[QUOTE=“Kasravi;537653”] Thanks a lot buddy. I look at that level,then I look at that juicy Pin…then I think to myself: My data feed says YES. How come the rest of the providers say No? I understand unity is of the Essence,specially because it closed bloody sharp, the difference btw. our feeds is very much noticeable in this case. Any thoughts on Usd/Nok weekly? Cheers[/QUOTE]
I spotted that setup too
Looks good to me.
At a good level
Sticks out
Closes within previous candle
Wick 3x length of body
Price has made a lower high, but lower prices are being clearly rejected, so its valid in my books.
having traded exclusively on the weekly charts for a while now, i can say for sure that you can bend the pa spec a little and maintain an edge
for instance, the usdcad that you say is out of spec is only out of spec by 2 pips. 2 pips out of spec on lower time frames may lose the edge but on the weekly it is very valid. add to that trend and s/r confluence and there is no need to be so picky about spec
on the weekly, after a strong move of one party in control, when a reversal candle is then printed (and for arguments sake lets say this candle is within spec according to johns daily pa spec requirements), this is very strong evidence of a reversal. the opposing party that was getting clobbered for the past however many weeks, finally got control back for an entire week. two pip out of spec here and there should not mean missing out on highly probable trading opportunities imo
i would like to say thanks for pointing this usdcad trade out(also usdnok, i wish my broker offered it), i will be trying to get in on some upward movement this week. the only other pairs showing weekly setups on my charts are eurgbp/gbpchf and maybe eurcad/cadchf. it is nice trading the weeklies because i will only need to watch these pairs this week and not be looking for any other setups
I was looking at USDNOK on daily chart adn there was a nice pin. I didn’t take it because it had closed below my S/R line. However, I looked at the weekly last night and the pin is really good. It’s just matter of finding how much the spread will be. If you look at the left.
[QUOTE=“Pips Ahoy!;537658”] having traded exclusively on the weekly charts for a while now, i can say for sure that you can bend the pa spec a little and maintain an edge for instance, the usdcad that you say is out of spec is only out of spec by 2 pips. 2 pips out of spec on lower time frames may lose the edge but on the weekly it is very valid. add to that trend and s/r confluence and there is no need to be so picky about spec on the weekly, after a strong move of one party in control, when a reversal candle is then printed (and for arguments sake lets say this candle is within spec according to johns daily pa spec requirements), this is very strong evidence of a reversal. the opposing party that was getting clobbered for the past however many weeks, finally got control back for an entire week. two pip out of spec here and there should not mean missing out on highly probable trading opportunities imo i would like to say thanks for pointing this usdcad trade out(also usdnok, i wish my broker offered it), i will be trying to get in on some upward movement this week. the only other pairs showing weekly setups on my charts are eurgbp/gbpchf and maybe eurcad/cadchf. it is nice trading the weeklies because i will only need to watch these pairs this week and not be looking for any other setups[/QUOTE]
I fully agree with bending the rules here for the sake of 2 pips.
I have traded weekly charts for a good while also and know this to be correct, but if it doesn’t qualify in a traders plan, then thats their own decision not to take the trade. Good knowledge is built up over years of trading and recognising setups, not just a read through a forum thread, though this thread has really changed my trading style and i am really grateful to everyone who offers advice and johno for starting it
Saw that daily pin on thrs. too.But as you said closed too low, never even considered it.
In terms of spread, Usd/Nok and Sek are funny.
Reasonably they should lie in the 15-25 pip area, but with a pip value that low and first trouble area that far there shouldn’t be much to worry about.
So why even bother having a set of rules then? Might as well say 2 pips, 20 pips, 200 pips if I like the signal I will trade it regardless.
Having a strict set of rules is an absolute must, particularly for the newer trader.
The problem with breaking a rule is you do it once and then where do you stop? First time out it is only 2 pips and the trade is successful.
Then the next time the PB is invalid by say only 5 pips and you go to yourself “well that trade that I took where it was only 2 pips out worked so I will take this one as well.”
This trade is also successful and then another trade comes along and the PB is invalid by 9 pips and you think “well the last 2 came off so I guess I’ll have a go at this one…”
And you have a 200 pip loser.
My point is you have to draw a line [I]somewhere[/I], and once you have drawn it you have to [I]strictly[/I] stick to it.
