Forex Market Commentary
08/07/2019
AUDUSD
The Aussie came down on Friday, closing at 0.6978(-46 pips) against the greenback. The Aussie was moved due to good data from the US. As Non-farm payrolls for June came in way better than expected at 224K, beating market expectation of 160K. Significant job gains occurred in professional and business services, in health care, and in transportation and warehousing. Apart from the NFP, the US also released their unemployment rate for June, coming in at 3.7%, missing out on market’s forecast of 3.6%. Turning to the day ahead, expect trading volumes to be thin due to the lack of economic data releases.
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Forex Market Commentary
10/7/2019
AUDUSD
The Aussie fell on Tuesday, currently at 0.6928(-43 pips) against the greenback. Aussie came down as the NAB business confidence data came in at 2, previously at 7. The figure released yesterday was below its long-run average of 6, with wholesale and transport & utilities showing the weakest levels of confidence. However, business conditions strengthened (up 2 points to 3), due to a lift in employment (up 3 points to 5) and sales (up 3 points to 6), while profitability was unchanged (at -2). For today, the Westpac Consumer Confidence Index for July is set to be released at 10:30 AEST, previously at 100.7. Aussie traders will also be looking out for the Chinese Inflation rate for June, which is set to be released at 11:30 AEST, previously at 2.7%.
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Forex Market Commentary
11/7/2019
AUDUSD
The Aussie strengthened on Wednesday, currently trading at 0.6961(+37 pips) against the greenback. On Wednesday, Westpac Consumer Confidence Index for July came in worse than expected at 96.5, market forecasted to be at 101 and previously at 100.7. However, the Aussie as well as the other majors appreciated against the greenback on Wednesday due to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s House testimony- as he strongly hinted that a rate cut is coming later this month, mentioning issues such as unresolved trade tensions and worries over the weakness of the global outlook. For today, Australia’s home loans MoM for May is scheduled to be released at 11:30 AEST. On the US side, Inflation Rate YoY for June is scheduled to be released at 22:30 AEST.
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Forex Market Commentary
12/7/2019
AUDUSD
The Aussie strengthened on Thursday, currently trading at 0.6974(+16 pips) against the greenback. Aussie home loans MoM for May came in better than market’s expectation at 0% beating forecast by -0.6%. On the US side, inflation rate YoY for June came in as market predicted at 1.6%. Their inflation rate fell comparing to previous month which came in at 1.8%, as food prices rose at a slower rate while energy cost continue to decline. Core inflation rate from the US came in at 2.1%, beating market expectation of 2%. Core inflation excludes volatile goods such as food and energy. Turning to the day ahead, Aussie traders will be tuned in at 13:00 AEST for the Chinese Balance of trade data for June. If the balance of trade for the Chinese market comes out way better than expected, we can see the pair pushing above the 0.7000 price level. No other major economic events is scheduled to be released for today.
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Forex Market Commentary
15/7/2019
AUDUSD
The Aussie made a bullish run to end the week, closing at 0.7021(+50 pips) against the greenback. Aussie managed to recover after taking a hit during the earlier days of last week (weaker than expected data releases) thanks to the greenback being weaker towards the end of last week. Aussie fell on Monday last week as ANZ Job advertisement grew to 4.6%, comparing to previous recording of -8.2%. On Tuesday last week, NAB Business Confidence for June came in at 2 in comparison to a previous reading of 7. Then Aussie finally picked up following comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell- indicating to traders that a FOMC rate cut was foreseeable towards the end of July. And on Friday, Aussie appreciated further on the back of China’s positive trade balance release, coming in at $50.98B, beating market’s expectations of $44.65B. For today, Aussie traders will have to focus on China’s GDP Growth rate YoY for Q2, which is set to be released at 12:00 AEST. However, this will not be as influential to the price in comparison to their trade balance data.
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Forex Market Commentary
16/7/2019
AUDUSD
The Aussie made gains for the fifth consecutive session, currently trading at 0.7040(+24 pips) against the greenback. The Aussie was aided by positive retail sales data from China for June, coming in at 9.8%, beating expectations of 8.5%. The weakness of the USD also played a part of Australia’s bullish turnaround. Fellow Kiwi neighbor also relished, appreciating for the fifth consecutive day as well after their CPI data for Q2 came in as expected. The RBNZ had decided to hold interest rate at 1.5% at their June 26 monetary policy announcement, this provides further rate cut speculation in their next meeting in August. For today, Aussie traders will be patiently waiting for the RBA meeting minutes, which is set to be released at 11:30 AEST. US retail sales data is also set to be released at 22:30 AEST.
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Forex Market Commentary
18/7/2019
AUDUSD
The Aussie fell by a margin, currently trading at 0.7011(-3 pips) against the greenback. Leading indicators of employment growth proposed that the pace of job increases “would moderate over coming months”. That doesn’t bode well for the much desired reduction in spare capacity in the labour market, of which the RBA minutes note remains well in evidence. Aussie traders are holding their horses ahead of the unemployment data that is set to be released today at 11:30 AEST. Previously at 5.2%, the markets are expecting the unemployment rate to remain the same. Employment change will also be one important data to look at as the May data came in at 42.3K, market is forecasting10K job to be added for the month of June. Later tonight at 22:30 AEST, the US will be releasing their Initial Jobless claims JUL/13, previously at 209K, forecasted to be at 216K.
