Forex Price Action

walker · August 30, 2012, 11:19am

woops … sorry boss , didnt refresh b4 I posted , u beat me by a 7 minutes lol
but will throw up a chart of yours later , an you can show me where i got it wrong
cya pw

Forex_School_Online · August 30, 2012, 11:22am

Walker,

I replied within 1 hour.

Cut me some slack. I try to help all but sometimes you will have to have some patience.

dudest · August 30, 2012, 11:40am

Hi pw,

I’m not the boss :), but essentially, the 2BR bars need to be mirror images of each other (give or take), with preferably the 2nd bar closing past the opening of the first bar to signify strong reversal.

Quick examples attached

Cheers!

Forex_School_Online · August 30, 2012, 11:43am

Great examples!

dudest · August 30, 2012, 11:53am

Thanks Boss

Bigd41190 · August 30, 2012, 12:00pm

A pin bar forming here if I’m correct? I know I have to wait till it closes.

P.S. also if anyone could tell me how to highlight or draw arrows to selected areas of interest I would greatly appreciate it.

Is this next setup one we would want to avoid? Nice bearish 2BR though. I believe it is going against the general trend and may be in a retracement period…

niX1990 · August 30, 2012, 1:05pm

Forex_School_Online:

Welcome Aariff,

the trend has nothing to do with taking a retrace entry. We can tell the trend by many ways but two of the simplest and most effective are the 1,2,3 pattern and also simply looking at a chart and looking it it obviously is going up or down. this may sound over simplistic but think of it this way if it is a good string trend it will be very obvious. And if it is not obvious do you really want to be trading that market as a trending market? probably not. Chances are if the market is not obviously trending it is ranging which happens a lot more then markets trending how we would like.

The retrace entry goes against everything we strive for in this thread. The reason being is we are after regular profits with minimal draw down that keeps out account equity curve rising. Others like to aim for random risk reward targets of 1/2 risk reward etc but what this leads to is more losses followed by holding on for bigger winners. You can still be profitable this way however draw downs will be bigger and losses more regular.

Now if you take the retrace entry you will be entering many trades that will not work out. The way to think about it is by entering the retrace you are guaranteeing you enter every losing trades. This is where we don’t which again keeps losses small and winners frequent. Now the trade off is by taking the retrace you can get bigger risk reward trades but this will be averaged out as you take more losses (once again what we are trying to avoid). In the last 2 weeks alone there has been 3 or so PA signals that have not broken that traders playing the retrace would have been stopped out where as traders in here would not have even been entered.

Hope this make sense not only to you but all the others that had questions about this.

Safe trading all,

Johnathon

Hello Jonathon,

even though I already posted this chart yesterday as a possible setup I have to use it again because it is still not 100% clear to me if we treat this as down or uptrend.

Looking at the quotes post you stated 2 methods to identify the trend.

Obvious price movement from left to right.
1,2,3, pattern

If you look at the chart you can see the price of 2 month and in my opinion two different trends, depending on which method you are using.
Is the downtrend (red arrows), which I would call mid-term trend, the one we are looking at or is it the uptrend (blue arrows), which I would call short-term trend.

To a certain extent I do share meadsies opinion that we are looking at a new uptrend as we see a higher low and higher high, but I think this could also be seen as a retracement of the bigger downtrend.

I would be grateful if you or some of the more experienced members here could share your opinion on this.

Aariff · August 30, 2012, 1:08pm

Oops, Thats why i am struggling this much to get the full concept. I went though only babypips post. I thought others are trading only those learning…now i got it…i am missing more content now…

dudest · August 30, 2012, 3:11pm

Hi Aaariff,

Not a problem; just go to forexschoolonline.com >> Articles, and you’ll find them all there.

Cheers!

skysooner · August 30, 2012, 4:01pm

niX1990:

Hello Jonathon,

even though I already posted this chart yesterday as a possible setup I have to use it again because it is still not 100% clear to me if we treat this as down or uptrend.

Looking at the quotes post you stated 2 methods to identify the trend.

Obvious price movement from left to right.

