as for the EURUSD; there is no clear trend in this market. Yes this is a clear momentum lower with price making a clear down leg and the bears taking full control in the recent few weeks, but there is not a clear trend.
Neither the bulls nor bears are in control. We do not have either making higher highs and higher lows or lower highs and lower lows.
What we are clearly in is a range and clear sideways action. Because of this I am happy to trade both sides of the market give then right high probability setup.
So to answer your question; given the right setup I will trade both long and short given the right setup. For example I will go long, but I am going to need to see a high probability setup. I am not going to trade a random engulfing bar in the middle of no where, but I am going to trade an engulfing bar that is from a key area that is from a key fibo level or round number etc
As for the USDJPY I talk about it tonight in the charts in focus section.
Yes, I see your pointā¦ While this line isnāt exactly powerful, it is very close to reversal! It is good there are still several hours to think it through, hmm:44:
Iāve recently discovered this thread after completing the school of pipsology and really like the simplicity of looking at PA rather than indicators that seemed to have ābustedā by the time the entry has been reached.
I want to read the 1st hundred pages of the thread before I get too involved and am on the 12th page at the moment. Iām also considering joining as a member but will wait until Iāve hit the 100 page mark.
For now I have 3 questions if anyone can help me: -
Is there any reason you stop on the 1hr chart? Could these signals be traded down to a 15m entry window?
Are these signals suitable for all markets? Specifically Iām looking at Forex, Indicies and commodities?
Does anyone post regular set ups? Iāve started marking up my charts with where I think support and resistance lines are and it would be good to bounce these ideas off other people.
Iāve recently discovered this thread after [B]completing the school of pipsology[/B] and really like the simplicity of looking at PA rather than indicators that seemed to have ābustedā by the time the entry has been reached.
[B]I want to read the 1st hundred pages of the thread[/B] before I get too involved and am on the 12th page at the moment. Iām also considering joining as a member but will wait until Iāve hit the 100 page mark.
Goodstuff! Thatās the sort of hard work that pays off around here
For now I have 3 questions if anyone can help me: -
Is there any reason you stop on the 1hr chart? Could these signals be traded down to a 15m entry window?
The signals are just not as reliable under H1 ( and even for H1, the PA signal has to be REALLY big & obvious )
H4 and above is swell
Are these signals suitable for all markets? Specifically Iām looking at Forex, Indicies and commodities?
YES! Works for all markets
Remember that the point of an edge is to show you the tracks of those moving price, and their behavior tends to be similar (being human and all). The logic creating a pinbar at key horizontal level is same whether the market is CORN or EURUSD.
Does anyone post regular set ups? Iāve started marking up my charts with where I think support and resistance lines are and it would be good to bounce these ideas off other people.
Thanks in advance for your help.
Posting regular setups & bouncing off ideas is VERY MUCH ENCOURAGED & VERY WELCOME.
There is a clear bullish false break pin bar on the GBPJPY D1 chart but because of the choppy area there is no clearly defined S&R level so it,s an easy pass for me.
I dont think you are in a major area there.
You should look for signals in major areas, and from what I see you are in the middle of the range of the previos 2 weeks.
A good indication of a pin is that you have room to the left, meaning that is printed in a place price have not seen in the last days.
I dont think you are in a major area there.
You should look for signals in major areas, and from what I see you are in the middle of the range of the previos 2 weeks.
A good indication of a pin is that you have room to the left, meaning that is printed in a place price have not seen in the last days.
Just my 2 centsā¦
I would not take it as a strong PA signal.
Regards,
PipDom[/QUOTE]
I agree, even though itās a nice pin itās not at great level and for johnos PA method the signal and the level both have to be spot on, if it was lower you couldāve range traded it by using two positions instead of the normal 3 but it isnt
My first attempt at putting a chart up so please bear with me.
This is a EURGBP 240 chart which seems to have broken through a significant resistance level. If Iāve understood this correctly I am now waiting for a pull back to the previous resistance level, which may become support, and then looking for a PA signal of strength in a move back upwards eg PB or BUEB.
[QUOTE=āMatthgm;507230ā]My first attempt at putting a chart up so please bear with me.
This is a EURGBP 240 chart which seems to have broken through a significant resistance level. If Iāve understood this correctly I am now waiting for a pull back to the previous resistance level, which may become support, and then looking for a PA signal of strength in a move back upwards eg PB or BUEB.
