Great discipline and sticking to your game plan is very important . Your on your way to be making lots of $$ .
Hi camacho.As to your questions ,1.I cant comment on his membership site as I havenāt used i.As for his methods ,they donāt work for me personally on their own as I find the drawdown to great,though saying that some others say it works for them and at the end of the day its great practice for watching how the markets work,I personally think it takes around 4 years minimum to start making serious progress.Many people have a few wins in a row and think theyāve cracked it only to give it all back through over confidence.2 I have tried this method over a fair period and while in theory like it have not had too much success with it on its own,but perhaps thatās just me.3 I donāt know for certain but I imagine a lot of old timers have given up but again I could be wrong.4 As above.5 I do like pin bars and engulfing bars but use them in conjunction with other things .As others will tell you trading is a hard game to master but practice and time wont do you any harm thatās for sure.Knottheads reply is quite good so thatās worth reading.Any way I wish you well with your trading keep practicing and donāt get down when it gets tricky,with things as they are at the moment trading can be a bit volatile so take that into account
There are a couple of things to note before you listen to others. When you went to University and did that great degree, did the professors tell you that when you graduate, the jobs and company making a bee line for you begging you to work for them? Did they tell you that you will be a captain of Industry by getting that degree at a certain University?
If the answer to YES, then maybe look around and find the most expensive course (Harvard, MIT, Oxford, Cambridge, Insead, Wharton) because they can guarantee you success.
How much is the course and what value do you think it will bring to your education? I probably guess the cost of Johnathonās education is equivalent to the risk you place on 1 trade?
No one will teach you how to make money. You can follow a trading system or method but it is up to the individual to apply the methods. He teaches a strategy based on discretion, not some form of magic indicator or just count some waves etc.
Personally I have learned a great deal from his course from the way he sees the market to the reasons why he is taking a trade. Most here would prefer to use a magic indicator that just take out all the hard decisions and viola ATM machine? One thing I guarantee you is that you will get a great educations to prepare yourself before you put real money in the markets. The course does not guarantee that you will be a successful trader but you are being prepared for a good fighting chance.
Refer back to you University course.
Good luck with your education from wherever you are seeking.
Here is a trade setup I was not fortunate to be looking this late morning on a 1H TF EURNZD as my other occupation was a private Uber service for the other half! A 2BR which is blended a pin bar at the new flip level.
[QUOTE=ābuster48;716142ā]Many people have a few wins in a row and think theyāve cracked it only to give it all back through over confidence.[/QUOTE]
Thought this resonates with me.
I was almost in that situation, when i have success in my demo, started to put in $5k in my live account. When i almost wanna take my first live trade, somehow my subconscious mind tell me that iāll do that trade in demo one last time, before i really go live. And glad i did, that trade is a loser. I analysed that trade again, and found that there are many reasons why i shd not have taken the trade initially, i guess i was eager to prove myself in live account. Perhaps its greed, or overconfidence.
Now iām trying to get my trading mentality corrected, not sure how iāll be but i guess it will take me a few months more.
If you believe you have found your edge from a significant sample size then 1 losing trades does not define a broken system. Neither does a strong of winners define your edge but it is a good start. A lot focus on expecting every trade to be winners. Sometimes no matter how good a setup is, there will be losers. Some see the randomness of the market and using money and trade management is the KEY to success.
[QUOTE=āAverage Joe;716967ā] If you believe you have found your edge from a significant sample size then 1 losing trades does not define a broken system. Neither does a strong of winners define your edge but it is a good start. A lot focus on expecting every trade to be winners. Sometimes no matter how good a setup is, there will be losers. Some see the randomness of the market and using money and trade management is the KEY to success.[/QUOTE]
I just find myself thinking differently when iām on live account as compared to when iām on demo. I need to rectify that before i really begin live.
Thatās it, practice practice practice and donāt get disheartened when it goes to custard ,just give yourself lots of time and stick with the system you find works best for yourself.
Yes thatās a problem lots of people have ,maybe have a small account and tell yourself that that moneys gone (hard I know) so its almost like a demo account ,I know some have done that perhaps it could work for you,I personally would start with a smaller amount and trade much smaller lot sizes and as average Joe said use good money management,but hey each to there own ,anyway best of luck.
I had the same problem transitioning from Demo to live. In my Demo experiences, I realised that without real money down the line I did not think I could lose even though the idea is to use Johnathonās method to convince one self that consistency of profit was the objective first and foremost exercise.
