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haha, you like to trade, you’re loving it with your demo account. you just want to be convinced! good move though. but fx trading is just like any other trade. buy low in season sell high off season. man, just enroll at school of pipsology and GRADUATE.
Really? Another one of these threads/posts about your roulette theory?
I’ve never won 10 times in a row in roulette… Let alone 20 or more…
Nope, not like roulette.
If you spent as much time studying it as you do comparing it to gambling, you may get over the feeling it’s a chance game.
Forex behaviour is human behaviour, and human behaviour is nothing like roulette. If technically speaking that forex is like roulette and it’s equal trades both ways…shouldn’t the price on the longest time frame appear be a straight line?
I have played roulette and I have traded Forex I can assure you they have nothing in common unless you have learned nothing about forex and are opening trade positions purely at random, only then is forex like roulette.
forex is more like poker than roulette. It’s a game of skill
Word, you can’t control the odds but you can control the Risk/Reward which is just like poker.
[B]pjeziorski [/B]has been grumbling about forex being roulette for some time now!!
[B]Why is he on this forum? [/B] 
His statement is, of course, a load of rubbish - but he will not listen …[B]and is fast becoming a troll. :mad:[/B]
Here is a repeat of my post in my thread…
http://forums.babypips.com/newbie-island/32400-finest-trend-trading.html
[B][U]The Question[/U][/B] : Is Forex gambling?
[B][U]Answer [/U][/B]NO
[B]I will offer proof below…[/B]
I suggest 3 criteria for gambling (you will be able to think of more)
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There are no goods or services produced - money changes hands only.
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One person’s gain is another person’s loss.
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Every trial or bet is an independent event and cannot be predicted by pasts bets or trials.
[B]Lets look at a few cases…
OPENING A BUSINESS[/B]
- Goods or services are produced.
- No person looses.
- If the business is sold and has a good history (goodwill), then there is good reason to believe the new owner will prosper - the events are not independent.
Therefore - not gambling.
[B]GOING FROM YOU HOUSE TO YOUR LETTERBOX.[/B]
(This walk could be dangerous - lightning could hit you, a big dog could eat you, you may be attacked, heart attack possibility).
- A service is provided.
- No one looses while you check your letterbox.
- The possibility of these dangerous things happening is so small as to be negligible.
[B]ROULETTE[/B]
- True.
- True.
- True - people are forever trying to develp systems to beat the wheel but it does not require an extensive mathematical background to look at the 37/38 identically sized spaces on a roulette wheel (note the 35-1 payoff on a single number) to conclude that the game is umbeatable.
With a 1/38 chance of winning a single number bet and a 35-1 payoff it is easy to calculate the negative expectancy of -5.26.
However, this does not stop huxters from selling systems to gullible people.
The only method that does win is to use visual ballistics, that is, [U]visual tracking.[/U]
This involves looking at the wheel when it is spun and predicting the correct number by using a method based on the mathematical formulas of kinematics.
You then bet late into the spin.
It is a secret method and highly successful.
You only have to get one prediction in 35 correct to break even.
I usually get it correct about 1 in 7 or 1 in 15.
Sometimes I have been able to get 2 predictions in a row correct.
This, of course, means that you have a substancial edge over the casino.
If you want to know more, here is a hyperlink…
AdvantagePlayer.com: Roulette - Hosted by Laurence Scott
I have used this method and been very successful with it but not with real money because I believe gambling is sinful.
[B]FOREX[/B]
- A service is produced. Read the following thread…
http://forums.babypips.com/forextown/20778-ethics-question.html
Quote:
[B]Rhodytrader [/B]says…
You do realize, right, that the forex market is the basis for global trade? When you participate in it you contribute to the liquidity of the market for the exchange of currencies which is fundamental to the flow of goods and services around the world.
Quote:
[B]Clint [/B]in his very excellent and authoritative post says…
Speculators, for their part, provide a vital service to the commercial interests by providing ample, round-the-clock liquidity to the forex market, and by assuming currency-risk which the commercial interests choose to shed.
-
According to the above, not everyone is losing when someone else gains.
However, traders such as Clint himself, can correct me on that. -
The price action is not independent of other price actions.
The price of today is directly dependent on what it was yesterday.
This is true for every timeframe and is rather obvious.
[B]So…according to this
Forex is not gambling!! [/B]
Well Tymen I really don’t agree with your reasoning on this, I do agree forex is not roulette but I say your reasoning has not proved forex is not gambling, you give three criteria for gambling
- service not produced
- One persons gain is another persons loss
- Every trial is independant and cannot be predicted by previous trials.
