Forex Factory credability in question

The Lobby
1

I joined a thread on FF to do with the FX Weekend GAP My post was:

Trading the GAP is great for me I use it every week. best result is from the GBPAUD, USDCHF & EURUSD. The EA I use trades with consideration of the GAP size and short delay to manage spread and the minimum spread. Here’s a link to where I got it from GAP EA

member “whatfx” replied:

sorry to disappoint you guys, but gap trading doesn’t work in the long run. thats the brutal truth. you can play around and dream all you want. it wont work for you in the long run, short term maybe.

I then replied:

I am not sure what “whatfx” is on about??? GAP strategy does work, maybe his/her strategy is not right. Try GBPAUD it has a great success rate…try this… 25 pip TP and 40pip SL, GAP must be at least 20pip wide and spread must be less than 10pip. Wait for 15 min after open before you enter ie 22:15 London time. do this on the GBPUSD and GBPAUD.

Then whatfx replied:

perhaps you can post some results showing your successes? because with a 25 tp and 40 sl combo you will be in the red. my backtest on gu and ga showed poor results (igindex platform), the time of market open being on a sunday at 9pm gmt. also, the gap is very rarely more than 20 pips!

To my horror I discovered that FF allows the thread starter to disallow people to comment on the thread. What a JOKE!

I did not even have a chance to post my results. Also the last post is not even correct… I think the single brain cell that “whatfx” has did not consider that GAPs are traded with spread variables in the system. I even said that in the first post. hmmm

Well, whatfx! You can keep lying to all the poor people on your thread and you can be lazy and not properly test the suggestions that we selflessly give you. So the “brutal truth” is that GAP trading does work! It just don’t work for the closed minded!

Forum posters please be aware… If someone seems an expert on a forum they may not necessarily be one without the ability to stand up to rigorous debate.

PS here are my results:

Test From June 2010
Trades Wins %
GBP/USD 8 7 87.50%
EUR/USD 13 11 84.60%
USD/JPY 5 4 80%
AUD/USD 9 8 88.80%
USD/CHF 10 9 90%
USD/CAD 9 8 88.80%
GBP/AUD 14 14 100%

Thank you to Babypips for allowing us to vent and bring forward some principles to other forums.

2

Gap trading does work;)
I enter 1/2 hr or so before market open SL is 50 to 100 pips TP is about 2/3 of the gap. I don’t care to much about the spread it comes down once the markets open and get moving. The big stop is because of the high spreads when I open the trades.

3

Good one!.. And it work fairly consistently for you, right?

4

I’ve not joined FF, but I do lurk there, reading the forums as a non-registered guest,

The entertainment value is pretty high;)

The fact IS, there really is no such thing as a gap, because aside from us retailers, there is a 24/7 price feed, and transactions on the weekend that cause price to move.

HOWEVER, when price opens on Sunday, if there is a sizable gap in the retail price feed, there IS a greater tendency for it to close.

Noticing that, and knowing the truth about gaps, I tried an experiment,

If I was going to leave for a while, I would place a vertical, and horizontal cross on price.

When I got back, of course price had moved. If it was significant, I would then trade in the direction of my personal lost time ‘gap’.

If price had a lot of momentum with the move while I was gone, I would not enter, but if it just mildly drifted 20 or 30 pips or so, I would jump in. I didn’t look for a close of the entire move, just a portion.

Play around with the idea some. It was interesting. Coin tossing works too!

It’s just playing the law of probabilities by determining the likelihood of price revisiting areas over and over.

5

I think blaming FF for the conduct of one of its members is completely wrong. Aside from abusive or overt spam like comments, board moderators should allow any relevant opinion. There are many times it is the minority opinion that is right and those posters make valuable contributions. Its not up to FF or BP to decide who is right - that’s everybody’s own decision.

Just for the record, I trade the weekend gaps and made 60+ pips this previous weekend. I usually make 100+ per month.

6

I think you have missed the point that [I]tricky1on1[/I] was making. He wasn’t blaming FF for the content of the thread, or for the content of any particular post.

[B]He was criticizing FF for allowing thread-starters to delete posts that they don’t agree with.[/B]

[I]tricky1on1[/I] also had a lot of criticism for the individual who started that thread. But, that was a different issue entirely.

7

Hmm… the thread is titled FF credibility in question - I think that is way too strong a criticism.

I like the idea of thread starters having discretion over the contents of their threads - it helps keep things on topic. Most thread starters are solid, dependable people who don’t abuse their privileges. The minority who do get found out and ignored.

8

here a BP there is something similar but doesn’t go quite that far. A thread starter can put someone on ignore and then that person can’t post on the thread.

9

Agreed to a point. When some (Honorary) members are allowed to break the code of conduct while others aren’t, it IS the fault of the site owner. :mad:

Agreed. :wink:

Agreed. Just don’t try telling that to certain members. :mad:

10

To quote you from another thread…

In the last year, I have seen newbs, and Honorary postoramas banned equally.

If you break the rules, you are on no more sure footing with that Honorary title, than you are if it says “newbie” under your name.

Lurking at FF shows me it’s no better there. In fact it may be worse. Senior members have the ability to stifle whatever junior poster they choose. For the most part it’s warranted, but more than occasionally the privilege is abused.

If you feel that this place is unfair, why the frequent trips back?

12

Sorry I didn’t see this sooner. Most traders trade in solitude. Most traders don’t have many friends who are traders. Forums are a place to meet people who share the same interest. There is plenty of space for each trader to share their views without stepping on toes. Unfortunately, there are those who try to hog the stage. Anyone who looks like they are getting some attention with something the stage hogs don’t like, can’t do themselves or don’t understand becomes a target. Getting banned for posting a chart in a trading forum seems ridiculous to me just because someone doesn’t like the coder of the indicator. Many wrongs have been done under the guise of protecting newbies.

13

Agreed.

Human nature is very ego driven. I’ve noticed, and occasionally been victim of cyber bullying on everything from beer tasting sites, to golf sites. The luxury of anonymity makes it easy for people to bark, crow, and paint themselves as something they aren’t but would like to be. Forex sites are no different. Trying to decipher intentions in text is hard. An innocent comment such as, “I don’t like that method”, is misconstrued, and taken as a derogatory to whomever posted the method that wasn’t liked. Not liking something only means it wasn’t preferred by the poster that didn’t like it. Not a call to battle because of a conflict of ideals. Most people aren’t articulate enough in text to have a reader discern a difference.

Forex for some reason seems to be EXTREMELY polarizing. It’s almost religious in nature. You’re either a price action Catholic, or indicator reading Protestant. Speaking personally, I’ve learned a lot from the more experienced in both camps. But they are hard to find;)

14

My first trading strategy. Oh the memory of those days now I need a drink lol