigation of possible US President’s connection with Russia. As for the tax reform, Republicans in the House of Representatives yesterday approved the tax bill, and now it goes to the Senate for consideration. However, the market barely reacted on this positive news, as it was broadly expected and traders have managed to price in this outcome. Now all eyes remain glued to the ECB President M.Draghi’s speech due later in Europe, while the US housing data will also draw some attention in the NA session.

The GBP/USD pair remains top gainer of this trading session, extending its southward rally above the level of 1.3200. Pair’s upward rally is mostly related to broad US dollar weakness, provoked by renewed US political jitters surrounding Russia’s involvement in D.Trump’s election campaign. Adding to this, yesterday’s stronger-than-expected UK retail sales numbers and hawkish comments of the BoE Governor M.Carney, who sees several rate hikes over the next few years if Britain’s economy will keep its growth pace, also contributed to pair’s growth. In absence of any market-moving event from the UK economy, the US dollar dynamics will remain key navigator for the pair, while the US building permits will be able to bring some short-term impetus to the pair during the NA session.

The NZD/USD pair experienced pretty volatile session, however, having returned to the region of its 2-week lows. Earlier, the market reacted aggressively on news, which indicate US President D.Trump’s possible connection with Russia, thereby allowing the pair to correct higher to the 0.6880 area. However, the spike was short-lived and the pair retreated towards its 2-week lows, located in the vicinity of 0.6830, as markets were scared by fresh headlines about new threat from N.Korea, heavily weighing all higher-yielding assets, including the Kiwi. Looking ahead, today we are expecting the US to publish slew of important data from the housing market, while broad weakness of the greenback and risk aversions will continue to influence the pair on the final trading day of the week.

The USD/JPY pair remains under total bearish control, having refreshed its monthly lows at 112.39 spot in Asia. Today broad US dollar weakness is the main underlining theme across the market. The main reason of the US dollar retreat remains ongoing political drama related to possible President Trump’s possible connection with Russia during his election campaign. Adding to this, strong wave of risk aversions also added some negative pressure on the pair this morning on the back of fresh headlines, citing that North Korea is aggressively working on a ballistic missile submarine. In the day ahead, the US economy will publish data from housing market, while the pair will continue to gain sentiments from broadly weakened US dollar.

The main events of the day:
ECB President M.Draghi’s Speech – 10.30 (GMT +2)
US Building Permits – 15.30 (GMT +2)
Canada Core CPI – 15.30 (GMT +2)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1730 R. 1.1818
USDJPY S. 112.44 R. 113.62
GBPUSD S. 1.3105 R. 1.3251
USDCHF S. 0.9855 R. 0.9989
AUDUSD S. 0.7540 R. 0.7632
NZDUSD S. 0.6812 R. 0.6894
USDCAD S. 1.2700 R. 1.2810

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Tuesday, November 21st

The EUR/USD pair consolidates its positions today, within its tight range of 1.1730-50, however, being weighed by developments on the political field of Germany. The Euro continues to receive negative pressure from latest headlines, saying that A.Merkel’s CDU/CSU party failed coalition talks, and now is preparing for re-elections. On the other side, risk negative environment supports the euro as funding currency on the back of ongoing political conflict between the US and N.Korea. Looking ahead, today we have quite light data calendar, with only US existing home sales lined up for release, so any further German political developments and US dollar price dynamics will remain key navigators for the pair during this trading session.

The GBP/USD pair extends its bullish rally, remaining positive for the sixth consecutive session. The pound continues to keep its positions in the area of 3-week highs in the pair with its US peer amid yesterday’s developments regarding Brexit negotiations. On Monday, UK PM T.May finally got Cabinet support and now the UK is ready to double its EU divorce bill offer. On the other side, renewed risk-off trend, triggered by latest comments of the US President D.Trump, calling N.Korea as a state sponsor of terrorism, may limit pair’s further upside. Now all eyes remain glued to the BoE inflation report hearings, which could provide the market with detailed information regarding further BoE’s outlook on inflation. Moreover, the US economy will publish today the existing home sales report, which will grab investors’ attention in the day ahead.