Why I say these criteria do not differentiate between forex and gambling, in fact they go a long way to proving forex is the same thing as gambling.
-
If (as it says on the thread your link points to) the service forex trading produces is forex contributes to the liquidity of the market, gambling likewise contributes to the liquidity of the casino, or bookmaker.
-
One persons gain is anothers loss. This point is disputed in forex, some say forex is a zero sum game, so if one gains another must lose others say this is not true, I would say the debate is still open on this point.
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Every trial is independant and cannot be predicted by previous trials.
In forex you can use previous charts to predict future outcomes. In many forms of gambling, previous trials can also be used to predict future outcomes, in blackjack you can count cards, in sports gambling you can bet on horses, dogs, football games, etc all based on previous performace of the relevent animal, jockey or team.
Therefore I would say if those criteria define gambling, forex is almost certainly gambling. I have tried to think of a criteria that would include the usual forms of gambling while excluding forex therefore proving there is a difference and I can’t think of any.
You are playing with words here!! 
The liquidity you speak of is just in house.
Anyway, a casino deals in cash.
[B]This is just baloney!![/B]
In forex you can use previous charts to predict future outcomes.
[B]This is blatantly incorrect!![/B]
You cannot predict anything.
The market will go where it wants to!!
What we do in forex (or equities etc) is to determine a [B][U]probability [/U][/B]of the price action going in a certain direction.
This [B][U]probability [/U][/B]is based on previous data.
Using techinical analysis, we determine that the [B][U]probability [/U][/B]is highest in a certain direction, then we trade in that direction.
In many forms of gambling, previous trials can also be used to predict future outcomes, in blackjack you can count cards, in sports gambling you can bet on horses, dogs, football games, etc all based on previous performace of the relevent animal, jockey or team.
[B]The correlation here is so weak that it can be counted as random.[/B]
In any case, a service is not being provided.
Therefore I would say if those criteria define gambling, forex is almost certainly gambling. [/QUOTE]
If one of the 3 criteria that I gave is violated, then forex is not gambling.
Forex …
-
Provides a risk and liquidity service.
-
I will not comment on the zero sum game - this needs more informed people than me to comment.
-
The price action of forex is interdependent - not random.
[B]We have at least 2 violations - forex is not gambling!![/B]
[B]Finally, if you disagree with this - then what are you doing on this forum?[/B]
I also believe it is a form of gambling, we are speculating with a certain amount of risk involved.We are not opening a cd account with a predetermined amount givin in a period of time guaranteed by a institution.
With that being said Life is a gamble going to the mailbox your chances might be 78 billion to one of something happening,but your willing to take the risk.
Dictionary
Risk: 1.The possibility of loss or danger.
Gamble:1.To bet money on a game of chance.
2.To play a game of chance.
3.To risk
I dont beleive it is always a zero sum game.Case in point AIG is breaking up divisions, one in Asia.The division was bought out by a British company for 35 billion a portion of which is cash.(British pound)The currency got hammered that day on the news.This money will sooner or later will have to pass into the Asian market.I hope iam on the platform for the move.
You are not contributing anything useful to the aims of the Babypips forum with your ranting and raving!!
That is probably within the definition of a troll.
If you really and truely believe what you say - that forex is gambling, then you need to exit this forum promptly and not return.
If you stay here and continue to rant, then you are proving only one thing - that you are a hypocrite!!
[B]We are in the business of making money and I really have no further time to waste with you. [/B]:mad:
This is so sad. You know that FX is not like roulette but you want some one else to prove it to you. How ? by giving you a way that you can make money without the effort on your part. There is no holy grail. What works for one trader will not necessarily replicate for another. There is no short cut to success. There are many successful traders here who share their knowledge freely but none that need to share specific details. If you want to suceed in FX then attend to your education, if not, then you have far to much free time that could be spent more productively
I agree entirely that the game is constructed to take your money, its a negative expectancy game. The other interesting point is that markets often appear to move in order to cause the greatest amount of financial damage to the gretest number of market participants.
The idea of realistically making a million dollars from $1000 over the short term is extremely unlikely, and anyone who seriously believes that it is possible is definately deluded.
However, markets behave predictably, and they move within ridgid statistical boundaries, and with repeating patterns. Returns of an order of magnitude above those offered by a bank are achievable if your prepred to put in some work.
Although forex trading is probably the best long term business opportunity that I’ve encountered, it certainly isnt the most appropriate vehicle if your aim is to make substantial returns from practically zero in the shortest posible timeframe, conventional business will get you there MUCH faster.
