Forex Price Action

FaRS · August 7, 2012, 6:21pm

Gliderguider:

In a way, I agree, zooming out on the weekly we have hit a HUGE support level from back in Oct 2010. I have talked myself out of so many trades by zooming out it’s not funny any more (but has stopped me losing money, albeit demo atm). I’m left nursing a 1/4 of a USD/CAD short trade from a few weeks ago that will stop me out at a profit for that remaining 1/4, or continue to run. (I’m not yet a member of FSO, so don’t know the recommendations are.)

However, and it is a big however, I’m inclined to believe that we need to be trading a ‘shorter’ trend, I say in quotes because I don’t really know. If our projection to stay in a trade is say 10 periods (for me days) then why would we look for more than 20 periods previous?

Richard, I really am just learning this (my true learning after 2 years of chasing wacky indicators) so bear with me please.

Cheers

Andy

I’m learning as well. Was dealing and wasting my time on those crap indicators as well before I found this thread, so I understand u.

Safe trading,
Richard

FaRS · August 7, 2012, 6:30pm

Hei!

Was looking at it as well, but here is the thing I don’t like:

AUD/NZD D1

-> it has formed in no-mans land.

Here I zoomed in and the red marked area is where I would like to see a valid PA signal.

AUD/NZD D1

P.S. Correct me if I’m wrong about the levels.

Hope this helps,
Richard

juicypips · August 7, 2012, 6:53pm

Well spotted fars, this has been the subject of a bit of debate in the forum, you have the same levels marked as me and I do agree with you it seems to have formed in no mans land for me as I can’t see any obvious support the bueb is rejecting, and also the levels we have marked seem the most obvious sr areas above and below price which I will be looking to trade from.

Thanks Steve

Edit : These are just my views I would like to add, I could be wrong!

glenjumilla · August 7, 2012, 6:58pm

hi Fars,

that’s what i’m concerned also. but if you zoom out, you could actually see levels that follow it as a S&R in the past.

the thing is, i might just be trying to convince myself that this is an A+ setup.

but the BUEB isso tempting as it formed at a swing low and i think i’m gonna set a pending order on this trade.

let’s see how it’s gonna play out. woot woot

FaRS · August 7, 2012, 7:06pm

I’m not saying it won’t work out, it’s just the level u have drawn isn’t convincing enough for me to take the trade there.

But good luck to you!

Richard

FaRS · August 7, 2012, 7:10pm

Nice to see someone with the same view here!

sydneybelinda · August 8, 2012, 12:30am

Hey for those of you who are bored - AUDJPY 30 min to go long…

juicypips · August 8, 2012, 2:41am

Hi Sydnebelinda, what tf are you looking at? I can’t see any long pa on any time frame,

Thanks

Sicnarf · August 8, 2012, 4:55am

Are we talking?

toyogo00 · August 8, 2012, 5:55am

Hi Sicnarf,

I’ve done the calculation of the average pips of the top 10 largest bars over the last 50 bars is 62pips. The BUEB bar is 31 pips which is only 50% of the average top 10 bars. Thus it may be too small!

Regards,
Toyogo

Poseidonn · August 8, 2012, 6:11am

With Oanda this set-up is more like a 2BR. I have taken the trade on demo, because more or less it has formed at a swing low.

We’ll see how it goes.

Sicnarf · August 8, 2012, 6:31am

Woah! Alrighty, thanks! BTW, how do you compute it?

Spongybob · August 8, 2012, 6:36am

I have taken this trade. I like the break through resistance pull back to support.

Cheers

bearOZpips · August 8, 2012, 7:03am

Working out very nicely…

toyogo00 · August 8, 2012, 7:56am

Hi Sicnarf,

I wrote a MT4 program to do so!

Regards,
Toyogo

FaRS · August 8, 2012, 10:00am

Hello guys!

I have a question: is this setup valid? The BUEB hasn’t really formed at a swing low, but almost at it.

GBP/CHF H4

Richard

toyogo00 · August 8, 2012, 10:11am

Hi Richard,

I don’t think so as determining of S/R level comes first which in this case is not well defined on the PA bars.

Regards,
Toyogo

dudest · August 8, 2012, 10:16am

Hi Rich,

IMHO, keeping in mind that S/R’s are zones, it’s basically at swing low, and will probably go higher (great area)
But I wish it had formed lower, would have given me more confidence.
If I take a trade with a lack of confidence, it keeps me awake at night wondering how the trade is doing.
So I will let this pass for a cleaner setup.

Cheers

dudest · August 8, 2012, 10:42am

Hi friends,

Levels I’m watching in coming day(s)

Cheers

Forex_School_Online · August 8, 2012, 11:04am

filipl:

Hi hbres,
What I had found to be one of the most confusing things to understand, on the beginning, (and hopefully it will make things clearer to some other starters) was a thought “it’s easy for them to say now: you should have taken this bearish pinbar from the swing high” when they have all the future price action (after the PB) in front of them, it’s easy to identify swing high. Like on Jonathon’s 1st chart.

I knew it as well and it was dead simple when analysing past price behaviour from few months earlier (backtesting on any pair) it was pretty obvious when seeing all that action which has happened after any PB had occurred that it was that swing point or retracement I should be acting at.

But it looks different (from a newbie point of view) if there is nothing after the PB:

Ho do they know where price will go?
The point is - they don’t. What they do is they try to identify price levels where the price hit some resistance / support in the past (image below) and they wait for the same thing to happen now - to give you a signal of struggle at this particular level AND if it happens that the price shows you a PA signal (PB, EB, 2BR) at this level, the odds of correctly estimating price behaviour greatly increases; and they are simply using this to their advantage.

The moment it clicked for me was when I started drawing S/R lines on my daily charts from month/two months ago (backtest) AND scrolling the chart by one day (one candle) to see how price behaves around my S/R zones giving me from time to time a PA signal to enter the market.

I was simply assuming that the level the price had struggled once, will act in the same way now and might become a swing point (to buy from low or sell from high) with hopefully a PA signal that I understand and know how to act on. I hope I don’t have to stress how important is having those levels pre-marked and waiting for price to get to them, not the other way round, or playing with the trend (at least for newbies like me).

I’m still new to PA trading, learning all the time, currently on BE after trading for last 4 weeks on demo…
Now, it might not be your issue, but the situation reminded me my own beginnings and I thought somebody else could find it helpful. Don’t treat it personal.

Hi Toyo, this could help: http://forums.babypips.com/free-forex-trading-systems/42378-forex-price-action-105.html#post343285

Fil.

This is a great post.

Also good to see people noticing some trades such as the AUDNZD.

Safe trading to all,

Johnathon