The AUD/USD pair extends its downside trend for the fifth session in a row on the back of dovish RBA minutes. Earlier today, the RBA published its protocols from the last meeting, which didn’t provide any surprise to the market. RBA members showed concerns about consumption growth and wage pressures that accelerated bearish dynamics of the Aussie. Moreover, Bank’s authorities once again stressed the risks associated with higher positions of the Australian dollar. On the other hand, subdue dynamics of the US dollar, seen this morning, could bring some relief to the pair in the session ahead. Now all investors’ attention shifts towards the speech of the RBA Governor Philip Lowe, who might lend additional short-term impetus the pair, while data from the US housing market will keep traders busy during the NA session.

Amazing, Bitcoin continues to surprise markets, having once again refreshed its all-time highs in the pair with its US counterpart at 8300.30 spot. The BTC/USD pair showed quite volatile dynamics for the last month, dropping below the level of 5500 in the first half of this month and then rising to the area of 8000. Recall, recent drawdown of Bitcoin is mostly related to the cancelation of SegWit2x due to lack of community support. However, seems that markets have passed over this news and the cryptocurrency has returned to the trend. By the moment of writing, the BTC/USD pair was trading at 8150.00 level, having slightly corrected lower from its record-breaking highs, while Bitcoin total capitalization was 134 billion US dollar, according to the data, available at coinmarketcap.com.

The main events of the day:
UK Inflation Report Hearings – 12.00 (GMT +2)
US Existing Home Sales – 17.00 (GMT +2)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1666 R. 1.1840
USDJPY S. 111.57 R. 113.23
GBPUSD S. 1.3139 R. 1.3325
USDCHF S. 0.9857 R. 0.9975
AUDUSD S. 0.7525 R. 0.7585
NZDUSD S. 0.6768 R. 0.6860
USDCAD S. 1.2732 R. 1.2864

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Wednesday, November 22nd

The EUR/USD pair extends its recovery trend, as broad retreat of the US dollar remains key driving theme across the market on Wednesday. The main reason of greenback’s weakness remains yesterday’s cautious speech of the Fed Chief J.Yellen, where she noted that the US inflation continues to demonstrate surprisingly low growth pace. Moreover, seems that markets have already passed over recent German political developments, which is another positive factor for the pair. Today the EU data calendar won’t bring us anything important, so the US dollar price dynamics will remain the key determinant for the pair, while important fundamentals from the US and FOMC minutes will grab investors’ attention during the NA session.

The GBP/USD pair remains better bid on Wednesday on the back of broad weakness of the US dollar across the market. Yesterday, the greenback turned negative after the Fed Chair J.Yellen raised doubts over weak US inflation. Moreover, positive news headlines, saying that the EU and UK intend to reach the Brexit deal within 3 weeks, also help the pair to keep its bullish tone today. However, further upside of the pair may appear limited, as investors remain cautious ahead of important events due later today. Now all eyes remain glued to the UK’s Autumn Forecast Statement, which expectedly will be able to bring some impact to the GBP during European trades, while the US durable goods data and FOMC minutes will keep investors busy during the NA session.

The AUD/USD pair eased part of its yesterday’s gains in Asia, however, maintaining positive tone in early Europe. On Tuesday, the pair received notable bullish impetus, following hawkish remarks of the RBA Governor Phillip Lowe. The head of the bank noted that the next move of the RBA in relation to its interest rate might be hawkish if Australian economy continues to improve as expected. However, further upside appeared limited, as ongoing risk-off trend is still weighing on higher-yielding assets, such as the Aussie. On the other hand, weaker sentiments around the US dollar, sparked by cautious comments from the Fed Chair J.Yellen on the inflation outlook, will continue to support the pair in the middle of this week. On the data front, today the US data calendar contains the US durable goods data and FOMC minutes, which will bring fresh trading opportunities during the NA session.

