Happy Thursday everyone,
Forex Market Commentary
14/3/2019
GBPUSD
The British Pound rose strongly on Wednesday, closing at 1.3317(+254 pips). Catalyst for the strong pound for yesterday was due to the MP’s vote down on a no deal Brexit. Today’s action in British Parliament focused on the possibility of the United Kingdom departing the European Union without a Brexit deal. MPs voted on Caroline Spelman’s Amendment A and Damian Green’s Amendment F aiming to tailor the Prime Minister’s Brexit Withdrawal Agreement. PM Theresa May’s decisive defeat yesterday when the second meaningful vote failed to garner enough support to pass her renegotiated Brexit deal brought about today’s votes. Amendment A, which narrowly passed with 312 votes in favor and 308 against, rejects the UK leaving the EU without a Withdrawal Agreement and a Framework for the Future Relationship. On the other hand, Amendment F was voted down with 374 ‘noes’ and 164 ‘ayes’ which would have pushed for a 21-month transition period for the UK to prepare for a no-deal Brexit. UK PM spoke after the votes and mentioned that the options remain the same as before, including a “damaging” second referendum. At the same time, the media is reporting of resignations at the cabinet.
https://www.aetoscg.com/en-au/market-commentary.html
15/3/2019
Forex Market Commentary
AUDUSD
The Aussie fell on Thursday, closing at 0.7066 (-19 pips) against the greenback. After opening the session at .7093, the AUD/USD reduced lower in Asian trade, adding to losses in the second half of the session from the announcement of Chinese industrial output, fixed asset investment and retail sales data that was either in line or slightly below market expectations. Reports that US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping were unlikely to sign off on a trade deal in the near-term also weighed on the Aussie, seeing the AUD/USD fall to as low as .7042 before gradually recovering in late European and North American trade.“Reports that a Trump-Xi meeting might not take place at least until late April, but which could be expanded to a full state visit rather than just a photo-op to sign a trade deal, were greeted with some disappointment,” said Ray Attrill, Head of FX Strategy at the National Australia Bank. “Since then, US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin has been out on CNBC confirming that there will be no Trump-Xi meeting this month at least but that he is pleased with progress on trade talks.” The latter comments, along with remarks from Donald Trump that the US is “getting what we have to get” and getting it “relatively quickly” in relation to trade negotiations, may explain the Aussie’s modest recovery towards the close. Turning to the day ahead, it looks set to be a quiet session for markets with little on the economic calendar to speak of. There’s no data released in Australia. Elsewhere, Chinese new home prices is the only major release scheduled in Asia.
https://www.aetoscg.com/en-au/market-commentary.html
18/3/2019
Happy Monday everybody.
Forex Market Commentary
AUDUSD
The Aussie rode modestly on Friday, closing at 0.7084(+17 pips) against the greenback. Most of the uplift in the AUD/USD on Friday occurred as Chinese markets opened, seeing the AUD/USD rise back towards the .7100 level as reports emerged that officials from the US and China had made “substantive progress on trade talks” in recent weeks. That news, helping to lift risk appetite among investors, helped to keep the AUD/USD supported on dips during the session. Mixed US economic data also helped the Aussie’s cause, seeing US bond yields and the greenback pullback a touch. In terms of domestic economic conditions in Australia, traditionally March is a seasonally strong month for Australia’s housing market, 2019 is different. While auction clearance rates have lifted from record lows struck late last year, they remain well below the levels of a year ago. Those weekly declines extended the price falls in Sydney and Melbourne since the start of the month to 0.6% and 0.5% respectively. Prices have also fallen 0.2% in Brisbane and Adelaide since the end of February. Mirroring the weekly result, prices in Perth have been flat so far in March.