1,2,3, pattern

If you look at the chart you can see the price of 2 month and in my opinion two different trends, depending on which method you are using.
Is the downtrend (red arrows), which I would call mid-term trend, the one we are looking at or is it the uptrend (blue arrows), which I would call short-term trend.

To a certain extent I do share meadsies opinion that we are looking at a new uptrend as we see a higher low and higher high, but I think this could also be seen as a retracement of the bigger downtrend.

I would be grateful if you or some of the more experienced members here could share your opinion on this.

There could be 2 things happening here. This could be going into consolidation or ranging or it could be reversing. You would want a pretty strong bearish signal on that upper support level to be sure. Still this has the signs of a 1-2-3 reversal with that bullish pin right at that lower resistance. It isn’t strongly compelling, but it could be.

Braindamage · August 30, 2012, 5:41pm

Hello, thanks Richard, yea i just see the price hit the resistence and form a good bullish bar and went down with him, i dont know about fakey setup much,it was +41pips down and i will put on BE. Really, thanks to all!

Lucas Z.

filipl · August 30, 2012, 6:33pm

At what point has it failed?
It got to the first support/resistance (trouble area) so it delivered 100% IMHO.
I don’t think you should expect more from a PA, especially such a small bearish PB after large bullish momentum (3 green candles).

Fil.

AUD/NZD H4

skysooner · August 30, 2012, 10:20pm

It isn’t a failure per se, but the candle it formed on isn’t one that should be traded. This will result in more losers than winners.

Forex_School_Online · August 31, 2012, 12:57am

Hey all,

have just written something up on the inside bar that some may like to read. I will not post link here as it is against rules, but sure you know where to find.

I wrote this so people could understand why we don’t trade with the inside bar but more importantly how traders can still use the inside bar in their trading without using it as a signal for entries.

Safe trading all,

Johnathon

Forex_School_Online · August 31, 2012, 1:14am

niX1990:

Hello Jonathon,

even though I already posted this chart yesterday as a possible setup I have to use it again because it is still not 100% clear to me if we treat this as down or uptrend.

Looking at the quotes post you stated 2 methods to identify the trend.

Obvious price movement from left to right.

1,2,3, pattern

If you look at the chart you can see the price of 2 month and in my opinion two different trends, depending on which method you are using.
Is the downtrend (red arrows), which I would call mid-term trend, the one we are looking at or is it the uptrend (blue arrows), which I would call short-term trend.

To a certain extent I do share meadsies opinion that we are looking at a new uptrend as we see a higher low and higher high, but I think this could also be seen as a retracement of the bigger downtrend.

I would be grateful if you or some of the more experienced members here could share your opinion on this.

Hello,

we are only concerned with the short term trend and not the overall trend. We are trying to get on the correct side of the market for the next swing so we don’t need to concern ourselves with overall trend.

With this in mind the recent momentum for this pair has been down. Now we look to have formed a bottom and the 1 + 2 of the 1,2,3 but not as yet the 3. Until we get the 3 which would come in the form of a new high created and closed above I still see this as a market that is trending lower and now some what moving into a range.

For this to be up we would need that next leg and for it to then continue.

Until then I will continue to trade with what we can see and that is price at resistance in a market moving down.

Make sense?

walker · August 31, 2012, 9:18am

I did apologise boss, it was my fault >>screen was froze>>> I failed to refresh b4 i posted … then when I posted your posts came up, …
Made me feel like an arze actually…
Hope you can accept my apology, and thanks for reply re my query…
kind regards
pw

walker · August 31, 2012, 9:37am

Hiya dudest ,
Thank you very much for posting up the pics for me , along with your explanations…
You made it so clear as to what a 2br constitutes…
So nice to see experienced members be of be of good help to newbies in here…

Kind regards
pw

Forex_School_Online · August 31, 2012, 9:39am

Hey mate don’t stress! There is nor hard feeling in here. Just friendly place for learning.

walker · August 31, 2012, 9:48am

The way I understand it>> in your pic>>> when price retraces to trade above pin high …the pin has failed to reverse the trend … thats all I meant Fil…
Please correct me if I’m wrong…
cheers
pw

walker · August 31, 2012, 9:51am

Thanks boss :57: lol