The USD/JPY pair remains highly offered in the middle of the week, keeping its position within striking distance of its monthly lows, touched on Monday near the level of 112. The main reason of pair’s retreat remains broad weakness of the US dollar, as the market is still digesting yesterday’s dovish comments of the Fed Chairwoman J.Yellen on the inflation outlook. Moreover, the yen continues to benefit from persisting risk-off sentiments, which eventually is also adding some negative pressure on the pair lately. Attention now turns towards the US durable goods data and FOMC minutes release for fresh impetus on the USD, which in turn will affect the pair.

The main events of the day:
UK Autumn Budget – 14.30 (GMT +2)
US Core Durable Goods Orders – 15.30 (GMT +2)
US Crude Oil Inventories – 17.30 (GMT +2)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1691 R. 1.1781
USDJPY S. 111.90 R. 112.96
GBPUSD S. 1.3178 R. 1.3296
USDCHF S. 0.9871 R. 0.9967
AUDUSD S. 0.7508 R. 0.7624
NZDUSD S. 0.6767 R. 0.6871
USDCAD S. 1.2699 R. 1.2875

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Friday, November 24th

The EUR/USD pair consolidates its recent bullish rally in the vicinity of 1.1850 level at the last trading session of the week. The pair remains positive for the fourth session in a row, despite attempts of the US dollar to correct after its significant drawdown, triggered by dovish FOMC minutes on Wednesday. The main reason of pair’s positive mood remains the fact that concern about the political situation in Germany was somewhat eased. On the other side, the market barely reacted on yesterday’s ECB minutes, which showed that ECB members are not yet ready to name the exact end date of the QE program. Now immediate focus shifts toward German Ifo business surveys, which will remain the only important release of this day, so the pair will continue to follow broad market trend to determine its further trajectory.

The GBP/USD pair failed to sustain its positions above the level of 1.33 in Asia, having eased part of its weekly gains. The main reason of pair’s retreat remains attempts of the US dollar to correct positions against its main competitors after disappointing FOMC minutes, seen on Wednesday. Adding to this, prevalent risk-off sentiments exert some pressure on the higher-yielding GBP that is also contributing to pair’s retreat. However, further downside of the pair seems limited amid thin market conditions due to Thanksgiving lull on the US market. Looking ahead, today we have pretty quiet trading session, as only secondary data reports will be released from both sides, so the US dollar price dynamics and broad market trend will remain as key driving factors for the pair at the end of this working week.

The USD/JPY pair finally came out of its consolidation phase and stepped away from the region of its 2-month lows, reached on Wednesday near the level of 111.00. Recall, earlier this week the greenback slumped sharply across the board after dovish FOMC minutes showed concerns of Fed members regarding weaker inflation growth pace. However, seems that US bears took a breather today, allowing the dollar to correct higher after its drawdown, eventually exerting support to USD/JPY. On the other hand, further upside looks capped, as better demand for safety and low trading volumes are lending some negative pressure on the pair. Today in absence of any market-moving events, the US dollar dynamics will remain as an exclusive determinant for the pair throughout this trading session.

The NZD/USD pair came under selling pressure at the last trading session of this week, retreating from its weekly highs, marked near the level of 0.6900 on Thursday, after disappointing data, provided by the NZ economy. In early Asia, the NZ published weaker-than-expected trade balance data, which was the main catalyst for pair’s decline. Adding this, broad US dollar correction against its main peers and prevalent risk aversion also contributes to pair’s retreat lately. In the session ahead, the US economy will publish only secondary data reports, which most likely won’t cause any sharp reaction amid investors, so US dollar price actions will act as an exclusive driver for the pair on the last trading day of the week.