https://www.aetoscg.com/en-au/market-commentary.html
Forex Market Commentary
19/3/2019
EURUSD
The Euro closed higher yesterday, closing at 1.1336(+17 pips) against the greenback. It was a relatively quiet start of the week for the FX market, with a scarce macroeconomic calendar exacerbated by low trading volumes. The EUR/USD pair, however, managed to advance to a fresh 2-week high of 1.3358 amid persistent dollar’s weakness in a sort of optimist financial environment. Equities surged in Asia, leading to a positive opening in Europe, while US Treasury yields remained near yearly lows. The positive mood eased ahead of Wall Street’s opening, with US indexes unable to post gains, struggling around their opening levels for most of the session. No macroeconomic releases were coming from the Union, while the US just unveiled the NAHB Housing Market Index for March, which matched its previous reading with 62, missing the market’s expectations of 63. The world, once again, gyrated around Brexit, as news that UK Commons’ speaker Bercow said that there wouldn’t be a third vote on May’s deal unless it brings some changes. This Tuesday, Germany will release the ZEW survey on Economic Sentiment, seen improving modestly in March. The prevision for the country is -11.3 vs. the previous -13.4, while for the whole Union, the sentiment is seen deteriorating to -18.7 vs. -16.6 in February. The US macroeconomic calendar will have nothing relevant to offer, with tension mounting ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting next Wednesday. The Euro will likely garner some attention from currency traders with the latest reading on economic sentiment. If the report is perceived by markets as positive, EURUSD may continue its recovery back to the upside. Alternatively, further deterioration of economic sentiment in the Eurozone could put renewed pressure on the bloc’s currency.
https://www.aetoscg.com/en-au/market-commentary.html
Forex Market Commentary
20/3/2019
The Aussie fell by a margin on Tuesday, closing at 0.7086(-12 pips) against the greenback. Main catalyst for the fall was due to renewed concern about trade talks between the United States and China. After doing little in both Asian and European trade, the bulk of the Aussie’s move on Tuesday came late in the session, driven by a report from Bloomberg that Chinese officials are pushing back against US demands in trade talks. The report weighed on risk assets, including the Aussie dollar which has been highly sensitive to shifts in sentiment towards trade negotiations over recent months.“We are not too bothered by the news [given] it is normal negotiating behaviour,” said Joseph Capurso, Senior Currency Strategist at the Commonwealth Bank. “The negotiations could drag on for months and cap gains in Aussie dollar.” A separate report from the Wall Street Journal that trade talks between the two sides will resume next week in an attempt to strike a deal was largely overlooked by markets. Turning to the day ahead, the main event of interest will be the release of the US Fed’s interest rate decision, along with the FOMC’s latest economic forecasts. There’ll be plenty of attention on the FOMC’s dot plot for year-end and long-run Fed funds rate projections, along with any commentary on the outlook for the Fed’s balance sheet. The dot plot is widely expected to show a slower or no further policy tightening based compared to what was offered in December. The decision will arrive at 5am AEDT on Thursday morning, followed by a press conference from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Before that key event arrives, other highlights today include a speech from RBA Assistant Governor Michelle Bullock at 11am AEDT. “[There’s] no tittle offered on the RBA website, but the invite in the event’s website has a rather punchy title of ‘Is it crunch time? The housing credit squeeze in a post royal commission economy?’,” said Catril at the NAB. If that is the topic of Bullock’s speech, it will receive plenty of attention given the housing market is one key area of uncertainty facing policymakers at the RBA.
https://www.aetoscg.com/en-au/market-commentary.html
Forex Market Commentary
26/3/2019
AUDUSD
The Aussie rose on Monday, closing at 0.7111(+31 pips) against the greenback. The commodity pair trimmed Friday’s losses and settled a couple of pips above the 0.7100 figure, surging during the Asian session on comments from the Chinese premier Li Keqiang, who said that China had the ability to resist downward pressure on the economy to provide additional support to the currency, bringing relief to the Aussie. A strong advance in gold prices, with spot trading at fresh 1-month highs in the 1,322.00 area, also backed the commodity-linked currency. Australia didn’t publish macroeconomic data at the beginning of the week, and for this Tuesday, the only event scheduled is a speech from RBA’s Ellis. The pair advanced within range, stalling around a critical figure that so far can’t clearly break. The short term picture suggests that bulls’ conviction has already begun easing as, despite the price is now above all of its moving averages, technical indicators are losing upward momentum, with the RSI now gyrating south at around 53. The downside potential will remain limited as long as the price holds above 0.7055, the level to break to open doors for a steeper slide.
https://www.aetoscg.com/en-au/market-commentary.html
Forex Market Commentary
27/3/2019
EURUSD
The Euro weakened and closed lower on Tuesday, closing at 1.1274(-39 pips) against the greenback. The most traded pair trimmed lower on Tuesday, despite the dollar, and in general safe-haven assets, were off investors’ radar. The Euro attempted a rally that was contained by a selling interest around weekly highs, also by worse-than-expected German data, as the IFO Consumer Confidence Survey for April came in at 10.4, missing the market’s expectations, while March reading was downwardly revised to 10.7 from 10.8. The decline was moderated by mixed US data, as, in February, Housing Starts, fell by 8.7% when compared to the previous month, much better than the -28.3% expected. Building Permits in the same month decreased by 1.6%, worse than the market’s forecast of -0.6%. January readings for both were revised lower. The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index printed 10 in March, down from the previous 16 and the expected 12, while the CB Consumer Confidence Index unexpectedly dropped to 124.1 points in March from 131.4 in February, with the subcomponents of current situation and expectations both sharply down, reflecting arising concerns about a possible recession in the US. ECB’s Mario Draghi is scheduled to speak this Wednesday(18:00 AEDT), alongside a couple of other central bank representatives, although no surprises about the future of monetary policy are expected. The US will release the January Trade Balance with the deficit foreseen at $57.0B, better than the previous one at $59.8B.