Thanks guys, Iāve had a bit of trouble picking the support & resistance levels, but this was about the most obvious. Iāll post some other efforts up tomorrow
To me it looks like almost perfect setups but so far AUDCHF hasnāt been hit and CHFJPY has gone the other way and Iām currently around minus 40 pips. Obviously every transaction doesnāt turn out the way you want but I thought Iād ask you if you have any objections.
personally i wouldnt have taken either of these, although the engulfing bars are both technically validd neither of them are particularly big when compared to the previous bars on your chart
the CHFJPY trade in particular is not in a great area, the is a lot of boxing at the same level and its in the middle of a range, there at best a 50% chance this will reverse and, personally, because of the boxing at the entry i would say a greater chance it will continue down
just my thoughts though mate and good luck with both of them
For AUD/CHF, is currently consolidating, and made a higher low, āpossiblyā the end of the down trend (could be heading into a trend-reversal), the BEEB looks good but with the factor i just mentioned, Iāll pass on this one.
For CHF/JPY, Bulls are surely gaining momentum here, but price are too choppy on the left, has to break through all the traffic on the left to make a higher high. BOJ meeting this week could be the catalyst you need to push through the congestion area, but I will also pass this one.
PS. If you really want to trade the CHF/JPY, why not trade USD/JPY on a dip as USD is clearly in uptrend?? (Just my opinion)
Guys, I have a question (of rather theoretical nature) that tortures me for some timeā¦
While reading different forums on PA Iāve noticed (several times already) some questionable idea.
In a nutshell - suppose by using 1:1 RR ratio you initially have 50% chance of success. Now, by following the trend alone(!) you receive another consistent + 5% or 10% of success - even if youāre not using anything else. Then placing SR lines - and making trades from them - will also gives you + 5% or 10% (even if you wouldnāt use any sort of entry signals, like candle signals). Candle signals will give you another - +5% or 20%, but even without them you already have a strong edge. So, my doubt is: this is too simple. I mean - even a child (with some practice) could spot a trend and SR lines - and, according to this idea, this alone can give you at least 60% of success consistently.
I would presume different scenario - following a trend alone doesnāt give any consistent edge (even a small one), placing trades around relevant SR area alone canāt give a consistent edge (even with the trend). Only when a trader follows the trend AND place a trade at a relevant SR zone AND only when correct signal is spotted - then chances will turn in his favor.
Now, could some of you guys comment on this, please;) Especially most experienced of you. Iāve been thinking about this for several weeks now, but because of lack of experience canāt understand if my objection is correct or not.
Good on you for making the switch from lurking to posting
IMHO, CHFJPY setup was in no manās land, i.e, not formed at a key level. Also CHFJPY is rather choppy right nowā¦
AUDCHF looks the better of the two, and I think may have had a chance of working out.
[ Iām personally waiting for price to get to BRN 0.9000 before looking for shorts ]
Thankfully, youāve not been entered in the AUDCHF (which has hit āSLā). Hope the CHFJPY climbs for you!
I reply you, but Iām not experienced much (only 1 year live after month spent on demo).
There are more factors, e.g. money management, you have to limit yourself with SL, so even if you are right with the trend, signal and SR, some trades may stop you out and then turn back and go in your favor, next factor may be that you need quite a lot samples, if you have 50% win R, you may lose 15 of 20, but at 100 samples it may be 50/100.
As you said, it seems to be that simple and I believe it is, but then psychological ills come to play and you may over trade, over analyze, take setups which are nearly perfect but you donāt want to miss them out, so you enter even you know they arenāt 100%. I also have experience with this kind of situation, I spot possible setup, then I get greedy and start to think about possible reward and I start convice myself that the trade is valid and after I get stopped out, I realize the trade was completely again trend etc.
I wonāt talk about not managing risk and risk different amounts on every trade, or just bang 20% at some trade killer which has to be winner etc.
Then comes in to play trade management which I consider as one of the most important things which make or break you. You can place random trades and you may make or lose depending on how you manage these trades.
And the last thing is, that every setup could end as looser, even the best looking PA setup with trend from key support at 100.00.
As for me, 1:1 seems as small ratio to me, but itās all about the equation win R and RRR, if you have big RRR your win R will decrease and if you will have big win R, you will have lower RRR. I think itās trading is especially number and psychological game which seems pretty easy to excel at (especially on demo) but itās different story when going live with your real money.
I suppose, I did not answer you much, but at least I described my point of view at trading in general.