The main events of the day:
United States - The Day After Thanksgiving
German Ifo Business Climate Index – 11.00 (GMT +2)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1796 R. 1.1882
USDJPY S. 110.90 R. 111.52
GBPUSD S. 1.3251 R. 1.3363
USDCHF S. 0.9778 R. 0.9844
AUDUSD S. 0.7586 R. 0.7656
NZDUSD S. 0.6847 R. 0.6925
USDCAD S. 1.2652 R. 1.2756

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[EEAnalytics]

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Tuesday, November 28th

The EUR/USD pair came out of its consolidation phase this morning, having dropped below the level of 1.1900 on the back of attempts of the US dollar to extend yesterday’s recovery trend. However, the spike was short-lived and the pair regained its positions above the level of 1.19, as markets remain cautious ahead of the speech of the next Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Investors await that Mr. Powell’s testimony could shed some light on how he intends to run the central bank. On the other side, positive comments regarding possible compromise in German politics help the common currency to keep its upbeat tone, which in turn positively affects the pair. Besides Mr.Powell’s testimony, investors will pay attention to the US CB consumer confidence for fresh trading opportunities during the NA session.

The GBP/USD pair keeps a positive tone on Tuesday, as the US dollar eased pressure on its main competitors. Seems that the market mainly ignored BoE Governor M.Carney’s speech, where he was speaking on potential risks to financial stability associated with Brexit. However, further upside looks limited, as US dollar is still positive and its further attempts to recover positions will negatively affect the pair. Adding to this, renewed concerns surrounding Brexit negotiations, triggered by lack of clarity on the Irish border issue also provide some negative pressure on GBP at the first half of this week. Nothing else is scheduled in the UK data calendar, so the speech of the next Fed Chief J.Powell and the CB’s consumer confident report should grab all the attention later in the NA session.

The NZD/USD pair was top gainer of this Asia, despite US dollar attempts to recovery its positive tone, which was seen during last NA session. Today the pair once again refreshed its 2-week highs at 0.6945 spot, as risk-on sentiments returned to the market. However, further upside of the pair could be limited on the back of attempts of the US dollar to correct its positions after last week events. Adding to this, yesterday’s hawkish Fedspeaks and higher-than-expected data from the US housing market also provide USD with some support, which is another negative factor for the pair. On the data front, today all traders attention will remain focused to the US CB’s consumer confidence data and the Fed Chair Designate Jerome Powell’s confirmation hearing before the Senate Committee, which will help traders to grab some short-term opportunities during the NA session.

The AUD/USD pair was trading without clear direction at the start of European trades amid lack of catalysts and stalled US dollar’s recovery. Yesterday the greenback caught fresh bids following comments by Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan, who reinforced market’s expectations of Fed rate hike by the end of this year, forcing the pair to retreat from its 2-week highs, marked at 0.7644 spot. However, stalled recovery of the US dollar and renewed risk appetite allowed the pair to consolidate its positions in the region of 0.7600-20 during the Asia. Today the US economic calendar contains CB’s consumer confident data and Fed Chair Designate Jerome Powell’s testimony before the Senate Committee, which will help the pair to form its further short-term trend during the NA session.

The main events of the day:
FOMC Member J.Powell’s Speech – 16.45 (GMT +2)
US CB Consumer Confidence – 17.00 (GMT +2)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1852 R. 1.1984
USDJPY S. 110.36 R. 112.04
GBPUSD S. 1.3263 R. 1.3409
USDCHF S. 0.9760 R. 0.9848
AUDUSD S. 0.7562 R. 0.7664
NZDUSD S. 0.6822 R. 0.6970
USDCAD S. 1.2648 R. 1.2830

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Thursday, November 30th

The EUR/USD pair failed to keep positive tone in early Europe and dropped to session lows, marked in the region of 1.1810, despite better-than-expected data reports from German labor market. The main reason of pair’s retreat remains ongoing recovery of the US dollar, which is dominating the market lately. Moreover, seems that markets have already passed over recent positive news from German political field, while sharp drawdown of the euro in the cross with the pound is still weighing the common currency across the boeard. Looking ahead, since the report from the German labor market was the only important data release for today, the broad market sentiments and the US dollar dynamics will remain the key driving factors for the pair during this trading session.

The GBP/USD pair continues to show positive dynamics for the third session in a row, as the pound is still benefiting from the progress, made in Brexit negotiations. Recall, earlier this week the UK PM T.May and EU committee came to a compromise on Brexit deal, however, there haven’t been any official announcements on the Brexit settlement amount yet. Moreover, this news forced the pair to ignore recent negative UK data releases and maintain its positive rally. In the meantime, both economic calendars won’t bring us anything noteworthy, so the noise surrounding Brexit process will continue to drive the pair during this trading session.