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Forex Market Commentary
19/7/2019
AUDUSD
The Aussie bolstered on Thursday, currently trading at 0.7063(+56 pips) against the greenback. The Aussie benefited initially in the earlier session as full-time employment change came in at 21.1K, beating market forecast of 14.5K. Unemployment also maintained at 5.2%, matching markets expectations. During the US session, the greenback fell after New York Federal Reserve Chief John Williams mentioned that policymakers need to stimulate the economy early in order to cope with too low inflation when rates are near zero. Markets reacted heavily to this information as a rate cut for the Feds are priced in for later this month. For today, the economic calendar is relatively light as only the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel for July is set to be out at 00:00 AEST (20th July).
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Forex Market Commentary
23/7/2019
AUDUSD
The Aussie fell on Monday, currently trading at 0.7029(-13 pips) against the greenback. The Aussie fell on the back of the greenback appreciating as the Trump administration and congressional Democrats forged an agreement to increase billions to government spending and lift the debt limit for two years. This initiative reduces the chance of a potentially catastrophic fiscal crisis in Washington during the fall season in September. For today, the only minor economic event that is scheduled for release is at 23:00 AEST-US House price index MoM for May , previously at 0.4%, forecasted to be at 0.3%.
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Forex Market Commentary 24/7/2019
GBPUSD
The Pound fell on Tuesday, currently trading at 1.2434(-37 pips) against the greenback. In the UK, Boris Johnson wins the race to be the next UK Prime Minister, replacing Theresa May. He beat Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt quite comfortably- receiving 92,153 votes to 46,656. Boris Johnson has repeatedly mentioned that Brexit will happen on the 31st of October, with many speculating a no deal Brexit could be the end result for the UK. A no deal Brexit would result in job cuts for the nation, higher prices in retail shops. and a possibility of UK’s National health service being sold off to US corporations in a deal with US President Donald Trump. On the data front, the CBI Industrial trend orders for July came out way worse than expected at -34, market forecasted it to be at -15. For today, at 18:30 AEST, the UK will publish their Finance Mortgage approvals for June, previously at 42.39K, forecasted to be at 42.9K.
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Forex Market Commentary
25/7/2019
GBPUSD
The Pound appreciated on Wednesday, currently trading at 1.2484(+48 pips) against the greenback. In the UK, newly elected Prime Minister Boris Johnson has made his first appearance and speech after taking charge, declaring that the UK will leave the EU on October 31st with no ifs or buts. He also listed a wide range of domestic plans, which includes reforms to ensure the additional £20 billion in NHS funding “really gets to the front line”. He also stated to increase investment in transport and education as well as growing the number of policemen across the country by 20,000. For today, there is nothing scheduled to be released from the UK side, the US however have the Durable goods orders MoM for June that is set to be released at 22:30 AEST.
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Forex Market Commentary
26/7/2019
AUDUSD
The Australian dollar fell on Thursday, closing at 0.6950(-27 pips) against the greenback. The surge in the US dollar came from good data release, as the US Durable Goods Orders MoM came in at 2%, beating market expectations of 0.7%. Initial Jobless claims also came in on a better note at 206K, beating market forecast of 219K. Moreover, the governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia has suggested the official interest rate in Australia could continue to plummet lower, as the Australian economy continues to look for stimulus. This will add extra pressure to the Aussie, towards the 0.6800 price handle. For today, traders will shift their attention to US GDP Growth rate QoQ Adv Q2, scheduled to be released at 22:30 AEST tonight, previously at 3.1%, forecasted to be at 1.8%.
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Forex Market Commentary
29/7/2019
GBPUSD
The cable pair fell to 1.2383(-69 pips) against the greenback on Friday. The fall was because a no deal Brexit could be the most probable option for the United Kingdom come 31st October. The newly elected Prime Minister instructed cabinet members to conduct interviews across newspapers and broadcasters this weekend as part of a public awareness about the prospect of a no-deal Brexit . Their message is that the UK will be heading for no deal unless the EU leaders agree to replace the Irish backstop. For today, the UK’s Nationwide housing prices is scheduled to be released at 16:00 AEST, previously at 0.5%, forecasted to come out at 0.1%. the Bank of England Consumer Credit for June is also set to be released at 18:30 AEST today, previously at £0.822B, forecasted to be at £1.0B.