The first few live trades initially were exactly the same mindset as yourself, fear of being wrong. Every decision was re-checked and double up on the re-check and thinking that there is a perfect setup. In reality, one can only control the things under oneās control. Position sizing, money management, Trade management etc. Once your trade fires, the market decide whether you make, lose money or breakeven. The only thing in your favor is the demo experience that you have found an edge or whatever backtesting methods you have utilised up to that point.
That is why the Trading plan is so important to follow. This is to stop you from ā[B]thinking differently[/B]ā when money is down the line. If you have used conservative MM then what is the fear? The worse you can do is lose on that trade and you look for the next. You can be demoing for a few years if you want and incorporate all the checklist and the āperfect setupā and you will still have the same fear on you first live trade.
Using the conservative 2% rule, if you have fix % position as a ratio of your running Capital for instance, each losing position will render your next $ risk trade smaller and so forth. So if you have a string of losers then each loser damages the Capital less than the previous. No free lunch as the winners will have to be more consistent in theory to get back to the starting position, all mathematics.
Silver 4H
Took this retrace last night from that big bearish engulf bar. Now just follow the trading plan and hope for the best. It is either a profitable or loss trade. If profitable then it will depend how far my targets will be met.
spot on and worth sticking to
Is this thread dying from natural causes? It used to be very popular for newbies to learn the craft. I havenāt been on this for a while but thought I resurrect some discussions.
Buster, are you looking at any pairs? Would love to see some of your charts to rekindle discussions.
Thanks in advance.
Hi Joe,the thread does seem to be dying doesnāt it,which is a shame really as it could be useful if only for signals.Jonathon seems to have deserted it along with all the old timers.You do have to wonder did they give up on trading having lost all their accounts or have they cracked it and donāt need the thread anymore.It would be nice if you could believe what people write wouldnāt it,we get (or have had)lots of people who say yes it works ,but is it just a flash in the pan for them only to lose it all and give up.As for me I find this on its own doesnāt work for me,but thatās just me ,perhaps others make it work for them.As I said before I like pin bars and engulfing bars but on a smaller time frame. Iām currently playing with volume spread analysis.but it may be a dead end. I think you need to be tenacious in this game ,you must be as youāve been at it since 2011 same as me .I look at mainly the big four as the spread tends to be lower,how about yourself?.Let me know your thoughts anyway ,cheers.
Gāday Buster, We got thrashed by you guys at rugby AGAIN!:eek::46::17:
No idea where the old timers are, probably got success and moved on to concentrate on real trading OR moved on to other things. This is suppose to be a thread for learning how posters look at things through Johnathonās teachings to improve on his method. If one blindly follow the trade signals here I suspect it usually comes to a disappointing outcome since a post without real money does not cost financially except some lost pride.
Obviously there are more to what Johnathon reveals in the first 50 pages only privy to the members who join up and that is only fair to those members. I am not here promoting his education but but like all education it teaches those willing to learn a credible approach and a better chance of success. Too many here like to pick up a strategy or a special indicator and just blindly follow it expecting an ATM machine. Some courses are promoted this way and it tends to suck in a lot of newbies who can be easily disillusioned by the first hurdle of a few losses. You donāt blame your high school teacher for whatever predicament you are facing in your later lifeās difficulty and those that do are looking for some else to blame but themselves.
I personally tend to find that because FX market is a dispersed market and no central collection of data unlike a stock exchange hence any data one is looking at is through the eyes of their broker that is tapping however many or few liquid providers they are attached to. This is the reason you can sometimes see with 2 different brokers at the same time with 2 different quotes and even different color or shape candle. So what I am saying volume analysis is not reflective of the whole snap shot trading activity on the pair you are looking at. If you use MT4/MT5 the volume displayed is just number of ticks. Ticks in itself is misleading because each tick is just a change in price and does not tell you if a 100K or a 100M order has transacted.
I have now discovered that with any approach, it is not where you get in or out that really matters but how you manage your trade while you are in. The managing of trade = managing of the psychology. So if I gave you my very successful trading system hypothetically speaking, you would most unlikely be able to trade it simply because we may have different trading psychology and vice versa.