The NZD/USD pair remains the weakest asset of Asia on the back of disappointing NZ data. Today the pair received additional bearish impetus, extending its southern rally for the third consecutive session, after New Zealand released negative business confidence numbers, which significantly weighed the Kiwi. Adding to this, ongoing political uncertainty in the NZ remains another bearish factor for the Kiwi, which is driving the pair into the negative territory. On the other hand, the pair managed to stall its retreat following China’s manufacturing sector activity report, which came above market expectations, lending the much-needed respite to NZ bulls. Looking ahead, today the US economic calendar will remain broadly silent, leaving the pair at the mercy of widespread market trend, which will navigate the pair during this session.

The AUD/USD pair broke out of its 4-day losing streak on Thursday on the back of several bullish factors. The pair attracted some buying interest following upbeat Chinese manufacturing and services PMI reports, as China is the biggest Australian business partner. Moreover, better-than-expected data from the Australian housing market also helped the pair to regain its positive tone by the European opening. However, further upside of the pair looks fragile, as softer sentiments on the commodity space, especially surrounding copper, are limiting any additional gains of the commodity-linked Australian dollar. Today the US calendar contains only secondary data reports, which unlikely will attract much attention, so the pair will continue to trace broad market sentiments to determine its further direction during this trading session.

The main events of the day:
German Unemployment Change – 10.55 (GMT +2)
EU prelim. CPI – 12.00 (GMT +2)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1782 R. 1.1916
USDJPY S. 111.00 R. 112.60
GBPUSD S. 1.3284 R. 1.3510
USDCHF S. 0.9793 R. 0.9895
AUDUSD S. 0.7521 R. 0.7631
NZDUSD S. 0.6842 R. 0.6948
USDCAD S. 1.2779 R. 1.2915

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Friday, December 1st

The EUR/USD pair extends its upside trend for the third session in a row, keeping its positions above the level of 1.19 at the last working day of the week. Yesterday the greenback came under fresh selling pressure after the Senate delayed a vote on the highly anticipated US tax cut legislation, which, in turn, had a positive effect on the major currency pair. Moreover, seems that the retreat of the euro in the cross with the pound, caused by optimism surrounding Brexit, eased somewhat that also remains positive factor for the shared currency. Looking ahead, today the US will publish ISM manufacturing PMI report, which will likely hog the limelight during the NA session, while any price actions of the US dollar will remain as the key determinant for the pair during this trading session.

The GBP/USD pair consolidates its positions within striking distance of its 2-month highs, marked earlier today in the region of 1.3550. The pound continues to benefit from market’s expectations of positive outcome of Brexit negotiations. However, recent upside rally of the pair appeared limited in Asian session mostly in absence of any fresh positive news regarding Brexit negotiation. Moreover, broad weakness of the US dollar, which was caused by concerns over the US tax bill, also supports the pair at the end of this week. Now all traders’ attention remains focused on the UK manufacturing PMI for fresh directional impetus, while the US ISM manufacturing PMI report will also be able to bring some trading opportunities during the NA session.

The AUD/USD pair extends its bearish trend at the end of this week, showing negative dynamics for six consecutive days. Currently the pair is consolidating its positions within tight range of 0.7550-70, failing to benefit from subdued price actions of the US dollar. The main reason of pair’s weakness remains China’s Nov Caixin manufacturing PMI data, which came below market’s expectations, lending some negative pressure on the Aussie. However, further retreat of the pair may appear limited, as softer sentiments surrounding the greenback and slightly increased interest amid investors for higher-yielding assets provide some support to the pair. Today the US data calendar will bring us a slew of data releases, featuring ISM Manufacturing PMI report and several secondary tier data releases, while any sharp moves of the US dollar across the market will also be able to influence the pair in the session ahead.