https://www.aetoscg.com/en-au/market-commentary.html
Forex Market Commentary
28/3/2019
AUDUSD
The Aussie fell heavily on Wednesday, closing at 0.7089(-47 pips) against the greenback. The Aussie were dragged lower due to the dovish commentary from the neighboring New Zealand’s central bank indicating that it may cut interest rates again.“Given the weaker global economic outlook and reduced momentum in domestic spending, the more likely direction of our next overnight cash rate (OCR) move is down,” the RBNZ said in the statement. While the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) still holds a neutral bias on the outlook for interest rates, the dovish shift from the RBNZ increased speculation that the RBA may soon follow suit. Like New Zealand, that saw markets move to price in nearly 50 basis points of rate cuts from the RBA in the coming years, dragging down Australian government bond yields along with the Australian dollar. Along with the dovish shift from the RBNZ, news that Chinese industrial profits fell at the sharpest annual pace since at least 2011 early this year also did little to help the Aussie’s cause. Combined with modest weakness in European and North American stocks, along with most commodities, the soggy mood saw the AUD/USD slide to as low as .7069 before bouncing slightly towards the close. Today, trades will be focusing on the US initial jobless claim which follows with their GDP Growth rate for Q4.
https://www.aetoscg.com/en-au/market-commentary.html
Forex Market Commentary
29/3/2019
AUDUSD
The Aussie fell by a margin on Thursday, closing at 0.7080(- 2 pips) against the greenback. The commodity currency had a quiet session on Thursday, lifting modestly during the Asian and European trade before giving back ground in the later sessions. After beginning the session at .7084, the AUD/USD lifted to as high as .7106 in European trade, helped in part by reports earlier in the session about further progress in trade negations between China and the United States. However, that move was reversed over the course of North American trade as the US dollar strengthened, perhaps helped by a modest lift in US bond yields after falling heavily a session earlier. The rebound in the greenback and US bond yields came despite news that US Q4 GDP was revised down to show an annualized increase of 2.2%, down from the prior estimate of 2.6% and 2.4% level expected. In Australia, the RBA will release private sector credit figures for February at 11.30am AEDT. All interest will be on the housing component, not only because it has been very weak recently but also because it tends to lead movements in home prices by around six months.
https://www.aetoscg.com/en-au/market-commentary.html
Forex Market Commentary
1/4/2019
AUDUSD
The Australian dollar rose on Friday, closing at 0.7096(+15 pips). The Australian dollar surged upon the resumption of trade on Monday, supported by better-than-expected Chinese economic data released over the weekend. After closing last week at .7094, the AUD/USD rose to as high as .7129, helped by a rebound in China’s official manufacturing PMI to 50.5 in March. Markets had been expecting a smaller increase to 49.5 following a 49.2 reading in February. A far slower deterioration in activity levels at small and medium-sized manufacturing firms, along with stronger growth in new domestic orders, was largely responsible for the improvement seen from February. Separately, activity levels across China’s non-manufacturing sectors improved at a faster rate in March, helped in part by a strong lift in construction activity.“This is the first month in four that Chinese manufacturing activity has returned to growth and suggests a read through of Chinese macro policy growth support beginning to flow through into the economy,” said David de Garis, Economist at the National Australia Bank.“After markets closed with something of a risk on tone at the end of last week, the China PMIs for March seem to have added a little more to that mood, helped along with positive mood music around the continuing US-China trade talks.” On Friday, Xinhua, a Beijing based official newswire, reported that Chinese and US negotiators had made “new progress” towards a trade agreement after a series of meetings in Beijing. For the economic events that’s scheduled for this week, it looks to be a busy first half of the week for the Aussie pair- Manufacturing figures, business confidence, and new home sales are due out at the start of the week. Concerns over the housing sector will leave the Aussie Dollar sensitive to the full suite of stats that precede Tuesday’s RBA monetary policy decision. While the RBA is expected to hold rates steady, there is an expectation that the RBA will take a more dovish stance. The housing sector in itself will be a material concern, with bank NPLs a major stress point following some questionable lending standards in recent years. Post RBA, retail sales and trade data on Wednesday will also have a material impact on the Aussie.