The rules as per what Johno teaches is that if it is invalid (even by 1 pip) it is invalid and it is no trade. [B][I]No exceptions.[/I][/B]
You may have a different set of rules which work for you and that is great, but I would respectfully suggest they are completely at odds with what is being advocated/taught here.
If you have an ever changing set of rules, you won’t be able to find the weaknesses in your trading method. I can just about guarantee anyone who claims success this way has never traded this way long enough to see how it averages out. Usually someone gets crazy and breaks a rule and it happens to be a winner once or twice, so they adopt it into their method.
Let me get nerdy for a second. Confidence interval math says 100 samples give you a margin of error of 10%. Using that in trading tells me that if I traded the exact same way 100 times, that I have about 90% confidence that is what my results will be with that method. 1,000 samples gives you a 3% margin of error. All of that being said, most people trade 3 times, change their method, trade 5 more times, break the rules, trade 2 more times, change another method, etc etc.
You need to ground yourself in a solid method with clear cut rules and trade it for months to get an idea of the results. Breaking rules and getting a good trade once or twice is no where near the reality of what will happen in the long run if you keep doing that. I know I keep harping on it, but it seems so many people are discontent with stick to a few basic rules in Johnathons method. While it doesn’t seem like it now, statistically if you let Mr J’s method play out it is much more lucrative than a shooting from the hip trading method.
i assume you were talking about the weekly chart because that is what i am talking about, there is no mystery about spec correctness, probability just does not go out the window because of a few pips difference in pa spec. a strong signal, after a strong run, resting at a good s/r level, with the trend, that is the most important part. and that also goes for the other times frames
i am talking about weekly charts, i have to say it again now, i am talking about the weekly charts. ahem…on the weekly charts… a few pips out of spec will not make a difference. and on top of that, entering at candle open/close is perfectly fine and will put you closer to the beginning of the reversal
Yep I fully realize that you are talking about the Weekly and I also accept that this may work for you, but [I][B]as per this thread[/B][/I] the rule is 2 pips, 20 pips if the PB is invalid it is invalid.
I also accept as an experienced trader you may feel a certain level of discretion, and please notice that I am careful to say if it works for you then great.
However what you also have to realize is the reason this thread has worked for over a 1000 pages is that Johno has posted a method with a few basic rules and insists that people who want to trade this particular brand of PA sticks rigidly to this method.
I also think that it is dangerous for newer traders who are learning how to trrde PA start saying to themselves “well in this case I don’t think the rules matter.”
I accept it might be frustrating for someone like yourself, but Johno has been very clear time and time again what his rules are regarding PB’s regardless of TF.
To be honest there is some advanced stuff that I like to do outside of the parameters of this thread as well, stuff that I have learned over time but in trying to maintain the integrity of the thread and of Johno’s method I think [B][I]in here[/I][/B] we really do try and stick to what is taught.
But please keep contributing, I have seen you around these boards for a long time and value what you have to say.
i will also be honest and admit that i have had not the best luck trading pa on the daily, in spite of following this thread since spring of 2012. i didn’t realize i had not been successful for almost a year, then i googled price action trading and found a super simple way to trade the weekly which is the method taught here to a ‘t’, except less strict pa spec rules and entry is on the weekly open/close and not the high/low. everything seemed to just work all of a sudden
i think i should attribute this to my near year on the daily charts. i think i mapped into my subconscious the price movements and speed of the daily to the point where switching to weekly seemed to just click. more relaxed, things happen more slowly, more time to act/react.
also important for me and something i worried about when i first took babypips school, was the scale of the charts were always changing when you scroll, that really bugged me out at first because i wanted to have a scale view in my mind of the charts. maybe spending time looking at the charts helped with that i don’t know
and then i stumble on to another system that’s radically different than price action trading and replaces all trading methods before it and, well…that’s the fun part though(!)
i am always glad that everything started for me with pure price action trading and this thread though, much more demo trading to be done : )
Keep at it mate, if you can succeed with pretty much this method on the Weekly then it should work fine on the Daily. Like you have alluded to it must be something in your subconscious that is preventing similar success on the D1.
Trading is such a mind game. But that is also why J is so strict about the rules, they are also there to keep traders from sabotaging themselves.
But stick to Price Action, it is all you will ever need! Often traders give up without realizing how close they are to making it all work.
