Time to buy
Good Job staying away from the trade Tranceaty. If you donāt feel confident about the trade anymore itās best to stay away. Itās been said before but I like the quote: āIād rather be out of a trade and wishing that I had taken it than in a trade wishing I had notā.
As for your analysis I think it was pretty good. The pin bar you saw on the hourly was a great pin bar. On my charts I drew my resistance line a bit lower than yours right around where your initial profit target was. So when I looked at this chart that big daily green candle had actually penetrated resistance and kept me away.
The other thing is itās much easier to trade with the trend than against it. Thanks for posting your ideas and getting the thread back on track. We can all learn from each other.
Iām a rookie too so donāt take my advice with a grain of salt as I am learning still.
Like your quote āIād rather be out of a trade and wishing that I had taken it than in a trade wishing I had notā.
Will keep that in mind. Thanks!
Since I see there are still some PA heads out thereā¦
I am taking the EURJPY pin on the daily. The plan is to move to break even once TP1 is filled since this is technically a counter-trend trade.
Joey
I saw this, but decided not to trade since its countertrend. Nonetheless, your TP1 are set at a very reasonable area.
Safe trading.
You all did a great job here
i have being following the thread since i must read the first 50post
too hard to find pa this weekend
but last week is a good one
Welcome! =)
Wish to see you posting soon as well.
Was looking at this setup in USDJPY.
USDJPY has climbed to an all time high of around 125.6 before dropping down (probably traders taking profit), and sees support at the BRN 124.
A closer look into the H4 chart sees a nice pin bar with some space to trade. Actually the H1 chart shows 2 PB which blended together gives a better-looking PB, but canāt show it here since I donāt have H2 chart.
However, I felt that this support at 124 has only been tested in the last week, price seems to wish to break through and always gets pushed back. In the H4 chart, I also felt that if I were to trade it, I do not feel confident that the low of the PB would give me enough space for price to fluctuate. I thus decide to give it a miss. Will probably wait for a more obvious PA, or even preferably a daily PA signal.
For those who wish to take the trade, I guess you have to be careful at around 124.6 as the area of supply/demand.
Let me know how you feel about this. =)
Hey tranceaty,
While price is in an obvious uptrend and even small signals end up working out in them, I would give this trade a pass and wait for some more obvious PA.
Joey
[QUOTE=āPippin it Old School;705082ā] Hey tranceaty, While price is in an obvious uptrend and even small signals end up working out in them, I would give this trade a pass and wait for some more obvious PA. Joey[/QUOTE]
Hi joey,
Iām trying to understand your first line on āsmall signalā. So is it good to be trading small signal?
Iām also thinking about how to measure the āobviousnessā of a PA, for me currently, its just based on my gut feeling when i first looked at the PA. How do u measure āobviousnessā?
Thanks.
Teo
Hey tranceaty,
You donāt want to be playing small signals, I was just saying that they have better chances of working out in clear uptrends when played from obvious flip levels. I guess there isnāt a clear cut way to measure obviousness, but to me it is signals that stick out and away from all other price and are rejecting proven levels.
Now obviously if you wouldāve taken this trade you wouldāve been stopped out by that big bearish momentum, which is why I didnāt want to take it in the first place. Price formed a 2Bar/IB on the daily, indicating price may be gearing up for a retrace.
To me, the obvious play would be to wait for price to get to the key flip level and fire off a signal to go long. Not only would it be rejecting a clear cut proven s/r level, but there would be space to trade back into higher.
Looking at the chart below, you can see that the pin bar isnāt really sticking out and away from all other price and didnāt really even pierce the support level, which also wasnāt a key daily level to begin with. To me, it looks more like a profit taking pin than a reversal pin. Again, there isnāt really a standard way to measure it, it just takes more chart time and experience. The other thing that was bad about this signal was it had no space to trade back into.
Hope that helps a bit!
Joey
It helps a lot.
A few things I learn or was reminded by what you said.
- Be mindful of the short term momentum of the daily trend. If it shows a strong tendency for a reversal, donāt trade against it unless there is really strong signal.
ā> When I looked at your box of traffic in the 2nd chart, maybe a strong signal could be for example a PB which clearly passes through and reject all the traffic, and possibly closes back above the traffic. Just a thought.
- SPACE to trade!!!
Thanks Joey.
Love chatting with you on these.
Teo
Hi Joey,
Would like to bring back this trade you took, wanted to know what makes you decide to pull the trigger? Does the PB with a bearish body shows an obvious signal that you felt is a good probability setup, even though it is counter-trend?
Anyway I see that the trade should have gone to your TP1, good job on that!
Teo
I donāt think so, I think his TP1 is at 138.400, the lowest point so far was 138.426
Didnt notice that.
Safe trading.
Teo
Hi all,
was looking at this and wondering if itās considered a good setup.
I drew my S/R lines as shown above in the daily chart, a good downtrend. I zoomed into H1 chart and see the below chart.
To me, it seems that the BEEB is formed at a value area. However it doesnāt seem that big and obvious and learning from past, the intraday trend is actually bullish.
I remember reading that we should follow the trend of the chart which you wish to trade in, which is H1 for my example. Is that right?
So should we be looking for short or long trades?
Thanks in advance.
Teo
Hey Teo! Exterior is right, my TP was missed by just a fraction of a pip so I am still in this trade.
If you look back on the EURJPY chart, you can see that this level is a very important level in the past. From my experience, as long as the signal is decent and level is great, price usually at least reaches the FTA, which is why my plan is to go to BE as soon as TP1 is reached. The PB definitely stuck out to me at formed right at my pre-marked level. Lots of counter-trend trades still have good probability, you just have to manage them very tightly because price could turn at the drop of a dime. It does take a bit of chart time to know when to take them, though.
Joey
The level here is superb and overall this could be a viable trade, but what concerns me is the BEEB seems to be slightly rejecting those previous wicks leading up to it. In counter-trend situations, these small details could make or break your trade. So, for me this is a pass.
Joey
[QUOTE=āPippin it Old School;705559ā] The level here is superb and overall this could be a viable trade, but what concerns me is the BEEB seems to be slightly rejecting those previous wicks leading up to it. In counter-trend situations, these small details could make or break your trade. So, for me this is a pass. Joey[/QUOTE] Hi Can I understand in greater details your point of the BEEB rejecting those previous wicks? Thanks, Marcus