https://www.aetoscg.com/en-au/market-commentary.html
Forex Market Commentary
2/4/2019
EURUSD
The Euro weakened further on Monday, closing at 1.1205(-18 pips) against the greenback. The EUR/USD pair finishes Monday at daily lows around 1.1198, as the dollar gathered momentum in the last trading session of the day compliments to better-than-expected US data, in opposition to EU one that missed the market’s forecast. The good mood prevailed, with equities up throughout the day on the back of encouraging Chinese data released during the weekend, and rising US Treasury yields, but for the shared currency, more signs of economic slowdown weighed more. According to the official releases, EU March preliminary inflation was slightly below expected, up by 1.4% YoY in the month vs. 1.5% previously. Core CPI printed 0.8%, missing the market’s forecast of 0.9% and below the previous 1.0%. Also, the final versions of the Markit Manufacturing PMI for the same month suffered downward revisions, with the German index down to 44.1, its lowest since mid-2012. For the whole EU, the manufacturing index was downwardly revised to 47.5. The pair retreated to the 1.1230 price zone, where it consolidated ahead of US data. The US Markit Manufacturing PMI suffered a strong downward revision, from 52.6 to 50.5, but the official ISM index surged to 55.3 surpassing the expected 54.5 and above the previous 54.2. Also, Construction Spending rose by 1.0% in February, surpassing the market’s expectations. Dollar’s rally, however, was contained by poor February Retail Sales, which unexpectedly fell by 0.2% MoM. This Tuesday, it will be the turn for the EU to release February PPI at 20:00 AEDT, seen up by 0.1% MoM and by 3.1% YoY, although following CPI numbers the impact it could have will be even lower than usual. The US, on the other hand, will release Durable Goods Orders for February, seen falling by 1.8% after January reading was downwardly revised 0.3%. Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft are expected flat after a 0.8% advance in the previous month.
https://www.aetoscg.com/en-au/market-commentary.html
Forex Market Commentary
3/4/2019
AUDUSD
The Australian dollar fell on Tuesday, closing at 0.7064 (-45 pips). The Reserve Bank of Australia announced its decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 1.50 percent with added dovish language which has put downward pressure on AUDUSD throughout today’s session. However, the move lower in AUDUSD could be exaggerated when considering the muted reaction in Australian OIS interest rate probabilities after the RBA released its latest monetary policy statement. Further dovishness by the RBA could have been interpreted from the shift in language from keeping rates ‘unchanged which is consistent with sustainable growth’ last month to ‘setting policy to support sustainable growth in the economy’ today. Moreover, the RBA’s statement added that “growth has slowed and downside risks have increased.” Although, Australia’s labor market remains strong with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.9 percent – the lowest reading since June 2011 – which has led to an uptick in wage growth. Also, Australian building permit data shattered expectations today with a reading of 19.1 percent month-over-month growth in February compared to estimates of -1.8 percent. For today, Aussie traders will turn their attention to the Balance of Trade data release, scheduled to be out at 11:30 AEDT.
https://www.aetoscg.com/en-au/market-commentary.html
Forex Market Commentary 08/04/2019
AUDUSD
The Australian dollar fell on Friday, closing at 0.7105(-3 pips) against the greenback. The Aussie was relatively flat towards the end of the week, trading has been stuck in a narrow range between 0.7000 and 0.7200 over the course of two months. Despite the release of the US non farm payroll for March on Friday, the Aussie made minimal movements. Payrolls increased by 196,000, above the 177,000 level expected, leaving the unemployment rate steady at 3.8%. However, hourly wages growth undershot forecasts for an increase of 0.3%, lifting by just 0.1% from a month earlier. Despite the wages undershoot, the US dollar regained its poise late in the session, seeing the AUD/USD fall back to close at .7105. Even with investor risk appetite now far stronger than earlier in the year, and despite firmer commodity prices, the Aussie dollar remains stuck in a thin trading range, largely due to widespread expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates later in the year. Pointing to another quiet session to begin the week, there’s little on the economic or events calendar on Monday that appears likely to shake the Aussie dollar from its slumber. Locally, ANZ Bank will release its monthly job ads survey at 11.30am AEST. Although not a noted market-mover, with the RBA’s interest in local labour market data now elevated, a surprise result in either direction could result in some modest volatility in the Aussie.