I like this way of thinking, Bryce. This is also something that I am planning to do once I fully master what Johnathon is teaching in this thread. I want to have strong basic understanding about Price Action as my background, and from there I want to develop my own trading style. I always believe that the most successful trader is the one who is honest about his/her own trading style and how that really fits into his/her own character.
Coming from stock investing background, this discussion reminds me about the comparison of Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffet. FYI, people always refer to Benjamin Graham as the Father of Value Investing, and his book ‘[I]Intelligent Investor[/I]’ as the best investing references of all time. His best protegee is Warren Buffet, one of the richest man in the world. But does that mean Buffet has the identical investing style with Graham? [B]Heck no!![/B] By all means, many things that Buffet has done as an investor would be considered [B][U]blasphemous[/U][/B] from Graham POV, but Buffet has shown us that his investing method also works extraordinarily well! That doesn’t mean that either Graham or Buffet is wrong. I personally like to think that both men are correct in their own way. There’s more than one way to skin a cat, you told me that Bryce.
However, I also agree with you that as this is Johnathon’s thread and he has defined such clear rules of Price Action trading strategy, let’s all maintain the integrity of the thread and of Johnathon’s method I think [B][I]in here[/I][/B] we really do try and stick to what is taught.
PS: I actually like your strategy, Pips Ahoy. I really do. I will take a closer look of that swing strategy once I master what Johnathon is teaching at FSO. In the mean time, if you open a new thread focusing on that sole strategy, you may even start something impressive like what Johnathon has done here.
Thanks all for your feedback about the GBPCHF analysis, added some stuff to my trade plan.
I was focusing too much on the Low of the “BEEB” that I did not quite notice that the High was not fully engulfing… so no BEEB, check!
One question to Kasravi (or someone else who feels about replying) about setting S/L when trading on weekly… I think I read somewhere in this thread that when managing from weekly, it should not be necessary to put S/L on top of high/low (which we usually do when trading D1 or lower TF’s), but that halfway the candle is a valid option as well. Is this a matter of personal preference (more room vs worse RRR) or are there guidelines for this?
Thanks again, reading and participating in this thread makes PA trading so much more fun!
Ref USD/CAD weekly I know it has been discussed but wanted to add that on my broker (RoboForex) it closed within the previous candle so I will be taking the trade.
I have identified an entry point (Green @ 1.0351) SL (Red @ 1.0176) and 3 TP (Yellow 1.0442 / 1.0556 / 1.0583)
As a rule of thumb,you can determine your stop loss in various ways on the chart,
1- is simply putting it behind high or low of your candle,
In this type of stop loss you are convinced that if price moves beyond that level your setup is out of play.
2-leaving your stop behind the initial support or resistance,
In that scenario you want to stay in that trade as long as it is contained within your levels,for you are convinced if that level is breached your high or low of the candle will too.
Now to what you mentioned. Good Weekly signals range usually 300 pips +. Therefore you would want to look for alternative stop loss techniques like you just mentioned. I cannot recall where it had been mentioned in this thread but if you read that ‘‘leaving a stop loss on %50 of your candle is valid’’ , then that would be a 3rd option available to you.
That Gbp/chf BEEB as discussed is not a valid setup. But leave your stop loss at a reasonable level once you spot a valid setup.
Let the chart tell you where to S/L not the money.
Although we have different brokers, I thought I’d add some perspective as to what I “see” too. This is a grey-area trade for me, and one that I will not be taking. It is so close to being an A+ setup, but “close” isn’t good enough.
This would have been a no-brainer to me, because of the almost perfect fakey setup. The low of the mother candle (big bullish one) was taken out and formed PB candle (per your chart). Price tested previous support, rejected it, and closed above a key horizontal level, leaving room for a nice tight stop as well. Talk about a close-one!!!
Just be careful though, because it may take weeks for this trade to play out, and thats assuming the 10+ pip buffer of the PB is broken. Just watch out for rollover charges that can add up.
Gotta look forward though, and know that this setup will come another day, and when it does…the snipers will emerge. I saw something cool online relating to forex trading, the advice was: “Trade like a sniper, not a machine gunner”. This has no relation to the setup you’ve identified, but I thought I’d just share :).
Thank you for your input, there is however the part related to the bottom of the mother candle being taken out that I didn’t quite understand. What’s the importance?
Also I know that in this thread an A+ setup have about 85 - 90% success rate.
If this is not an A+ setup can it be an A one with, say, 70 - 80% probability?
