Forex Market Update: New Zealand Dollar Rally Tempered Ahead of RBNZ Rate Decision

[B]Kiwi gains this week have been hampered by the AUD/NZD[/B], with the cross rising steadily from lows under 1.2700 on Monday to highs above 1.2800 this week. Expectations that the RBNZ will cut rates by 25bp, while the RBA is seen on hold, is hampering the Kiwi performance. While AUD is two big figures off Monday’s lows, NZD/USD has only managed a gain of just over 150 pts from 0.6153 to today’s highs of 0.6307. NZD/USD has benefited today from renewed weakness in the USD and risk appetite for NZD/JPY as the Nikkei rose to 8-month highs. This saw the Kiwi mostly ignore data including the news that export prices fell 8.2% in March quarter and the largest quarterly decline since 1957. Some positive news emerged however with electronic card spending rising in May by 0.7% however weak economic conditions have seen company debt collections rise by 127%. Expectations as to the RBNZ outcome vary widely with Bloomberg asserting that rates will remain unchanged due to signs of recovery while a Business Day opinion article calls for a 50bp rate cut, with the market expecting a 25bp easing. For Kiwi, 0.6340 and 0.6400 are the next resistance levels.