https://www.aetoscg.com/en-au/market-commentary.html
Forex Market Commentary
9/4/2019
AUDUSD
The Australian dollar rose on Monday, closing at 0.7121(-22 pips) against the greenback. The Australian dollar rose against most major currency pairs on Monday, helped by firmer commodity prices and broad-based US dollar weakness. After finishing at .7105 on Friday last week, the AUD/USD rose to as high as .7131 during the session before eventually closing at .7126. Modest gains were also seen across all other major pairs except the Canadian dollar which benefited from crude oil prices surging to new five-month highs. Iron ore prices also helped to boost the Aussie with low and mid-tier grades both closing at fresh five-year highs on Monday. More broadly, the main theme of the session was broad-based US dollar weakness. However, as for the reason why the greenback softened, there were plenty of possible explanations offered by analysts but no definitive answer. Some put it down to a lift in risk aversion, although that doesn’t explain the buying in the safe-haven Japanese yen against the greenback during the session, while others said it may reflect adjustments to market positioning ahead of the release of several key central bank releases in the coming days. In Australia, housing finance data for February released at 11.30am AEST will be the highlight for the local session. Markets are looking for the value of owner-occupier finance to lift by 1%, helping to offset an expected 0.5% further decline in investor finance.
https://www.aetoscg.com/en-au/market-commentary.html
Forex Market Commentary
10/4/2019
EURUSD
The Euro made gains on Tuesday 1.1265(+10 pips) against the greenback. The euro dollar pair rose its weekly advance up to 1.1283, finishing the day with modest gains at around 1.1265. The dollar was under selling pressure throughout the first half of the day, influenced by the positive tone of equities and US President Trump announcement that the country is studying to put tariffs on $11B of EU products, particularly focused in aircrafts, as a way to counter the harm caused to Boeing by its subsidies for Airbus. The EU responded that it would act tit-for-tat against US tariffs, although it seems unlikely that the WTO will allow such an action from the US. Trade tensions weighed on Wall Street, which put an end to the winning strike of US indexes, sharply down for the day, also affected by caution ahead of earnings reports. Dollar’s decline came to a halt mid-US session, with the EUR holding among the strongest. Caution prevails ahead of Wednesday when the ECB will unveil its latest monetary policy meeting. Given the dovish turn from the central bank from the previous meeting, it seems unlikely EU policymakers will make big announcements that could affect the common currency. If something, they are expected to express steepening concerns about the economic outlook. Later in the day, the FOMC will release the Minutes of its latest meeting, which also include a dovish tilt in its March meeting. The Fed would surprise negatively only if it fuel chances of a rate cut. Alongside these events, EU representatives will have an emergency summit to discuss a possible Brexit extension, while the US will publish March inflation data.
https://www.aetoscg.com/en-au/market-commentary.html
Forex Market Commentary
11/4/2019
AUDUSD
The Aussie rose strongly to new highs, closing at 0.7165 (+39 pips). The Australian dollar rose strongly across the board on Wednesday, helped by the release of a soft US core inflation report for March and reduced odds of a near-term interest rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Two main catalysts helped the push the Aussie higher during the session. The first was a speech from RBA Deputy Governor Guy Debelle who pushed back against growing market expectations that the bank will deliver a near-term cut to Australia’s cash rate. Debelle’s speech helped the Aussie to bounce from losses earlier in the session, helping to lift the AUD/USD back above the .7150 level in early European trade. The Aussie was given a further boost by the release of a soft US core consumer price inflation report for March. There’s nothing on the domestic calendar in Australia with Chinese consumer and producer price inflation figures for March the only regional release that will attract any real attention from traders. CPI is expected to jump to an annual pace of 2.3%, up from 1.5%, while producer prices look set to lift by 0.4% over the year from 0.1% in February. Much of the strength in CPI is expected to be in food prices, especially those for pork.