A lot I suspect coming over here to learn the craft of trading FX had the idea that just simply follow a set of rules is all it takes to be successful. The market is constantly evolving from low to high volatility. I remember in the recent past August is a very ādullā time of the year for volatility but not this month so far! I always refer to price as being random in nature because just having a high probability setup is just the first step in putting the odds in your favor. Once you fire the trade trigger, the market will decide if that high probability setup is a winner. No such thing as a sure win in this game. Plenty including myself trade a system or a method/strategy when I first started and then at the first hurdle of multiple loses to declare the way I was doing things is broken. No doubt the strategy had to be credible in the first place then fine tuning during backtest to a defined system that meets the traderās approval. To the right of the chart is where you will find out with a significant sample size of trades if you have an edge.
This bring me to the subject of math indicators which is how I initially approach FX trading. I persevered for 2 years and constantly tweaking the parameters etc, but in the end I could not get consistent results. I donāt want to declare that these indicators does not work but it did not work for me because I got signal saturation and there is never all ducks lining up to fire.
Since using raw charts Johnathonās way I feel more confident in my chart analysis and even though I have had more consistent success, I know that every trade I take is just a probability play and I can still have multiple losers. The difference is I do not panic and when the same setup comes along I will fire it again.
Hey Joe (good record) yes poor old Aussies getting a butt kicking from the Kiwis. Where abouts are you ? though currently in the UK as a Kiwi ex pat Iām soon to be moving to Bris so my loyalties may alter. Thanks for your reply anyway. I know a lot of people think that about vsa but if you look at a few different brokers charts you can get a better idea, Iāll give it a whirl anyway as its all good knowledge. There is a couple of very good forums about the subject anyway. I think by what you say your not a member of Jonos club.All the converted seem to wax lyrical about it but are they one hit wonders, I guess weāll never know mate.Cheers
Good morning Buster, start of the business day over in UK.
I am in Perth Oz. Are you by any chance living in Earlās Court, London? That is Kiwi town!
Johnathanās method is like any other logical and credible strategy that requires discretionary skills to analyse. Anyone can pick up a book on Golf or Tennis techniques but not everyone can use the instructions verbatim and suddenly becomes The New Shark. It helps so a lot hire a coach, a loose term meaning a real coach or a course etc. Trading is no different.
EURJPY looks interesting today.
I got into a position intraday setup on a 2 bar reversal 4H or 8H pin bar blended. Not the largest signal in the world but I like that level. This is just an extension from Johnathonās teachings and I have adapted some of his strategies into my trading although to be fair you pick what you think are suitable to your trading style.
For instance anything under 1H is definitely out for me and I rarely use anything under 4H.
The whole idea I have learned indirectly through his type of trading and it is by no means unique as there are a few out there teaching the naked chart swing trading methodology is that 'Less is more" attitude. You can only reap from the effort you invested and I wish I discovered this style of trading when I first started as a rose colored trader thinking small Tf is the way to go! LOL
Which pair are you looking at?
there is currently a setup coming up in Cable for a short but it is not this type of trading style so I wonāt discuss it here.
Hey Joe ,no I donāt live in Earls court AKA kangaroo valley but a lot further north,not sure why its Kan valley for Kiwis as we donāt have em in NZ,maybe a few wallabies on the islands off Auckland but as far as I know thatās it. Keeping an eye on all my pairs at the moment but seems a bit something and nothing today. I like the AUD/USD as thatās fairly predictable .The trouble I find with the daily is ,due to current volatility world wide lately the drawdown can be to great but thatās just me.
Further North as in still within London? I am familiar with central London all the way down to Wimbledon.
FOMC tends to create volatility all over the place and when you throw in US CPI figures not in agreement then it is just pure chop leading into Yellenās throat!
Survived that spike down in EURJPY now back in profit but for how long? The break in correlation between risk pairs and Precious metals is just ridiculous. silver was collapsing and then crawl up rapidly off that big bearish bar but that;s the market, random pricing sometimes.
I still favor looking for short reversal signal in gold around 1142.00. I donāt see much in AUDUSD beside choppy action. The EUR and GBP crosses for trading with the trend stuff offer much easier hold psychologically.
If you trade daily drawdown is part of the game as long as you survive the stop. Intraday stuff requires a more perfect timing. My short in Cable at London open is quite frustrating. Only managed a scaled take profit then the US CPI spiked me off breakeven the rest before going in my direction. Thatās the market for you and you just move to tomorrow LOL.
Currently is for the brave souls punting away directionless until FOMC spikes takes then out one way or the other. Interesting the US CPI figure cause the fiber/cable to take out short term bull and bear stops then the worked the price in broken correlation. Take a whiff of precious metals and a break in correlation again! Better off taking a day off post London open and forget the New York session to be looking for any setups!
Good luck