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Forex Market Commentary
31/7/2019
EURUSD
The euro bolstered on Tuesday, currently trading at 1.1158(+16 pips) against the greenback. Germany’s eurozone GFK consumer confidence for August came in as expected at 9.7. Business confidence came in lower than market predicted at -0.12 comparing to 0.08. Germany’s inflation rate picked up, currently at 1.7%. On the US side, both personal spending and personal income month on month for June came is as expected at 0.3% and 0.4%. US President Trump also tweeted to reignite trade war tensions, tweeting “China is doing very badly, worst year in 27 - was supposed to start buying our agricultural product now - no signs that they are doing so. That is the problem with China, they just don’t come through. Our Economy has become MUCH larger than the Chinese Economy is last 3 years”. Trump had initially mentioned that the trade talks were progressing back on track in June but last week he also criticized China for “cheating the system at the expense of the US”. Today, the European zones GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q2 along with inflation rate and unemployment rate for June is set to be released at 18:00 AEST.
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Forex Market Commentary
01/08/2019
AUDUSD
The Aussie fell on Wednesday, currently trading at 0.6849(-25 pips) against the greenback. The Aussie initially traded to as high as 0.6899 as local inflation data came in better than expected at 1.6%, beating market expectations of 1.5%. Later in the session, the Feds have decided to cut interest rate by a quarter point and it hinted it may do so again this year to protect the US economy. Financial markets were in range and whipsaw during the press conference as Powell as investors struggled to identify how the rate paths would be in the foreseeable future. This rate cut signifies the first rate reduction since December 2008 when the Fed reduced the benchmark interest rate to 0 to fight against recession during the financial crisis. Today, the Australia’s export and import prices for the second quarter is set to be released at 11:30 AEST. On the US side, continuing jobless claims for July is set to be released at 22:30 AEST.
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Forex Market Commentary
2/8/2019
AUDUSD
The Aussie fell on Thursday, currently trading at 0.6805(-40 pips) against the greenback. In the earlier session, the Aussie rose as the AIG Manufacturing Index came in at 51.3, beating market expectations of 49. Export prices rose for the 2nd quarter at 3.8%, beating market expectations of 2.8%. Import prices came in at 0.9%, missing the forecast of 1.8%. Aussie came tumbling during the US session when US President Donald Trump says that he will impose a 10 percent tariff next month(1st September) on $300 billion in Chinese imports, which includes consumer products like phones and toys. The earlier tariffs that was imposed by the US President was specifically tailored to minimize the impact to ordinary citizens and consumers, however the new tariffs will cause local Americans to dig deeper into the pockets. For today, the Australian retail sales will be one to look out for at 11:30 AEST.
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Forex Market Commentary
8/8/2019
AUDUSD
The Aussie fell to 0.6757(-4 pips) against the greenback on Wednesday. However, the Aussie dropped harshly during yesterday’s session to as low as 0.6676(10 year low)-lowest level since March 2009- after the central back of New Zealand cut its interest rate by half a percent- making their interest rate currently as 1%. For today, the downside risk for the Aussie is still present ahead of the Chinese trade balance data that is set to be released at 13:00 AEST, previously at $50.98billion, forecasted to be at $40.00b. The Australian economy is heavily reliant and have close ties with china as an estimate of one-third of Australia’s exports get shipped to the Chinese economy to consume. A lower data release would result in the AUD falling back below the 0.6700 price level.
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Forex Market Commentary
14/8/2019
GBPUSD
The Pound fell on Tuesday, currently trading at 1.2059(-19 pips) against the greenback. Yesterday’s employment data came in mixed, with mostly under market expectations. Unemployment rate fell to 3.9%, losing to market expectations of 3.8%. Markets had forecast the rate to remain unchanged. Unemployment rose by 31,000 to 1.329 million and employment jumped by 115,000 to a new all-time high of 32.811 million, comfortably above forecasts of a 65,000 increase. Meanwhile, total pay growth picked up to 3.7 percent, the fastest since June 2008. For today, traders will turn their attention to the inflation rate for July that is set to be released at 18:30 AEST, previously at 2%, market is expecting it to come in at 1.9%.
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Forex Market Commentary
16/8/2019
GBPUSD
The Pound rose on Thursday, currently trading at 1.2089(+30 pips) against the greenback. The cable pair rose during the UK session as retail sales came out much better than expected, 0.2% against, beating market expectations of -0.2%. Non-store retailing grew 6.9 percent and sales at department stores advanced 1.6 percent, following six consecutive months of decline. The pair eventually retreated after trading to a high of 1.2150, falling back to 1.2088 after the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson tweeted that “ the referendum results must be respected. We will leave the EU by the 31st of October.” There is nothing scheduled to be released from the UK today.
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Forex Market Commentary
20/8/2019
GBPUSD
The Pound fell on Monday, currently trading at 1.2126(-32 pips) against the greenback. The main catalyst of the fall was due to claims made from UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, stating that the EU leaders will change their positions and allow the UK to scrap the Brexit backstop in the withdrawal agreement. Moreover, Boris Johnson will be having a meeting with Germany Chancellor Angela Merkel and the President of France, Emmanuel Macron this week, where he acknowledged there would be “bumps in the road” before any agreement to drop the plan to prevent a hard border in Ireland. After the leaked report indicating a possibility of scarce of food and medicine shortage if a hard Brexit were to occur, Boris Johnson insisted that preparations for a no-deal Brexit are on track. For today, the UK will be releasing their CBI Industrial trends orders for August, previously at -34, forecasted to be at -23.
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