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Forex Market Commentary
12/4/2019
EURUSD
The Euro closed lower on Thursday, closing at 1.1261(-14 pips) against the greenback. The American dollar advanced across the FX board, as better-than-expected data leaned the scale in its favor ahead of the last trading session of the day. However, major pairs hold within familiar levels, with the EUR/USD pair peaking at 1.1287, to settle lower at around 1.1260. Demand for the shared currency was dented by the ECB’s survey of professional forecasters showed that the real GDP growth expectation for this year, dropped to 1.2% from 1.5%, while 2020 forecast was also revised lower. German final March inflation was confirmed at 1.4% YoY when harmonized to EU one. Across the Atlantic, things were a bit better as US March PPI was up by 0.6% MoM and by 2.2% YoY, while the core readings came in at 0.3% and 2.4% respectively. Also, and for the week ended April 5, the number of those filing for unemployment decreased to 196K, better than the 211K expected, and the lowest reading in almost five decades. Friday will bring German Wholesale Price Index figures for March, February Industrial Production, and the US preliminary April Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, forecasted at 98.0 vs. the previous 98.4.
https://www.aetoscg.com/en-au/market-commentary.html
Forex Market Commentary
15/4/2019
EURUSD
The Euro closed higher on Friday, closing at 1.1297(+38 pips) against the greenback. Sronger risk appetite boosted the EUR on Friday. The American dollar came under selling pressure amid resurgent risk appetite, which sent worldwide stocks to the upside. Major factor was the beginning of the earning seasons in the US, with JP Morgan reporting record revenues and profits in Q1. Dollar’s slump followed an attempt to recover ground Thursday, which ended being reversed, so the currency reached fresh multi-week lows against most rivals, increasing the risk of such a move to continue. Further supporting the pair’s advance, EU Industrial Production fell by less-than-anticipated, down by 0.2% MoM and by 0.3% YoY, while the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment declined to 96.9 in April, according to preliminary estimates, from a previous 98.4. The upcoming week will be a shortened one with most markets closed on Good Friday, as only Japanese markets will open that day. Nevertheless, there’s plenty of relevant data scheduled, with the most relevant being business activity updates in the EU, in the form of April preliminary Markit PMI. This Monday, there’s nothing scheduled in the EU, while the US will only offer the NY Empire State Manufacturing Activity, forecasted at 6.0 vs. the previous 3.7, and February TIC Flows.
https://www.aetoscg.com/en-au/market-commentary.html
Forex Market Commentary
16/4/2019
EURUSD
The Euro closed where it opened on Monday, closing at 1.1302 against the greenback. Initially, the pair rose up to 1.1320 at the beginning of the day, as risk-on mood from late last week prevailed, while the lack of macroeconomic data kept market movements limited. Limiting EUR’s gains, the German’s Bundesbank monthly report showed that the country’s economy grew moderately in the first quarter of the year, adding that the primary growth trend remains subdued, hardly a news, but still weighing on the shared currency. The US published the preliminary NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for April, which resulted at 10.1 vs. the expected 6.0, also well above the previous one. Tuesday will bring the German ZEW survey for April(19:00 AEST), with the economic sentiment expected to have improved in the country and the Union. The EU will release February Construction Output, while the US will unveil March Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production, seen little changed when compared to the previous month. Range trading may continue ahead of Thursday when both economies will publish more relevant figures
https://www.aetoscg.com/en-au/market-commentary.html
Forex Market Commentary
17/4/2019
EURUSD
The Euro weakened on Tuesday, closing at 1.1284(-19 pips) against the greenback. The greenback finished Tuesday in a relatively mixed direction, up against European and safe-haven rivals, and down against commodity-linked currency, as market players struggled again to find directional catalysts. The shared currency came under selling pressure early London amid headlines indicating that several European Central Bank policymakers think that the bank’s economic projections are too optimistic as growth weakness in China and trade tensions persist, raising doubts about growth’s estimates for the second half of the year. The April ZEW survey, on the contrary, gave a first, timid sign of a possible rebound in German’s economy, as economic sentiment improved in the country, rising to 3.1 from a previous -3.6, while for the Union, the index came in at 4.5 from a previous-2.5. On a down note, the survey showed that the assessment of the current situation was downbeat, down to 5.5 vs. the 8.0 expected and the previous 11.1. According to the official report, the slight improvement was largely based on the hope that the global economic environment will develop less poorly than previously assumed. Risk appetite kept the pair afloat during the first half of the day, but weighed on it in the US session, as Wall Street reached fresh yearly highs in pre-opening trading, but failed to hold on to such gains. In the US, Industrial Production contracted 0.1% in March from a month earlier, HILE the Capacity Utilization Rate eased to 78.8% in the same period, both figures missing the market’s expectations. The EU will release its February Trade Balance and March inflation data this Thursday, none of them expected to rock the boat. The US will also publish its February Trade Balance, and Mortgage Applications for last week.
https://www.aetoscg.com/en-au/market-commentary.html