[U][B]Trading RBNZ rate statement 140129 WED 2000GMT[/B][/U]
1 hour after the FOMC statement, RBNZ is announcing their official cash rate and rate statement. RBNZ is widely expected to raise interest rates sometime in March/April.
However, there is a small 20-30% chance for RBNZ to raise interest rates today. If they do, the NZDUSD should go up.
Else the following rate statement should be of a bullish stance, emphasizing on the need to increase interest rates in near future. In this case, market should buy NZDUSD up in anticipation of future rate hikes.
A) Long NZDUSD 3 mins before release
SL 50pips
TP manual trailing stop
B) Long NZDJPY 3 mins before release
SL 50pips
TP manual trailing stop
On the bigger timeframe, a potential head and shoulders bearish pattern is forming. In the present moment, GBPUSD is forming the right shoulder. The price action in week 07 and week 08 should determine the validity of the right shoulder.
If you are bearish GBPUSD, then it is prudent to find proper price zones to short GBPUSD. On the formation of the right shoulder, there is a possibility to short at the bearish bat harmonic pattern. With a confluence of 2 very strong technical indicators, i.e. the head & shoulders pattern and the bearish bat harmonic pattern, the chances of a winning trade for this setup is high.
SHORT GBPUSD 1.6620
SL 50pips
TP1 1.6250
TP2 1.6000
On the larger 4hr timeframe chart, I see two things happening. First, there is a potential head & shoulders pattern forming. Second, the neckline of the H&S pattern is exactly at a major pivotal support/resistance zone of 1.5000. Based on this pattern, I am looking for a suitable location to go short. Where is the ideal location? The price action is offering some clues.
In the chart below, I see a smaller inverted H&S pattern. This is a 330pips inverted H&S. If I use a 1:1 price target for the inverted H&S, the price objective comes to 1.5650. Furthermore, 1.5650 is also the 78.6% FIB retracement, thereby lending stronger weight to the success of this trade.
SHORT EURAUD 1.5650
SL 50pips
TP 1.5000
On the weekly chart, I see 2 conflicting views. There is the down trendline in red, and also the up trendline in green. Which trendline shall prevail? My inclination is for the down trendline to hold EURUSD.
There is a bearish bat harmonic pattern on the 4hr chart. This looks like a suitable location to enter short.
SHORT EURUSD 1.3840-50
SL 50pips
TP 1.3700
Bullish bat detected on USDCAD 1hr chart.
Long USDCAD 1.0940-50
SL 50pips
TP 1.1200
On the very large time frame, we see a very nice rising channel in GBPJPY.
I would like to enter long in anticipation of price touching point 3. Where would be a good place to enter long? Harmonics might hold the key.
LONG GBPJPY 165.90-166.00
SL 50pips
TP 170.00
XAUUSD gold is consolidating within a wide $260 range. With gold this week at $1300, its currently in the middle of the range from $1180 to $1440. Price action suggests a possible double or triple bottom. No strong directional opinion as gold is stuck in middle of $1180 to $1440. I would look to trade gold near the edges of the range. Possible trades. Long gold around 1200, or short gold around 1400 seems the best reward/risk play.
Long gold XAUUSD 1200-10
SL 1150
TP 1400
Strong support at this area.
Long GBPUSD 1.6820-40
SL below 1.6800
TP 1.6990
Watch EURUSD price action carefully. A break below current support zone 1.3630-50, could send EURUSD lower to the next support zone around 1.3500.
2 ways to trade this.
A) Aggressive approach (Short on breakout below 1.3630-50)
Pros: higher chance of being fillled
Cons: may be a false breakout, and EURUSD trades back above 1.3650
B) Conservative approach (After breakout, wait for pullback rally to 1.3630-50)
Pros: for those who prefer more confirmation price action before proceeding
Pros: reduces chance of false breakout
Cons: if EURUSD breaks below 1.3630-50 without any rally retracement, trade may not be filled
NZDUSD is approaching its ALL TIME HIGH 0.8840, set in Aug 2011. I think its going to be hard to break above this level, at least on its first attempt.
Short NZDUSD 0.8830-40
SL above 0.8880
TP1 0.8670
TP2 0.8400
=== Forex Trading Signals Week 36 (01-05 Sept) ===
=== EURJPY battling it out for right shoulder ===
Long EURJPY 136.00-10
SL 135.50
TP 138.00
Click here to see chart.
Forex Trading Signals On EURJPY EURJPY battling it out for right shoulder | Forex Trading Signals
How the mighty has fallen!! From the lofty heights at 1.7200 to the current levels of 1.6000. A fall of 1200 pips within 3-4 months.
There could be a technical rebound around 1.5720-30. This is the 61.8% FIB retracement level and also a prior support/resistance zone.
Long GBPUSD 1.5720-30
SL 1.5660
TP1 1.5850
TP2 1.6050
=== Forex Trading Signals Week 41 (06-10 Oct) ===
=== EURUSD massive bullish cypher ===
Long EURUSD 1.2460-70
SL below 1.2400
TP 1.2700
Click like to see chart
Thank you for this post. It looks pretty outstanding but I wonder what stop loss should I have in order to use this strategy? Because the shadows of the candlesticks are huge in some cases.
Which trade are you referring to?