The USD/JPY pair keeps positive traction for the fourth straight session, having refreshed its more than one-week highs at 112.69 spot. The pair remained mostly resilient to broad retreat of the greenback, caused by a delay in voting by the Senate on the highly anticipated US tax reforms. Pair’s recent growth could be mainly explained by renewed risk appetite across the market, which is negatively influencing all safe-haven assets, including the yen. Moreover, bloc of mixed Japanese data, published in Asia, also did little to support the Japanese currency. Later during the NA session, the US will release the ISM correction of the US dollar after yesterday’s drawdown will also be able to influence pair’s dynamics.

The main events of the day:
German Manufacturing PMI – 10.55 (GMT +2)
UK Manufacturing PMI – 11.30 (GMT +2)
Canada Employment Change – 15.30 (GMT +2)
Canada GDP – 15.30 (GMT +2)
US ISM Manufacturing PMI – 17.00 (GMT +2)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1758 R. 1.2004
USDJPY S. 111.40 R. 113.20
GBPUSD S. 1.3348 R. 1.3638
USDCHF S. 0.9778 R. 0.9910
AUDUSD S. 0.7534 R. 0.7610
NZDUSD S. 0.6791 R. 0.6909
USDCAD S. 1.2827 R. 1.2943

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Monday, December 4th

The EUR/USD pair remains under bearish pressure, as optimism around the greenback dominates the market on Monday. Recently the US Senate approved the tax overhaul bill that brings much awaited tax cuts a step closer to their implementation. Moreover, fading uncertainty surrounding US President’s connection with Russia is also offering some support to the greenback. According the latest information, reports about Russia’s involvement in the 2016 presidential election appeared faulty. On the data front, today both economic calendars won’t offer anything interesting, so the pair will keep tracing broad market sentiments and USD price dynamics to determine its further trajectory.

The GBP/USD pair extends its retreat from 2-month highs for the second day in a row, marked near the level of 1.3550, on the back of renewed demand for the US dollar. The greenback appears bid across the market today as the US Senate passed the tax reform bill, making implementation of long awaited tax cuts a step closer to its final goal. However, positive sentiments around Brexit negotiations are still offering support to the pound, limiting pair’s recent retreat, while any further developments in EU-UK talks will remain closely eyed for fresh any impact on the pair. Now all eyes remain glued to the UK Construction PMI, which will be able to provide fresh trading opportunities during the European trading session, while the US data calendar will remain broadly silent, leaving the pair at the mercy of broad market sentiments and the US dollar dynamics.

The NZD/USD pair remains one of the weakest assets of this Asia, moving closer to the region of its weekly lows, marked at 0.6818 spot on Friday. Increased demand for the greenback, backed by US tax reform developments and fading concerns over the US President’s connection with Russia, remains key driving factor across the market, which is lending negative pressure on the pair lately. Moreover, ongoing uncertainty on the political field of the NZ also collaborates with downside trend of the pair. Looking ahead, today we will have pretty quiet data session, as the US economic calendar offers only secondary data reports, which unlikely will attract investors’ attention, so the US dollar price dynamics will continue to navigate the pair throughout this trading session.

Bitcoin continues to set records, having refreshed its all-time highs at 11831.00 vs its US counterpart. Seems that the BTC/USD pair has regained its positive tone after technical correction, seen last week, and now is extending its bullish rally, as interest around the cryptomarket continues to grow. However, further upside rally of Bitcoin may appear capped, as the UK Treasury intends to regulate Bitcoin, concerning about money laundering and tax avoidance. By the moment of writing, Bitcoin’s price was 11460.00 $ and its capitalization increased to the level of 192 billion USD, according to data from coinmarketcap.com.

The main events of the day:
UK Construction PMI – 11.30 (GMT +2)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1806 R. 1.1986
USDJPY S. 110.65 R. 113.63
GBPUSD S. 1.3380 R. 1.3592
USDCHF S. 0.9651 R. 0.9921
AUDUSD S. 0.7512 R. 0.7686
NZDUSD S. 0.6774 R. 0.6966
USDCAD S. 1.2526 R. 1.2978

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