Yeah forex is like a casino I agree, and I’m the casino owner muahaha 
A casino’s business model is based on multiple small wins, offset by the occassional large loss. I’d argue that due to the basic properties of financial markets, inexperienced traders tend to fail by adopting the same approach, and that they succeed at the point when they realise that they need to adopt the complete opposite model !
Applying money management or a staking plan wont work if you apply it to a negative expectancy system.
You need to fnd and exploit an edge, and you wont get that by reading a forum, it takes hard work
Hi there,
I totally agree, if you did the school on this site, you would not say that forex is a casino.
I spent the last year trying to beat the game of Baccarat. I spent endless hours testing methods, strategies, analysing, finding the Holy grail to beat baccarat.
I can not. I can increase my chances of winning, but can not beat it.
However I would not say that from the point of forex is useless what I learnt in that past year.
There is a money management method, what I can think of using in Forex, called Pluscoup progression, for pip loss recovery.
I write it here and tell me if it is stupidity.
You set up stop loss for the trade let say 30 pips per trade. In a raw you make 5 losses, so on your extremly bad day, you made a 150 pips loss.
comparing to casino, 1 unit bet is 30 pips, the maximum you can lose
you flatbet with 1 unit till you win, it means you set up trades with 30 pips stop loss, you won the trade the sixth one(previous five loss)
so you are in whatever loss, the big advantage that in forex the payout ratio is not like in baccarat 2:1, but can be 5:1 or whatever, so you can make back more pips with one good trade
For the simplicity I use 2:1 ratio for winning trades.
So your loss after 5 loss and the 6 wins is 120 pips.
Whaw you won, so your next bet, your next trade would be 2 units with 30 pips loss, assume that you won the trade, then you made back 60 pips, so your loss is now 60 pips, next bet trade is 3 units with stop loss 30 pips, you won it , you made back 90 pips, which wipes out the 60, and leaves you with 30 pips profit…
Your odds are making back the loss is much higher, because the ratio of payout for the trade can be 4:1 instead of 2:1,
Summary: 5 lost trades in a row, 3 won trades in a row, your pips are back
The pluscoup progression was very useful in loss management in casino, I will need to test it with trades.
What loss recovery systems do you use in Forex?
Bambura
Ps forgot to tell,
that political news, oil prices will not influence my baccarat table or roulette wheel, and they will not give you 500:1 leverage to your original bankroll, and can not check the USDX, or plenty of indicators to establish a trend, nor can turn to other resources to confirm your predictions…so forex is not casino…
that can be approached with chaos theory, randomness and so on…
an idea for you beat the randomness of roulette, with a random betting pattern
write on a piece of paper all three combination of red and black RRR,BBB etc
shuffle your cards, and use a 1 2 4 martingale…sorry this is not the forum for this, but i think forex is a nicely organized market which we know that reacts on
certain things with a predictable effect, and definetly not a roulette wheel…
Bambura
If one of the 3 criteria that I gave is violated, then forex is not gambling.
Forex …
-
Provides a risk and liquidity service.
-
I will not comment on the zero sum game - this needs more informed people than me to comment.
-
The price action of forex is interdependent - not random.
[B]We have at least 2 violations - forex is not gambling!![/B]
[B]Finally, if you disagree with this - then what are you doing on this forum?[/B] :([/QUOTE]
Damn Tymen your very quick to start ranting when someone disagrees with you why is this can you not discuss a subject without getting bent out of shape if everyone does not think you are always right ?
But anyway I’m not playing with words at all how am I playing with words ? I’m simply saying that your criteria didnt distinguish forex from gambling.
If you want an example of playing with words that thread you linked to which claims to prove forex trading produces a service is playing with words, its a case of people wanting to imagine forex is something different to gambling because gambling doesnt sound very proffessional so they try to create loopholes and getouts that makes it something different,
I didnt make an issue out of you saying forex trading produces a service but in fact forex is only a service when are a customer who has dollars but needs euros because you are going on vacation in europe or you are a businessman who needs to Japanese Yen because you have a contract in japan. Those people do not care about the exchange rate they just need the foreign currency at that time and pay the going rate.
We do not exchange money using the forex market becasue we need that other currency therefore we are not using the forex service for what is was intended for.
We are gambling on the price action of the forex market which is caused by the money movements of the people who are using its service for what is intended for.
Another example, if you take your car in to the carwash because the car needs to be washed you are using the car wash service as it was intended to be used.
If you repeatedly drive through the car wash over and over becuase you are gambling with your buddys on what color the car that pulls in behind you will be, you are no longer purely a customer using the car wash service, you are now using the outcomes of the carwash to gamble on.